The Corona Pandemic economic guessing game

[Darker45]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

As always the case, the poorest countries are at the most disadvantageous position.~

Imo, the poorest people are at the most disadvantageous position, and we can find such people in every country.

Regarding the economic impact of the pandemic on various countries' economies, every country will be (and already is) affected big-time. And if one country will suffer much more than others, the international community will help that country to cope with its problems.

The world, with the exception of a few countries, maybe, is no longer a place where some countries are gloating over the calamities in other countries. So, with the current level of reciprocity, on the governmental level, all economics will be affected equally, more or less.

I fervently hope that is exactly the case right now while some countries are desperately fighting against COVID-19 and its terrible economic impact more than the rest. Unfortunately, there are some sad indications that a few countries or even a community of countries are leaving others out in these dire times, just when they needed them the most.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/italy-conte-calls-for-eu-crisis-fund-as-coronavirus-death-toll-rises.html

Countries that are more fiscally sound do not want to have their debt associated with those of highly indebted nations. As a result, the Italian calls are likely to be received with some skepticism.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-eu-abandoning-italy-china-aid/

One might think that fellow European Union countries would count their blessings and send their Italian friends a few vital supplies, especially since the Italians have asked for it. They have sent nothing.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-aims-better-control-coronavirus-responses/

EU countries have so far refused Italy's plea for help fighting coronavirus, as national capitals worry that they may need to stockpile face masks and other medical gear to help their own citizens, officials and diplomats said.

I am not saying some countries are gloating over the calamities of others but facing a pandemic which is ever ready to hit all cities and towns of the world, some countries seem to suggest through their actions that in these trying times, to each his own. I hope I am very wrong on this.

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[Betwrong]

~
I fervently hope that is exactly the case right now while some countries are desperately fighting against COVID-19 and its terrible economic impact more than the rest. Unfortunately, there are some sad indications that a few countries or even a community of countries are leaving others out in these dire times, just when they needed them the most.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/italy-conte-calls-for-eu-crisis-fund-as-coronavirus-death-toll-rises.html

Countries that are more fiscally sound do not want to have their debt associated with those of highly indebted nations. As a result, the Italian calls are likely to be received with some skepticism.

This is a very complicated situation, to be honest. First it was China, then Italy, and now it's Spain.

^^ Look at the "New Cases" and "New Deaths" columns. Right now, it's hard to say what country is going to need more help.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-eu-abandoning-italy-china-aid/

One might think that fellow European Union countries would count their blessings and send their Italian friends a few vital supplies, especially since the Italians have asked for it. They have sent nothing.

Below is a quote from the same article:

In a shameful abdication of responsibility, fellow countries in the European Union have failed to give medical assistance and supplies to Italy during an outbreak. China is filling the void.

As I said in my post above, reciprocity, it's working, one way or another.

I am sympathetic to the cry for help made by Italian Prime Minister, but we must understand that other governments should also care about their own citizens in this dangerous and unpredictable situation.

[Twentyonepaylots]

It seems that this could be a global conspiracy to destroy a certain layer of the world's population.

This is far from this thought or conspiracy. Whose country's old was left behind ....

Some awkwardly people really thought of this conspiracy coz they have this deep imagination and does not bother what happens above the surface, it is too shallow for them to understand.

This is just an epidemic that is ravaging the globe at the moment. So many known diseases today started like this until cure was found. We expect that soon we are going to be free again in our society.

We've been dealt with many pandemics, and this is one of the weakest virus of them all it just so happen that we aren't prepared and surprised by its late discover and now we're running things unprecedentedly.
It's getting serious now with other country and Italy, China seems to be more active since they are the epicenter of the virus and now has a low rate of deaths and cases for about 2 days, So I hope it will continue until a cure is found.

[Wintersoldier]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

Ofcourse, the countries that are most likely affected by the pandemic of corona virus or covid-19 are the ones who has a huge numbers of people who are infected and died in their population because maybe a lot of business man, politicians, or rich and popular have died due to the virus.

