[MEGATHREAD] Pilipinas Coronavirus/COVID-19 Thread

[Rosilito]

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reading through the article I wish DOH could elaborate more about this new "40k" new recoveries instead of saying that 39K+ of the new recoveries was "time-based" recoveries.

Itong 40k recoveries ay parang nung kagaya lang din dati kung saan nag recover din sila ng 38k+ sa loob ng isang araw. Which I think na itong time-based recoveries ay para sa mga asymptomatic and mild ang symptoms na kapag natapos na ang isolation period nila ay considered na as recovered.

Yep. Weekly base na 'yong report, right? Expect mo na 'to sa incoming reports nila, napabayaan na rin 'yong data sa simula pa lang. Baka siguro rekta tagging as "recovered" na lang ginagawa nila behind after ma-complete nung patient 'yong 14 days ng quarantine niya, without even confirming if lumala ba 'yong kaso niya or not. Besides, imagine ipa-follow up ng mga na sa medical field 'yang karami na 'yan eh dami na rin nilang shortcomings sa pagha-handle niyang mga 'yan. I can't blame them rin naman, baka siguro work became too much na rin tapos magulo pa sistema nila, kaya ganiyan.

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Hindi ba mas nakakabahala yung ganito dahil mas infectious ito at mas mataas ang chance na makahawa sa iba. Although sa Q.C. nila nakita ito mula sa random selected positive samples, may chance pa rin na kumakalat na ito sa ibang part ng Pilipinas na pwedeng isa sa reason bakit tumataas ang daily cases natin. Ano sa tingin nyo mga kabayan?

More infectious? If this affects 'yong number of cases natin. I won't be surprised if mag-revert tayo to ECQ.

Do you guys think MECQ will be extended in NCR, or will Duterte announce the move back to GCQ? I heard that originally they planned on moving to GCQ after the 18th as the government no longer has funds to buy food for all the people out of work there, but now some agencies are suggesting 14 more days of MECQ.. I'm hoping its GCQ so I can fly home, and not have a 3rd flight cancelled.

I guess you don't have to worry anymore. It was just announced recently, na by August 19 NCR, and some other areas will be place under GCQ.

Simula sa August 19, 2020, balik na sa General Community Quarantine (GCQ) ang NCR, Bulacan, Laguna, Cavite, at Rizal.
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Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Nueva Ecija, Batangas, Quezon, Iloilo City, Cebu City, Lapu-Lapu City, Mandaue City, Talisay City in Cebu, and the municipalities of Minglanilla and Consolacion.

The rest of the country will be under modified GCQ.

Sources: https://www.facebook.com/116724526976/posts/10159157112931977/
                https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/751743/ncr-bulacan-cavite-laguna-rizal-back-to-gcq-says-duterte/story/

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[criz2fer]

Patuloy man ang pagtaas ng cases, ang mga nkakaloka is yung biglang pagtanggal ng barriers for the couple or magkasama sa bahay. Mga katrabaho ko is bumili pa nito kahit sa mataas na halaga tapos bigla pwede na? Only in the Philippines .

[rhomelmabini]

Patuloy man ang pagtaas ng cases, ang mga nkakaloka is yung biglang pagtanggal ng barriers for the couple or magkasama sa bahay. Mga katrabaho ko is bumili pa nito kahit sa mataas na halaga tapos bigla pwede na? Only in the Philippines .

Naive implementations from the government. Here's one fact, sa rehiyon ko tumaas bigla yung cases at malala pa diyan mukhang may community transmission na rin Ang ibang nga municipality. One thing na naobserbahan ko mukhang nag lie low yung gobyerno (I'm speaking about my LGU but most likely it applies to other near LGUs) at yung mga stricter protocol na in-implement nila noon biglang humina, my God we have already cases pero parang mas humina pa tuloy.

If ever MECQ is at plan I mostly agree rather than risk to have more transmission in the end. Our City and Provincial Hospitals are now nearing full and the saddest part was the frontliners of one Provincial Hospital mga 20+ na nurses ang nagpositibo.

