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Euro1000
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January 23, 2020, 08:36:32 PM
 #1

Following scenario: A government would like to destroy Bitcoin. It buys a significant number of ASICs to build up a huge mining farm and carries out a 51% attack.
From my point of view it will not be so easy to buy so many ASICs as once - what do you think?
Another question: Will it be noticed (how?) that somebody buys a big stack of ASICs and/or are we able to identify such a behavior monitoring the network's hashrate?
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January 23, 2020, 08:42:22 PM
Last edit: February 04, 2020, 03:49:01 PM by darosior
 #2

Hi,

Following scenario: A government would like to destroy Bitcoin. It buys a significant number of ASICs to build up a huge mining farm and carries out a 51% attack.
From my point of view it will not be so easy to buy so many ASICs as once - what do you think?
Absolutely, that's usually the first argument I make when discussing 51%. Is there enough hashrate available so that it surpasses all the hashrate allocated to Bitcoin ? If so, why not mine Bitcoin ?
Even if it's for trying to hurt, a one (or two?) block(s) reorg won't affect the network that much (if not at all, for one block). Trying to reorg >2 block becomes really difficult..

Another question: Will it be noticed (how?) that somebody buys a big stack of ASICs and/or are we able to identify such a behavior monitoring the network's hashrate?
If the aim is to 51%, then the hashrate won't be allocated to the Bitcoin network. So, no, not by monitoring the hashrate.

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January 23, 2020, 08:46:41 PM
 #3

Buying ASICs is easy, but a government wanting to destroy Bitcoin means turning against its citizens. The "Bitcoin is used for illicit activity" excuse card means accusing every citizen of sustaining illicit activity. Not a good idea.

But let's hypothetically say they did really want to destroy it. A 51% attack is possible, damage could be done but it could also be reversed by reversing blocks. 51% attack means they have to own 51% of the mining power, so they either do it by slowly adding more and more ASICs into their system to slowly rise the hashrate during a longer term or they would plug all of them in at once and there will be a 110% hashrate spike.

About being noticed, I'm sure there will be lots of people and articles everywhere on the Internet posting screenshots of the hashrate spike. Twitter would be full of them.

Am I missing something? I've never been deep in Bitcoin mining before so this post might contain stupid statements and any correction is appreciated.

EDIT:

-snip

If the aim is to 51%, then the hashrate won't be allocated to the Bitcoin network. So, no, not by monitoring the hashrate.

It won't? Where would it be allocated then? I thought the hashrate charts represented the total Bitcoin mining hashrate.
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January 23, 2020, 08:53:10 PM
Merited by Foxpup (3)
 #4

Following scenario: A government would like to destroy Bitcoin. It buys a significant number of ASICs to build up a huge mining farm and carries out a 51% attack.

First thing, why would a government do that?
And if they are afraid of bitcoin, it means they should be afraid of ethereum once bitcoin is gone, and next about litecoin and them some PoS coins and so on and on. From a government point totally wanting to get rid of cryptos, it makes zero sense to start spending billions in order to pluck only one at a time.

And why kill bitcoin entirely, they could deal with the problem in their country only.
If they are that stupid to plan such an attack first they would put lifetime sentences as punishment people using bitcoin, how many do you think would risk it?

From my point of view it will not be so easy to buy so many ASICs as once - what do you think?

In order to get 51%, you would need roughly 2 million s17, taking into account that while you set them up some miners will drop because of the reward getting smaller, maybe you can do it with 1,2 - 1,5 million, but I doubt Bitmain or Cannan or all the manufacturer together would be able to produce that in a short period of time.

Another question: Will it be noticed (how?) that somebody buys a big stack of ASICs and/or are we able to identify such a behavior monitoring the network's hashrate?

If you don't have an insider at the company selling, you won't know it till the hash rate grows and since the hash rate is normally on an upward trend right now because of better gear and the price increase you will need really good clairvoyance skills to realize it's an evil player adding hash power to the network.

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January 23, 2020, 09:22:29 PM
 #5

Following scenario: A government would like to destroy Bitcoin. It buys a significant number of ASICs to build up a huge mining farm and carries out a 51% attack.

First thing, why would a government do that?
And if they are afraid of bitcoin, it means they should be afraid of ethereum once bitcoin is gone, and next about litecoin and them some PoS coins and so on and on. From a government point totally wanting to get rid of cryptos, it makes zero sense to start spending billions in order to pluck only one at a time.

And why kill bitcoin entirely, they could deal with the problem in their country only.
If they are that stupid to plan such an attack first they would put lifetime sentences as punishment people using bitcoin, how many do you think would risk it?
I also dont see any reason why government will do such thing cause they already have enough on their plate rather than focusing on carry out 51% attack on bitcoin and from my experience 51% is usually carry out by miners and i dont see any reason why a miner will want the reason why we are all into crypto today to quench.



Another question: Will it be noticed (how?) that somebody buys a big stack of ASICs and/or are we able to identify such a behavior monitoring the network's hashrate?

If you don't have an insider at the company selling, you won't know it till the hash rate grows and since the hash rate is normally on an upward trend right now because of better gear and the price increase you will need really good clairvoyance skills to realize it's an evil player adding hash power to the network.
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January 24, 2020, 05:43:15 PM
 #6

Long before they collect the ASICs for the attack, the government will realize that they can make money mining Bitcoin.
So if they could spend so much money, I thing they would continue the mining and not attacking.
So I believe it is not a possible scenario...

Following scenario: A government would like to destroy Bitcoin. It buys a significant number of ASICs to build up a huge mining farm and carries out a 51% attack.
From my point of view it will not be so easy to buy so many ASICs as once - what do you think?
Another question: Will it be noticed (how?) that somebody buys a big stack of ASICs and/or are we able to identify such a behavior monitoring the network's hashrate?
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January 24, 2020, 05:56:52 PM
Merited by Foxpup (3), NeuroticFish (1), o48o (1), o_e_l_e_o (1)
 #7

Following scenario: A government would like to destroy Bitcoin. It buys a significant number of ASICs to build up a huge mining farm and carries out a 51% attack.

"A significant number"?

They would need to purchase more hashpower than the entire rest of the Bitcoin mining world combined.

The current global hash rate is approximately 120,000,000,000,000,000,000 hashes per second (120 eH/s).

That means that the attacker would need to purchase enough equipment to generate more than 120,000,000,000,000,000,000 hashes per second, and they'd have to do that quickly, since the global hash rate that they are trying to overcome is currently still increasing.  If it took them too long to purchase all their hash power, the global hash rate may have increased, and they'd still need to purchase even more.

The Antminer S17 calculates approximately 67 TH/s and costs $1600 to purchase.

The attacker is going to need to purchase:
120,000,000,000,000,000,000 / 67,000,000,000,000 = 1,791,045 Antminer S17

I'm not sure how long it would take Antminer to manufacture 1.8 million S17 units, but let's pretend they just happen to have them sitting in a warehouse waiting to be sold...

That's going to cost the attacker $2,865,672,000

So, they are going to spend nearly 3 Billion dollars just to acquire the equipment. Then they are going to need to have somewhere to store/operate all this equipment. They'll need to pay some people to set up and maintain everything. They'll also need about 5.8 gigawatts to power the mining equipment (plus the electricity need to cool it all and light the buildings that house it all.

This is almost certainly going to create a noticeable shortage of Antminer S17 units, which will drive up the costs of whatever mining equipment anyone can get their hands on.

After all that money, and all that effort, it's still questionable whether they'd actually "destroy" Bitcoin.  First of all, they won't be able to chnage any of the consensus rules.  The best they'd be able to do is block transactions from being confirmed, keep any other miners from earning any revenue, and/or perform a double-spend (assuming they can find anyone that is willing to engage in a transaction with them).  There is a small chance that an overwhelming majority of users of Bitcoin might decide to fork the code such that all the mining power the attacker purchased could become instantly worthlesss.

Perhaps it would be better/cheaper to just create a law (with penalty of death) that makes it illegal to mine, purchase, sell, hold, or transact with Bitcoin?  Then send a few missles at large mining operations in other countries?  That should significantly reduce participation.  Then once the hash rate drops down below 67 TH/s, they can perform their 51% attack with a single Antminer S17!

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January 24, 2020, 06:05:27 PM
 #8

I actually think there is another way they could take it over. We all know those three letter agency's love a zero-day to get what they want. 
Now what if a exploit in nodes and miners was being tucked away by them they could easy launch an attack to take over the miners already on the network in conjunction with an attack on the nodes this would be the most plausible way for them to take control over the network.

I for one believe that such an attack is highly possible people thinking they would need to buy miners is absurd when they could just exploit the ones that are on the network already.  Second to this is the fact they could also attack pool's to get the desired hash-rate to perform an attack.

Right now I think the focus should be on the centralization of the mining power with less and less home miners and small farms shutting down and being pushed out dew to power hungry 3kw units that are no use for home miners. 

