[2020-02-24] Binance CEO Makes Rare Price Prediction—Says This Is When To Buy

[zakoliverz]

There have already been two bitcoin halvings since bitcoin launched in 2009, one in 2012 and another in 2016. Bitcoin halvings are scheduled to continue roughly once every four years until the maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins has been generated by the network, something that won't happen until well into the next century.

Whether the upcoming bitcoin halving has been "priced in" by the market has become a controversial issue among investors. Generally, in well-developed markets, equity, commodities and currencies are priced based on future expectations—suggesting that as bitcoin traders and investors are aware of the May halving, the price will have already made the gains related to it.

CZ disagrees, however, telling BlockTV: "The market is not efficient. Most people don't get information quickly. People need a lot of time to let concepts sink in and adjust."

Many are hoping the 2020 bitcoin halving will see a repeat of the last cut to supply. Bitcoin prices doubled in 2016 and soared 13-fold the following year.

However, CZ warned that "historic events do not predict future events, so don't take that too literally," but explained the bitcoin halving will mean "it costs miners almost double what it does now to produce one bitcoin. Psychologically, those miners won't be willing to sell below that price."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/02/23/binance-ceo-gives-rare-price-prediction-says-this-is-when-to-buy-bitcoin/#796ae5273174

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[Lucius]

CZ says he doesn't like to speculate about the price because in at least 50% of cases he won't be right, but this time I don't see him talking about price, but about right time to buy, and costs of mining. Accordingly, he also bases his thinking that the price should go up as the price of mining goes up, thinking of course on block rewards, and fact that only 900 BTC will be produced daily after next halving.

If it does not suit anyone to keep the price as it is, then the miners are in the first place, but the question is how much they can affect the price, since they will produce half as much as it was case before, and that they will have to sell regardless of the price if they want to pay the costs they have.

I'm still waiting to see what/when will happen CZ $16 000 “Soonish”

[gentlemand]

Exchange owners of all people should surely know that predicting is a dumb business, and they make money no matter what the market conditions are anyway.

If I had a public platform I would go no further than things like 'I think Bitcoin is nice.'

[carlfebz2]

However, CZ warned that "historic events do not predict future events, so don't take that too literally," but explained the bitcoin halving will mean "it costs miners almost double what it does now to produce one bitcoin. Psychologically, those miners won't be willing to sell below that price."

At least he do give out this warning which i do highly agree and to that miner sentiment which do have actually got some valid point but it doesnt mean that this would be enough to spark out bullish run.

If I had a public platform I would go no further than things like 'I think Bitcoin is nice.'

Well, they do love some thrills if they do add up something. 

[bbc.reporter]

Exchange owners of all people should surely know that predicting is a dumb business, and they make money no matter what the market conditions are anyway.

If I had a public platform I would go no further than things like 'I think Bitcoin is nice.'

However, he also said something that is very correct in his interview.

However, CZ warned that "historic events do not predict future events, so don't take that too literally," but explained the bitcoin halving will mean "it costs miners almost double what it does now to produce one bitcoin. Psychologically, those miners won't be willing to sell below that price."

He might be telling the miners to slap themselves because they will be selling below the costs of mining with only months left before the halving hehehe.

[buwaytress]

Trust me, people will be slapping themselves even if they sold above $10k, eventually. Heck, I'm either slapping myself on the face or on the back every 3 weeks or so. So I somehow managed to time my last sell early at 2 weeks ago, and seeing how much it's dipped today? Yeah, makes me think I'm a genius for getting about 10% more had I waited till now.

But I've had other months where a sell delayed or brought forward got me worse prices.

It's all a big wheel of up and down. As long as we're selling much, much more, in future as far forward as possible from the date we bought, we're good.

[alani123]

Binance CEO has been especially bullish in spite of the ICO boom falling right through their exchange even in spite of their project listings appearing ambitious at first.
I think his predictions won't be that cose to reality when it'd be time to count gains though. Aside of the fact that prices can't be forecasted, BTC even went on a bearish trend right after his statement. So whoever followed the prediction is actually counting losses right now probably.

[stompix]

Binance CEO Makes Rare Price Prediction—Says This Is When To Buy

Can you give me one example of a guy running a business, be it car dealership, meat, coffee2go, condoms that is coming to twitter or any other social media and tells you "This is NOT the time to buy my product!"

And I'm amazed he comes with this non-sense

However, CZ warned that "historic events do not predict future events, so don't take that too literally," but explained the bitcoin halving will mean "it costs miners almost double what it does now to produce one bitcoin. Psychologically, those miners won't be willing to sell below that price."

No, it won't COST miners double to get the same revenue. What is halving is the revenue, it depends a lot on how much the costs are compared to the profit.

For example, if it costs me 5k in electricity to mine a full BTC I have a 4k profit.
After the halving, my costs will be the same but I will make the only 4.5k, so a loss of 500.
The is no doubling, there is no real math formula to calculate the impact.

[Harlot]

Coming from a guy who profits from commissions from trading? This is more of a marketing ploy rather than a tip since him suggesting us to buy more Bitcoin would only mean some revenue gain for their crypto exchange. What's more interesting is how the hell did he made Forbes be up for this since they barely cover any crypto related news and now they suddenly covered the CEO of the biggest crypto exchange in the industry. Changpeng is obviously taking advantage of the recent price action and he wants more people to buy Bitcoin since they are one of the most popular exchange out here obviously the hype will just go into their favor. For people who don't have any Bitcoin until now, this is not the right time to buy Bitcoin as you are holding it without a margin of safety at hand meaning you'll just be holding it at a risk.

[livingfree]

This is when a popular and rich guy's word becomes words of wisdom.

Telling that the past doesn't predict the future events, we're not saying that there's a connection from the past halving and the upcoming but we're all simply speculating and comparing what happened there. I'm sure he knows that bitcoin is a speculative asset and market.

[bbc.reporter]

Coming from a guy who profits from commissions from trading? This is more of a marketing ploy rather than a tip since him suggesting us to buy more Bitcoin would only mean some revenue gain for their crypto exchange. What's more interesting is how the hell did he made Forbes be up for this since they barely cover any crypto related news and now they suddenly covered the CEO of the biggest crypto exchange in the industry. Changpeng is obviously taking advantage of the recent price action and he wants more people to buy Bitcoin since they are one of the most popular exchange out here obviously the hype will just go into their favor. For people who don't have any Bitcoin until now, this is not the right time to buy Bitcoin as you are holding it without a margin of safety at hand meaning you'll just be holding it at a risk.

Agreed! That might be the real motivation behind his statement. Do not slap yourself. Buy bitcoin on my exchange where I will earn millions of dollars in commissions hehehehe.

We should never trust a cryptospace businessman. Very many scammers hehe.

[Kounter]

So tell me directly that the market is inefficient due to greedy miners.