US Presidential Election 2020

[DireWolfM14]

This thread was going so well for such a long time.  I guess the shitposters are bound to infiltrate this subject too, why should it be any different?

Here's a tip for all you foreigners attempting to discuss American politics as if you know what the fuck you're talking about: Most of you don't.  American media is full of misinformation, slanted by political bias, and purposely meant to convey their bias as "truth," regardless of facts.  What makes you think the news you get in your country isn't slanted even more by your own media's biases?  Odds are it is.  Don't trust one source, hell don't trust ten sources, research facts for yourself if you want to know what's what.

Under Obama, the national dept was doubled.  Did I say doubled?  Because I meant DOUBLED!  He accumulated more debt than the last three presidents combined.  Trump has done an impressive job to reduce our debt, including revising trade policies with nearly every country with whom we have treaties.  Even with the unimaginable debt he'll rack up as a result of Covid, he'll crush the debt that Obummer saddled us with.

[cabalism13]

This thread was going so well for such a long time.

Actually, I haven't seen this for a few weeks, from. What I know its like a zombie that has been revived by something.

our debt,...

Seems like someone has revealed his place and debt 😂
You should thank Trump 😁👌 (jk🤭)

[DireWolfM14]

our debt,...

Seems like someone has revealed his place and debt 😂
You should thank Trump 😁👌 (jk🤭)

Unabashed, proud 'Murican from the San Francisco Bay Area.  Yeah, I'm thankful for Trump.  I didn't vote for him, even though I liked all the things he promised.  I just assumed he would turn out like every other politician; making promises he has no intention of keeping.  Unlike the others, he has worked his ass off to keep those promises.  Whether you like what he's promised or not, you have to give the man credit for trying.

Rest assured, I'll be voting for Trump this time around, and I'm not the only Californian who feels this way.  Given that California is one of the (if not THE) most liberal states in the country that ought to tell you something.

[johhnyUA]

Under Obama, the national dept was doubled.  Did I say doubled?  Because I meant DOUBLED!  He accumulated more debt than the last three presidents combined.  Trump has done an impressive job to reduce our debt, including revising trade policies with nearly every country with whom we have treaties.  Even with the unimaginable debt he'll rack up as a result of Covid, he'll crush the debt that Obummer saddled us with.

The problem is that many people can't understand anything about modern economy. They called the model where you cant create endless debt and printing money - "macroeconomics". Every idiot from economic university will tell you that this is normal and ok, so your argument about Trump and decreasing debt is shit (in the eyes of this idiot, of course).

But as ukrainian, i can't support Trump mostly because his idea to beat China in any way. And to beat China he needed to have good relationships with Russia, and Russia this is the main enemy of our country (i think you're familiar with causes why so). All his words that "Ukraine is part of Russia" and so on.

But if correspond to topic main purpose, i ll tell this again - Trump will win. This is my bet.

[bbc.reporter]

However, would it continue to be a secondary issue during the 2020 presidential election? I speculate that his mental fitness might become the biggest issue if Biden will do the accidental gaffe during the debates versus Trump hehehe.

Back in 2016, it was Hillary's election to lose. And this time, it is Biden's turn. The Demography within the United States has changed so much to the extent of giving a major advantage to the Democrat candidate. Unless Biden makes some big blunder, he should win. But as you pointed out, if he makes some political gaffe, then it can turn around the election narrative and give advantage to Trump.

It might not only be that issue. This coronavirus pandemic appears to show that America needs a war time president. I speculate that the independent voters might stay with Trump to avoid the risk with Biden.

Trump has been a little successful in pressuring China in their trade deals. Also, the Hunter Biden China issue, the General Flynn issue and other issues under Obama. This might not be good for the democrats during the presidential campaign.

Trump's main issue against him might be the poor handling of the pandemic. This issue is easy. Blame China hehehee.

[tyKiwanuka]

This thread was going so well for such a long time.  I guess the shitposters are bound to infiltrate this subject too, why should it be any different?

I think this thread is going reasonably well tbh for…..

a) being in gambling section, where a lot of people are forced to post, even if no "gamblers" and
b) being about a rather generic topic, where everyone could write a few words and has an opinion.