This should be on the minds more than a state coming in and shutting it down lose the home and small farms and it's basically china and  the east than own bitcoin that should be more of a concern that anything also the number of pools that are about on the brink of shutting down will give the large players more of a the hashrate so the above becomes very relevant,  and quickly..

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January 24, 2020, 08:45:27 PM
 #9

Kinda sorta quoting myself here, but I changed the numbers a bit.
You can screw with bitcoin with a lot of money and a fake PPS pool(s).

6 blocks an hour  * 24 hours in a day  * 12.5 coins per block (for now) = 1800 BTC generated per day

1800 * 8750 (USD value of BTC at the moment) = 15,750,000 USD Lets round that up to 17,500,000 a day

Let’s give everyone a 20% bonus so $21 Million USD a day in our PPS pool in outgoing BTC

Let’s do this for a quarter so 90 days. That is just shy of 2 Billion USD out of pocket if this killer pool mines 0 blocks and has to buy all the BTC that they are giving out.

Since it’s a PPS pool that they control, they can point the hash to ANY SHA coin. Kiss every SHA coin that is not BTC goodbye. Then they point it back to BTC for 2 or 3 difficulty increases. And then in the end they point the hash rate nowhere. And the block chain comes to a crashing halt. Are you seriously going to mine at CKpool or Slush or P2Pool when it’s going to take forever to find a block because difficulty spiked because with an extra 20% marginal hardware gets turned back on, or are you going to mine here and get your extra 20% all day every day.

And then they shut off and go away. How long will it take us to recover?

Who would do this? I don’t know. Do you think if I went to Chase / Bank Of America / HSBC / CitiBank / Western Union / Wells Fargo and said “Hey, each of you cough up $350 million and I’ll set Bitcoin / crypto back 5+
years.” They would ask how or just write me a check? It's also petty cash for just about any government. Even after the divorce settlement Bezos probably still has it in cash in his safe at home

-Dave



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January 24, 2020, 09:00:19 PM
 #10

That is very true DaveF,  I think also the fact that there are very few pools out there people plump for the ones that have the largest hash rate leaving out the likes of ck pool and kano now both are struggling now kano's last bock being mid December and ck's some time before that we also lost johnny bravo's pool and have seen may other fold under the conditions now.

It will be a true shame if we lose these pools the more I look at this the more it's looking like a whitewash by the large players to keep the small guys out the market but thing is if this happens and say something happens to the large players if there are no fallback pools and miners left out there your right the chain come's to a horrific stalemate.

It's concerning that the small pools are being forced out now this will only continue we really need more pools and better distribution of hashrate to resolve this or we will end up with 3 of 4 very very large pool basically the mining mafia.

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January 24, 2020, 09:01:12 PM
 #11

That pool will have a too big hash rate. People will notice and start crying. Smarter miners may understand that something is fishy and go out.

Keep in mind that other SHA coins have only a small fraction of Bitcoin hash rate.

I think that the trick will not work.

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January 24, 2020, 09:54:11 PM
 #12

If a pool did turn rogue, then a lot of hashrate contributors would switch to a different pool to combat it. The 51% attack isn't a genuine threat from my eyes. I think a 51% attack could potentially be made in a short period of time, but once everyone else is aware, and the expenses start to rack up the attack will subside. The government don't really need to attack the Bitcoin network as much as everyone likes to pretend that Bitcoin is a threat to the governments of the world or the banking systems it just isn't currently.

Bitcoin was never meant to be a direct attack on the government, and I can't see them getting involved especially when they can control it from less expensive, and invasive ways via media coverage.


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January 24, 2020, 10:12:38 PM
 #13


~snip~

The Antminer S17 calculates approximately 67 TH/s and costs $1600 to purchase.

The attacker is going to need to purchase:
120,000,000,000,000,000,000 / 67,000,000,000,000 = 1,791,045 Antminer S17

I'm not sure how long it would take Antminer to manufacture 1.8 million S17 units, but let's pretend they just happen to have them sitting in a warehouse waiting to be sold...

That's going to cost the attacker $2,865,672,000

Have to take my hat off to you, there are some serious calculations there  Shocked

The reality is the only winner in any such scenario would the Antminer manufacturing company

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January 25, 2020, 04:29:19 PM
 #14

Following scenario: A government would like to destroy Bitcoin. It buys a significant number of ASICs to build up a huge mining farm and carries out a 51% attack.
From my point of view it will not be so easy to buy so many ASICs as once - what do you think?
Another question: Will it be noticed (how?) that somebody buys a big stack of ASICs and/or are we able to identify such a behavior monitoring the network's hashrate?


You are confused at the difference between a Government Power verses a rich person Power.

You outlined how a rich person would attack bitcoin, by buying what they needed to make a 51% attack.

A government would go about it differently.
1. Just Outlaw it and imprison anyone for 20 years that used Bitcoin.

2.  Seize / Confiscate any ASICs warehouse in your or cooperating counties, and use them for an 51% attack.

3.  Threaten the top 4 mining pool operators with jail or worse, if they fail to comply with your Government desire for a 51% attack.

4.  Tax the miners to make it an unprofitable venture, so the miners close down.

5  Full Scale war, physically destroy all ASIC warehouses with explosives and imprison any bitcoin supporters.

6. Start a worldwide Propaganda campaign  how bitcoin is funding terrorism and depleting earth's natural resources,
    So bitcoin never gains true adoption, and people refuse to use it , because they consider it disgusting.
    This would also correlate with the release of a Government Backed/Controled digital payment system
    which would be promoted and accepted as fiat in that country.

* While governments may never go that far, be aware, they have access to resources that mean they never have to buy 1 asic to destroy bitcoin. *

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January 25, 2020, 04:36:32 PM
Merited by NotFuzzyWarm (1), ETFbitcoin (1), darosior (1)
 #15

Indeed, assuming a very powerful attacker then limiting them to weird technical attacks is unimaginative.

'just have to catch some miners, gather them up on stage and shoot them in the head. (Or more realistically put them in prison). Don't hypothesize weird technical attacks when boring things will do.'

https://buildingbitcoin.org/bitcoin-dev/log-2012-05-17.html#l-642

Even outlaws don't have that much use for an outlaw currency. Actually destroying bitcoin would be very hard but depriving it of almost all of its value would be much easier for a major nation state attacker.  But why would people want to do such a thing? -- in general, they wouldn't.
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January 27, 2020, 09:58:07 AM
 #16

Sometimes this happens ... the last 51% attacks  have succeeded in stealing of   $19K +  $53K = $72K  worth of BTG.


Bitcoin Gold (BTG) Suffers 51 Percent Attack with Barely Anyone Noticing

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January 27, 2020, 12:18:25 PM
 #17

Indeed, assuming a very powerful attacker then limiting them to weird technical attacks is unimaginative.

'just have to catch some miners, gather them up on stage and shoot them in the head. (Or more realistically put them in prison). Don't hypothesize weird technical attacks when boring things will do.'

https://buildingbitcoin.org/bitcoin-dev/log-2012-05-17.html#l-642

Even outlaws don't have that much use for an outlaw currency. Actually destroying bitcoin would be very hard but depriving it of almost all of its value would be much easier for a major nation state attacker.  But why would people want to do such a thing? -- in general, they wouldn't.

That is overt. People will see and know what happened. Some of what was posed could be done covertly. No public bad actors, no acknowledgement, just oh look BTC was around for this many years then that happened and it and other cryptos went away. People would point fingers and everything else but w/o proof it would all be speculation.

I seriously do not think it could really happen in just about any of the ways listed, but that does not mean that it can't happen some way.

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January 27, 2020, 01:51:22 PM
 #18

Sometimes this happens ... the last 51% attacks  have succeeded in stealing of   $19K +  $53K = $72K  worth of BTG.


Bitcoin Gold (BTG) Suffers 51 Percent Attack with Barely Anyone Noticing


That's the downside of running on an "ASIC-proof" PoW algorithm -- more easily available hashing power that can just as easily be reused for another coin so you don't even have to shoot your own foot when running an attack.

BTG having relatively small hashing power to begin with didn't make things much better.

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January 27, 2020, 08:18:53 PM
 #19

Being in line with your scenario, what the government would be doing is illegal. The 51% attack would mean fraud when it comes to transactions happening in Bitcoin's blockchain even the disruption of the system alone will make the government commit a crime what more if they try to double spend in some transactions? This alone would simply make them liable in several criminal things and the worst thing that could happen to them is that the international body would intervene with the sick thing they are doing. Also if they want to destroy Bitcoin and the entire industry wouldn't it be much easier for them to do it by creating unfavorable laws and regulations under their country which will be much cheaper for them to do.

