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Author Topic: Discussions about ‘Iran buying Bitcoin’ are no longer valid  (Read 210 times)
DreamStage
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January 07, 2020, 04:22:51 PM
 #1

Political tensions between the US and Iran continue to increase following a recent drone strike that killed General Qassem Soleimani. Shortly after news of the attack broke, the price of Bitcoin suddenly increased, leading some industry commentators to draw the conclusion that Iranians had flocked to Bitcoin as a safe haven asset. However, data from exchanges like LocalBitcoins shows otherwise.

Data taken from peer-to-peer exchange volume tracking service UsefulTulips.org suggests that this convenient explanation for the increase is flawed. According to the figures presented, interest in Bitcoin in Iran is actually declining.

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Source: https://coin.dance/

As it seems Iran investors have diminished their transactions by a big margin since 20180's half.

As i have previous mentioned here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5215033.msg53526079#msg53526079 it is a continuation of the network's blockage.

But this news comes to inform ourselves that Iran transactions have in fact cease to exist atm or at least considered.


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January 07, 2020, 05:24:33 PM
 #2

Meanwhile, the price of bitcoin is gradually growing. If this morning the price of bitcoin, according to CoinMarketCap, was $ 7,880, now it is $ 7,922. If interest in bitcoin in Iran has not increased, then maybe its price increase is due to the fact that in May it will be divided in half, or rather, the reward for each new block mined will fall by half? If this is so, then until May, bitcoin can very strongly increase in price.

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January 07, 2020, 05:44:25 PM
 #3

To much has been made of this drone hit.  The USA droned a terrorist.  Period.  Obama did it 4000 times during his presidency.  President Trump does it once and all the traitors and state run media yell "IT'S WWIII".  LMAO.

Anyway, If it takes another Iranian high value terrorist to die for Bitcoin to keep rising then fire away. 
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January 07, 2020, 06:12:38 PM
 #4



To much has been made of this drone hit.  The USA droned a terrorist.  Period.  Obama did it 4000 times during his presidency.  President Trump does it once and all the traitors and state run media yell "IT'S WWIII".  LMAO.

Anyway, If it takes another Iranian high value terrorist to die for Bitcoin to keep rising then fire away. 

you can say these are all politics.  bin laden was also killed in Iran but that didn't stir all to world war but just to make panic because its a rep president that did it the media wants to escalate it by their own.

we are left puzzled who are pumping the market. if its not the Iranians who are buying BTC, then perhaps the governments trying to collect more BTC? 
why are we clueless?

 
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January 07, 2020, 07:28:34 PM
 #5

I think people are just trying to get a safe haven by buying bitcoin, gold. I understand this is partly because of this Iran-USA tension, and some heavy traders are just going to trade this news.

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January 07, 2020, 08:42:16 PM
 #6

-snip-
As it seems Iran investors have diminished their transactions by a big margin since 20180's half.

As i have previous mentioned here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5215033.msg53526079#msg53526079 it is a continuation of the network's blockage.

This may be attributed to the growing tension between the US and Iran during that time, especially the sanctions imposed by the US on Iran relating to trades and economic partnership. Add to that hot mess, the decision of the Iranian government to shutdown its internet connectivity to the outside world on November 16, so there were little to almost no trades posted concerning bitcoin at that time. Right now, the Iranian government is gradually reconnecting the internet to its constituents and the sudden influx of trades caught us off-guard when reports surface that bitcoin is being sold there at a premium price of $24,000 which, sadly, isn't confirmed nor denied by someone actually living inside Iran.


But this news comes to inform ourselves that Iran transactions have in fact cease to exist atm or at least considered

I'm pretty sure some people in there are still buying and not actually stopping from doing so. I mean, they have experienced massive bouts of inflation ever since the US sanctions came into play, so it's just obvious that they should hedge their assets somewhere, somehow, and bitcoin is the closest and easiest asset they can get without having to go through hoops just to obtain those.

