[Discussion & Betting] Eurovision Song Contest 2020 - CANCELLED

[Saint-loup]

@Saint-loup, @Stalker22, I'm not saying that Eurovision isn't popular, but these 150-200 million people watching it mainly comes from Europe. While Olympic games or World Cup is watched by billions. And as you can see, Eurovision is far from being in the list of most watched TV programs https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-watched_television_broadcasts#List
Yeah, Eurovision is shown outside Europe, but it's not on main TV channels with biggest ratings, maybe except Australia.
And I used USA just as example, there could be another country like Brazil, Nigeria or whatever you want. Until 2019 it wasn't shown there on big TV network, until Netflix bought it. And here is one of articles where it's explained why Eurovision isn't a thing in USA:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/qz.com/86543/five-reasons-why-americans-will-never-understand-the-point-of-eurovision/amp/
And yeah, Madonna was there, but obviously not because Eurovision is popular in States. She just got lot of money for performance, same like on her World Tours and that's all.

It takes place once a year while it's only every 4 years for FIFA world cup and Olympic games... So it's 200 millions viewers every year.
As I understand you're not american, that's why you think american people have no culture and don't care about Europe and the rest of the world, but you're wrong.

Germany and UK (and Spain and France) always perform very poor ranking wise.

I agree with you for France, and this year it's even worse than the previous years, it's a totally unknown folk/blues singer(in fact his father is a famous humorist) singing in english. If I can bet France not reaching the top 10, I will do it  

[1715500257]

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[tyKiwanuka]

Germany and UK (and Spain and France) always perform very poor ranking wise.

I agree with you for France, and this year it's even worse than the previous years, it's a totally unknown folk/blues singer(in fact his father is a famous humorist) singing in english. If I can bet France not reaching the top 10, I will do it 

Odds for that will be pretty low France had only two Top10 in 16 years and if their song for this year is a bad as you suggest, you will maybe get a 1.1 to 1.2 for that.

The Big Five apart from Italy always perform equally poor ranking wise. Those four countries need a VERY good song and performance to have a chance to win or finish something like Top5, which is a very good result then.

Looking at the results since 2000, we have this average rank:

Country	Average result since 2000
__________________	__________________
France	16.45
Germany	15.95
Spain	17.40
UK	18.95

Italy always has very good and well liked entries, I always like them too, not sure what it is with Italian music. They had a long break with ESC and only started participating again since 2011, but they finish in 7.88th place on average - very impressive.

[tyKiwanuka]

Armenia had their national selection tonight and it will be Athena Manoukian with the song "Chains On You" representing them at Rotterdam: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgT9EjD_0No

Not the music I like, but it can of course still be successful in ESC. Armenia is a country that tend to be very succesful in ESC anyway. They have yet to get a Top3, but in 13 participations, they finished Top10 an impressive seven times (54%). Last two years they failed to make the final though and by my judgement they will fail for a third time in a row.

[LTU_btc]

Some more countries had their national selection finals today. Lithuania will send group The Roop with song ''On fire'' - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awmMoVeqxlY. I think it's good choice, I like this song and I think we can get to the Eurovision final this year. Though I also liked song which finished second in our national selection.

[tyKiwanuka]

I think it's good choice, (...)

Yes, one of the better entries so far for my liking, has some 80´s vibes, especially that sequence starting at around 1:16. That trousers from the frontman are hilarious though

Some more countries had their national selection finals today.

Yes, Norway selected their entry as well. Ulrikke with "Attention" has won the Melodi Grand Prix and will go to ESC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYI_FrDixLY

The intro is great, but then a bit lame that whole song. It's missing some climax and/or up-tempo. Only in the very end, there is some more "action", but maybe it's liked by the people. Norway is another country that is always doing quite well and often has very good and perfectly arranged songs.


Edit: Looks like the song from North Macedonia is now known as well, but I can't find it on Youtube.

[Tipstar]

They are just distributing the prize to different participating countries rather than the good ones. It has never been about the song or singer.
So, it certainly would not be the Netherlands, Israel, Portugal, Ukraine or Sweden.
Most probably the winner would be from Baltic or even the new participating country Australia. Or the middle European countries and UK and Ireland too would have a chance. Iceland too have not won it and they are a sound place to organize another event.