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January 28, 2020, 04:16:16 AM
 #20

Sometimes this happens ... the last 51% attacks  have succeeded in stealing of   $19K +  $53K = $72K  worth of BTG.
Bitcoin Gold (BTG) Suffers 51 Percent Attack with Barely Anyone Noticing

you can't really post that in a topic that is discussing about bitcoin! and if you compare the two hashrates you will understand how ridiculous that comparison is. in chart form it is this: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/hashrate-btc-btg.html#3m the red line at the bottom which can't even be seen belongs to BTG.
in numbers the values are like this (first one is bitcoin hashrate and second is BTG both in h/s):
102,205,774,869,465,923,584
                  2,745,036

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January 28, 2020, 02:11:08 PM
Merited by pooya87 (1)
 #21

~
you can't really post that in a topic that is discussing about bitcoin! and if you compare the two hashrates you will understand how ridiculous that comparison is. in chart form it is this: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/hashrate-btc-btg.html#3m the red line at the bottom which can't even be seen belongs to BTG.
in numbers the values are like this (first one is bitcoin hashrate and second is BTG both in h/s):
102,205,774,869,465,923,584
                  2,745,036


I'm the last person defending shitcoins but you can't compare the hash rate of two different algorithms.
Ethereum's hash rate is ~160 Th, while an S17+ is doing 67Th but I doubt you can launch an attack with 3000$ worth of equipment.  Grin



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January 28, 2020, 02:24:55 PM
 #22

In argue always the current hashrate is shown how hard it would be. But you have to think of:

1) they can destroy or simply cut off the network some of these huge mining farms so hashrate would drop

2) they can use these mining farms in any way (rent them, command them)

3) the hash rate maybe not constantly grow after 2 more halvings



For me much simpler is forbid POW with the climate argument. Lets say the European union does forbid the trading, import and mining of proof of work currencys. Of course they can be used in shadow but the price will significant drop. Maybe this new regulation organisation some kind of foundet in Davos does that nearly wourld wide.


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January 28, 2020, 03:18:11 PM
 #23

Being in line with your scenario, what the government would be doing is illegal. The 51% attack would mean fraud when it comes to transactions happening in Bitcoin's blockchain even the disruption of the system alone will make the government commit a crime what more if they try to double spend in some transactions? This alone would simply make them liable in several criminal things and the worst thing that could happen to them is that the international body would intervene with the sick thing they are doing. Also if they want to destroy Bitcoin and the entire industry wouldn't it be much easier for them to do it by creating unfavorable laws and regulations under their country which will be much cheaper for them to do.

I have to agree with this. The easiest way for governmental agencies to put any crypto out in the cold would legislation because it would be easier/convenient to pass laws rather than to try to force a 51% attack.

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January 28, 2020, 03:58:53 PM
 #24

1) they can destroy or simply cut off the network some of these huge mining farms so hashrate would drop
2) they can use these mining farms in any way (rent them, command them)
both of these  depend on how big a hashrate mining farms have. for example if there were a mining farm with 60% or even 30% of the hashrate then it could cause a lot of problems in short term until difficulty adjusts but when mining farms have 1-5% it won't matter.
i don't believe there is any single farm that has a big enough hashrate that its shutdown could cause any trouble for bitcoin.

Quote
3) the hash rate maybe not constantly grow after 2 more halvings
that would be pure speculation about price. but apart from that if hashrate doesn't grow that means bitcoin price isn't going up and that means it stopped growing in which case there is no incentive for government to attack something that is not even growing!

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January 28, 2020, 04:03:04 PM
 #25

1) they can destroy or simply cut off the network some of these huge mining farms so hashrate would drop

Bitcoin's hashing power is so overwhelming that even after killing off half its network you'd still have plenty of protection left. Obsolete mining farms would take their place as mining becomes profitable for older hardware again.


2) they can use these mining farms in any way (rent them, command them)

There's not enough hashing power available for rent to mount a reasonable attack. Simply seizing private property of highly profitable companies to then run these companies into the ground on the off-chance that one could get enough hashing power for a successful attack is a losing proposition.



3) the hash rate maybe not constantly grow after 2 more halvings

Which means less hardware being produced meaning less hardware being available for a potential attack.



For me much simpler is forbid POW with the climate argument. Lets say the European union does forbid the trading, import and mining of proof of work currencys. Of course they can be used in shadow but the price will significant drop. Maybe this new regulation organisation some kind of foundet in Davos does that nearly wourld wide.

Making PoW mining illegal would simply push mining operations to countries where mining is still legal -- assuming you could even successfully persecute miners.

A price drop caused by unfavorable regulation would lessen Bitcoin's hashrate but still not make an attack much easier (ie. see my answere to (3) above)

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January 29, 2020, 04:29:57 AM
 #26

I'm the last person defending shitcoins but you can't compare the hash rate of two different algorithms.
Ethereum's hash rate is ~160 Th, while an S17+ is doing 67Th but I doubt you can launch an attack with 3000$ worth of equipment.  Grin

that is also a good point. i believe BTG's algorithm is based on ZCash mining algorithm called Equihash so maybe a better comparison would be with ZCash hashrate which is like this:
5,636,579,094
    2,745,036

BTG is still too small making such attacks very easy.

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January 29, 2020, 04:48:23 AM
Merited by NeuroticFish (1), squatter (1)
 #27

That pool will have a too big hash rate. People will notice and start crying. Smarter miners may understand that something is fishy and go out.

Keep in mind that other SHA coins have only a small fraction of Bitcoin hash rate.

I think that the trick will not work.

Do three pools.  have it look like it is a pps+. pool battle.

a price war.

if three pps+ pools  were all paying 125% they would get a lot of the network.

people would think cool not fear this as it is three pools having a price war.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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January 29, 2020, 03:09:55 PM
 #28

If a government decides to buy a big stack of miners to perform the 51% attack i think other countries and bitcoin miners will not allow that and it would be a huge hash rate fight. But if the government wins then they can do some nasty moves on the blockchain.

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February 01, 2020, 08:51:52 AM
 #29

If a government decides to buy a big stack of miners to perform the 51% attack i think other countries and bitcoin miners will not allow that and it would be a huge hash rate fight. But if the government wins then they can do some nasty moves on the blockchain.
You're underestimating the amount of resources and the benefits governments would gain from attacking Bitcoin. Cryptos will still thrive regardless of if the attack suceeds or not. Its not difficult for Bitcoin to fork to a different algroithm and the government would be left with a huge pile of useless ASICs.

If they have enough resources, there's no fight at all.

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February 01, 2020, 09:45:54 AM
 #30

If a government decides to buy a big stack of miners to perform the 51% attack i think other countries and bitcoin miners will not allow that and it would be a huge hash rate fight. But if the government wins then they can do some nasty moves on the blockchain.
You're underestimating the amount of resources and the benefits governments would gain from attacking Bitcoin. Cryptos will still thrive regardless of if the attack suceeds or not. Its not difficult for Bitcoin to fork to a different algroithm and the government would be left with a huge pile of useless ASICs.

If they have enough resources, there's no fight at all.
There will be no consensus for a hardfork. Because until this really happen and is only something estimated, Bitcoin is as flexible as 20 m of railroad track

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February 02, 2020, 02:18:13 PM
 #31

If a government decides to buy a big stack of miners to perform the 51% attack i think other countries and bitcoin miners will not allow that and it would be a huge hash rate fight. But if the government wins then they can do some nasty moves on the blockchain.
You're underestimating the amount of resources and the benefits governments would gain from attacking Bitcoin. Cryptos will still thrive regardless of if the attack suceeds or not. Its not difficult for Bitcoin to fork to a different algroithm and the government would be left with a huge pile of useless ASICs.

If they have enough resources, there's no fight at all.
There will be no consensus for a hardfork. Because until this really happen and is only something estimated, Bitcoin is as flexible as 20 m of railroad track

Surely it'll happen, but the real problem is whether majority will follow that fork or not.

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February 05, 2020, 05:01:14 PM
 #32

China can already do that. It has more than 51% of all Bitcoin mining power in pools. They can easily take over the pools.
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February 05, 2020, 06:58:39 PM
 #33

China can already do that. It has more than 51% of all Bitcoin mining power in pools. They can easily take over the pools.
Just because most mining power comes from China doesn't mean their government can take over Bitcoin through a 51% attack. I've never studied who owns the most Bitcoin power in China but I highly doubt (and I think it's pretty logic) that it's their government. Otherwise, Bitcoin would be right now placed under a serious threat of centralization and power.

You're underestimating the amount of resources and the benefits governments would gain from attacking Bitcoin. Cryptos will still thrive regardless of if the attack suceeds or not. Its not difficult for Bitcoin to fork to a different algroithm and the government would be left with a huge pile of useless ASICs.

If they have enough resources, there's no fight at all.
Considering Danny's calculus, how will the governments gain any benefit from attacking Bitcoin? A successful attack would only determine devs to focus on Bitcoin's security against these attacks, hence making Bitcoin even stronger. A failure would be a big embarrassment for the governments and would make Bitcoin even stronger than the scenario of a success.

Why would a government spend so much money just to try an attack..


