2020 U.S. Presidential Election

[Gyfts]

With primary season officially kicking off on Monday with the Iowa caucus, it's finally election time! I'll update the state primary results as they come through with the below schedule but this is where things start to get interesting. We've already seen Trump launch attacks on Twitter against potential opponents as they correspond to rising poll numbers. At the time of this post, in my view, it's a two person race between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. Biden had what seemed to be an insurmountable lead following this announcement for a Presidential run but Bernie Sanders was able to chip away his lead steadily while Elizabeth Warren's campaign collapsed following a bump in the polls in September.  A few of the smaller candidates that I was rooting for was Tulsi Gabbard and Andrew Yang but they can't seem to pick up any sort of momentum to break into double digit polling. I think both had reasonable, common sense, platforms and were moderate on social policy. Specifically for Yang, he's living in 20 years in the future and is bringing up important issues pertaining to AI that no politician wants to address.

What are your predictions?

Right now, I see a Trump vs. Sanders match up with Trump winning the electoral college with a popular vote loss.


Over the course of the next few months I'll be updating the individual state delegate counts as they come in. Out of 3979, a single candidate needs 1990 delegates to win the democratic nomination.

	Delegate Count	Percentage of total Delegates	Delegates Left Needed to Win
Bernie Sanders	21	<1%	1969
Pete Buttigieg	22	<1%	1968
Joe Biden	6	<1%	1984
Elizabeth Warren	8	<1%	1982
Amy Klobuchar	7	<1%	1983
Tulsi Gabbard	0	0%	1990
Tom Steyer	0	0%	1990
M. Bloomberg	0	0%	1990
Deval Patrick	0	0%	1990
Michael Bennet	0	0%	1990
Andrew Yang	0	0%	1990

Republican Nomination - 2,552 delegates, 1,276 needed to win.

Presumptive Republican Nominee: Donald J. Trump: Bound delegates (59)

Voting Schedule:

Iowa Caucus - February 3rd - (41 Delegates available) - Pete Buttigieg Preliminary Winner

New Hampshire Primary - February 11th - (24 Delegates available) - Bernie Sanders Declared Winner

Nevada caucuses - February 22nd - (36 Delegates available)

South Carolina primary - February 29th - (54 Delegates available)


Super Tuesday; March 3rd

Alabama Primary - (52 Delegates available)
American Samoa Caucuses - (6 Delegates available)
Arkansas Primary - (31 Delegates available)
California Primary - (415 Delegates available)
Colorado Primary - 67 Delegates available)
Maine Primary - (24 Delegates available)
Massachusetts Primary -  (91 Delegates available)
Minnesota Primary -  (75 Delegates available)
North Carolina Primary -  (110 Delegates available)
Oklahoma Primary -  (37 Delegates available)
Tennessee Primary -  (64 Delegates available)
Teas Primary -  (228 Delegates available)
Utah Primary -  (29 Delegates available)
Vermont Primary -  (16 Delegates available)
Virginia Primary -  (99 Delegates available)


March 10th

Idaho Primary - (20 Delegates Available)
Michigan Primary - (125 Delegates Available)
Mississippi Primary - (36 Delegates Available)
Missouri Primary - (68 Delegates Available)
North Dakota Caucus - (14 Delegates Available)
Washington Primary - (89 Delegates Available)

March 14th
 
Arizona Primary - (67 Delegates Available)
Florida Primary - (219 Delegates Available)
Illinois Primary - (155 Delegates Available)
Ohio Primary - (136 Delegates Available)

Georgia Primary - March 24th - (105 Delegates Available)

Puerto Rico Primary - March 29th - (51 Delegates Available)

April 4th

Alaska Primary - (15 Delegates Available)
Hawaii Primary - (24 Delegates Available)
Louisiana Primary - (54 Delegates Available)
Wyoming Caucus - (14 Delegates Available)

Wisconsin Primary - April 7th (84 Delegates Available)

April 28th

Connecticut Primary - (60 Delegates Available)
Delaware Primary - (21 Delegates Available)
Maryland Primary - (96 Delegates Available)
New York Primary - (274 Delegates Available)
Pennsylvania Primary - (186 Delegates Available)
Rhode Island Primary - (26 Delegates Available)

May 2nd

Guam Caucus - (7 Delegates Available)
Kansas Primary (39 Delegates Available)

Indiana Primary - May 5th - (82 Delegates Available)

May 12th

Nebraska Primary - (29 Delegates Available)
West Virginia Primary - (29 Delegates Available)

May 19th

Kentucky Primary - (54 Delegates Available)
Oregon Primary - (61  Delegates Available)

June 2nd

D.C. Primary - ( 20 Delegates Available)
Montana Primary - (19  Delegates Available)
New Mexico Primary - (34  Delegates Available)
South Dakota Primary - (16  Delegates Available)

U.S. Virgin Islands Caucuses - June 6th - (7  Delegates Available)

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[allahabadi]

It is a shame but I think the current impeachment has strengthened Trump's position in 2020 elections.

