It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[favebook]

Could you please give me more information about this place of Serbia? Thank you in advanced.

As noted by stompix, I do not really know why would you even be interested in a place like that. I might have presented it like a good place for mining (which I doubt as I reread my posts), but believe me, it is NOT. I'd rather go to hell than to go there tbh. No profit is worth losing your head over for. Remember this:

... no point investing in a barrel that is already on fire.

Besides, to answer two weeks later the who's paying the bill question a bit, we (the EU) were supposed to fund that, one thing I know is we paid for it, if the Serbs have received any, that's a different story.

I am not up to date with what is going on with that part of our country and who owes whom what. So I can neither confirm nor deny that any money changed hands. I just know that there is a huge influx of people contacting me to buy insane number of miners asap.

But as this is diff thread, there is no point continuing this conversation here. We seem to be stagnating a bit, around -2% adjustment is expected this Sunday. I like to see red adjustments .

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[mikeywith]

Unlike MZ4 I have no interest in mining in Kosovo, but I do think it's right on topic, if mining is free there, then there must be a ton of mining gears adding up to total hasharte, which has everything to do with that we are discussing, when the rainy season is over in certain parts of China or when the electricity rate goes up in some places, the difficulty is effected big time, so if the Kosovo region issue is settled and miners can no longer use the electricity for free, they will have to shut down which means a difficulty drop incoming, so I would personally love to keep the Kosovo thing updated in this thread from time to time.

We seem to be stagnating a bit, around -2% adjustment is expected this Sunday. I like to see red adjustments .

Red adjustments are great when they show up on the difficulty, not so great when they show on the price chart.

[stompix]

Unlike MZ4 I have no interest in mining in Kosovo, but I do think it's right on topic...

I think favebook was referring to the second part of my post, the one about who paid who and who gets what, and yeah, as a fellow east European, I can say that we better keep that subject away, scars from the war and stuff that comes with it have not been erased and won't be soon. There a lot of religion, race, nationality stuff there, let's keep that in the P&S.

But back to the speculation about the difficulty, I've been asking my self a lot of times something about the old gear that is supposed to come online if it gets profitable again, I've dug around a bit, including your topic about the s9k and the one about the failure rate of the s17 and I'm wondering this old gear, how much of it is it still capable of mining? We know what hashrate we had at the launch of a new generation like the s17 or the s19, we could approximate thus how much each new wave has brought in, but what is the decay rate in this?

I've tried searching around but the keywords are too simple, the results are nowhere what I was looking for, so can anyone come with a number, even if not backed by personal experience? What amount of the current hash rate will burn in the next 12 months due to failures? I mean, we always hear this, old miners being plugging in, ok, this might work once, but if we have a new price rise in 4 or 8 years from now on, the s9 will be theoretically profitable again, will there be more than 1000 pieces capable of mining in the whole world?

Red adjustments are great when they show up on the difficulty, not so great when they show on the price chart.

Unless you're in China or Japan, where a red candle is good  

[favebook]

Indeed, I was referring to political stuff which I do not want to discuss.

Kosovo might be related to diff but as I noted in my previous posts here, I doubt it has more than 0.5% of total BTC hashrate. As people in Serbia are generally not in top of the top when it comes to the wealth. Wealthiest persons here might not be close to someone in high class in other countries. Therefore I doubt that much money is poured into ASICs as it is a "new technology" after all and people here are skeptical more than anywhere else. Bitcoin was pyramid scheme in eyes of many when I tried to explain it to people back in 2015. Nowadays, it's a bit better but still, ASICs are like alien technology to many here.

I've tried searching around but the keywords are too simple, the results are nowhere what I was looking for, so can anyone come with a number, even if not backed by personal experience? What amount of the current hash rate will burn in the next 12 months due to failures? I mean, we always hear this, old miners being plugging in, ok, this might work once, but if we have a new price rise in 4 or 8 years from now on, the s9 will be theoretically profitable again, will there be more than 1000 pieces capable of mining in the whole world?

Well, from my 5 year experience with them. They are either dying in few months and lasting up to a year or two OR they do not even break. I still know a guy who bought an S9 from me back in 2016/2017 and it still works perfectly (of course, on Kosovo). Now, I know he hasn't overclocked it rather, he downclocked it a bit during the red times (BTC ~ $4k). But after so many years of working perfectly, I'd argue that PSU will stop being fully operational much before hashboards.

Red adjustments are great when they show up on the difficulty, not so great when they show on the price chart.

I do not like them either, but still, I'd rather see diff drop before next bull run even if that means that we have to go through some red candles.