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PrimeNumber7
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February 06, 2020, 06:57:25 AM
 #34

If a government decides to buy a big stack of miners to perform the 51% attack i think other countries and bitcoin miners will not allow that and it would be a huge hash rate fight. But if the government wins then they can do some nasty moves on the blockchain.
You're underestimating the amount of resources and the benefits governments would gain from attacking Bitcoin. Cryptos will still thrive regardless of if the attack suceeds or not. Its not difficult for Bitcoin to fork to a different algroithm and the government would be left with a huge pile of useless ASICs.
If someone were to hypothetically successfully pull off a 51% attach on bitcoin, there would be a loss of confidence in all crypto coins, even if bitcoin changed its algorithm.

Assuming a government could control the means of production (China), the cost to produce new miners sufficient to execute a 51% attack is somewhere in the $2-3 billion range. For the case of China, this figure could be lower if the government confiscated large scale mining operations that are easier to detect.

I can only think of two reasons why a government would do this 1) they are unable to enforce the collection of taxes on a very large scale, or 2) dissidents are using bitcoin to pay for expenses related to doing harm to the government.

In addition to the cost of producing the miners, a country that pulled off a 51% attack on bitcoin would be known to the rest of the world that investing in that country, and housing IP in that country is not safe. Providing an estimate of these costs is above my pay grade, but I suspect it would be significant and a factor of the country's GDP, and international trade. I don't think a government would try this unless it was in a desperate situation.

Overall, I would consider the risk of a 51% attack to be low. If the bitcoin experiment were to fail, I would say it probably will not fail because of something that can be traced back to a 51% attack.


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Wind_FURY
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February 06, 2020, 07:46:56 AM
 #35

Following scenario: A government would like to destroy Bitcoin. It buys a significant number of ASICs to build up a huge mining farm and carries out a 51% attack.
From my point of view it will not be so easy to buy so many ASICs as once - what do you think?
Another question: Will it be noticed (how?) that somebody buys a big stack of ASICs and/or are we able to identify such a behavior monitoring the network's hashrate?


You are confused at the difference between a Government Power verses a rich person Power.

You outlined how a rich person would attack bitcoin, by buying what they needed to make a 51% attack.

A government would go about it differently.
1. Just Outlaw it and imprison anyone for 20 years that used Bitcoin.

2.  Seize / Confiscate any ASICs warehouse in your or cooperating counties, and use them for an 51% attack.

3.  Threaten the top 4 mining pool operators with jail or worse, if they fail to comply with your Government desire for a 51% attack.

4.  Tax the miners to make it an unprofitable venture, so the miners close down.

5  Full Scale war, physically destroy all ASIC warehouses with explosives and imprison any bitcoin supporters.

6. Start a worldwide Propaganda campaign  how bitcoin is funding terrorism and depleting earth's natural resources,
    So bitcoin never gains true adoption, and people refuse to use it , because they consider it disgusting.
    This would also correlate with the release of a Government Backed/Controled digital payment system
    which would be promoted and accepted as fiat in that country.

* While governments may never go that far, be aware, they have access to resources that mean they never have to buy 1 asic to destroy bitcoin. *


Good points, some of them, but very very far from practical in a realistic scenario. The cat is out of the bag, and how would you imprison people who pass around mere 1s and 0s?

You also seem to like to see Bitcoiners to be imprisoned. Hahaha.

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February 06, 2020, 12:52:18 PM
 #36

Do you have links about this? Where did you get that information from?

China can already do that. It has more than 51% of all Bitcoin mining power in pools. They can easily take over the pools.

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February 07, 2020, 03:03:11 AM
 #37

Following scenario: A government would like to destroy Bitcoin. It buys a significant number of ASICs to build up a huge mining farm and carries out a 51% attack.
From my point of view it will not be so easy to buy so many ASICs as once - what do you think?
Another question: Will it be noticed (how?) that somebody buys a big stack of ASICs and/or are we able to identify such a behavior monitoring the network's hashrate?


You are confused at the difference between a Government Power verses a rich person Power.

You outlined how a rich person would attack bitcoin, by buying what they needed to make a 51% attack.

A government would go about it differently.
1. Just Outlaw it and imprison anyone for 20 years that used Bitcoin.

2.  Seize / Confiscate any ASICs warehouse in your or cooperating counties, and use them for an 51% attack.

3.  Threaten the top 4 mining pool operators with jail or worse, if they fail to comply with your Government desire for a 51% attack.

4.  Tax the miners to make it an unprofitable venture, so the miners close down.

5  Full Scale war, physically destroy all ASIC warehouses with explosives and imprison any bitcoin supporters.

6. Start a worldwide Propaganda campaign  how bitcoin is funding terrorism and depleting earth's natural resources,
    So bitcoin never gains true adoption, and people refuse to use it , because they consider it disgusting.
    This would also correlate with the release of a Government Backed/Controled digital payment system
    which would be promoted and accepted as fiat in that country.

* While governments may never go that far, be aware, they have access to resources that mean they never have to buy 1 asic to destroy bitcoin. *


Good points, some of them, but very very far from practical in a realistic scenario. The cat is out of the bag, and how would you imprison people who pass around mere 1s and 0s?

You also seem to like to see Bitcoiners to be imprisoned. Hahaha.

1s & 0s can get you life without parole,
Maybe you should contact Ross Ulbricht and ask him.
Because his situation is no laughing matter.

TBH, I prefer it if the Government respected the rights of the people to privacy and removed all KYC/AML regulations.
But I don't deny the danger to people that opening flaunt government regulations.

 

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February 07, 2020, 04:47:23 AM
 #38

Do you have links about this? Where did you get that information from?

China can already do that. It has more than 51% of all Bitcoin mining power in pools. They can easily take over the pools.

people usually either fall for the FUD that has been around for years convincing them of powers of China when it comes to bitcoin whether it is in mining scene or in the market. or they confuse mining pools with mining farms and since there are mining pools with Chinese names (that have different servers around the world not just in China) they think China "owns" a lot of hashrate.

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February 07, 2020, 05:56:06 AM
 #39

Following scenario: A government would like to destroy Bitcoin. It buys a significant number of ASICs to build up a huge mining farm and carries out a 51% attack.
From my point of view it will not be so easy to buy so many ASICs as once - what do you think?
Another question: Will it be noticed (how?) that somebody buys a big stack of ASICs and/or are we able to identify such a behavior monitoring the network's hashrate?


I believe you should watch the video in this tweet, https://twitter.com/bitcoin/status/1225544194946555904

The incentive-structure works, it's better to mine honestly. Cool

Following scenario: A government would like to destroy Bitcoin. It buys a significant number of ASICs to build up a huge mining farm and carries out a 51% attack.
From my point of view it will not be so easy to buy so many ASICs as once - what do you think?
Another question: Will it be noticed (how?) that somebody buys a big stack of ASICs and/or are we able to identify such a behavior monitoring the network's hashrate?


You are confused at the difference between a Government Power verses a rich person Power.

You outlined how a rich person would attack bitcoin, by buying what they needed to make a 51% attack.

A government would go about it differently.
1. Just Outlaw it and imprison anyone for 20 years that used Bitcoin.

2.  Seize / Confiscate any ASICs warehouse in your or cooperating counties, and use them for an 51% attack.

3.  Threaten the top 4 mining pool operators with jail or worse, if they fail to comply with your Government desire for a 51% attack.

4.  Tax the miners to make it an unprofitable venture, so the miners close down.

5  Full Scale war, physically destroy all ASIC warehouses with explosives and imprison any bitcoin supporters.

6. Start a worldwide Propaganda campaign  how bitcoin is funding terrorism and depleting earth's natural resources,
    So bitcoin never gains true adoption, and people refuse to use it , because they consider it disgusting.
    This would also correlate with the release of a Government Backed/Controled digital payment system
    which would be promoted and accepted as fiat in that country.

* While governments may never go that far, be aware, they have access to resources that mean they never have to buy 1 asic to destroy bitcoin. *


Good points, some of them, but very very far from practical in a realistic scenario. The cat is out of the bag, and how would you imprison people who pass around mere 1s and 0s?

You also seem to like to see Bitcoiners to be imprisoned. Hahaha.

1s & 0s can get you life without parole,
Maybe you should contact Ross Ulbricht and ask him.
Because his situation is no laughing matter.


We're off-topic, this will be my last reply. Ross Ulbricht wasn't convicted for sending 1s and 0s. Maybe YOU should ask him.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ross_Ulbricht

Quote

In February 2015, Ulbricht was convicted of money laundering, computer hacking, conspiracy to traffic fraudulent identity documents, and conspiracy to traffic narcotics by means of the Internet.


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February 09, 2020, 12:36:13 PM
 #40

That explanation makes sense Grin

I did ask him for any links but he never got back. There is so much confusion and FUD surrounding nearly all aspects of crypto that people hear one thing and repeat it to others. In many cases people make it up as they go along. You are right, confusing mining pools with mining farms (and the hash rate) is probably one of the biggest reasons people believe China is in a position to control various aspects of Bitcoin. The reality is far more diverse.