[snipie]

This is a very complicated situation, to be honest. First it was China, then Italy, and now it's Spain.
-snip-
^^ Look at the "New Cases" and "New Deaths" columns. Right now, it's hard to say what country is going to need more help.

Now wait a minute, where is the MAGA hat?
USA gonna lead the world AGAIN. With new cases 6k-13k daily + huge number of active cases, THE HUGEST + fast growing number of deaths then the situation will be very very bad for them, even worst than Italy and Spain if things continue like that.
People in serious or critical conditions are +2k and knowing that the condition of any apparently healthy one can deteriorate rapidly then things are worse than expected.
/More serious/: USA gonna be the first in number for cases in less than 24h, followed by Italy then China. Total deaths is hard to estimate now since the propagation of the virus in USA is at an early stage, but once the number will pass 100k-200k with many in critical conditions then we will witness how an irresponsible and kiddish Potus has exterminated thousands of citizens!

[SirLancelot]

USA will be affected in the short term as well, nobody talks about that but they are on an election year, which means that normally they have bunch of other topics to talk about yet here they are not talking about the elections.

This would only work for Donald Trump because he will not have to face their opponent as much as he would otherwise, plus there was a lot of talks about "blue no matter who" before all of this started but there is a rising number of Bernie voters (I would be if I was American) that decided not to vote for Biden as well and on top of that a lot of time allocated for the upcoming elections are now pure corona as well.

It means basically Trump will most likely win, and when he wins he will spend money and time to make sure companies get paid and that will be temporary solution which will be exactly like today in the future, so the whole nation will be screwed in short and long term.

[figmentofmyass]

USA will be affected in the short term as well, nobody talks about that but they are on an election year, which means that normally they have bunch of other topics to talk about yet here they are not talking about the elections.

the biden campaign has done a good job weaponizing the pandemic response against trump. i think biden is a hack and corporate shill, but this is a pretty good ad: https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1242967501442412544

This would only work for Donald Trump because he will not have to face their opponent as much as he would otherwise, plus there was a lot of talks about "blue no matter who" before all of this started but there is a rising number of Bernie voters (I would be if I was American) that decided not to vote for Biden as well and on top of that a lot of time allocated for the upcoming elections are now pure corona as well.

It means basically Trump will most likely win, and when he wins he will spend money and time to make sure companies get paid and that will be temporary solution which will be exactly like today in the future, so the whole nation will be screwed in short and long term.

my gut says you're right---trump will win. presidential approval ratings always rally during crises. trump is now getting his highest approval ratings ever, right as we enter the primary season home stretch. people also prefer red presidents during active threats.

it's crazy but we're probably gonna get 4 more years of trump out of this.

[snipie]

it's crazy but we're probably gonna get 4 more years of trump out of this.

If there will be enough old pals and fat MAGA hat buddies after the coronavirus then yeah, i think so.
And BTW, as I told you folks, USA always grab number 1, even in the most contamination countries, but impressively in less than 6 hours! God bless the crippled economy

[figmentofmyass]

it's crazy but we're probably gonna get 4 more years of trump out of this.

If there will be enough old pals and fat MAGA hat buddies after the coronavirus then yeah, i think so.
And BTW, as I told you folks, USA always grab number 1, even in the most contamination countries, but impressively in less than 6 hours! God bless the crippled economy

somebody forgot to tell the stock market. the USA hit record high unemployment numbers, and officially is the new "epicenter" of the coronavirus pandemic, yet the DOW is up 20% and running! the wall street journal has even declared the bear market over if you can believe it. https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1243267094852055041

to be fair, china probably has way more cases than the USA. it's pretty well accepted that china's propaganda apparatus can't be trusted. preliminary evidence suggests china is actively suppressing reporting of new cases. wechat, weibo, and other platforms are also actively censoring public discussion of the pandemic and medical supply shortages.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/3a8evk/china-says-it-has-no-new-coronavirus-cases-skeptics-say-thats-too-good-to-be-true
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/08/803766743/critics-say-china-has-suppressed-and-censored-information-in-coronavirus-outbrea

Residents have also told Hong Kong’s public broadcaster RTHK that patients have been turned away from hospitals without getting tested because Wuhan authorities were under orders to meet the desire for no new cases.