[criz2fer]

Patuloy man ang pagtaas ng cases, ang mga nkakaloka is yung biglang pagtanggal ng barriers for the couple or magkasama sa bahay. Mga katrabaho ko is bumili pa nito kahit sa mataas na halaga tapos bigla pwede na? Only in the Philippines .

Naive implementations from the government. Here's one fact, sa rehiyon ko tumaas bigla yung cases at malala pa diyan mukhang may community transmission na rin Ang ibang nga municipality. One thing na naobserbahan ko mukhang nag lie low yung gobyerno (I'm speaking about my LGU but most likely it applies to other near LGUs) at yung mga stricter protocol na in-implement nila noon biglang humina, my God we have already cases pero parang mas humina pa tuloy.

If ever MECQ is at plan I mostly agree rather than risk to have more transmission in the end. Our City and Provincial Hospitals are now nearing full and the saddest part was the frontliners of one Provincial Hospital mga 20+ na nurses ang nagpositibo.

Sa mga check points talaga ay hindi na sila maxado naghihigpit. I'm travelling back and fort from Manila to province, most of them are not strict on checking people that passing the check point which are mostly LGU hired people that not implementing the proper guidelines. In the end, disiplina din sa mga namumuno ng kada Locals ang kailangnan higpitan para yung mga essentials lang talaga yung makadaan.

[pallang]

Patuloy man ang pagtaas ng cases, ang mga nkakaloka is yung biglang pagtanggal ng barriers for the couple or magkasama sa bahay. Mga katrabaho ko is bumili pa nito kahit sa mataas na halaga tapos bigla pwede na? Only in the Philippines .

Magagamit pa naman nila mga barrier sa pagpriprito para di sila matalsikan ng mantika. And dami tlagang palpak ng mga nagpapatupad ng batas. Mapapamura ka n lng tlaga sa liit ng utak nila.

[rhomelmabini]

Sa mga check points talaga ay hindi na sila maxado naghihigpit. I'm travelling back and fort from Manila to province, most of them are not strict on checking people that passing the check point which are mostly LGU hired people that not implementing the proper guidelines. In the end, disiplina din sa mga namumuno ng kada Locals ang kailangnan higpitan para yung mga essentials lang talaga yung makadaan.

What else can we expect, I think hindi lang sa 'Pinas nangyayari ito if wala pang gaanong grabe na pangyayari hindi pa mag implement ng stricter protocol. From my observation rin humina kasi kulang yung ayuda sa mga municipal frontliners something like that, wala na ring motivation mga tao na sumunod if ever walang ayudang natatanggap, sad but this is what I observed.

More like we are at second wave of this pandemic and if there's no stricter protocol at hindi pa sumunod yung iba sa mga guidelines tiyak 1 million isn't that hard for the Philippines to achieve such lengths of cases.

[Bttzed03]

~ ang mga nkakaloka is yung biglang pagtanggal ng barriers for the couple or magkasama sa bahay.

Magagamit pa naman nila mga barrier sa pagpriprito para di sila matalsikan ng mantika.

Pwede pa magamit barrier kay no. 2


Tungkol sa news being circulated ng mga iba't ibang stations tungkol sa mga milyones na unreported/undetected case sa Pinas ayon sa pag-aaral daw ng isang unibersidad, narito ang rebuttal ng former IATF consultant, isang spesyalista sa pagaaral ng infectious diseases, at siang molecular biologist.

Post link: https://www.facebook.com/edselmaurice.salvana/posts/10207985143221955

Ok let's address this study (preprint, not peer reviewed) that there are MILLIONS of undetected COVID-19 in the Philippines.

1. First of all, actual case counts are a function of testing and surveillance. For example, the ESTIMATED number of influenza cases in the US cases per year is extrapolated from sentinel sites, and the estimated deaths is also extrapolated using mathematical models. This is how infectious diseases are measured. There is NO WAY you can test everyone to know the actual number of cases because:

a. there simply aren't enough tests or testers available
b. you'll spend a ridiculous amount of money testing low risk individuals
c. your data will not be reliable by the time you finish testing (it may take the whole year) because some of those people who were negative are now actually positive.