Do you have links about this? Where did you get that information from?

China can already do that. It has more than 51% of all Bitcoin mining power in pools. They can easily take over the pools.

people usually either fall for the FUD that has been around for years convincing them of powers of China when it comes to bitcoin whether it is in mining scene or in the market. or they confuse mining pools with mining farms and since there are mining pools with Chinese names (that have different servers around the world not just in China) they think China "owns" a lot of hashrate.

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February 10, 2020, 05:31:17 AM
 #41

That explanation makes sense Grin

I did ask him for any links but he never got back. There is so much confusion and FUD surrounding nearly all aspects of crypto that people hear one thing and repeat it to others. In many cases people make it up as they go along. You are right, confusing mining pools with mining farms (and the hash rate) is probably one of the biggest reasons people believe China is in a position to control various aspects of Bitcoin. The reality is far more diverse.


Do you have links about this? Where did you get that information from?

China can already do that. It has more than 51% of all Bitcoin mining power in pools. They can easily take over the pools.

people usually either fall for the FUD that has been around for years convincing them of powers of China when it comes to bitcoin whether it is in mining scene or in the market. or they confuse mining pools with mining farms and since there are mining pools with Chinese names (that have different servers around the world not just in China) they think China "owns" a lot of hashrate.


Plus trolls/fudsters are taking advantage of the newbies' ignorance. But truly, if they understood what makes the network/protocol secure, and "who truly follows who", then they wouldn't be worried.

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February 10, 2020, 11:09:46 AM
 #42

Good points, some of them, but very very far from practical in a realistic scenario. The cat is out of the bag, and how would you imprison people who pass around mere 1s and 0s?

Just like you imprison somebody for carrying carbon, hydrogen nitrogen, and oxygen.
It's the same stuff that your body is made of, how can somebody go to prison for that?
Nobody will go to prison for 1 and 0 but you will go for prison if what those 1s and 0s make together is something deemed illegal just how you're going to prison for C21H23NO5.

If a government would want that much to get bitcoin eliminated from the economy they will not target the chain or nodes or the hash rate, they will go after users.
As I said before and others did, if they would make holding cryptocurrencies a felony with mandatory 25 years, would you still use it?

No 51% or Sybil or any kind of attacks orchestrated by the government will happen.

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February 10, 2020, 12:41:20 PM
 #43

Yes that always seems to happen. Newbies usually are those are most vulnerable to falling for anything trolls and FUD spreading users might post. It is hard to blame them for being ignorant, maybe they are just beginning to understand what crypto is how it works so fall prey to anything anybody writes here. The onus really is on the user posting to ensure they are responsible but that is not always the case - hence the words trolls and fudsters come to mind as you put it.

Plus trolls/fudsters are taking advantage of the newbies' ignorance. But truly, if they understood what makes the network/protocol secure, and "who truly follows who", then they wouldn't be worried.

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February 11, 2020, 08:59:31 AM
 #44

Good points, some of them, but very very far from practical in a realistic scenario. The cat is out of the bag, and how would you imprison people who pass around mere 1s and 0s?

Just like you imprison somebody for carrying carbon, hydrogen nitrogen, and oxygen.
It's the same stuff that your body is made of, how can somebody go to prison for that?
Nobody will go to prison for 1 and 0 but you will go for prison if what those 1s and 0s make together is something deemed illegal just how you're going to prison for C21H23NO5.

If a government would want that much to get bitcoin eliminated from the economy they will not target the chain or nodes or the hash rate, they will go after users.


Kjoas76 presented a valid debate about confiscating ASICs to try to stop Bitcoin, but using them to successfully 51% attack the network? Very debatable, https://twitter.com/bitcoin/status/1225544194946555904

Quote

As I said before and others did, if they would make holding cryptocurrencies a felony with mandatory 25 years, would you still use it?

No 51% or Sybil or any kind of attacks orchestrated by the government will happen.


No. What kind of law could the any government make to outlaw software/code for a ledger?

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February 11, 2020, 09:56:04 AM
 #45

No. What kind of law could the any government make to outlaw software/code for a ledger?

Let's start
- ban all atms
- banks must stop servicing any cryptocurrency exchanges
- merchants are not allowed to offer bitcoin payments

We're back at SR levels in a second. What are you going to use is for? Look how shiny your 1s and 0s are?

Besides, we're talking about an extreme scenario here, some of you might be too young or have lived in a democracy all your life to even grasp what a dictatorship regime can do. They wouldn't even need a law, just grab 20 people who are known for dealing with cryptos make a lot of noise about it and throw them in prison for 40 years. On the forum, everybody is tough, in real life, 99% of those that aren't afraid of anything will piss their pants the moment the police knocks at the door at 2 am.

Let me quote :

'just have to catch some miners, gather them up on stage and shoot them in the head. (Or more realistically put them in prison). Don't hypothesize weird technical attacks when boring things will do.'

Kjoas76 presented a valid debate about confiscating ASICs to try to stop Bitcoin, but using them to successfully 51% attack the network? Very debatable, https://twitter.com/bitcoin/status/1225544194946555904

People are thinking this wrong.

It is like a government would suddenly buy 2 million s17 and immediately launch an attack. Why?

Even a 9 yo would come with a better plan. Why not build gradually your hashrate?
Since it's the actual state doing so they get a zero cents electric bill, they even earn some coins which they can dump immediately on the market, pushing the price down, making it harder for other miners to keep mining and thus pushing down the actual hash rate that is done by independent miners.

If they add 30 PH of hash rate now and manage to get the price back at 8k 1/3 of the old true hashpower will be gone as almost any s9 will be losing money unless free energy. Do I have to add also the fact that if they manage to get ahold of 20-25% of that rate they would simply mine empty blocks and we all know where that would lead to?

Yeah overnight, the attack is not possible but if they would want and put all resources on table 3 billion is nothing.

But again, WHY would they want to do such a thing?


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February 12, 2020, 05:19:06 AM
 #46

No. What kind of law could the any government make to outlaw software/code for a ledger?

Let's start
- ban all atms
- banks must stop servicing any cryptocurrency exchanges
- merchants are not allowed to offer bitcoin payments

We're back at SR levels in a second. What are you going to use is for? Look how shiny your 1s and 0s are?


You didn't get the context. The question actually was, what can any government do to outlaw the writing of code/development of software for a "new kind of database"?

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February 12, 2020, 06:10:26 AM
 #47

No. What kind of law could the any government make to outlaw software/code for a ledger?

Let's start
- ban all atms
- banks must stop servicing any cryptocurrency exchanges
- merchants are not allowed to offer bitcoin payments

We're back at SR levels in a second. What are you going to use is for? Look how shiny your 1s and 0s are?


You didn't get the context. The question actually was, what can any government do to outlaw the writing of code/development of software for a "new kind of database"?

What makes you think government can't do that? US government already limit A.I/cryptography exports and forcing restrict GitHub account from some country.
They could ban specific type of cryptography which used on popular cryptocurrency such as ECDSA combined with secp256k1.

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February 12, 2020, 07:10:11 AM
 #48

No. What kind of law could the any government make to outlaw software/code for a ledger?

Let's start
- ban all atms
- banks must stop servicing any cryptocurrency exchanges
- merchants are not allowed to offer bitcoin payments

We're back at SR levels in a second. What are you going to use is for? Look how shiny your 1s and 0s are?


You didn't get the context. The question actually was, what can any government do to outlaw the writing of code/development of software for a "new kind of database"?

What makes you think government can't do that? US government already limit A.I/cryptography exports and forcing restrict GitHub account from some country.
They could ban specific type of cryptography which used on popular cryptocurrency such as ECDSA combined with secp256k1.

The U.K. already proposed to forbid publishing open source, non custodial wallet software in one of their AMLD5 proposals. Luckily they decided not to include that rule in their final draft, but they are definitely eyeballing it.

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February 12, 2020, 05:58:58 PM
Merited by MagicByt3 (1)
 #49

You didn't get the context. The question actually was, what can any government do to outlaw the writing of code/development of software for a "new kind of database"?

I told you in my previous post
Just how they can allow C12H22O11  which is sugar and ban C21H23NO5 which is heroin.
Just how pinging a poe server is not a crime but a dos attack is, it's basically the same thing, right?
Are viruses and malware attacks legal? They are just a bunch of 0s and 1s.
I a crime having a database with the SSN of a thousand people?

What makes you think government can't do that? US government already limit A.I/cryptography exports and forcing restrict GitHub account from some country.
They could ban specific type of cryptography which used on popular cryptocurrency such as ECDSA combined with secp256k1.

I sometimes think people are really underestimating what an insane government or political party can do!
If one of them would want to that they will!

Fortunately for most of us living in democracies, no matter how much you criticize the "authoritarian" governments, nothing on this scale will be done against cryptos. But good luck if you're living in Turkmenistan or other centra Asia former URSS republics.
You won't be wondering what they can do  anymore!