In case this impeachment thing hadn't taken place and Biden (sadly not Sanders) wud hv been the nominee for Dems, they hd a real chance.

I think the Dems are not allowing Trump's mistakes to spill out in the open and going astray on wild goose chases, we hv a saying give a monkey time and he will commit mistakes (don't sit der to point it out), the Dems are not giving Trump free hand to act stupid to his constituent; every time he does a mistake, he gets away with it cause; the dems paint a pic that is obviously hyperboled and then the core Reps forgive Trump by saying things like this ain't as big as Dems as saying it is eg. Sen. Lamar saying that Trump's acts were inappropriate, but not impeachable.

[suchmoon]

What are your predictions?

I'm obligated to trash-talk Trump into losing against whomever the Democrats nominate.

[philipma1957]

Trump in a landslide the democrats fixed it for him to win.

We are acting as if this is real and competitive it is not.

This is the WWF played out in the political arena.

Instead of Madison square garden as in wrestlemania.

[allahabadi]

What are your predictions?

I'm obligated to trash-talk Trump into losing against whomever the Democrats nominate.

Can I join the bet too, Trump wins in my prediction ofc. 🤭

[Gyfts]

It is a shame but I think the current impeachment has strengthened Trump's position in 2020 elections.

In case this impeachment thing hadn't taken place and Biden (sadly not Sanders) wud hv been the nominee for Dems, they hd a real chance.

I think the Dems are not allowing Trump's mistakes to spill out in the open and going astray on wild goose chases, we hv a saying give a monkey time and he will commit mistakes (don't sit der to point it out), the Dems are not giving Trump free hand to act stupid to his constituent; every time he does a mistake, he gets away with it cause; the dems paint a pic that is obviously hyperboled and then the core Reps forgive Trump by saying things like this ain't as big as Dems as saying it is eg. Sen. Lamar saying that Trump's acts were inappropriate, but not impeachable.

This is my thoughts exactly. Biden falling in the polling is a direct result of democrats pushing and dragging out impeachment trials for so long. I think people see Joe Biden's son as an epitome of Washington corruption where his children directly benefited from his political power. I'm curious as to where Joe Biden voters are going though. If you're a moderate Biden supporter, what are the chances you are going to switch from Biden to Bernie? My expectation was if Sanders is going to win this thing, he needed to take away support from Warren and that seemed to happen over the last few months. That raises the question, where do Biden supporters go?

[TwitchySeal]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[theymos]

I think that Bernie has a very good chance of winning vs Trump if he's the nominee. Current polling shows him beating Trump in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. You definitely can't rely on polls at this stage, since many people polled are replacing "Biden" or "Bernie" with just "not Trump" in their minds right now, and once the election actually gets under way, they'll be faced with actually voting for a particular candidate. But I think that Sanders has a good chance of speaking to working-class voters in these areas. These voters are not all that ideologically opposed to socialism, and they'd find many of Sanders' economic policies attractive. Effective attacks against Sanders for these voters would focus more on immigration, gun rights, and general social issues (ie. if they feel like Sanders projects an "it's not OK to be a straight white male" vibe, that won't go down well). I'm not sure that Trump will be able to attack Sanders well enough to overcome the appeal of some of the economic issues, especially if the economy starts to falter before then (which IMO is not unlikely). And while there are a lot of moderate Democrats who despise Sanders (ie. people who love Bloomberg and who now think of Bush's presidency longingly), are they actually going to swing any states? They probably won't even vote for Trump: they'll just stay home.

This map starts with the Cook Political Report ratings, and then I assigned three of the toss-ups (NC, AZ, FL) to Trump, and the remaining two toss-ups of WI and PA I assigned to Sanders, which is where he polls the best vs Trump currently and where I think he has the best chance of making his message resonate. That puts him over the top.

The Cook ratings probably assume a more moderate Democrat, but will inserting Bernie actually change anything? Is that really going to help Trump win Nevada or Michigan, for example? I doubt it. If anything it might allow Sanders to pick off some of the states which Cook rates as Republican, like maybe OH.