This is why, very early on, those of us in the scientific community who understood infectious diseases thought that the whole idea of "mass testing" was not only ridiculous, it was dangerous. It diverted much needed resources for isolation, treatment and prevention and gave people a false sense of security if they tested negative. This was further magnified by the misguided use of rapid antibody tests which are notoriously inaccurate. We kept saying - the only thing worse than no test is a bad test - but very people were listening.

2. It is very difficult to estimate actual case numbers when your testing capacity is constantly changing. If you are only targeting severe and critical symptomatics, a public health practitioner ALREADY KNOWS that you are only capturing about 20% of the actual infected population. Therefore, in our minds, we ALREADY KNOW that you add another 80% to the cases to get close to the actual number. However, if you target even mild patients which we did as the testing capacity increased, then you get closer to the actual number and you only have to correct for those if the proportion of cases you are capturing is less than 80% milds. Finally, the CDC later on realized that 40% of cases may be asymptomatic, so now we need to factor those in. If we look at the current distribution of cases, 91.5% are mild, which means that we are most likely capturing a good number of the symptomatics across the board. 6.5% are asymptomatic, so we probably need to add another 33% or more to the estimate because it is VERY HARD to capture asymptomatic - the tests don't work very well due to low viral loads, and there isn't very much incentive to test asymptomatics other than those being contact-traced. Which brings me to another point - the increasing number of asymptomatics detected coupled with increasing positivity rate may also signal that contact tracing is getting better at capturing exposed people and testing them. Finally, you also take into account false negatives even with PCR so add another 40 or 50% to the confirmed number.

3. We also know that there are major backlogs and delays in testing, partially because everyone wants a test and the system gets overwhelmed - yet another reason why mass testing is a bad idea. It also kills your turn-around time and you will need to preemptively isolate people for days on end - some people get their negative test after they have already completed 14 days of quarantine. Antigen testing may help with this backlog, but ONLY IF IT IS PROPERLY USED UNDER CLINICAL SUPERVISION. Otherwise we will have a lot more haphazard testing and waste, as well as people who have a false sense of security and may take unnecessary risk.

4. The BEST way to find out how many people HAVE HAD COVID-19 in the community is with a highly sensitive and specific antibody test. The CLIAs and ELISAs (NOT the rapid antibody tests) are the best tool for this. You DO NOT NEED to test everyone, you just need to do a PROPER SAMPLING methodology. Former Health Secretary Manolet Dayrit is doing this in select communities already and this will be the BEST estimate of the extent of COVID-19 infection in the community since it will be rooted in REAL data.

5. Since COVID-19 is such a new disease, models of spread are constantly changing, along with testing targets and proportions of clinical disease. It is needless speculation bordering on alarmist to state that we have missed MILLIONS of cases. Even if that was true, the clinically relevant effect would still be the number of deaths and our healthcare capacity - which is near its limit, but hopefully continues to be manageable. This is where I would put limited funds - increasing healthcare capacity and not just more testing. In a way, if MILLIONS have ALREADY been infected and we have had under 3,000 deaths, that would actually mean that there is a growing proportion of the population who have developed some immunity and this will help slow down the spread. If a vaccine is not developed anytime soon, this is actually the best way forward - minimal deaths while building up immunity and eventually putting a stop to the surges that threaten to overwhelm our healthcare system. This also ensures our economy can remain open as long as we take good care of our patients and the healthcare system.

So don't let numbers scare you. Know that we have the tools to STOP this epidemic - mask, face shield and physical distancing. A new infectious disease agent will spread - that's what infectious diseases do. But the most important part is managing the infections and keeping deaths low. If a vaccine comes, great. If it doesn't, it's not the end of the world.