[ChrisPop]

I have always been a major fan of Eurovision though I haven't attended a live show yet. But I've literally watched it with my family every year since I was a little kid. It is awesome to have an international song contest with such a great tradition.

The majority of my local bookies have quotations for the Eurovision event, but hopefully some crypto online casinos will offer them too this year as well. Gotta make some time to watch the music videos of each participant.

[Saint-loup]

They are just distributing the prize to different participating countries rather than the good ones. It has never been about the song or singer.
So, it certainly would not be the Netherlands, Israel, Portugal, Ukraine or Sweden.
Most probably the winner would be from Baltic or even the new participating country Australia. Or the middle European countries and UK and Ireland too would have a chance. Iceland too have not won it and they are a sound place to organize another event.

Who are distributing the prize? LOL Did you know that votes from viewers are counting for half of the points?  

For the moment my preferred songs are (in order) :

• Spain : I really like the chorus of the song "perdoname, perdoname, uni-universo"
• Greece : catchy gimmick "bye bye baby bye"
• Lithuania : very artistic and contemporary choreography
• Italy : amazing crescendo

[tyKiwanuka]

For the moment my preferred songs are (in order) :

• Spain : I really like the chorus of the song "perdoname, perdoname, uni-universo"
• Greece : catchy gimmick "bye bye baby bye"
• Lithuania : very artistic and contemporary choreography
• Italy : amazing crescendo

You should start placing some bets on Spain then

The odds for the countries that have announced their entries until now (taken from Orbit Exchange).



The market is still young and it's missing liquidity of course. For those not familiar with exchanges - right hand from the blue fields are orders waiting to get matched, f.e. someone is looking to place a bet of 2,- Euro on Spain.

Lithuania is pretty low for my liking. I like the song, but don't think it's special enough to have a shot at winning that whole thing. Will be interesting to see how the markets move as more and more songs get announced.

While Germany sits at around 40-ish at the moment, bwin has already a bet up, if Germany will get zero points (5.00 yes / 1.13 no).

[Saint-loup]

You should start placing some bets on Spain then

The odds for the countries that have announced their entries until now (taken from Orbit Exchange).

Well it's just my personal taste, not my prediction for the moment but I'm pretty happy to see that 3 of them are already in the top 4 of the bookmakers. 
For Spain yes I think those odds are underrated IMO. The reactions from the "Eurovision Hub" have been pretty good overall
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLsLifG6nMk

[TopTort777]

Another year, another political contest. Neighbors gives high scores to neighbor countries, jury’s can be bribed, but in overall freak/transgender/transvestite/crippled/someone with incurable decease wins.

This contest is far away from music. I usually turn off the show when it comes to scoring.

Btw, I’ve noticed that usually wins that country, which bookmakers marked as a winner. Most of the years bookies are correct. Want a 100% win, make a bet on someone with lowest odd

[Saint-loup]

Germany and UK (and Spain and France) always perform very poor ranking wise.

I agree with you for France, and this year it's even worse than the previous years, it's a totally unknown folk/blues singer(in fact his father is a famous humorist) singing in english. If I can bet France not reaching the top 10, I will do it  

The french song will be released this evening(20h50 CET) but it has already been leaked on social networks.
The song has been written by the (swedish) authors of Euphoria (winner 2012).
Tom Leeb -The best in me
https://twitter.com/archive_de/status/1229005840172056576

[tyKiwanuka]

The french song will be released this evening(20h50 CET) but it has already been leaked on social networks.
The song has been written by the (swedish) authors of Euphoria (winner 2012).
Tom Leeb -The best in me
https://twitter.com/archive_de/status/1229005840172056576

In the twitter link he starts english and switches to french afterwards. In the youtube video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-1WR2Vd7Qk) he starts with french and then switches to english, weird. I like that song, especially the switching from englisch/french, but odds have gone up for France during the evening, so looks like the market doesn't like it

I still couldn't find the song from North Macedonia (Vasil Garvanliev "You"), so if anybody has a link to it, please post.

[LTU_btc]

I still couldn't find the song from North Macedonia (Vasil Garvanliev "You"), so if anybody has a link to it, please post.

