2018 bottom: 3100 (just my memory or thereabouts)
2019 bottom: 3500 (same)
2020 bottom in my frail logic has to be somewhere between the lines of 4000-7000. Especially now with multiple economic pressures all coming together unexpectedly. And yes, it has an effect. People will not be buying/mining when stomachs are hungry and bills need getting paid. I'm not saying it's gonna crash and stay down. Just saying we should prepare to see more trying prices.
Not going to think I've become a genius overnight but yeah, even if we're discounting last night's flash crash to 3,867, we're definitely seeing the lows I'd be expecting from all this pressure that's coming and probably that's yet to come. That WHO announcement was just waiting to happen, and people and markets are reacting exactly as they should.
I do think it's heavily oversold though, and that Fear Index I bet has never seen such low zones as well, they've priced in worst-case scenarios for sure now. But don't expect the correction just so soon. It'll need the news from China to filter out (that cases are actually rapidly coming down) and tell others that you act fast and things get better eventually.
This does fit with the yearly higher low agenda, and if this is the worst that can happen, we're definitely long-term good.