Muckraking Chinese journalists have been publishing interviews with doctors with damning details that sometimes contradict official accounts. One piece, since deleted by censors, alleges the official tally of infected patients is far lower than the true scale of the outbreak, citing several Wuhan doctors.

To counteract the critical coverage of the Wuhan quarantine, the Communist Party's publicity department dispatched over 300 reporters from state media agencies to Wuhan and Hubei province earlier this week.

Not long after, authorities began turning to a more familiar tool for narrative control: censorship.

Government cyberspace regulators mandated in a notice on Wednesday that the country's biggest Internet companies, including Tencent, Baidu and ByteDance, "conduct special supervision" on epidemic-related news. Soon after, social media platforms, including WeChat, began suspending accounts found to have spread "sensitive information or illegal content," according to screenshots of sealed accounts.

[Janation]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

Ofcourse, the countries that are most likely affected by the pandemic of corona virus or covid-19 are the ones who has a huge numbers of people who are infected and died in their population because maybe a lot of business man, politicians, or rich and popular have died due to the virus.

Businessmen? Politicians? Rich people? I don't think so.

These people you are stating have the power to be the first ones to be tested. In our country, those politicians are the first ones on the line being tested and not even prioritizing the people that are already positive to the virus. These people are sacrificing their people for their own good, because of them being prioritized, test kits are being short now for those people that needed it.

[sodiik]

The Corona Virus is not only attacking humans but also impacting the world economy. Obviously this virus first hit the Chinese economy immediately. The spread of this virus is growing and in Europe as Italy is impacted by the tremendous impact. The latest American news also began to struggle to cope with the Corona spreading virus. I think another country with a difficult economy will increasingly have difficulty if this virus enters in a small country.

[tbterryboy]

I didn't know that Spain wasn't affected more than others, I thought they were hit a lot more than others before this current pandemic. With this pandemic I learned so much from the "spanish flu" thing, it looks like there was political things went on back then as well, hopefully we will get a better understanding of what calling these flu's with names of nations could do and how it could hurt people this time around, looks like Trump is insisting on calling it "Chinese flu" and that is racist, china could be as wrong as it gets in everything, but you can't do that diplomatically.

Let’s hope that history will not repeat itself, things looking like its settling down a bit and we are looking a bit better, if we can keep it under control like this in long enough time we will definitely end this before summer.

[Japinat]

I'm gonna guess its the countries that are already on the verge of economic collapse, those which have unsustainable debt and whose economies are relatively fragile:

Country with debt/GDP ratio:

- Portugal 119.46%
- Italy 133.43%
- Greece 174.15%
- Spain 95.96%

Spain has actually been improving as of late, but these 4 countries have collectively been known as the PIGS for at least 10 years for having too much debt.

So this means Italy would struggle more because they are next to US in terms of number of cases, I was surprise that there are more talks about Italy's situation that they are hopeless than in US that now US took the number 1 spot of the most infected people in a country.

[Gozie51]

I'm gonna guess its the countries that are already on the verge of economic collapse, those which have unsustainable debt and whose economies are relatively fragile:

Country with debt/GDP ratio:

- Portugal 119.46%
- Italy 133.43%
- Greece 174.15%
- Spain 95.96%

Spain has actually been improving as of late, but these 4 countries have collectively been known as the PIGS for at least 10 years for having too much debt.

So this means Italy would struggle more because they are next to US in terms of number of cases, I was surprise that there are more talks about Italy's situation that they are hopeless than in US that now US took the number 1 spot of the most infected people in a country.

The issue with Italy and US is about cases and death. Italy still has the highest rate of death with 10,000 plus while US has 2,000 plus in death and over hundred thousand in cases. But basically I think we are going to more progress in the number of survivals as China and few other European countries are getting curtailed.

[Wind_FURY]

What is the Germany dominated European Union doing for Italy, and Spain? It has failed. My friends told me that Germany is HODLING masks, and other protective equipment.

