How will the Halving affect the BTC price?

[uray]

If the supply reduces, and the demand still high, the price can follow to increase high. And now, after people know that bitcoin is worth, they will try to buy bitcoin, no matter if the price is high. So the next halving which impacts to the reward for the miners, that can make the price increase high, and maybe the price will be more than $20k.

These are ideal situation for the price of bitcoin to rally and many are expecting the price to rally like we used to see during the past halving but this time around there were many difference like we used to be in the past even before the virus pandemic but with the pandemic in full flow and the economy expected to crash hard i do not have any hope that we will see the market rallying anytime soon.

 

[shoreno]

If the supply reduces, and the demand still high, the price can follow to increase high. And now, after people know that bitcoin is worth, they will try to buy bitcoin, no matter if the price is high. So the next halving which impacts to the reward for the miners, that can make the price increase high, and maybe the price will be more than $20k. But the increases will not happen in a short time, and maybe that will happen after a few months after the halving moment. But that can increase fast if there is a high demand for bitcoin so that can make the price to moves fast too.

never knew that ,  i thought halving have a different impact but i search that again and found out that its true  . it really reduce supply  .

 i also thought burning coin are the only that can reduce the coin supply.  anyways i dont think people will buy btc on any value  . maybe there are some especially if they are rich enough  but majority are only waiting for the right moment or when btc crash   .  still the price can increase due to halving and the reasons were explained earlier     .

[odolvlobo]

If the supply reduces, and the demand still high, the price can follow to increase high.

never knew that ,  i thought halving have a different impact but i search that again and found out that its true  . it really reduce supply  .

No. The halving does not reduce the supply. I wish people would stop repeating such a gross misunderstanding of basic economics.

The supply consists of the bitcoins available for sale. The total number of bitcoins increases until it reaches 21 million. As the total number of bitcoins increases, so does the supply.

The halving reduces the rate of this increase. The halving reduces the production.

If that is not convincing, then consider what will happen when the number of bitcoins reaches 21 million and the subsidy is 0. When the subsidy is 0, then will the supply be 0? Will there be no more bitcoins for sale?

[Ridwan Fauzi]

   I believe in much higher prices after halving, but not immediately! Effects on the price after halving will be
positive in long-term and that's all that should be matter for all of us. I know that some people wish to get
rich fast, and that high price will come right after halving, but I think it will take time before we see real
effects of halving on Bitcoin price!

We just have two possibilities, the first possibility bitcoin will have high price after halving with a note there are a lot of people who believes in bitcoin and they invested their money into it. Bitcoin like gold in my opinion, now bitcoin pricr is relatively stable if we compare with a few years before. There are a lot of bitcoin future that has been offered by some exchange and at least in can be reduced for the volatility issue.

The second possibility, bitcoin price will down drastically after halving event comes. Can you imagine if there is no interest from new investor and we just rely one an old investor to make bitcoin price getting hard, it will be hard. I just concern to miner, the mining difficulity will be getting hard and they will need a new mining tool to overcome it and it mean the mining cost will increase drastically. They just have two option, upgrade the mining tool and spend a lot of money or closing it.

[odolvlobo]

No. The halving does not reduce the supply. I wish people would stop repeating such a gross misunderstanding of basic economics.

The supply that I mean is the rewards for the miners. The supply will not change, but the rewards for miners will be changed so that I called that is the supply. I hope you are not misunderstanding

Ok, so you have your own definition for "supply". It's confusing, but ok.

... while the supply that the miners and the traders sell is not high, then that means, the price will increase.

Why do you say that this supply is not high? As I mentioned before, it is always increasing.

[aioc]

   I believe in much higher prices after halving, but not immediately! Effects on the price after halving will be
positive in long-term and that's all that should be matter for all of us. I know that some people wish to get
rich fast, and that high price will come right after halving, but I think it will take time before we see real
effects of halving on Bitcoin price!

I also don't see a dramatic increase in the price, the effect will take some time probably in the last quarter of the year, people by that time will start to realize that Bitcoin is as strong as ever and will make a big rally, also by that time we will contain the virus, this pandemic is what keeps delaying the price.