The geopolitical issues and the instability on global relations surely have forced people to cling on to a new asset class that they aren't fully educated on, and that is bitcoin. While I'm quite positive on what's happening on the surface, I still don't believe that what we're gaining on bitcoin is worth it when we lose a lot of things in the process i.e. geopolitical stability and close foreign relations to each other.

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January 07, 2020, 08:58:15 PM
 #7

According to the figures presented, interest in Bitcoin in Iran is actually declining.

This data is based on Localbitcoins volume. It should be noted that Localbitcoins banned Iranian users last May, shortly after implementing KYC. Those two factors would explain why IRR volume has declined so much on the platform.

I'm always skeptical of these "Iranians/Hong Kongese/Lebanese/Cypriots are buying bitcoins" narratives. They usually blow things out of proportion. In this case, I'm curious how/where Iranian bitcoin traders are trading because I don't think it's Localbitcoins. We're not getting the full story here.

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January 07, 2020, 10:29:16 PM
 #8

Wow, this really sounds strange because i remember i read a news from their financial Minister where he made the report of some huge amount of money that have been withdrawn from banks and moved into the purchasing of bitcoins. Until i get some clear facts about this from the Iranian government i still think the unrest between US and Iran brought about this recent increase together with the upcoming bitcoin block reward halving.

 
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January 08, 2020, 01:45:51 AM
 #9



There is that possibility that actually the new excitement in the Bitcoin industry is not coming from Iran or the people of Iran but from the very industry itself. We assumed that the war can be positive for Bitcoin and many of us are buying into it hence the surge or the jump for the price. This has nothing to do within Iran but within the whole industry. The marketplace is a big psychological game. We are reacting to the news in the same way that a forex trader in Thailand can be reacting to a bad or good news happening in France. We are not a global village for nothing.

 
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January 08, 2020, 02:02:47 AM
Merited by LUCKMCFLY (1)
 #10

Bitcoin price surged with the assassination of Qassem Soleimani several days ago and another surge again today after 10 rockets hit airbase in Iraq where US troops are based.
War is escalating between US and Iran, this could be the reason for the price jumps. 

 
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January 08, 2020, 02:27:26 AM
 #11

I think it was meant to be a FOMO catalyst. With US and Iran's tension, paired with a headline that tells Bitcoin has become much more valued in Iran, investors would fear that they would jump on board too late even without confirming such rumors. Though there is always a split among the community who believes what, the thing is, it's difficult to know as always in a decentralized anonymous market.

 
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January 08, 2020, 02:31:23 AM
 #12

I totally agree that the incidents of a possible war are causing this increase in prices, the reason is that many are putting their money in bitcoin, it is much faster than buying gold, also the problem that can be triggered by possible falls in the local currency increases despair, it is better to be a refugee in Bitcoin that at any time can rise to higher price levels, many speculate that it can reach $ 12k in the short term.

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January 08, 2020, 03:11:26 AM
 #13

I also agree with you, Some people associate the rising price of bitcoin with the Iran war news, I think Iran vs US news doesn't really affect the price of bitcoin, even news about the price of $ 24,000 in local bitcoin iran if traced is not really the case, maybe the price of bitcoin has started to saturate so it starts to open a new trend.

 
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January 08, 2020, 04:12:58 AM
 #14

I also agree with you, Some people associate the rising price of bitcoin with the Iran war news, I think Iran vs US news doesn't really affect the price of bitcoin, even news about the price of $ 24,000 in local bitcoin iran if traced is not really the case, maybe the price of bitcoin has started to saturate so it starts to open a new trend.
As long as enough people believe such a thing could cause the price of bitcoin to go up then it will, this is a self-fulfilling prophecy, but if that is the case then this is a problem, I thought the price of bitcoin was going up simply because of its internal dynamics but if all of this is happening because investors are worried about the events currently happening in the middle east then this growth is not sustainable and we could see a decrease in the price during the next days.
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January 08, 2020, 04:20:41 PM
 #15

Let's discuss the matter from several axes:

 - There is no reason for the Iranian government to buy Bitcoin: they can sell oils and materials in exchange for what they need. Using Bitcoin is useless.
 - There is no incentive for individuals to buy bitcoins: when there is a certainty of disasters, people will tend to buy gold instead of currencies.
 - Exchange rate change: This change is related to the fact that there is more than one dollar rate.

