El duderino_ (OP)
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 2492
Merit: 11985
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
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January 03, 2020, 12:41:18 AM
Last edit: January 03, 2020, 12:59:29 AM by micgoossens Merited by TheArchaeologist (6), Globb0 (5), krogothmanhattan (5), LFC_Bitcoin (4), LoyceV (4), 1miau (4), malevolent (3), BitcoinPenny (3), DdmrDdmr (3), o_e_l_e_o (3), vapourminer (2), SFR10 (2), Hhampuz (2), buwaytress (2), TheBeardedBaby (2), Phil_S (2), Cryptotourist (2), xhomerx10 (1), bitcoinPsycho (1), pawel7777 (1), LUCKMCFLY (1), sheenshane (1), hosseinimr93 (1), madnessteat (1), bitserve (1), efialtis (1), dragonvslinux (1), Heisenberg_Hunter (1), friends1980 (1), Icygreen (1), geophphreigh (1), Dunkelheit667 (1), brobbel (1), pressnegl (1) |
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HALVENING!!! <----- Bullish or bearish Lets get something rolling. I would like to award a winning price of 0.125 BTC to the person that gets me the closest price of BTC at April 1st exactly measured at 22.00h CET So the price of BTC a bit before the upcoming halving event Few rules required to participate; -Must have at least 25 EARNED merits. -Must have at least 50 activity-Mainly cause of o_e_l_e_o we found a new way to chose a price (been voted here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5213423.0) We will guess prices in boxes of 50$ ranges, looks as follow first is first and the price that will be picked has to be a nr for example like it starts from 0 and counts up 0-50 51-100 101-150 151-200 .... 7001-7050 7051-7100 7101-7150 7151-7200 .... 10001-10050 10051-10100 10101-10150 10151-10200 ..... etc ^chose a box instead of a price valid from 0 to 1,000,000 just write it in the format that is given here and follows the count. So a member will be allowed to chose a price with his own 50$ range, a taken box is a reserved space not to be taken again. I will also ask when the game opens and someone takes a guess, to write it as shown in this post... -once the price is on the LIST, it cannot be changed anymore, so think deep very DEEP before adding on  - BITSTAMP PRICE TO BE CLEAR-As this is a game purely out of generosity and in good spirit for the forum and precious community we have, I do hope that playing members do share there TA approach or share there thought of thinking why they chose the price they picked. Its nice for others to read and maybe discuss while the game is going, good writings will not go unnoticed... *<--- will be written behind members name that gives TA or shared they thought why that price range the chose. Please do read the OP, so it won't go wrong all the time with prices.....--->>> chose in BOX-FORMAT  If any questions please first ask GL to all!!!! I also chose to LOCK this thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5213423.0 ... Normally wanted to open the game in here, but there was already some discussion around the game and maybe could be misleading etc I hope you guys understand... Again GL to all!! LIST CLOSES 10 JANUARY AT 12.00 CET
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XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!! Thanks Bro
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Bitcoin mining is now a specialized and very risky industry, just like gold mining. Amateur miners are unlikely to make much money, and may even lose money. Bitcoin is much more than just mining, though!
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Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
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El duderino_ (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2492
Merit: 11985
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
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January 03, 2020, 12:42:06 AM
Last edit: January 10, 2020, 11:32:34 PM by El duderino_ Merited by dragonvslinux (1) |
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As promised, I made a live leaderboard page for this game too, the address is still the same - https://tiramisu77.github.io/bct-game-leaderboard/I made a small improvement, now the delta column comes with a sign, so you can quickly see how much and in which direction the price should change in order for that user to become #1 on the leaderboard. Thx for the real time ticker awesome Here is final list of participants with links to posts they have made.
Winning price range is range of price which makes a user winner. (This range can be bigger than 50 dollar.) For creating the table, I used 1miau's template. Thx for creating this list and Good Luck to all !!! |
XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!! Thanks Bro
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El duderino_ (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2492
Merit: 11985
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
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January 03, 2020, 12:42:16 AM |
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reserved
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XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!! Thanks Bro
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gentlemand
Legendary
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Activity: 2590
Merit: 3008
Welt Am Draht
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January 03, 2020, 01:06:20 AM |
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8151-8200 since it worked before. Here's the source of my TA  |
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theymos
Administrator
Legendary
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Activity: 5180
Merit: 12873
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January 03, 2020, 01:11:25 AM |
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Some have said that this halving won't have as much effect as the last two, but it's still a reduction in monetary inflation from 3.7%/yr to 1.8%/yr, which is far from nothing, and in fact I see it as permanently bringing BTC out of the inflationary era and into the deflationary era. I'm not sure that we'll see 20k again in 2020 (though it could happen), but I think that 10k+ is quite likely several months after the halving. Historically, the post-halving runup has happened some time after the halving, presumably after people started to really feel the reduced supply.
For now though I don't see enough enthusiasm or other upward pressure. To the institutional investors who most push the market, BTC is largely seen as "leveraged gold", but the US/worldwide economy looks fine for now on its surface, fiat inflation isn't a widespread concern, etc. (BTC also has fundamental value beyond its value as "gold" -- a hedge against inflation and fiat collapse --, but this is a large component of the price currently.) So absent any major news, I think that the trendline is slightly downward for now. ("Major news" would be mostly regulatory-related, such as an approved BTC ETF or increased regulatory pressure. Probably the downside risk is higher than the upside risk here.)