[exstasie]

What is the Germany dominated European Union doing for Italy, and Spain? It has failed. My friends told me that Germany is HODLING masks, and other protective equipment.

In a crisis, things always eventually devolve into self-interested behavior.

We're also seeing the beginnings of hoarding in the food supply chain, with multiple countries cutting off food exports to hedge against further disaster. Kazakhstan and Vietnam have moved to stop the export of key staples, with Russia threatening to do the same: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/mar/26/coronavirus-measures-could-cause-global-food-shortage-un-warns

Things are fine for now but experts are warning the food supply chain could break down within weeks in a worst case scenario. That would hit places with high food import costs like the UK especially hard.

[TheAndy500]

What is the Germany dominated European Union doing for Italy, and Spain? It has failed. My friends told me that Germany is HODLING masks, and other protective equipment.

With such a rapid spread of the virus, there was no other option but to close the borders. Each country in Europe still has an independent government that can react in times of crisis. Each country also has its own health service, which does not mean that countries do not help each other. As far as I know, German hospitals near the French border are open to French citizens. Each country is most worried about its citizens, but no one is insensitive to what is happening in neighboring countries.

About French - Geerman cooperation: https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/03/24/world/europe/ap-eu-virus-outbreak-eastern-france.html

[Kurokonobasuke]

When the Coronavirus started the most affected country is China because it is the epicenter of the virus, but as the virus spreads throughout the world the most affected countries for now is Italy because it is the highest rate of deaths. Many businesses in Italy are forced to shut down temporarily because of the pandemic virus. That’s why the Italian government are now asking for help in other countries because there are lot of people who are in critical condition.

[Betwrong]

This is a very complicated situation, to be honest. First it was China, then Italy, and now it's Spain.
-snip-
^^ Look at the "New Cases" and "New Deaths" columns. Right now, it's hard to say what country is going to need more help.

Now wait a minute, where is the MAGA hat?
USA gonna lead the world AGAIN. With new cases 6k-13k daily + huge number of active cases, THE HUGEST + fast growing number of deaths then the situation will be very very bad for them, even worst than Italy and Spain if things continue like that.
People in serious or critical conditions are +2k and knowing that the condition of any apparently healthy one can deteriorate rapidly then things are worse than expected.
/More serious/: USA gonna be the first in number for cases in less than 24h, followed by Italy then China. Total deaths is hard to estimate now since the propagation of the virus in USA is at an early stage, but once the number will pass 100k-200k with many in critical conditions then we will witness how an irresponsible and kiddish Potus has exterminated thousands of citizens!

Now, 9 days later, we can see that you were right about the number of cases in the USA. Indeed, the number, 277k, is the largest in the world. Only it's followed not by Italy and China, but by Italy and Spain.

But take into account that the total number of tests made is the largest in the USA, 1.4 million. And that's what is crucial, imo. South Korea, a country that is coping with the problem of COVID-19 best of all so far, made 455k tests(2 times more than in the USA per capita).

In short, the situation in the USA is far from being the worst in the world. And it can't be otherwise because there is a lot of resources to fight the the virus there.

[BitcoinTurk]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

Regardless of whether it is strong or weak due to this virus, many states have been damaged and will continue to see it. It is not easy to create or cause the collapse of a country, even if it is the states of the country in question, but the current administrations may lose their authority because they are exposed to this virus. Maybe there will be an optimistic guess, but I think that no country will come to the brink of bankruptcy in this process because the central banks of many countries have started to issue money as a temporary solution and aid packages have been received from institutions such as the IMF. Yes, the IMF may not be a good choice, but it should be kept in mind that it is a saving option for many countries. For this reason, 82 countries applied to this institution and also benefited from the support package for this process. Therefore, it is not very logical to wait for the collapse of a state, especially in the short term, in such an environment with so many options and possibilities, but if you want to comment on the long-term process, everything will change. I think that the whole world will pay a heavy economic price in the long-term period if all the countries are printing money, they are making serious borrowings due to this virus and the costs created by this virus.