Prediction Thread (PRIZES INSIDE!)

[Jonathan Ryan Owens]

1. Accurately predict the time of the next sell off ( > 2000 coins) - 1 Bitcoin [edited from > 1000 to > 2000 @ 1:32pm pst on 11/19/2011]
2. Accurately predict the volume of the sell off - 1 Bitcoin
3. Accurately predict where the price will temporarily settle before it hits $1.7 - 1 Bitcoin [edit/clarification: settle means > 4 hours within a price rance of $0.05 cents]

[edit] All predictions are independent, and there can be up to 3 different winners @ 1:33pm pst on 11/19/2011

Ready, GO!

[1713578806]

1713578806

[1713578806]

1713578806

[bittenbob]

Next volume of major sell off: 5000BTC
Time: say 2 hours from now
$1.70/BTC - next tuesday.

[Jonathan Ryan Owens]

saved

Next volume of major sell off: 5000BTC
Time: say 2 hours from now
$1.70/BTC - next tuesday.

[adamstgBit]

next major sell off: 2,000BTC
Time: 22 hours from now
$1.70/BTC: 62days of 2$ lows 3$ highs and then on Jan 19th we will dip below 1.7$

edited

[bittenbob]

major sell off: 20,00BTC
Time: 22 hours from now
$1.70/BTC: 62days

And TY Jon

[Jonathan Ryan Owens]

saved

major sell off: 20,000BTC [assuming you mean 20,000BTC - EDITED]
Time: 22 hours from now
$1.70/BTC: 62days

[trogdorjw73]

10000 BTC
Time: 42 Hours (Late Sunday PST, or roughly midnight GMT I think)
Settle around $2.3 for the week, with a slight upward trend to 2.45; price will bottom out just under $2 briefly before bouncing back.

[Jonathan Ryan Owens]

saved - Also, that's an eerily specific prediction xD. Good luck to you, sir.

10000 BTC
Time: 42 Hours (Late Sunday PST, or roughly midnight GMT I think)
Settle around $2.3 for the week, with a slight upward trend to 2.45; price will bottom out just under $2 briefly before bouncing back.

[btc_artist]

1. Accurately predict the time of the next sell off ( > 1000 coins) - 1 Bitcoin
2. Accurately predict the volume of the sell off - 1 Bitcoin
3. Accurately predict where the price will temporarily settle before it hits $1.7 - 1 Bitcoin

1. Time: 38 hours from the time of this post
2. 8,500 BTC
3. Price will settle at $2.15 for several days to a week, then will drop to $1.90 for about a week, then will drop to $1.70.  There may be brief uptrends during this movement.

[Jonathan Ryan Owens]

saved

1. Accurately predict the time of the next sell off ( > 1000 coins) - 1 Bitcoin
2. Accurately predict the volume of the sell off - 1 Bitcoin
3. Accurately predict where the price will temporarily settle before it hits $1.7 - 1 Bitcoin

1. Time: 38 hours from the time of this post
2. 8,500 BTC
3. Price will settle at $2.15 for several days to a week, then will drop to $1.90 for about a week, then will drop to $1.70.  There may be brief uptrends during this movement.

[gewure]

next big selloff:        9000 BTC
time of that selloff:   in 3 days
pricesettle:              1.89 USD

[Jonathan Ryan Owens]

saved

next big selloff:        9000 BTC
time of that selloff:   in 3 days
pricesettle:              1.89 USD

[gewure]

it is offcourse pretty randomly predicted

i was thinking about posting some pseudocode to show how random my "predictions" are. i mean.. lol, how should i know how big the next selloff gonna be unless it is myself who sells the coins? and then again: somebody will probably be stop-loss'ed and sell with me and bla bla bla.. very random!

only think i am quite confident about: the price will go down on the shortterm.

[ElectricMucus]

no big selloff but a slow creep, volume 116000
duration 10 days
endpoint before crash below 1.7: 1.9

[bittenbob]

If it reaches 1.70 the price would temporarily settle at around 1.85 before it hit there.

[Scott J]

next big sell off:        4000 BTC
time of that selloff:   in 24 hours
price settle:              1.80 USD

 

[trogdorjw73]

So looking at the history, the next >2000 BTC selloff after 11/19/2011 6AM EST occurred on 11/19/2011 at 10:39:33pm EST; I'm not sure how that correlates to the time of this thread, so you'll have to do that math. The amount of the trade was 3837.4, though priced didn't actually drop so I'm not sure if that counts. As for "stable", we had >4 hours from 11/20/2011 at 5PM EST where the price was in a range of $2.17 to $2.2309; I'm not sure if there was an earlier time that qualified for "stable" or not, and we definitely haven't seen that drop to $1.7 (and may not ever see it).