[criz2fer]

Sa mga check points talaga ay hindi na sila maxado naghihigpit. I'm travelling back and fort from Manila to province, most of them are not strict on checking people that passing the check point which are mostly LGU hired people that not implementing the proper guidelines. In the end, disiplina din sa mga namumuno ng kada Locals ang kailangnan higpitan para yung mga essentials lang talaga yung makadaan.

What else can we expect, I think hindi lang sa 'Pinas nangyayari ito if wala pang gaanong grabe na pangyayari hindi pa mag implement ng stricter protocol. From my observation rin humina kasi kulang yung ayuda sa mga municipal frontliners something like that, wala na ring motivation mga tao na sumunod if ever walang ayudang natatanggap, sad but this is what I observed.

More like we are at second wave of this pandemic and if there's no stricter protocol at hindi pa sumunod yung iba sa mga guidelines tiyak 1 million isn't that hard for the Philippines to achieve such lengths of cases.

Actually wala ng umiikot na pera kaya hindi rin nagsisispag ang ibang municipalities. Samantalang noong una plang na lockdown eh ang sisipag manita kahit mga tricycle drivers sa barangay.

Nas culture din talaga ng mga Filipino ang last minute, kaya kung kelan may nagkaroon ng virus sa kanilang lugar ay bago palang sila naghihigpit sa communities nila which is too late na talaga.

[mk4]

Sa mga check points talaga ay hindi na sila maxado naghihigpit. I'm travelling back and fort from Manila to province, most of them are not strict on checking people that passing the check point which are mostly LGU hired people that not implementing the proper guidelines. In the end, disiplina din sa mga namumuno ng kada Locals ang kailangnan higpitan para yung mga essentials lang talaga yung makadaan.

100%. I know a few people na kung saan saan nagpupunta kahit may mga checkpoints, tapos mostly gabi pa, past the 9pm curfew. Ang sabi saakin is mostly for mga tambay at naglalakad lang daw sa gabi ung curfew, pero since 2 weeks ago angdami paring tao sa labas past 9pm.

^Unless for minors nalang ung curfew so correct me if I'm wrong.

[cabalism13]

^Unless for minors nalang ung curfew so correct me if I'm wrong.

Afaik, ang curfew eh para lang sa kabataan,... naghahatid sundo ako kay kumander inaabot ako ng 10-12 pm sa byahe atska ang dami ko din nakikita na nakatambay actually di ko alam kung may sinusundo rin, dito sa laguna medyo active lang eh Los Banos. the rest maluwag sa checkpoint maliban na lang siguro kung may utos sa kanila LoL.

makikita mo na lang talaga sila mga naggagadget tapos nakaupo patingin tingin lang.

[acroman08]

^Unless for minors nalang ung curfew so correct me if I'm wrong.

Afaik, ang curfew eh para lang sa kabataan,... naghahatid sundo ako kay kumander inaabot ako ng 10-12 pm sa byahe atska ang dami ko din nakikita na nakatambay actually di ko alam kung may sinusundo rin, dito sa laguna medyo active lang eh Los Banos. the rest maluwag sa checkpoint maliban na lang siguro kung may utos sa kanila LoL.

makikita mo na lang talaga sila mga naggagadget tapos nakaupo patingin tingin lang.

^
akala ko na lift na yung curfew pati sa mga bata but if that is the case. ang dami palang pasaway na magulang na hinahayaan ang mga anak na lumabas. dito sa area namin napaka raming bata ang nag alalro sa labas ng bahay hanggang gabi. walang nag papatrol na brgy. tanod or security guard para sawaying yung mga bata. nakakaumay nang tumingin sa balita sa sobrang daming mga pasaway na tao, mga incompetent na governement officials.

[Rosilito]

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akala ko na lift na yung curfew pati sa mga bata but if that is the case. ang dami palang pasaway na magulang na hinahayaan ang mga anak na lumabas. dito sa area namin napaka raming bata ang nag alalro sa labas ng bahay hanggang gabi. walang nag papatrol na brgy. tanod or security guard para sawaying yung mga bata. nakakaumay nang tumingin sa balita sa sobrang daming mga pasaway na tao, mga incompetent na governement officials.