I only deleted a few posts that I found very spammy, but all in all I think the users engaging here are putting good effort in their posts (again: compared to other generic threads in gambling). For my liking it's missing a bit the betting/odds aspect in the posts, but that is not only an issue of this thread. Some posts are maybe more suited for threads in other boards about US politics, but no need to be super strict as long as there is effort to be seen imo.

US politics and especially Trump will always polarize and “misinformation, bias, lies, truth, facts” is just part of this show. In regards to betting, this is pretty interesting, because you CAN always only see what you want to see. The difficulty lies in being objective and weighing all information accordingly. As a non-betting person, I can just look from one perspective, but as a betting person, I need to check both sides and figure out the sentiment – regardless of my own preferences. This is not always easy, but this thread helped a bit with that maybe and all in all I enjoy reading the posts here and engaging a bit from time to time.

[Vishnu.Reang]

It might not only be that issue. This coronavirus pandemic appears to show that America needs a war time president. I speculate that the independent voters might stay with Trump to avoid the risk with Biden.

Recent opinion polls show Trump trailing badly in crucial states such as Florida and Arizona. The polls may be wrong (just like the case in 2016), so I am not going to comment about them. I would still say that Trump is not getting any boost from this pandemic. 

Trump has been a little successful in pressuring China in their trade deals. Also, the Hunter Biden China issue, the General Flynn issue and other issues under Obama. This might not be good for the democrats during the presidential campaign.

I would agree with you on this. One of the plus points with the Trump presidency is his tough handling of China. The Chinese have been put under a lot of pressure, and they were forced to make concessions.

Trump's main issue against him might be the poor handling of the pandemic. This issue is easy. Blame China hehehee.

Even now he is not changing his stance. He is in favor of opening the churches, despite the warnings from experts. Blaming China won't save him, if the virus continues to kill thousands of Americans every day.

[Captain Corporate]

 What made the biggest difference in 2016 was the fact that Hillary didn't really went to states that she needed to win, and those states went to Trump easily because he at least had rallies there. Now this doesn't mean that people who would have voted for Hillary voted for Trump just because Hillary didn't showed up, that could be true but thats not the big reason, thats a small amount of people, the real reason is in USA people do not vote too much, its not a high %90ish level voting country, so when Trump shows up, the people who would have voted for Trump or not voted at all goes out and votes for Trump, but people who would vote for Hillary but she didn't showed up decides not to vote for anyone.

 Once again Democrats are doing the same mistake, Biden is staying idle, sure there is pandemic so he has a better reason for not travelling than Hillary, and he can't just organize rallies because pandemic would create many sick people out of just one rally, hence Biden do have a good reason why he is not doing it. But he is not on TV that much neither, dude basically acts like he is not the nominee for USA presidency at all, hence once again Trump could win only because his opponent is losing, not because Trump is winning.

[tyKiwanuka]

Recent opinion polls show Trump trailing badly in crucial states such as Florida and Arizona. The polls may be wrong (just like the case in 2016), so I am not going to comment about them. I would still say that Trump is not getting any boost from this pandemic.

Recent movement in the markets confirm that to a certain extent


Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128151441

It's also ~4% surebet with betonline.ag (2.16 Trump at Betfair, 2.04 "The Field" at betonline), if anyone is interested.

-

Checking the odds for Arizona and Florida, Florida still seems a coin toss, while Democrats have slight advantage in Arizona:

Democrats odds: ~1.7 = ~58%
Republican odds: ~2.4 = ~42%

[figmentofmyass]

Recent opinion polls show Trump trailing badly in crucial states such as Florida and Arizona. The polls may be wrong (just like the case in 2016), so I am not going to comment about them. I would still say that Trump is not getting any boost from this pandemic.