[Jonathan Ryan Owens]

So looking at the history, the next >2000 BTC selloff after 11/19/2011 6AM EST occurred on 11/19/2011 at 10:39:33pm EST; I'm not sure how that correlates to the time of this thread, so you'll have to do that math. The amount of the trade was 3837.4, though priced didn't actually drop so I'm not sure if that counts. As for "stable", we had >4 hours from 11/20/2011 at 5PM EST where the price was in a range of $2.17 to $2.2309; I'm not sure if there was an earlier time that qualified for "stable" or not, and we definitely haven't seen that drop to $1.7 (and may not ever see it).

Thanks for the input, Captain Hindsight. When time starts moving in reverse, you're going to make a killing!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyb1KYiFkBM

[trogdorjw73]

So looking at the history, the next >2000 BTC selloff after 11/19/2011 6AM EST occurred on 11/19/2011 at 10:39:33pm EST; I'm not sure how that correlates to the time of this thread, so you'll have to do that math. The amount of the trade was 3837.4, though priced didn't actually drop so I'm not sure if that counts. As for "stable", we had >4 hours from 11/20/2011 at 5PM EST where the price was in a range of $2.17 to $2.2309; I'm not sure if there was an earlier time that qualified for "stable" or not, and we definitely haven't seen that drop to $1.7 (and may not ever see it).

Thanks for the input, Captain Hindsight. When time starts moving in reverse, you're going to make a killing!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyb1KYiFkBM

Hey, it's your contest, so when you say "predict the time and volume of the next sell off of >2000 BTC" and we had an order of 3837.4 BTC go through, I'd say that's done. I was merely pointing out that based on what I see, we should now have winners for at least two of the categories, with the only questionable category being whether or not the "stable" point was reached. But thanks for being a twat when I provided details as to the amount and times of the winners; you'd have to decide who actually came the closest still.

[Jonathan Ryan Owens]

So looking at the history, the next >2000 BTC selloff after 11/19/2011 6AM EST occurred on 11/19/2011 at 10:39:33pm EST; I'm not sure how that correlates to the time of this thread, so you'll have to do that math. The amount of the trade was 3837.4, though priced didn't actually drop so I'm not sure if that counts. As for "stable", we had >4 hours from 11/20/2011 at 5PM EST where the price was in a range of $2.17 to $2.2309; I'm not sure if there was an earlier time that qualified for "stable" or not, and we definitely haven't seen that drop to $1.7 (and may not ever see it).

Thanks for the input, Captain Hindsight. When time starts moving in reverse, you're going to make a killing!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyb1KYiFkBM

Hey, it's your contest, so when you say "predict the time and volume of the next sell off of >2000 BTC" and we had an order of 3837.4 BTC go through, I'd say that's done. I was merely pointing out that based on what I see, we should now have winners for at least two of the categories, with the only questionable category being whether or not the "stable" point was reached. But thanks for being a twat when I provided details as to the amount and times of the winners; you'd have to decide who actually came the closest still.

Oh man, I thought it was a different thread entirely. The 29 day thead, to be exact. My bad. Yeah so winners, step forward.

(trogdorjw73 - sorry for being a twat. I really thought we were in the other prediction thread)

-Jonathan

[trogdorjw73]

NP -- it was sort of a boring prediction, TBH. I think most of us were sure there would be a huge move sometime in the next day or two, and there really wasn't. I think if you had said an order of >10K BTC, it would be more interesting -- we're still waiting on that one.

[Scott J]

If the 3837.4 BTC sell off counts, I was 162.6 out

[Jonathan Ryan Owens]

If the 3837.4 BTC sell off counts, I was 162.6 out

Receiving address please. Who won the others? I'm lazy.

[teflone]

No Atlas, we will not take part in another lame contest..

[Jonathan Ryan Owens]

No Atlas, we will not take part in another lame contest..

That's awesome. You think I'm Atlas. xD

When you say "we" are you speaking for everyone else who already participated?

Thanks for your input.

-Jon

[btc_artist]

If the 3837.4 BTC sell off counts, I was 162.6 out

Receiving address please. Who won the others? I'm lazy.

I'm too lazy to see if I won.  But I can post a receiving address regardless. :p

[trogdorjw73]

I'm not sure how to convert the times of the forum thread into the times seen on BitCoinCharts -- anyone know? Scott J would win on the volume of sell off post, though given he posted much later than others (and apparently right around the time of the 3824 coin trade -- though I'm not sure if he posted before or after), I'm not sure how to call that one. For the "settle price" I'd say my post is the closest, but we still haven't dropped to under 2.10 since this "contest" started.

[Scott J]

I'm such a noob that I don't yet know how to check for certain volume trades 

It was a stab in the dark tbh.

If it qualifies: 1N1FmjYhNTnW263RYzPpSxSmJMADCGkn2V

If not, no worries