Not sure pero nakadepende pa rin yata sa area. Pero dito kasi medyo strict pa rin, you still have to present some necessary stuff just to prove na galing ka sa work mo kaya late ka na nakauuwi.
I just stumble upon this news. May ilalala pa ba 'tong mga balita?

DOH: Not enough data to conclude Chinese tourists source of COVID-19 in Philippines

Source: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news

If I recall correctly, 'di ba 'yong first case ng corona virus dito sa 'tin is from a Chinese tourist na galing directly from Wuhan yata? Bakit ngayon may pagtanggi  .
We already surpass 200k mark na pala kahapon, here. At mukhang aabot pa yata tayo sa top 10 most cases worldwide if 'yong increment sa new cases natin still continue for a month.

[plvbob0070]

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akala ko na lift na yung curfew pati sa mga bata but if that is the case. ang dami palang pasaway na magulang na hinahayaan ang mga anak na lumabas. dito sa area namin napaka raming bata ang nag alalro sa labas ng bahay hanggang gabi. walang nag papatrol na brgy. tanod or security guard para sawaying yung mga bata. nakakaumay nang tumingin sa balita sa sobrang daming mga pasaway na tao, mga incompetent na governement officials.

Not sure pero nakadepende pa rin yata sa area. Pero dito kasi medyo strict pa rin, you still have to present some necessary stuff just to prove na galing ka sa work mo kaya late ka na nakauuwi.

Samin din ay medyo strict since need pa rin ng quarantine pass paglalabas and hindi pa rin pwede ang mga 20 at pababa, although marami paring nakakalabas kahit below sa age limit. Siguro kulang din talaga sa pag check ang mga awtoridad.

We already surpass 200k mark na pala kahapon, here. At mukhang aabot pa yata tayo sa top 10 most cases worldwide if 'yong increment sa new cases natin still continue for a month.

Pero sabi sa article na to, predict nila na baka mag flatten na yung curve by the end ng August or September. Although nasa katapusan na tayo ng August at mukhang hindi pa naman visible na papunta na nga tayo doon, pero sana ay tama ang prediction nila para hindi na lumala.

Source:

Code:

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1326181/covid-19-curve-may-flatten-by-end-of-august-or-september-up-expert

[cabalism13]

At mukhang aabot pa yata tayo sa top 10 most cases worldwide if 'yong increment sa new cases natin still continue for a month.

Pinas pa ba? di tayo papatalo pagdating sa mga ganyan,...
Utang, kahirapan, kurapsyon, ngayon sakit... kelan nga ba tayo nagpatalo? lagi tayong sunod sa uso. Kaya hindi na bago satin yan kung tutuusin, mas magiging bago satin kung hindi tayo dinapuaan nyan.

[Rosilito]

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Pero sabi sa article na to, predict nila na baka mag flatten na yung curve by the end ng August or September. Although nasa katapusan na tayo ng August at mukhang hindi pa naman visible na papunta na nga tayo doon, pero sana ay tama ang prediction nila para hindi na lumala.

Possible since malaki rin count ng recoveries natin. The thing is, 'yong mga nadi-discharge is 'di naman napa-follow up ng mga doctors or anyone medical related employees if they were totally free na or showing no symptoms, basta ma-complete lang 'yong 14 days quarantine then good to go na  . Kaya 'di rin definite 'yong data either way.

Pinas pa ba? di tayo papatalo pagdating sa mga ganyan,...
Utang, kahirapan, kurapsyon, ngayon sakit... kelan nga ba tayo nagpatalo? lagi tayong sunod sa uso. Kaya hindi na bago satin yan kung tutuusin, mas magiging bago satin kung hindi tayo dinapuaan nyan.

Vaccine na lang malinaw na pag-asa dito at parang malabo na 'yong 0 report cases sa ganitong estado natin. Saka para 'di na doble hirap pa, kasi parang wala na ring plausible action 'tong government natin.