[mikeywith]

I've been asking my self a lot of times something about the old gear that is supposed to come online if it gets profitable again, I've dug around a bit, including your topic about the s9k and the one about the failure rate of the s17 and I'm wondering this old gear, how much of it is it still capable of mining? We know what hashrate we had at the launch of a new generation like the s17 or the s19, we could approximate thus how much each new wave has brought in, but what is the decay rate in this?

That is a tough question to answer, and there isn't really a confirmed answer, for the 17 series I can speak with a high level of confidence that the failure rate is 30% easily, this isn't based only on my own experience but it's the opinion of large miners in China who reported these results, even Jihan Wu admitted how terrible the quality on those gears was and he blamed Micree for that, I made a whole post regarding that subject look it around.

For obvious reasons, many of those 17 series have been fixed, so we can't say 30% of them are out of the game, other gears like the S9 can easily last for 2 years before requiring major maintenance, the S9e and S9k are terrible gears and I would guess that a large % of them are now paperweight because it costs a lot to fix them compared to their actual value.

There are many factors involved, but if I have to give you a wild guess, I would say that the mining community loses anywhere between 10-15% of the total hashrate every year (compared to the hashrate of the preceding year), which includes gears dying, warehouses catching fire, miners require special PSU that is not easy to source, overclocking aka overcooking, confiscation, floods, and etc.

[philipma1957]

I have a working model 1 s-9 2 of 3 boards still mine I got it back in 2016 before the 1/2 ing.

I have a working Avalon 721 I got it back in feb 2016

Both were under clocked and never pushed hard or hot.

All 17 s17pros still work 1 psu needed replacement
17 x 53 = 901 th does 930 th as some work on turbo

my what's miner gear is meh.

20s has bad chips and only does 39th using a lot of power and it burns out psu's
m10 has 2 boards works okay on normal
m10 has 3 boards works okay on low
20s was great it got wet in a rainstorm now has 2 boards still great. the rainstorm killed multiple pieces of gear.
21s was doing only 2 boards at 29th it died in the rain storm.

so
2x 20s from may of 2019 1 was good 1 was meh and would kill psu's
1x 21s from august 2019 was 29th not 50th
2 m10s from dec 2018 five of six boards still work  doing 40th vs 60th

so if all was working they would be doing 250th they are doing 105th

my Avalon
2x 50th 1066 on works 1 has dead psu Avalon never got one for me blokforge never got on for me
3x 30th 1041. one was doa but 2 work fine not sure how the doa died I will blame me or the us post office not Avalon

so I will say 160th is now 110th

2 t17e
1 t17+
3 t17 all good

3 s15 all good needed 1 replacement psu
1 t15 all good

s9's and l3's have been a mix and match for so long I don't remember how to rate them in terms of how they last.


merged some posts

this was Dec 13

We will be negative this jump

price is 19350+ at Coinbase

Latest Block:   661177  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   96.6853%  (1946 / 2012.71 expected, 66.71 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   17596801059571.43
Current Difficulty:   19157154724710.14
Next Difficulty:   between 18523818255238 and 18524556612135
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.3060% and -3.3022%
Previous Retarget:   November 29, 2020 at 8:39 AM  (+8.8673%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 8:10 PM  (in 0d 12h 3m 9s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 8:11 PM  (in 0d 12h 3m 59s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 11h 30m 18s and 14d 11h 31m 8s

This is Dec 14

Up date we dropped -2.541/b]% to 18.6701t

We are on pace to drop again

Also coins are at 19,200 these numbers are not as good as July 2019 from the mining profit viewpoint.

Latest Block:   661344  (10 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   94.5996%  (97 / 102.54 expected, 5.54 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   19157154724710.14
Current Difficulty:   18670168558399.59
Next Difficulty:   between 17961446007023 and 18601237933069
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.7960% and -0.3692%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 5:27 PM  (-2.5421%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 27, 2020 at 7:15 PM  (in 13d 8h 42m 42s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 28, 2020 at 12:38 PM  (in 14d 2h 5m 29s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 48m 5s and 14d 19h 10m 52s

It is early but a -2% drop and pushing past 20k   would be a very nice ending for the shit year of 2020

[HagssFIN]

@Phil
We're now pushing past the 20k ! 

[philipma1957]

Woke up late looked at 20400 at Coinbase and prompts sold

$250 worth of coin

diff is good

Latest Block:   661626  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.9778%  (379 / 382.91 expected, 3.91 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   19157154724710.14
Current Difficulty:   18670168558399.59
Next Difficulty:   between 18562224326257 and 18633256690923
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.5782% and -0.1977%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 5:27 PM  (-2.5421%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 27, 2020 at 6:38 PM  (in 11d 9h 21m 46s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 27, 2020 at 8:55 PM  (in 11d 11h 39m 3s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 10m 55s and 14d 3h 28m 11s

How high do we go price wise

well:

28-30k matches July 2019 price of 13k  for most mining farms
70-85k matches Dec 2017 price of 19.6k for most mining farms

Better to go sideways from now until my Jan 27th birthday I think diff will finally go upwards past 20.0 if we stay at 20-21 usd price for next 42 days.

