I agree with most of what you have said Jonathan. But there are a few important things to remember:
The Manipulator is very much a part of the market, but time and time again he has shown his true colors with disappearing bid walls.
Yes, he has pulled those walls in the past when the price was too high to continue, but at the level we are at now, it is VERY likely that those walls could be real. As we fall even lower, the likelihood of real bid walls becomes higher. And once he has eaten up a significant portion of the supply, the price will rise because he is likely to hold hard - maybe coupled with a strong buy from him.
His sell offs of previously filled orders in front of his fake walls is likely not for profit, but to regain USD for his manipulative price support.
How can you be sure that he is the only one to blame here? There are plenty of people with thousands of coins that might sell once the price has risen enough with the hopes of buying lower. This is not a game that he and he alone is playing so we should not blame him solely for this. This kind of thing happens in real world markets too. After large rises come large falls, and vice versa.
The Manipulator stands mostly alone, and he's slowly losing steam. No bid walls are popping up in front of his fake orders, and everyone is not only wise to his tactics, but they're fully aware that his price prop is nothing more than illusion. Perhaps there are people who haven't figured it out yet, and they think the price is going to pop back up, but that's just not going to happen before we reach a new equilibrium.
You might be right. But you might also be wrong. As I said, the lower the price goes, the greater the likelihood that those walls could be very real. I don't think he is losing any steam whatsoever. The price has been continuing downwards, requiring less and less purchasing power on his part. And he has taken enough profit from the higher levels to be able to provide real support at the levels we are currently at.
If he allows his orders to be filled within the next 2 days, he owns more coins than he knows what to do with, and he'll have failed at re-igniting a rally.
I agree that he will be left holding a LOT of coins if this happens. And when he is the biggest holder of coins on the market, what do you suppose is going to happen? The people who sold to him will have fiat to spend and no coins, and he will have lots of coins (and probably lots of fiat too). This is a recipe for movement in an upwards direction only.
Further, once his wall disappears, it's a slide to $1.5, possibly a bounce to $1.7 and considering that he's likely on borrowed time/money, he'll have little choice in the matter and will probably be adding to the downward pressure on price.
I agree. If the walls disappear, we are going downtown. But not for long I would imagine. He will be holding too many coins at that point, and will only have one option if he hopes to ever get any of his money back. HOLD, and hold strongly.
I know we all want cheap coins, but I am going to do what the manipulator is doing.
It is a mistake to bet against someone with that level of bitcoin and fiat holdings.