[cabalism13]

Possible since malaki rin count ng recoveries natin.

Yang mga datos na yan hindi na ko naniniwala dyan, siguro kung totoo man eh di mabuti, pero tingin ko nagiging exaggerated na mga opisyal...

Vaccine na lang malinaw na pag-asa dito at parang malabo na 'yong 0 report cases sa ganitong estado natin. Saka para 'di na doble hirap pa, kasi parang wala na ring plausible action 'tong government natin.

vaccine, magiging sagot pwede, pero tignan natin ang katotohanan kung mabibigyan ba lahat nito, dito masusubukan yung mahirap o mayaman.
nakakalungkot isipin na mas madami ang bilang ng mahirap sa atin kung kaya pag nagkataon delubyo ito pag hindi lahat nabigyan.

[iyamoxjhian]

kadalasan yung mga sinasabi sa balita salungat sa nasasaksihan mo sa paligid mo. kagaya ng malapit na tayo sa pagflatten ng curve pero pag pumapasok ako sa trabaho  (2beses na nga lang sa isang linggo) napakadaming tao sa labas na hindi nman sila yung mga pumapasok pero sila yung mga nakatambay lang.mat andaming bata..na ang sinabi sa news kahit na GCQ na dapat nanantili sa loob ng bahay ang mga senior xitizens at 21 years old pababa..eh ang nangyayari kadalasan, sila p yung makukulit na nakatambay sa labas..na lang talaga kung gusto nila maflatten ang curve ng infected, wag lang sana sa iilang area lang sila naghihigpit..sana lahat ng area ksi pag hindi na naman naagapan to dadami na naman ang infected sa buong pilipinas.

[plvbob0070]

Napanood ko itong news na ito mula sa GMA at sabi ng mga research experts sa UP ay bumababa na daw ang mga covid cases at visible daw ito sa ibang mga ospital dito sa NCR. Although sabi naman ng DOH ay masyado pang maaga para mag celebrate tungkol dito. Magandang balita ito na kahit papaano ay nagsisimula na bumaba ang cases pero ayon din sa balita, kahit bumababa ito ay mas matitindi naman ang symptoms ng mga naoospital at  nadadagdagan ang mga mas bata na nagkakavirus.

Code:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=en7eGWXb1bg

Ano sa tingin nyo? Ilang buwan na ang lumilipas, magpapatuloy kaya ang pagbaba ng covid cases o pwedeng tumaas ulit ito dahil mas dumarami na ang nagbubukas na mga establishment at mas marami na ang nakakalabas?

[Rosilito]

Ano sa tingin nyo? Ilang buwan na ang lumilipas, magpapatuloy kaya ang pagbaba ng covid cases o pwedeng tumaas ulit ito dahil mas dumarami na ang nagbubukas na mga establishment at mas marami na ang nakakalabas?

Apparently, we really don't know anymore na haha. Pero practically saying, baka nga bumaba kung 'yong dami ng recoveries natin is magiging consistent or somewhat close to each other, and pag bumaba rin 'yong count ng new cases natin. Though by stats nga lang lahat 'to, pero 'di naman natin sigurado if certain 'yon or not since 'yong pagta-tag nila sa mga patient as recovered is pagnaka-complete lang ng 14-days quarantine  , 'di naman sigurado if may follow up test pa 'yon or wala na as I don't see any info regarding don. Either way, 'di naman na certain lahat ng 'to, to begin with.

I just hope na lang na ma-complete na ang lunas sa problemang 'to.

[cabalism13]

I just hope na lang na ma-complete na ang lunas sa problemang 'to.

Kumpleto na naman daw as of Russian Government ang kaso nga lang upon testing pa.rin atska ang posibilidad n ilabas itonay sa 2021 pa, which means maybe x2 or x3 muna ang bilang ng Covid cases and deaths bago tayo bumalik sa normal...
Para tayong nasa gera nito,... everyday may nalalagutan ng hininga at may dumadagdag na kaso.
Kaumay na talaga sa Pinas. Tara sa Dagat 😂