Then maybe we go upwards in price beyond 30k.

[stompix]

I'm genuinely laughing right now  

Price on July 15 ~  9241 difficulty 17,345,948,872,516. Price right now  ~ 20700 difficulty 18,670,168,558,399.

Although the price more than doubled, mikeywith was off with his top difficulty prediction by only 7%, on the other hand, I'm off by 208%. Adding insult to injury we're looking at another negative adjustment even as we speak, although it's just 8 blocks behind and only two days have passed.

So, bottom line, right now I can't think of any other explanation other than the lack of actual gear, probably there is simply no mining gear available to keep the hashrate going up and at the same time some is not mining because it's either locked in warehouses that have stopped receiving cheap energy (the ones in Yunnan we discussed earlier) and they are to selling their gear or it hasn't reached the new customers. Probably very good news for miners right now, they can get some serious rewards with little to fear that the difficulty with suddenly spike up, no matter how many want to get into mining, they simply can't. Merry Christmas, isn't it?

LE: And thank you guys for sharing your experience about the mining gear failure rates, next time I'll start babbling around I will take two moments and take that into consideration also  

[philipma1957]

Yeah
70 - 46  = 23th
70 - 39  = 21th
50 - 0    = 50th
50 - 0    = 50th
30 - 17  = 13th
30 - 27  = 3th

I am short 160th. that is $23.20 a day.

[mikeywith]

One more thing to keep in mind is that many old gears are "stuck" in the "wrong" place, think of the guy who owns old gears such as 80w/th efficient and worse, that guy had to turn off his mining gears during the 2018 crash, that guy is located in Europe or in Newzealand where the power rate is 8-10 cents per kwh, selling his old gears means he has to ship them overseas, the price of shipping to where power is low enough to accept those gears is out of the question, so what does he do? turn them off and leave them be.

I would guess that there is at least 5-10EH of those guys, and they will eventually come back online as the price moves higher.

Another thing is dead gears that can be fixed for really cheap like the S9s, I personally have a lot of broken gears that I just don't want to fix now because it isn't worth it, but when and if bitcoin price is at say 50k I will take "fixing mining" as my primary daily job and fix every hash board I have.

The good news is those gears are small and thousands of them need to come online before they start affecting the difficulty badly, what worries me is the Jan-March 5nm gears that are going to be shipped, those gears are 100th on average, but until then, let's enjoy.

[philipma1957]

21.3k is getting close to first tipping point

which is 28-30k = 2019 july mining profits

next one would be 70-80k = 2017 december mining profits.

[mikeywith]

Just to add more information to this since I believe many people who are not really into the difficulty thing don't understand what the means, below is the "profitability" chart:



https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-mining_profitability.html

The idea is very simple, Profitblity = USD income per TH of hashrate, the worst it has ever been was on 18/10/2020 (exactly 2 months ago), a TH would gain only 0.063$, we are now kind of doing a lot better at 0.14$.

July 2019 it was about 0.5$ per TH, that will be 70k and not 30k, can you double-check the maths on your side?

[philipma1957]

I estimate gear efficient in july 2019 at 80 watts. for whole network

I estimate gear at 45 watts now.

I used 4-6 cent power.

your estimate is perfectly accurate for no cost power.

my estimate differs with ballbark figures

for network efficiency.

and ball park numbers for power.

[stompix]

Just to add more information to this since I believe many people who are not really into the difficulty thing don't understand what the means, below is the "profitability" chart

I assume you got this from
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-mining_profitability.html
If it's true then I am wondering if it's not something wrong with the graph. Nope, something is wrong with my memory.!

Looking at the January-March period, the hashrate was around 100-120 Exa, the price was ~10k range, profitability ~0.15
Now we have 130-140 Exa, price over 20k, profitability ~ ~0.14.
Am I missing something as it doesn't make sense at first glance?!

LE:
Thanks, philipma1957
Wow, how time flies, I forgot about the halving already, and how much I've been discussing it myself. Facepalm!!!
Yeah, makes total sense now.

