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Author Topic: What is your guess on how long the Antminer S1 will be profitable for?  (Read 1194 times)
bjalbert
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March 20, 2014, 02:49:34 AM
 #1

I figure 13% diff increase would make it profitable till end of December but total profit would be less than 1 btc (.998btc purchase price). I guess the gamble is diff decrease or BTC price increase in that timeframe.
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justbtcme
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March 20, 2014, 03:13:01 AM
 #2

Half a month at best.
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March 20, 2014, 04:35:34 AM
 #3

It all depends on where you live really.  I mean, at what point do serious miners just turn them off and say "not worth the power bills" and sell it for pennies on the dollar to a more hobby minded miner?  Probably not for a year or more at least.  I say this under the assumption that 2014 is to be a breakout year for bitcoin, I see us returning to November/December prices by about the same time this year, which would mean basically keep a lot more antiquated hardware on the network, which, overall, will be a good thing, I think.

BTC: 15565dcUp4LEWe6KYT7tawMHFRL4cBbFGN
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March 20, 2014, 09:09:49 AM
 #4

It costs 0.988 BTC.
Playing with 15% difficulty - stable BTC price.

For now it will do like 5 days of 0.020 = 0.100
Then 2 weeks of 0.017 = 0.238
Then 2 weeks = 0.207
Then 2 weeks = 0.180
Then 2 weeks = 0.155
Then 2 weeks = 0.135
Total after 11 weeks is 1,015 BTC.

Power cost   = 61 kWh/week = 671 kWh. At $0.1/kWh that is $6.71 = 0.011 BTC.
Even at 4 times the power cost, it will be profitable within 11 weeks.

You can continue the calculations - say power costs = $0.40 / kWh. That is 0.088 for 2 weeks.
13 weeks = 0.117
15 weeks = 0.102
17 weeks = 0.088 <- Lifetime at $0.40/kWh
19 weeks = 0.077
21 weeks = 0.067
23 weeks = 0.058
25 weeks = 0.050
27 weeks = 0.044 <- lifetime at $0.20/kWh

The S2 has half the power costs, so will add like 10 weeks lifetime. But not shippinjg before in 3-4 weeks, so make it 6 weeks longer. And it will start earning at higher difficulty lower profits.





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March 20, 2014, 12:56:59 PM
 #5

Your best bet is a BTC price increase.  Once KNC, BFL, BA, etc hit the market it'll bump up the difficulty increases adding weeks to your forecast.

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PhilippeD
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March 20, 2014, 02:04:47 PM
 #6

The S2 has half the power costs, so will add like 10 weeks lifetime. But not shippinjg before in 3-4 weeks, so make it 6 weeks longer. And it will start earning at higher difficulty lower profits.

Yes, totally agree with your calculations.
I don't understand people who buy new S2.
They won't earn any money, except if they don't pay kWh (for example  : plug S2 at work and not at home ...)
S2 is more expensive per Ghs than S1.
S1 can work during S2 delivery time...

S2 cost : 6.09 BTC / 1000 Ghs= 0.00609 BTC / Ghs
S1 cost : 0.988 BTC / 180 Ghs = 0.00548 BTC / Ghs, so a little bit more because S1 need PSU.

If Bitcoin value do not grow, people will lose money buying S2.

I'm wrong ?


Bitmain login : philBTC - My Miners : AntMiner S2
bjalbert
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March 20, 2014, 04:12:38 PM
 #7

The S2 has half the power costs, so will add like 10 weeks lifetime. But not shippinjg before in 3-4 weeks, so make it 6 weeks longer. And it will start earning at higher difficulty lower profits.

Yes, totally agree with your calculations.
I don't understand people who buy new S2.
They won't earn any money, except if they don't pay kWh (for example  : plug S2 at work and not at home ...)
S2 is more expensive per Ghs than S1.
S1 can work during S2 delivery time...

S2 cost : 6.09 BTC / 1000 Ghs= 0.00609 BTC / Ghs
S1 cost : 0.988 BTC / 180 Ghs = 0.00548 BTC / Ghs, so a little bit more because S1 need PSU.

If Bitcoin value do not grow, people will lose money buying S2.

I'm wrong ?



It will pay for itself in like 90 days:
https://bitcoinwisdom.com
xstr8guy
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March 20, 2014, 06:46:49 PM
 #8

The S2 has half the power costs, so will add like 10 weeks lifetime. But not shippinjg before in 3-4 weeks, so make it 6 weeks longer. And it will start earning at higher difficulty lower profits.

Yes, totally agree with your calculations.
I don't understand people who buy new S2.
They won't earn any money, except if they don't pay kWh (for example  : plug S2 at work and not at home ...)
S2 is more expensive per Ghs than S1.
S1 can work during S2 delivery time...

S2 cost : 6.09 BTC / 1000 Ghs= 0.00609 BTC / Ghs
S1 cost : 0.988 BTC / 180 Ghs = 0.00548 BTC / Ghs, so a little bit more because S1 need PSU.

If Bitcoin value do not grow, people will lose money buying S2.

I'm wrong ?



You're wrong.

Just resell before it loses too much value.  Why do people always forget this when making ROI calculations?
farlack
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March 20, 2014, 07:57:10 PM
 #9

You guys also base off the fact if you're breaking even at the end mining with power and bitcoin, and the price goes up 10x, you don't really break even anymore when you balance it out at the end of the year, or 5.

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