One point of upward pressure is that there may have been some tax-loss-harvesting sales in Q4, which would now disappear. Not sure how big of an effect this was. And you might justify early-year volatility as people locking in gains ASAP in tax year 2020.
I predict that we'll sit in the 6k-7k range for some time between now and the halving, and although I wouldn't be too surprised to see prices in the lower half of that range, I'll guess near the high end, leading to my prediction of 6751-6800 on April 1. On the other hand, I predict that the supply reduction as well as mounting worldwide economic shakiness will cause a large runup (at least above 10k) in the second half of 2020. In the unlikely event that I win, please donate the BTC to a BTC-accepting charity of your choice (eg. intelligence.org or fee.org).
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1NXYoJ5xU91Jp83XfVMHwwTUyZFK64BoAD
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HairyMaclairy
Legendary
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Activity: 1414
Merit: 2174
Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist
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January 03, 2020, 01:15:22 AM
Last edit: January 03, 2020, 04:13:52 AM by HairyMaclairy Merited by El duderino_ (2) |
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$8001 - $8050  |
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El duderino_ (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2492
Merit: 11985
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
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January 03, 2020, 01:21:27 AM |
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@theymos, impressive talk and kind of to donate when winning
Cheers and GL
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XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!! Thanks Bro
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kurious
Legendary
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Activity: 2590
Merit: 1643
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I reckon we are back roughly in line with the last halving, after deviating in the middle of last year.
There may well be a run-up blip, but it will disappoint most...
So using a proportional overlay of 2016 to 2020, I will disappoint MicG, (sorry, mate) and pick....
8551-8600
Are haikus required?
I hope I am wrong
And am guessing way too low
Bitcoin's halving price
Well done Mic - another great game.
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我想要火箭和火车
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ezeminer
Legendary
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Activity: 2184
Merit: 1118
Lie down. Have a cookie
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January 03, 2020, 01:23:15 AM |
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I'll go with the $7751-7800 with my TA of 7777 is a pretty lucky number.
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bbc.reporter
Legendary
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Activity: 2912
Merit: 1439
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January 03, 2020, 01:24:11 AM |
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I am also not as bullish similar to theymos and put my range to 6801 - 6850. I speculate that this halving might be the time of discovery and the beginning of a discussion of bitcoin's flaws.
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████▀▀███████▀▀ | /// PLAY FOR FREE ///
WIN FOR REAL | │ | ..PLAY NOW.. | |
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teeGUMES
Legendary
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Activity: 1253
Merit: 1203
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January 03, 2020, 01:28:50 AM |
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7851-7900 - complete guess as I've never studied any TA.. I looked at my bitcoin nixie tube ticker and this range of price just came to me.
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krogothmanhattan
Cypher Hodl LLC
Legendary
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Activity: 2506
Merit: 3210
The Stone the masons rejected was the cornerstone.
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January 03, 2020, 01:31:19 AM |
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10151-10200
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El duderino_ (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2492
Merit: 11985
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
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January 03, 2020, 01:32:11 AM |
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I am also not as bullish similar to theymos and put my range to 6801 - 6850. I speculate that this halving might be the time of discovery and the beginning of a discussion of bitcoin's flaws.
BTC's flaws please do tell?? |
XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!! Thanks Bro
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El duderino_ (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2492
Merit: 11985
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
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January 03, 2020, 01:32:48 AM |
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10151-10200
I was just about to write, 5dig is allowed .... |
XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!! Thanks Bro
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heslo
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January 03, 2020, 01:37:27 AM |
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9851-9900
I hope I'm wrong and it's a lot higher but that's my guess
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Icygreen
Legendary
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Activity: 1463
Merit: 1135
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$6,451 - $6,500 I expect a final war for the last major plateau at $6,400 before the previous drop to $3150. This battleground will ultimately lead to major support or resistance and I expect that we will be inside this range leading to the having. Thanks for the game mic! Like the new style  |
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El duderino_ (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2492
Merit: 11985
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
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January 03, 2020, 01:50:20 AM |
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$6,450 - $6,500 I expect a final war for the last major plateau at $6,400 before the previous drop to $3150. This battleground will ultimately lead to major support or resistance and I expect that we will be inside this range leading to the having. Thanks for the game mic! Like the new style Please be wrong in like every line in this post  But most of all get your price right it has to be 645 1 Thx for digging the new style... |
XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!! Thanks Bro
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xhomerx10
Legendary
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Activity: 3822
Merit: 7962
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January 03, 2020, 01:52:20 AM |
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8151-8200 since it worked before. Here's the source of my TA So that's why they call him HairyMaclairy! I'd like to take 16351-16400 FTW please |
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Dunkelheit667
Legendary
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Activity: 1045
Merit: 1157
no degradation
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Here we go again with a generous award sponsored by micgoossens. The last halving was in July 2016. Let's have a look on the "performance" from March till May 2016: -5.06%, 8.13%, 18.60%. The opening price on January 1st 2020 was 7160.69 USD. If we base the same percentage values (which we shouldn't ) this will result in a price of 9016.27 USD. So my guess is 9001-9050 USD. Thanks a bunch!  And as always good luck to all participants! |
"And the machine keeps pushing time through the cogs, like paste into strings into paste again, and only the machine keeps using time to make time to make time.
And when the machine stops, time is an illusion that we created free will." - an unnamed Hybrid
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jojo69
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Activity: 3150
Merit: 4309
diamond-handed zealot
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January 03, 2020, 02:21:36 AM |
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10001-10050
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This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.
Censorship of e-gold was easy. Censorship of Bitcoin will be… entertaining.
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