[philipma1957]

the 1/2ing is factored in jan 2020 to march 2020 bigger blocks so .15  now bigger price less coin so .14

A block in feb 2020 was 12.5 at 10k
a block in dec 2020 is 6.25 at 23k

diff is higher now.  we are very equal to  10k in feb 2020

we are still less then July 2019 at 13k.

the chart does not use network's watt per th efficiency I estimate

2019 July 80  watts a th
2020 Feb 55   watts a th
2020 Dec 42? watts a th

the charts do not factor in power. I played with 0 ,2 ,4 ,6, 8 cents

it is very hard to be exact but we certainly have not reached

my Dec 2020 28-30k =  July 2019 13k estimate which could be low.

that chart leaves out  a lot of factors and comes up with 40-50k now = 13k July 2019

it is too high.  Most likely my 28-30k is too low.

I leaned towards 42-45 watts and 6 cent power. on average for the network.

to be safe lowest range possible is 25k highest range is 45k
either way

we could not hold the price of 13k in July 2019
we could not hold the price of 19.9k in Dec 2017

btw. diff was tiny  in 2017 around 8x lower than now.

and blocks were 12.5. so by diff 8 x 19.9= 159.2k /2 = 79.6k  a very rough idea of what we need to be to be at 2017.

the network then was likely 130watts a th it is now likely 42-45 watts a th.

for  a 0 ,1, 2 power guy so what
for a 3,4,5 cent guy it starts to matter
for a 6,7,8 cent guy it really matters.

the charts leave out efficiency and power cost

they use diff, price, block size

if you are a free power guy they are all you need.

If you pay for power you need to try to use your efficiency and your power per kwatts.

diff is now -4%+
coins are 23000+

so Merry Christmas!

Happy Hanukkah!

or any other religion or holiday.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Phil - any further word on that 1066 PSU? One of the Kanopool users on Discord just received 3 PSU's for his through Jason from Canaan. He had one die a while ago and ordered 2 extra as spares along with the 1 provided under warrenty.

[mikeywith]

I assume you got this from
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-mining_profitability.html

Yes you are right, I forgot to add the link, I also changed some of the settings to get a better view/representation, changed from linear to log, and limited the duration to only 3 years, the default chart is a mess.

I estimate gear at 45 watts now.

My guess is that the average is a bit more than that for now, I would take T17 as the average market gear for 2020, which puts us somewhere around 55 watts, what makes you think 45 watts is the average network efficiency?

[philipma1957]

Phil - any further word on that 1066 PSU? One of the Kanopool users on Discord just received 3 PSU's for his through Jason from Canaan. He had one die a while ago and ordered 2 extra as spares along with the 1 provided under warrenty.

No one ever got back to me. Would be nice to buy one ☝️.

@ mikeywith I am not sure with my 45 watt guess.

My setup has around 1.7 or 1.8 ph that is at least 45 watts a th.

I think if your power is super cheap 80 Watt gear still works.

If your power is 6 cents you want under 50 watt gear.

It is very hard to know how many
s17
s17pro
m20s
m30s
s19
s19pro. are mining vs the higher watt gear.

for me to say you are wrong with a 55 watt guess
and i am right with a 45 watt guess would be silly on my part.

I don’t know and since I have the 50-50 coinsplit I lean towards 45 watts.

I know you have good power deals so you lean towards 55 watts.

Since more gear is in asia than north america you may be closer to the true number.

Well we cracked 25k on Christmas Day (eastern standard time)

and we are - diff. of -.05 %

Latest Block:   662998  (a minute ago)
Current Pace:   99.4139%  (1751 / 1761.32 expected, 10.32 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   19157154724710.14
Current Difficulty:   18670168558399.59
Next Difficulty:   between 18578772087573 and 18580343700611
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.4895% and -0.4811%
Previous Retarget:   December 13, 2020 at 5:27 PM  (-2.5421%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 7:24 PM  (in 1d 20h 23m 34s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 7:26 PM  (in 1d 20h 25m 37s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 56m 48s and 14d 1h 58m 51s

it is actually getting a little bit too good to be true.
But WTF let us enjoy it.

[stompix]

You've got a nice Christmas present (the other miners too), and probably a bonus next week . Since the last adjustment down 2.5% the price went up by nearly 5k, and looking at the difficulty it's going to be almost for certain negative, it's hovering around -0.9%. Considering Christmas and New Years' Eve it's highly unlikely that some mining farm will suddenly bring to life a batch of 10k miners in the next epoch, so, another 14 days of happy mining?!?

I've been checking the pool stats to see if anything is changing there and to my surprise on the 7d vs 1/3 month period antpool is actually losing shares, so does poolin, so bitmain isn't doing anything even with these prices? Not shipping, not mining for themselves, are they really unable to get chips or whatever is stopping them? Pretty weird since I'm reading in the news everybody is buying gear:

Riot Purchases Additional 15,000 Mining Machines From Bitmain
Core Scientific Buys Over 58,000 Bitmain S19 Antminers

So, where the * is that gear? I'm pretty sure a lot of people would love to hear it's on the bottom of the ocean