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February 13, 2020, 05:09:02 AM
 #50

What makes you think government can't do that? US government already limit A.I/cryptography exports and forcing restrict GitHub account from some country.
They could ban specific type of cryptography which used on popular cryptocurrency such as ECDSA combined with secp256k1.

I sometimes think people are really underestimating what an insane government or political party can do!
If one of them would want to that they will!

true, but the cat is already out of the bag. if a crazy government some day pulled something like that then it will only raise a lot of alarms among regular people who were not using any kind of encryption for anything they were doing so far and they will start thinking about using it.
it's like the Snowden effect, although US Gov has been snooping but nobody was thinking about protecting themselves, when they found out about it everyone was thinking about protecting their privacy.

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February 13, 2020, 06:30:46 AM
 #51

No. What kind of law could the any government make to outlaw software/code for a ledger?

Let's start
- ban all atms
- banks must stop servicing any cryptocurrency exchanges
- merchants are not allowed to offer bitcoin payments

We're back at SR levels in a second. What are you going to use is for? Look how shiny your 1s and 0s are?


You didn't get the context. The question actually was, what can any government do to outlaw the writing of code/development of software for a "new kind of database"?

What makes you think government can't do that? US government already limit A.I/cryptography exports and forcing restrict GitHub account from some country.
They could ban specific type of cryptography which used on popular cryptocurrency such as ECDSA combined with secp256k1.


I said outlaw. To make illegal under a country's constitution. You too didn't get the context. You believe Satoshi is liable for a crime because he invented Bitcoin? You believe all coders can be imprisoned for building/coding decentralized networks? You believe it's constitutional for the government to convict users for using, and running software for a new kind of database? 1s and 0s.

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February 14, 2020, 10:00:28 AM
 #52

I think the government does that thing because they do not believe the essence of the bitcoin or any cryptocurrency. Some so many people dont believe in bitcoin because they consider the cryptocurrency as a threat to many government agencies and establishments that process the transaction between money. Still, bitcoin is so helpful in many ways. It would be hard for the government to remove or to delete the bitcoins because if they are successful in doing so, there are still many currencies that can be valuable as bitcoin, there are so many currencies here in this forum, the government will find it so hard to delete it all, they will need a billion of money to do that. Some countries accept the cryptocurrency and this so good for them, some article that I have read is that some students use bitcoin to pay their tuition in the universities. Why can other countries not do that thing? Where it is so beneficial to many of us.

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February 15, 2020, 10:35:13 AM
 #53

If a government would want that much to get bitcoin eliminated from the economy they will not target the chain or nodes or the hash rate, they will go after users.
As I said before and others did, if they would make holding cryptocurrencies a felony with mandatory 25 years, would you still use it?

That makes sense, however, there is an essential factor you seem to be missing, a single government can only enforce rules upon its citizens, if the U.S bans crypto altogether, the Russians, Chinese, Iranians and perhaps some European countries would want to buy it more than anything, banning crypto is a risky move to any government if done individually because jumping out of the train does not make it stop, it could simply keep moving and you will be left behind, you need to actually STOP the train, and that would be by "destroying" bitcoin and not just ban it.
 
I pretty much like Saifedean Ammous's (the author of The Bitcoin Standard) statement where he talks about killing bitcoin

Quote
“The way for them to kill Bitcoin is for them to make the economic incentive to use Bitcoin irrelevant — to make the demand for using Bitcoin go away at the source,”, “They need to offer a technology that is better than Bitcoin — that can obviate the need for Bitcoin. Or, at least, they need to try.”

Whenever there are incentives to using bitcoin, people will use it, some countries have up to the death penalty for smoking weed and a mandatory 10 years for owning 1 gram of weed, I have personally lived in a country with such rules, and almost half of them smoke weed on the daily.

Another problem in banning bitcoin is that in most countries law amendment can only be adopted by the national legislature and not the government. In a democracy-based country, the legislature represents the people, if the people want bitcoin you can't ban it that easily, it won't work.

I could go on and on forever explaining how banning bitcoin is not easy, in fact, a 51% attack would be easier in terms of the government's limitations, but even that might end up ugly for them.

With that said, a 51% attack by government/s is doable and we as a community should be prepared for such attacks rather than completely ignoring them, just my thought!.

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February 15, 2020, 07:46:05 PM
 #54

If a government would want that much to get bitcoin eliminated from the economy they will not target the chain or nodes or the hash rate, they will go after users.
As I said before and others did, if they would make holding cryptocurrencies a felony with mandatory 25 years, would you still use it?

That makes sense, however, there is an essential factor you seem to be missing, a single government can only enforce rules upon its citizens, if the U.S bans crypto altogether, the Russians, Chinese, Iranians and perhaps some European countries would want to buy it more than anything, banning crypto is a risky move to any government if done individually because jumping out of the train does not make it stop, it could simply keep moving and you will be left behind, you need to actually STOP the train, and that would be by "destroying" bitcoin and not just ban it.

And one for you too...
You're underestimating the power of the US and its influence, and this comes from an EU citizen, not some 2nd amendment freak.

Let's cut China out of the picture because you know that if the US sees BTC as a threat the Chinese would have gone with the ban already.
Who is left, Russia and Iran, with an economy the size of texas? North Korea? And even those won't encourage usage, all of them are far more control orientated to allow the spread of cryptocurrencies, they won't take a bit of the poison apple just to piss off the US.
As for Europe, we're still too heavily interlinked with the US, even if some might try to counter this some will ally with the Us view.

And since we're at 51% scenario, imagine how this "ban" or whatever it is called would affect the chain security...
We would be lucky if we would drop only to 1k in the first phase.

With that said, a 51% attack by government/s is doable and we as a community should be prepared for such attacks rather than completely ignoring them, just my thought!.

How can you be prepared for this? Grin

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February 16, 2020, 08:16:35 PM
 #55

You're underestimating the power of the US and its influence, and this comes from an EU citizen, not some 2nd amendment freak.

I am not sure if I am underestimating their power or you are overestimating it, the U.S has been slapping sanctions on Russia, North Korea, Iran, China, Syria, well you name it, and the results are not as bad, the earth has not stopped spinning.



The projected results are even worse



But what do I know? I might be really "underestimating the power of the US"

Quote
Let's cut China out of the picture because you know that if the US sees BTC as a threat the Chinese would have gone with the ban already.

BTC could be more like a threat to the U.S dollar, this does not mean it has to be at the same level of threat to any other economy.

Quote
And since we're at 51% scenario, imagine how this "ban" or whatever it is called would affect the chain security...
We would be lucky if we would drop only to 1k in the first phase.

So you really think if the U.S bans bitcoin mining for an example, the rest of the world will do the same? Also, I would like to hear your comment about how would the U.S government go about banning bitcoin anyway, does their constitution give the government enough rights to do that?

Quote
How can you be prepared for this? Grin

First of all by admitting that a 51% attack on BTC is very possible, and is IMO the most powerful way to fight bitcoin, way more effective than simply trying to ban it.

As far as being technically prepared for such an attack, well I might be the worst person to be asked  Grin, but some interesting idea's like "the delayed block submission penalty." or "Komodo’s Delayed Proof of Work".

Other methods like increasing confirmations required by merchants and individuals, perhaps someone might make an automated system that sensors the migration of a large enough portion of hashrate (assuming the hash power that is used to perform the 51% has already been on the main blockchain),  community consensus to change the mining algothroim to a GPU-Only algthorim so if the attack happens it won't last long.

I don't know, those are off the top of my head, I am sure more intelligent people like yourself have better ways to prepare for such an attack rather than thinking that it simply won't happen:Smiley

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February 17, 2020, 03:38:29 AM
 #56

You're underestimating the power of the US and its influence, and this comes from an EU citizen, not some 2nd amendment freak.

I am not sure if I am underestimating their power or you are overestimating it, the U.S has been slapping sanctions on Russia, North Korea, Iran, China, Syria, well you name it, and the results are not as bad, the earth has not stopped spinning.
The projected results are even worse

But what do I know? I might be really "underestimating the power of the US"

Gdp means nothing...sspecially when it is :
Quote
A chart shows the world's top dozen national economies by purchasing power parity (PPP) as of 2018, along with projected growth for next year.
PPP simply means that if you earn a $ in Indonesia you can buy two pieces of bread unlike in the US where you can buy half.
But, you still in both cases have 1$!

Does your PPP mean anything when we talk about mining gear for example?
Is a s17 10 times cheaper in Mali than in Norway? Because by PPP it should be! Cheesy

Let me give you two or maybe three examples of why it doesn't.

You have 100 people earning 300 euros a month, that's 30k, but each must spend 250 for food and housing, in the end, they have left 5k.
You have 10 people earning 2000 euros a month, that's 20k, but they only spend 1000 on food and housing, int he end they have left 10k for investing...
With which group you want to deal?