[Findingnemo]

then consider what will happen when the number of bitcoins reaches 21 million and the subsidy is 0. When the subsidy is 0, then will the supply be 0? Will there be no more bitcoins for sale?

Two possible scenarios, either bitcoin has no value so people won't transact bitcoins anymore or the price rewards from transaction fee is more than enough to cover all the expenses of miners because the last bitcoin is going to be mined in the year 2140.

[uray]

I also don't see a dramatic increase in the price, the effect will take some time probably in the last quarter of the year, people by that time will start to realize that Bitcoin is as strong as ever and will make a big rally, also by that time we will contain the virus, this pandemic is what keeps delaying the price.

If you really think that the pandemic is keeping the price to rally then you need to wait for a much longer period of time, the economy will not recovery automatically and we are expecting a huge rescission in the coming months and the impact of this pandemic will be known once the virus is contained and we have no idea when that will be and then restarting all the business that are affected is another obstacle and i am expecting much bigger issues than the price of bitcoin rallying and i wont be surprised if there is no rally in the next few years.

[STT]

Biggest supply is from previous holders so I agree with that important point, block reward represents expansion of the monetary base for BTC and this will be a very slight alteration on this date.    There after we see in accumulation a change to new BTC made available but by far the largest influence continues to be speculators who will sell and therefore supply the market as and when they feel price fully reflects near term value.

At present we rose above 50 day average but remain below the 200 day average.    We are at something of a top very short term because we already gained and are now in the middle of long term volume around this pricing.   I continue to be neutral in my outlook and expectations for this year maybe these events news and protocol are why but I think it was on the cards anyway, next year should develop more.

[Febo]

No. The halving does not reduce the supply. I wish people would stop repeating such a gross misunderstanding of basic economics.

The supply that I mean is the rewards for the miners. The supply will not change, but the rewards for miners will be changed so that I called that is the supply. I hope you are not misunderstanding

Ok, so you have your own definition for "supply". It's confusing, but ok.

When people talk about supply they talk about one of the factors that met on the market. Supply and demand. At Bitcoin supply are all already mined coins without the ones that are forever lost ( it is hard to judge which are).

[ethereumhunter]

No. The halving does not reduce the supply. I wish people would stop repeating such a gross misunderstanding of basic economics.

The supply that I mean is the rewards for the miners. The supply will not change, but the rewards for miners will be changed so that I called that is the supply. I hope you are not misunderstanding

Ok, so you have your own definition for "supply". It's confusing, but ok.

I hope you are not confusing

... while the supply that the miners and the traders sell is not high, then that means, the price will increase.

Why do you say that this supply is not high? As I mentioned before, it is always increasing.

When the miners and traders still hold their bitcoins, and they don't sell in a big amount in the exchange (means the supply at the exchange is not high), and if many people want to buy bitcoin in a large amount (means the demand at the exchange is high), then that will make the price can increase. Because in one side, people will buy bitcoin at any price, and in the other side, people don't want to sell their bitcoin at a low price, so they will still hold the bitcoin amount and waiting for the highest price.

[odolvlobo]

When the miners and traders still hold their bitcoins, and they don't sell in a big amount in the exchange (means the supply at the exchange is not high), and if many people want to buy bitcoin in a large amount (means the demand at the exchange is high), then that will make the price can increase. Because in one side, people will buy bitcoin at any price, and in the other side, people don't want to sell their bitcoin at a low price, so they will still hold the bitcoin amount and waiting for the highest price.

Perhaps, but none of that has anything to do with the halving.

[Smitty Werben Man Jensen]

seen from the history of the first Bitcoin Halving and the second Bitcoin Halving have a big impact on the price of Bitcoin, but it takes time to experience an increase, not instantly, and of course must be patient. if we pay close attention to what will happen then I think the increase will occur in 2021-2022, because miners today will experience difficulties and can lose if the price of Bitcoin is still cheap, because electricity consumption from mining is not cheap and miners only get a small amount of Bitcoin. that's the logic