With Biden, I think that Trump wins all 5 Cook toss-ups and therefore the election.
All that being said, Democratic establishment is going to try every trick in the book to stop Bernie from being the nominee. It'll be sort of like Trump's nomination, but the Democratic party's establishment is more powerful than the Republican party's establishment, Bernie himself seems less able to push back against this establishment, and of course there are also many other differing factors, so Bernie could definitely be defeated. At this point I'd say that there's less than a 50% chance of Bernie being the nominee.

[squatz1]

I think that Bernie has a very good chance of winning vs Trump if he's the nominee. Current polling shows him beating Trump in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. You definitely can't rely on polls at this stage, since many people polled are replacing "Biden" or "Bernie" with just "not Trump" in their minds right now, and once the election actually gets under way, they'll be faced with actually voting for a particular candidate. But I think that Sanders has a good chance of speaking to working-class voters in these areas. These voters are not all that ideologically opposed to socialism, and they'd find many of Sanders' economic policies attractive. Effective attacks against Sanders for these voters would focus more on immigration, gun rights, and general social issues (ie. if they feel like Sanders projects an "it's not OK to be a straight white male" vibe, that won't go down well). I'm not sure that Trump will be able to attack Sanders well enough to overcome the appeal of some of the economic issues, especially if the economy starts to falter before then (which IMO is not unlikely). And while there are a lot of moderate Democrats who despise Sanders (ie. people who love Bloomberg and who now think of Bush's presidency longingly), are they actually going to swing any states? They probably won't even vote for Trump: they'll just stay home.

This map starts with the Cook Political Report ratings, and then I assigned three of the toss-ups (NC, AZ, FL) to Trump, and the remaining two toss-ups of WI and PA I assigned to Sanders, which is where he polls the best vs Trump currently and where I think he has the best chance of making his message resonate. That puts him over the top.

The Cook ratings probably assume a more moderate Democrat, but will inserting Bernie actually change anything? Is that really going to help Trump win Nevada or Michigan, for example? I doubt it. If anything it might allow Sanders to pick off some of the states which Cook rates as Republican, like maybe OH.

With Biden, I think that Trump wins all 5 Cook toss-ups and therefore the election.
All that being said, Democratic establishment is going to try every trick in the book to stop Bernie from being the nominee. It'll be sort of like Trump's nomination, but the Democratic party's establishment is more powerful than the Republican party's establishment, Bernie himself seems less able to push back against this establishment, and of course there are also many other differing factors, so Bernie could definitely be defeated. At this point I'd say that there's less than a 50% chance of Bernie being the nominee.

I'd say that if it's Trump vs Biden, Trump wins. If it's Trump vs Bernie, there's a tossup as both of them have energized bases that hate the other.

Crazy thing is seeing Bernie polling so good in Minnesota, I think Trump lost the state by about -- 40,000 votes -- flipping a state like that would change the game as those 10 electoral votes changes the president. You could say the same about any state that's within a percent or two leading in the polls. But as you said before (and I agree with), the polls don't really mean anything at this point (and even when we get into November, as they could be horribly unreliable)

Who knows if a Bernie ticket is going to hurt democrats down the ballot (as he's not as moderate as a good amount of the caucus) -- though yet again, if Bernie wins the nomination it looks very similar to the Trump takeover of the Republican party.

Iowa is tomorrow folks, we'll see VERY soon if Bernie can win this one. If he wins Iowa and NH, he'll most likely be able to ride the Big MO.

[allahabadi]

I think that Bernie has a very good chance of winning vs Trump if he's the nominee. ~

Bernie WON'T WIN... Even the Dems won't let that happen.

[Gyfts]

I think that Bernie has a very good chance of winning vs Trump if he's the nominee. ~

Bernie WON'T WIN... Even the Dems won't let that happen.

Update at the time of writing this posts, official results are still not in lmao.

It never ceases to amaze me how the Democratic party can systematically shit the bed whenever given the chance. It's almost like they have it down to a science. The Iowa caucus is an cluster fuck of a situation where we still haven't seen the results after early indication was that Bernie Sanders was going to win. Pete Buttigieg already called Iowa for himself with zero percent reporting so that was a great look for him. Meanwhile results get delayed when Sanders is the projected winner according to internal sources. The DNC is bending over for Trump at this point because this is exactly how you get division in your party to make voters NOT vote for the democratic nominee. I'm not going to assign malice when incompetency will suffice but nonetheless, it's not a good look.

I think that Bernie has a very good chance of winning vs Trump if he's the nominee.