And even if the GDP would matter,  it would matter more where that money is spent and how.
Because UAE might be wealthy but when the crown family throws away 500 million on English football teams and another measly 50 million on horse racing.. you're starting to wonder.

In the graph, you showed India tops France and Germany.
Nice, let's look at how much the world thinks of it.
India and Pakistan bombed each other, two nuclear powers, two huge economies...nobody cared.
Now imagine Germany bombing France....

In 2007 US coughed twice., it sent the entire global economy to its deathbed.

So you really think if the U.S bans bitcoin mining for an example, the rest of the world will do the same? Also, I would like to hear your comment about how would the U.S government go about banning bitcoin anyway, does their constitution give the government enough rights to do that?

I wasn't talking about the US banning only mining, but banning usage. Who would care about mining where there is nothing left to do with them?

The constitution isn't preventing the government to ban anything aside from things that go against human rights.
Just how they've banned drugs, pesticides, cars, and Huawei equipment they can ban everything they want.

First of all by admitting that a 51% attack on BTC is very possible, and is IMO the most powerful way to fight bitcoin, way more effective than simply trying to ban it.

As others have said also, I stand by my opinion, why would be something that technical?
Raid coinbase with a SWAT team and from 3 billion in equipment you can do it with 10 million worth of it.  Wink

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February 17, 2020, 09:15:46 AM
 #57


If a government would want that much to get bitcoin eliminated from the economy they will not target the chain or nodes or the hash rate, they will go after users.
As I said before and others did, if they would make holding cryptocurrencies a felony with mandatory 25 years, would you still use it?


That makes sense, however, there is an essential factor you seem to be missing, a single government can only enforce rules upon its citizens, if the U.S bans crypto altogether, the Russians, Chinese, Iranians and perhaps some European countries would want to buy it more than anything, banning crypto is a risky move to any government if done individually because jumping out of the train does not make it stop, it could simply keep moving and you will be left behind, you need to actually STOP the train, and that would be by "destroying" bitcoin and not just ban it.
 

No, it doesn't. We don't actually "hold cryptocurrencies". What kind of law could the politicians propose/make to outlaw this new kind of ledger? Should developing such a ledger be illegal? Why?

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February 18, 2020, 01:11:19 AM
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 #58

Gdp means nothing...sspecially when it is :

I find it amusing how you take a measurement scale that is well known and considered and say it means nothing, GDP PPP is not less important than nominal GDP,

Quote
GDP comparisons using PPP are arguably more useful than those using nominal GDP when assessing a nation's domestic market because PPP takes into account the relative cost of local goods, services and inflation rates of the country, rather than using international market exchange rates which may distort the real differences in per capita income.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)


Quote
In 2007 US coughed twice., it sent the entire global economy to its deathbed.

Using GDP PPP china surpasses the U.S using the Nominal GDP China is not far from the U.S, taking share in world exports china has a much larger share, I don't understand why are you underestimating the economic strength of China. If China coughs twice it will also send the entire global economy to hell.

Quote
As others have said also, I stand by my opinion, why would be something that technical?
Raid coinbase with a SWAT team and from 3 billion in equipment you can do it with 10 million worth of it.  Wink

We are kind of going off-topic here ( a lot of economics) but I have a better argument to put us back on track, the U.S does not ban Bitcoin, they don't have a problem with it, China performs a 51%:Smiley

or both China and the U.S have no problem with Bitcoin but UAE, Saudi, Iran does, or even any other prince/king decides to play with 2-5 Billion Dollars (because he can)

Current hashrate is about 120 million TH , half that is 60  million TH that is 4,285,714 Antminer S9 or 4285714*80$ = $342,857,120 , or 1,090,909 T17+ (55th) *1000$ = $1,090,909,090 (slightly higher than 1 billion) and just about 2,000 megawatts worth of power, I am pretty sure a king or prince can spare 1 billion + maybe half a billion for infrastructure and 2,000 megawatt worth of electricity.

Attacking bitcoin for economic profit does not make sense, but attacking it for fun, experimental purposes or protecting one's economy makes a lot of sense, the above calculation is just an estimate, of course, if someone decides to buy that many gears they will cause gears prices to rise, but to what extent? another billion dollars? two? that much money is still pretty affordable to many countries and individuals around the globe, after the halving a huge chunk of that hash rate will leave the network for good and if the price does not moon, the attack will be a lot cheaper.

I find it really naive to think that X person won't do something in one way because Z person can do it in another way, ignoring the possibility of something happening is a terrible idea, IMO anything that has the slightest chance of happening must be discussed seriously and not ignored.

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February 18, 2020, 02:10:35 PM
 #59

First:
If China coughs twice it will also send the entire global economy to hell.

China is really coughing to death and I don't see anything going to hell!

I find it amusing how you take a measurement scale that is well known and considered and say it means nothing, GDP PPP is not less important than nominal GDP,

Because PPP is a lie to make poor people feel better, telling them that eating a rotten piece of meat in N'Djamena is the same as having breakfast at La Coupole.

Let me break this down for you:

GDP PPP per capita:
 United States   62,606
 Romania   26,447 (picked the poorest country in EU without Cyrillic letters)

So in theory, for every 6 BTC an American can buy a Romanian would be able to pick up 2.6 BTC...a 2.3 ratio!
BUT that's a lie!!!!

The average wage in the US is 63k while in Romania ~ 7200. the ratio just went to 8!
But after all that people buy for living the average American is left with 8000 while Romanian pay 93% of their income for basic food and healthcare and stuff and are left with 500$.

So, while an American the end of the year would be able to buy 0.8 BTC the Romanian would be able to buy less 0.05BTC
This although the PPP told us that the difference is  2.3 NOT 16!

Quote
UAE, Saudi, Iran does, or even any other prince/king decides to play with 2-5 Billion Dollars (because he can)

Current hashrate is about 120 million TH , half that is 60  million TH that is 4,285,714 Antminer S9 or 4285714*80$ = $342,857,120 , or 1,090,909 T17+ (55th) *1000$ = $1,090,909,090 (slightly higher than 1 billion) and just about 2,000 megawatts worth of power, I am pretty sure a king or prince can spare 1 billion + maybe half a billion for infrastructure and 2,000 megawatt worth of electricity.

Attacking bitcoin for economic profit does not make sense, but attacking it for fun, experimental purposes or protecting one's economy makes a lot of sense, the above calculation is just an estimate, of course, if someone decides to buy that many gears they will cause gears prices to rise, but to what extent? another billion dollars? two? that much money is still pretty affordable to many countries and individuals around the globe, after the halving a huge chunk of that hash rate will leave the network for good and if the price does not moon, the attack will be a lot cheaper.

I find it really naive to think that X person won't do something in one way because Z person can do it in another way, ignoring the possibility of something happening is a terrible idea, IMO anything that has the slightest chance of happening must be discussed seriously and not ignored.

On paper, it's all possible but in reality...

First, how do you get that 4,285,714 s9?

And this is when economic strat to play their role, bitmain doesn't have that many chips and they need to also put an order on TSMC for that and if TSMC is busy, could it still be done? If its this huge order and must be done quickly just how much not are only prices going to spike, not even mentioning bribing a lot of guys to keep quiet? Not even mentioning the fact that for 2000MW of power you would need something well over a billion, two billion would be simply the gas powerplant the cheapest option.

Could this be done in secrecy? No way!
So until you manage to manufacture that many miners build the infrastructure, ship and install them there is a lot of time to take some measures, and code is pretty faster than a cargo ship.

So it is possible, on paper at least! Should we be worried about this scenario? I don't think so!
And anyway, there is nothing we could really do if someone is bent on spending billions or tens of billions attacking it!

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February 19, 2020, 01:37:33 AM
 #60

China is really coughing to death and I don't see anything going to hell!

How? with 2,000 deaths of coronavirus? more than that die from car accidents every month in the U.S alone, but even with that "$34 billion were wiped out of apple alone", oil prices feel from $68 to $52 as china imports the most crude oil in the world, everything has been affected by the small and silent half cough of china, china is a "global supply chain", look around your house and you will see china in every corner, if the virus is not contained and cured soon enough, things will get pretty ugly all over the globe.

Quote
Let me break this down for you:
GDP PPP per capita:

GDP per capita is not the same as GDP (PPP), you seem to have gotten things mixed up a bit, the example you used is PPP per capita which is pretty dependant on the population size, that's why you see Qatar is placed first but 51th in GDP (PPP). you should probably browse this website http://statisticstimes.com/index.php to get a better understanding of the differences, although this is really going off-topic.


Quote
First, how do you get that 4,285,714 s9?
Money!

Quote
And this is when economic strat to play their role, bitmain doesn't have that many chips and they need to also put an order on TSMC for that and if TSMC is busy, could it still be done? If its this huge order and must be done quickly just how much not are only prices going to spike, not even mentioning bribing a lot of guys to keep quiet?

The king can have 10 countries and 1000 companies work for him to collect all the miners he needs, money buys everything, he can even buy mining farms in China or any other place.