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January 08, 2020, 04:52:27 PM
 #16

I also agree with you, Some people associate the rising price of bitcoin with the Iran war news, I think Iran vs US news doesn't really affect the price of bitcoin, even news about the price of $ 24,000 in local bitcoin iran if traced is not really the case, maybe the price of bitcoin has started to saturate so it starts to open a new trend.
Many reliable media sources and television also reported the impact of the rise in bitcoin due to the influence of Iran vs. America tensions after several counterattacks. Besides, the bitcoin saturation effect is unlikely to increase without being based on something that has caused a high demand that has occurred lately.

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January 08, 2020, 05:24:53 PM
 #17

Public awareness is being built. More people will enter into crypto world and they will explore the world with intense research. Old times are gone, cheaters will have hard time to scam people and cant run away with public's money. Regulations will be added and btc or other cryptos will be considered as sustained asset as volatility will be reduced. But what if no development occur in btc chain? Other crypto will replace btc. So development is only the way...

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January 08, 2020, 05:36:33 PM
 #18

Regulations will be added and btc or other cryptos will be considered as sustained asset as volatility will be reduced. But what if no development occur in btc chain?

This aspect is getting in my interest on this. The regulation is what I'm not sure of for bitcoin because of its decentralized strength but I don't know of other crypto. It will be difficult for such regulation to stay but more people will come because of awareness that is constantly increasing.

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January 08, 2020, 06:01:17 PM
 #19

As long as enough people believe such a thing could cause the price of bitcoin to go up then it will

That's a fair point, but we have had enough examples in the past where certain countries caused the price to increase according to people, but later on the price tanked while the tensions in these countries only kept reaching a boiling point, and that without affecting the price at all.

In markets the charts are the deciding factors. Could geopolitical turmoil affect the price of certain assets? It certainly could, but in most cases the price moves in the direction of the trend it was in, so it's really difficult to attribute price movements to certain events if it doesn't concern something like oil. Gold in the past has turned out to be a very bad hedge multiple times. It is more of a speculative asset than a safe haven asset.

Whenever Bitcoin breaks through some major resistance points, the price will very likely get propelled much higher, which then again will make people scream that it's because of Iran.  Roll Eyes
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January 08, 2020, 07:13:01 PM
 #20

The entire article is based on stupidity and hype from a clickbait source, just note the facts:
 
* In May 2019 Localbitcoins "officially shut off service for Iran-based users"  (https://www.coindesk.com/localbitcoins-bans-bitcoin-buying-in-iran-in-blow-to-rising-crypto-commerce ).
* Localbitcoins still says:  "Unfortunately LocalBitcoins is currently not available in your selected region. Please look for other location or come back later." whenever you click on the buy bitcoins in Iran.
* The article is quoting the trading volume IN Iranian rial.  NOT that takes place in Iran, but that is priced and transacted in the rial. And the author didn't understand the difference between them.  Are there many people outside Iran using the rial?  Sure, but not a lot it seems.

Inside Iran is the volume that matters because that is where people want to protect their wealth or where they want to convert the rial into something that can bypass capital and currency controls.  LocalBitcoins doesn't allow that right now.

No one is buying bitcoin inside Iran using localbitcoins because it is not allowed on the localbitcoins platform.  What is allowed is people using the rial to buy bitcoin if they are outside of Iran.

Without good data showing what is being bought and sold inside Iran (and even whether it is permitted) the statement that people are or are not purchasing bitcoin to protect in Iran their wealth isn't verifiable or falsifiable.  I don't doubt that IF localbitcoins was allowing transactions inside Iran, there would be many people attempting to convert their wealth into something that they can then take outside of Iran.

The entire article seems to be based on a complete misunderstanding of the information.
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