Elliott Wave... RSI... MACD ... How much should i rely on them to see BTC move?

[yamasis]

Do some people out there use the indicators to analyze BTC move?

I have been studying BTC price chart with the indicators but found that indicator's accuracy rate is not high..

Maybe, i am not good at it.

Any advice?


Btw, has anyone experienced BISPEX exchange known as its insurance funding?

[1714673487]

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[1714673487]

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[Darooghe]

The problem with Elliot wave is too much guesswork, show a chart to 5 Elliot wave analyzer and you get 5 different wave counts. Also, I've looked enough charts that Elliot wave seem to exist in the market. but it's hard to make money out of it because you don't know which part of the wave you are. but with benefit of hindsight, it's easy to claim "here, it works". hence There is no wave pattern that can predict future market moves. Especially in an unregulated field like cryptocurrency.

[pajak666]

They are just indicators and you need a bunch of them showing signal signs to consider a trade. They all have some % of success and all combined makes for a high probability SIGNAL. This is still not confirmed that it will produce a positive trade. MACD and RSI are popular because they are very easy to understand. Problem is they are only oscillators and they can show you some change in tendencies but there is no way it will be a signal on its own and building strategies based on them is rather bad idea. You can use them as additional filters but not the main source of information.

[hugeblack]

The problem with this theory is that it is based mainly on the natural rhythm of crowd psychology in the market, which is manifested in waves, which may be considered wrong in a market like Bitcoin market.

We have more than one influence that can play the market, which makes the effect of crowd psychology less accurate in predicting prices, especially with the price fluctuates greatly in a short time and there are a lot of trading bots that make the decision-making mechanism based on central platforms more than it is the thinking of users.

Generally, the key to achieving an accuracy ratio is to calculate it correctly although I doubt its accuracy.

[Wexlike]

Very difficult to predict anything based on these indicators. I rather prefer to follow a few high profile speculators like

dmwardjr (very detailed godmode technical analysis)
his thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.0

exstasie (rather large scale sentiment analysis)
his thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.0

Josh Olszewicz (youtube crypto analysis)
https://www.youtube.com/user/carpenoctom

and Masterluc with his beast of a chart
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/

[figmentofmyass]

Very difficult to predict anything based on these indicators. I rather prefer to follow a few high profile speculators like

dmwardjr (very detailed godmode technical analysis)
his thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.0

exstasie (rather large scale sentiment analysis)
his thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.0

Josh Olszewicz (youtube crypto analysis)
https://www.youtube.com/user/carpenoctom

and Masterluc with his beast of a chart
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/

+1 on everyone you mentioned. all of them are very rigorous, but each has a very distinct style. the speculation board is super lucky to have people like dmwardjr and exstasie giving away their TA for free. i've been in paid groups with much worse analysis.

one more analyst i'd mention is xxxx123abcxxxx. he's been spot on several times re major cycle tops and bottoms. he says he's too busy to make a new thread for 2020 but he still pops by his old thread to offer occasional forecasts:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg53681405#msg53681405

I have been studying BTC price chart with the indicators but found that indicator's accuracy rate is not high..

EW is easily butchered, which leads to faulty analysis. it takes years to master the rules and especially the guidelines to intuitively feel out the market. i recommend sharing your EW counts here so we can offer some critique and see where you might be going wrong.

indicators like RSI and MACD are about as accurate on BTC/USD as any other instrument. taken alone, they are never enough to reliably forecast the price. they offer one piece of the puzzle---specifically, they gauge market momentum. you need other pieces too: bar charts or candlestick charts so you can recognize bullish/bearish setups, a "big picture" cycle analysis strategy like elliott wave, measures of trend like moving averages/EMAs/channels, and volume to help confirm the dominant trend direction.

[adaseb]

I wouldn't follow anyone giving trading signals. What happens if they make you good money and then all of a sudden they stop posting their trades? What will you do then?

Best to learn trading by yourself. However keep in mind that at best any type of indicators like RSI, MACD, moving average they rarely have a success rate higher than 20% or so. Most of the time they never work. The trick is to only trade the range to filter out the losers, and keep your stop tights and let your winners run. This is how the whales make most of their profits.

The reason why they don't work most of the time is because the signals can be both "Long signal" or "Short signal" since there is so much noise out there. So basically trend is your friend. What is the trend now? I would say neutral until we break the $10K area and then its bullish.

[exstasie]

I wouldn't follow anyone giving trading signals. What happens if they make you good money and then all of a sudden they stop posting their trades? What will you do then?

Best to learn trading by yourself.

I would never follow other analysts blindly. That's a given, and it's why most paid signal groups are garbage.

However, it's invaluable to pay attention to other analysis than just your own. It's easy to become biased and get tunnel vision otherwise. I follow a dozen or so traders on various mediums, both privately and publicly. I also have a couple trading buddies who I chat with almost everyday about BTC price action, market data, and so on. Not only does this help me "keep my nose clean" as a technician but it also provides me a glimpse of what the rest of the market is doing.

It takes years to become mechanical about proper trading rules, capital management, defeating analytical biases, etc. Until you get to that point, surrounding yourself with competent traders who have already been doing it for years is the next best thing.

[Wexlike]

*skip*
+1 on everyone you mentioned. all of them are very rigorous, but each has a very distinct style. the speculation board is super lucky to have people like dmwardjr and exstasie giving away their TA for free. i've been in paid groups with much worse analysis.

Thanks for the merit Foma! I'm curious about your experience regarding these paid groups (or maybe even pnd groups)? Did you manage to take a profit based on their trading analysis ?

I really love dmwardjr, although his godmode indicators are so abstract that it's really difficult to follow his videos so I mostly just skip to his charts+descriptions.

[hisslyness]

Do some people out there use the indicators to analyze BTC move?

I have been studying BTC price chart with the indicators but found that indicator's accuracy rate is not high..

Maybe, i am not good at it.

Any advice?


Btw, has anyone experienced BISPEX exchange known as its insurance funding?

Problem with Elliot Wave is, it is about price movement only, and not TIME. Hence you only have one part of the picture.

[carter34]

Most of the indicators you listed and some that you didn't list are lagging indicators. That is, they don't give you signal ahead of time. The only one you listed that tries to do signal ahead is Elliott waves but one problem with it is that, it is fill with guesses. So the choice is yours on how to combine your indicators for better result.

[buwaytress]

Or, do like I do. Don't trade. I do find myself looking up a lot of these indicators but I don't waste my time keeping up and charting possible lines. I leave it others and then gorge myself on their findings. It's almost purely entertainment value (I do get a bit of FOMO myself but thankfully I stay completely out of non-necessary trading.

I mean, I think many of us, admitting it or not, every now and then have a guilty bag of alts/stablecoin we trade a bit of bitcoin for, but it's nothing more than a speculative gamble, hoping to get in at some dip.

The real TA guys? Few. But if you really want to learn, figment is right: stick to the regular TA guys like exstasie. You'll actually learn something from them. But always make your own mind up. Take responsibility for your trade decisions and you'll be pleased, no matter the outcome.