Quote
Could this be done in secrecy? No way!
So until you manage to manufacture that many miners build the infrastructure, ship and install them there is a lot of time to take some measures, and code is pretty faster than a cargo ship.


There is no need to keep this a secret, the King's country can simply say they are going to support bitcoin mining by holding a large mining farm if people find out, a dozen of mining gears get moved around, does anyone know where did the last million S9s go to and who bought them?? anyone who has both power and money can potentially and easily accumulate all the hashrate they need, in fact, the Chinese president now does "technically" have control over all the mining farms in China and can perform the attack if he wants, but you are suggesting that he probably wouldn't, therefore there is no risk?

Quote
And anyway, there is nothing we could really do if someone is bent on spending billions or tens of billions attacking it!

There must be, it's to be or not to be, in 2041 BTC has to be worth nearly half a million dollars  for the chain to be as secured against 51% as is today, if it's worth only 100k then it will be 80% less secure than it is now.

I do believe in the role of economy, more people and businesses owning bitcoin gives it more value and more security as whoever uses it should at some point "invest" a portion of what they have to secure the network, I don't discard that role, but there is nothing wrong with planning for a technical-based solution rather than completely counting on the assumption that "nobody will perform a 51% because it's expensive or difficult".


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February 19, 2020, 02:24:54 AM
 #61

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look around your house and you will see china in every corner

China has 2 trillion in exports, just the EU (not Europe) has 5.5, if everything in your house is made in China, your house is made in Germany!!!!

you seem to have gotten things mixed up a bit, the example you used is PPP per capita which is pretty dependant on the population size,

Both GDP and GDP PPP have a per capital value, and in both cases is it divided by population.
I showed you that example because although in PPP terms they make 26k$ a year, in real life where it matters they only do 12k$!
And at the end of the year, they can't afford 2,6 BTC because BTC doesn't give a damn about PPP but about real $, with PPP $ you might buy bitcoin cash or bitcoin gold but not BTC.  Grin

But yeah, we're going off-topic, let's continue this (if) in the economics section.
Back to the mining

anyone who has both power and money can potentially and easily accumulate all the hashrate they need, in fact, the Chinese president now does "technically" have control over all the mining farms in China and can perform the attack if he wants, but you are suggesting that he probably wouldn't, therefore there is no risk?

There is always the risk, that doesn't mean it will happen, and with almost nothing, we can really do, so, what's the point of not sleeping the nights?
And if someone is bent on spending billions or tens of billions attacking it continuously, even if we find a bulletproof solution to a 51% attack, there is still the possibility of a Sybil attack then....

If we talk about somebody with unlimited money, unlimited political power, nothing is safe!

There must be, it's to be or not to be, in 2041 BTC has to be worth nearly half a million dollars  for the chain to be as secured against 51% as is today, if it's worth only 100k then it will be 80% less secure than it is now.

I do believe in the role of economy, more people and businesses owning bitcoin gives it more value and more security as whoever uses it should at some point "invest" a portion of what they have to secure the network, I don't discard that role, but there is nothing wrong with planning for a technical-based solution rather than completely counting on the assumption that "nobody will perform a 51% because it's expensive or difficult".

Hihi, I remembered we had a discussion like that, and on this, we agree!

I think that at one point the big business in crypto will have no choice but to take care of a part of the burden involved in securing the chain.
When you're doing millions in trading, you're having thousands of users with your bitcoin card, you're getting millions in bets the last thing you want is this all of this to go down forever, not just the price going down as business will continue even with BTC at 1k, think Silkroad for example, but completely down with the chain unsecured and 51% making a mess of it and faith in cryptos fucked forever.

So, once there will be signs of dangers the big guys in this will have to protect their business.


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February 19, 2020, 08:01:05 AM
 #62

I would seriously want to see a government attempting that, so that we can make a a$$ out of them. Just imagine spending Billions of taxpayers money on attempting a stunt like this and then having it failed due to a fork maneuver to counter it.  Wink

Even better yet, messing them around by jumping from one coin to the next to waste even more of their money wasted on this. Bitcoiners will quickly shift to the next Alt coin or the "new" Bitcoin with the same features, if it was known that a government funded mining operation was trying to sabotage the experiment.

The public <voters> will crucify those government employees, when they find out that they are wasting tax money on stupid projects like that and possibly risk being voted out in the next election.  Wink

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February 23, 2020, 08:17:43 PM
 #63

Following scenario: A government would like to destroy Bitcoin. It buys a significant number of ASICs to build up a huge mining farm and carries out a 51% attack.
From my point of view it will not be so easy to buy so many ASICs as once - what do you think?
Another question: Will it be noticed (how?) that somebody buys a big stack of ASICs and/or are we able to identify such a behavior monitoring the network's hashrate?

Such an attack can lead to nothing significant, but an attackers wallet transaction reversal, and also such an attack may result in chain split, where most of the honest nodes will not follow the attackers version of blockchain.
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February 24, 2020, 04:16:00 AM
 #64

People get hung up on 51% attack.

Here is an attack that can destroy bitcoin using nothing but economics.

The Confiscation & Hack Attacks
Each Country in the world continually Confiscates Bitcoin earned by criminals and auctions it to the public.
Hired Hackers to constantly steal bitcoins from Rich People & exchanges to Sell on the Markets.

What this does is keep the price of bitcoin lower than the actual mining costs forcing more miners into bankruptcy and eventually bankrupting the ASIC manufacturers. This will eventually cause the network to enter a death spiral as the ability to find a new block will be beyond the majority of the public.

* Advantages to this attack, is the governments profit the entire time during the attacks, using the profits to fund even more attacks.

Funny thing is:  This attack is occurring now and will only increase as time passes.

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February 24, 2020, 09:05:07 PM
 #65

People get hung up on 51% attack.

Here is an attack that can destroy bitcoin using nothing but economics.

The Confiscation & Hack Attacks
Each Country in the world continually Confiscates Bitcoin earned by criminals and auctions it to the public.
Hired Hackers to constantly steal bitcoins from Rich People & exchanges to Sell on the Markets.

What this does is keep the price of bitcoin lower than the actual mining costs forcing more miners into bankruptcy and eventually bankrupting the ASIC manufacturers. This will eventually cause the network to enter a death spiral as the ability to find a new block will be beyond the majority of the public.

* Advantages to this attack, is the governments profit the entire time during the attacks, using the profits to fund even more attacks.

Funny thing is:  This attack is occurring now and will only increase as time passes.

Even if they bankrupt the large farms with this type of thing there would always be a collective out there who could mine and keep the chain going also if the large players were to be forced out it would just hand the network back to the small miners that in turn would boost adoption further as more smaller miners jumped back on the chain.  It would take some time for the DIFF to re-adjust back down but the attack would not stop miners from coming online if they thought they could get a slice of the pie again.

More people than ever are starting to understand how to store there crypto in paper wallets or hardware wallets I think over time we will see more security coming to the way we store our crypto so hackers would have a hard time hacking cold or hardware wallets.

Exchanges too are stepping up there security what we would like to see is more DEX markets that actually have some liquidity in them the reason people don't trade in them now is they have very little price action or traders there but the more regulation pushes on these places maybe in time we will see a solid DEX start that has some liquidity and can attract traders and investors to it.

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February 25, 2020, 03:37:36 AM
 #66

People get hung up on 51% attack.

Here is an attack that can destroy bitcoin using nothing but economics.

The Confiscation & Hack Attacks
Each Country in the world continually Confiscates Bitcoin earned by criminals and auctions it to the public.
Hired Hackers to constantly steal bitcoins from Rich People & exchanges to Sell on the Markets.

What this does is keep the price of bitcoin lower than the actual mining costs forcing more miners into bankruptcy and eventually bankrupting the ASIC manufacturers. This will eventually cause the network to enter a death spiral as the ability to find a new block will be beyond the majority of the public.

* Advantages to this attack, is the governments profit the entire time during the attacks, using the profits to fund even more attacks.

Funny thing is:  This attack is occurring now and will only increase as time passes.

Even if they bankrupt the large farms with this type of thing there would always be a collective out there who could mine and keep the chain going also if the large players were to be forced out it would just hand the network back to the small miners that in turn would boost adoption further as more smaller miners jumped back on the chain.  It would take some time for the DIFF to re-adjust back down but the attack would not stop miners from coming online if they thought they could get a slice of the pie again.

And what was the price per bitcoin before ASICS, ~$13 per bitcoin.
That is what returning to small miners will do for you.
Plus the months to year long waits for the difficulty to drop, and the Bad PR to sour Bitcoin for all investors.
It won't be deemed Future Money, but a Past Failure.  Tongue

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February 25, 2020, 05:36:43 AM
 #67

Don't be bothered by trolls. The Bitcoin blockchain is made up of people. Faced with an immediate threat, everyone WILL come to consensus, fork all bad-actors away, and make honest-actors out of them.

https://twitter.com/bitcoin/status/1225544194946555904

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