As I understand, this song still isn't publicly released, this is why it's impossible to find it anywhere. It's kinda strange practice from North Macedonia.

[Saint-loup]

The french song will be released this evening(20h50 CET) but it has already been leaked on social networks.
The song has been written by the (swedish) authors of Euphoria (winner 2012).
Tom Leeb -The best in me
https://twitter.com/archive_de/status/1229005840172056576

In the twitter link he starts english and switches to french afterwards. In the youtube video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-1WR2Vd7Qk) he starts with french and then switches to english, weird. I like that song, especially the switching from englisch/french, but odds have gone up for France during the evening, so looks like the market doesn't like it

I still couldn't find the song from North Macedonia (Vasil Garvanliev "You"), so if anybody has a link to it, please post.

Yes it seems the beginning of the song has been cut in the version of my link.
I'm not surprised of what you are saying about the odds, reactions have been very bad on social medias in France. Mainly because of the lack of originality of the song and because of the singer voice during his live performance yesterday.
BTW I had only heard the sound versions of Armenia and Albania from your links.  But after watching their video versions I think Armenia is my 5th favorite song now, the country has great chances to qualify to the final with this song IMHO.
Armenia : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hxh311X0umg
Albania : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGlDU5ktmIU

[alani123]

For me, the most fun is to be able o bet during the final.
During the last two years I've had good winnings in bookies that allowed voting to take place while voting. From some decently high odds you could win big with even small bets, and it's super exciting when the voting takes some of the least favorite songs to the top, while the bookie still syncs odds.

[Stalker22]

BTW I had only heard the sound versions of Armenia and Albania from your links.  But after watching their video versions I think Armenia is my 5th favorite song now, the country has great chances to qualify to the final with this song IMHO.

Athena (Armenia) may be a good singer, I just can’t tell by this song. This is a bit Beyonce-ish and rather disappointing for me.
Not my cup of tits!

[tyKiwanuka]

P.S. I happen to have my all-time fav Euro band representing Belgium (Hooverphonic). I've been listening to them ever since their cover of This Strange Effect hit my eardrums in the 1990s. So I actually have a band I support in this edition. If anyone wonders what 1990s triphop sounded like, without mentioning Massive Attack and Portishead: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nu2nSWSgFa8

They finally released their song (and video) and it is named, ta-da, "Release Me". It's a very pure and sad song, but quite nice, though I don't think it's winner material. Such songs tend to land somewhere in the 5-10 range. Odds went from 25ish yesterday to 60+ now. Belgium often has trouble getting past the semifinal, but the times they did in recent years, they had good placements.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAqjksxc4iA

[Saint-loup]

They finally released their song (and video) and it is named, ta-da, "Release Me". It's a very pure and sad song, but quite nice, though I don't think it's winner material. Such songs tend to land somewhere in the 5-10 range. Odds went from 25ish yesterday to 60+ now. Belgium often has trouble getting past the semifinal, but the times they did in recent years, they had good placements.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAqjksxc4iA

Not very Eurovision formatted, but it's a nice song I think. I don't find it really belgian nonetheless (no french neither dutch in the song  ). I hope Belgium will qualify but I wouldn't bet on a top 10 finishing. It looks like Bang Bang (My Baby Shot Me Down) a little bit I think.

[babygun]

They finally released their song (and video) and it is named, ta-da, "Release Me". It's a very pure and sad song, but quite nice, though I don't think it's winner material. Such songs tend to land somewhere in the 5-10 range. Odds went from 25ish yesterday to 60+ now. Belgium often has trouble getting past the semifinal, but the times they did in recent years, they had good placements.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAqjksxc4iA

Not very Eurovision formatted, but it's a nice song I think. I don't find it really belgian nonetheless (no french neither dutch in the song  ). I hope Belgium will qualify but I wouldn't bet on a top 10 finishing. It looks like Bang Bang (My Baby Shot Me Down) a little bit I think.

I heard this song a couple of times on the radio today. It's a nice song, but nothing more than that. All the analysts are quite negative about this song and say it is not a song for Eurovision.
Reaching the final will already be a success.