I myself was thinking Bernie had a good chance but I was not considering the polling data after Trump unleashes ruthless attacks against Bernie Sanders and democratic socialism. I think the oppo research against Sanders is not going to treat him well because there are too many instances to choose from where Trump will attack Bernie on his association with socialism/communism. If Bernie wins, I think it'll be a referendum on democratic socialism and not a referendum on Donald Trump which is not what you want the election to be about if you're a democrat. You need to force voters to focus on Trump and Trump will try his hardest to shift focus on the shortcomings of democratic socialism.

[TwitchySeal]

Seems like it's gonna be Bernie/Pete in the top 2 spots.

Warren in third

Biden in fourth.


Conspiracy theories already flying at Pete since he may become the new moderate to beat.  A younger, smarter gay version of Biden, if you will.

Conspiracy theory #1:

'Petes campaign sent 11k to the same company that developed the app to count the votes securely (the app failed).  A senior employee of the company posted her support for Trump like a year ago.  Therefore, Pete must've paid the developers $11k to to rig the app in his favor.'

Keep in mind it's a company that literally exists to get contracts with Democrats looking for tech help with their campaign.


https://shadowinc.io/



So, the most likely scenario is Pete paid them for their service.  For example it looks like $11k would get you 500,000 texts.

[Viper1]

democratic socialism

"Democratic socialism" is just a red herring to make it acceptable to those that don't know anything about it or socialism. The end goal is exactly the same thing. Doing away with capitalism etc and becoming entirely socialist. It takes very little research to see that's the case and the more radical side of Bernie's supporters don't exactly hide that.

Why people think capitalism is so bad is beyond me. The country wouldn't be the economic power house it is without it. China. Russia. They wouldn't embrace it if it wasn't the way to grow their economies and "in theory at least", build a better more prosperous future for their people. There wouldn't be the money there that they now want to spend. It's just ludicrous. It's wall street that's one of the primary issue with it's strangle hold on how companies run themselves and the shit they do. It's the the lack of rules, regulations and the like that allows those at the head of those companies to abuse the system. But it's not capitalism itself. Capitalism is not the cause of the problems. But whatever. People need to blame something and those seeking power will use it if they can get away with it. None of them seem to actually give a shit about the future of the country. The left was all over Trump, Banon etc for wanting to "tear it all down" or whatever that phrase was... but they're willing to embrace Bernie's message. Same message. Just from different sides.. Turn a blind eye to the issues as long as it's "your guy". Don't look beyond your nose and play out the potential scenarios and ramifications.. Sounds familiar.

[allahabadi]

~Trump will attack Bernie on his association with socialism/communism.~

Not just tht; Trump will bring in terrorist conspiracies too, he'll label Bernie supporters as radicals and what-not. Trust me it is quite surprising tht ppl buy into such narratives unknowingly and stereotypes triumph.

I remember how a very much rational individual like ThePharmacist called out Indo-Malay bounty-hunters terrorists, simply because they were wearing Muslim scarf (burqa/hijab).

(edit)
P.S. Dem Socialism or Capitalism don't matter to me as long as they are democratic and corruption free.

[theymos]

LOL, the Dems are getting down to work screwing Bernie early in the process, I see! I was disappointed not to see the results last night, and a bit shocked not to see them even this morning, but the fallout from this chaos will be even more entertaining.

[allahabadi]

LOL, the Dems are getting down to work screwing Bernie early in the process, I see! I was disappointed not to see the results last night, and a bit shocked not to see them even this morning, but the fallout from this chaos will be even more entertaining.

I told u so 😏😏😏

[allahabadi]

Nice to see Andrew Yang get over 1%

P.S. Congrats Ms Pelosi just ensured Reps get free emotions. What a bunch of dumbf**ks !!! The Dems are consolidating the Reps; I wonder if they hv ever fought an election.

[TwitchySeal]

LOL, the Dems are getting down to work screwing Bernie early in the process, I see!

At this point I don't think it's likely that the total fail last night was done deliberately by the Dems to lower Bernies chances of winning the nomination. 

[Gyfts]

Updated the tallies. Looks like Pete is the preliminary winner so he came out of no where. Bernie had a good night, Elizabeth warren had an ehh night. Joe Biden had a miserable night, good lord.

[HammaSan]

When Trump ran for president for the first time, many laughed at his pathetic candidacy. At this time, I read about a seer there in Brazil who said that Trump would win. Even I laughed at this fortune teller because I imagined she was talking a big bullshit. We were all totally wrong. Now, recently, I saw again the predictions of this seer and she said that Trump will be re-elected. It will be?