Recent movement in the markets confirm that to a certain extent


Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128151441

holy shit, even odds on biden vs trump?! that was fast. i feel like trump had a 7-point lead just a couple weeks ago.

trump has now lost the entire "coronavirus bump" to his approval ratings: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

the george floyd protests may be a contributing factor. floyd was an unarmed black guy killed on duty by a white cop in minnesota. protests and riots are now erupting nationwide about police violence and racial injustice. trump responded by threatening to bring the military down on protestors. he also tweeted "when the looting starts, the shooting starts" which was widely viewed as incendiary and deleted by twitter moderation for "glorifying violence". he is now embroiled in a war with twitter and has even threatened to shut down social media sites entirely for questioning him. https://time.com/5843107/trump-threatens-social-media-twitter-fact-check/

with unemployment at staggering levels and continuing to rise, the protests and looting probably contain elements of economic unrest, which would be a very bad development for trump. this could evolve into a bigger political crisis if this level of social unrest sustains. fun fact: FDR was the last president re-elected with double digit unemployment. this was in 1940.

his war on twitter IMO is a sign he is getting worried about his ability to control the narrative. interesting developments all around!

[SquallLeonhart]

What will happen in Michigan going to change a lot of stuff as well, we all know Michigan has a lot of black voters and there is also a lot of elderly white folk there as well (from GM time there is tons) and that is why the state is divided so much, between white old folk who is known to heavily go for republicans and black voters who are known to vote democrat, its going to be a rough toss up. We all know Trump and Biden did everything in their power to make sure Trump wins there, but I am still not sure.

Trump supported the people who took up arms and rushed government building, which in any other nation could be resulted with you getting shot down, nobody has the power to pick up automatic rifles and rush a government building in other nations but Americans have weird understanding of gun rights. Biden also said to a black famous celeb he wasn't black if he didn't voted for him. So right now, they Michigan looks a bit more Trump but even with all of that, its still close, if Biden learns how to behave a bit, he could have win it easily.

[Sithara007]

From what I could see, a lot of rioting is going on even now (over the George Floyd murder issue). Curfews have been declared in a number of states, and my guess is that this situation is going to benefit Trump. This is how I think - Black voters were polarized in favor of the Democratic Party, even before the murder. Now all this rioting is going to cause a counter-polarization of white voters in favor of the Republican party.

[Vishnu.Reang]

For me, it looks like Trump want the rioting to continue. He is threatening to deploy the armed forces, but I am sure that it is never going to happen. Trump wants the riots to go on for a few days. There will be a lot of damage to public and private property and then there will be a sentiment among the working class against the rioters. Then he will suppress the rioting with an iron hand, and it will win him additional supporters.

[figmentofmyass]

From what I could see, a lot of rioting is going on even now (over the George Floyd murder issue). Curfews have been declared in a number of states, and my guess is that this situation is going to benefit Trump. This is how I think - Black voters were polarized in favor of the Democratic Party, even before the murder. Now all this rioting is going to cause a counter-polarization of white voters in favor of the Republican party.

i very much doubt that. white voters who were willing to polarize based on racial lines already did so a very long time ago. that's already been one of trump's core voting contingents.

you really think white liberals are gonna become trump supporters because he supports cops who kill unarmed people, and because he supports crushing protests with the military?

odds update:





trump's odds are sinking like a stone. 49-42 trump advantage is now a 45-47 trump disadvantage in just a couple weeks!

[TheGreatPython]

You know what all of these riots manage? They manage to rile up people to go out and vote, people who are upset about the current situation and everyone who is mad, will probably go out and vote to remove Trump from the office. You know what is more interesting?

People who are upset about a black person being killed by a cop and started protests and riots about it, probably didn't voted for Bernie Sanders the candidate that has been supporting black and all minority communities since early 60's early teenage and young adult ages. There is even pictures of him at 1968!! that he got arrested for supporting black rights.

If America wants the right politicians, they should not just riot when something bad happens, but they should go out and vote, 34% of people age between 18 and 24 vote, that means 66% of them do not even vote. Go out there and vote for every single democrat in every single county and you will see a HUGE change in politics.

[bbc.reporter]

Recent opinion polls show Trump trailing badly in crucial states such as Florida and Arizona. The polls may be wrong (just like the case in 2016), so I am not going to comment about them. I would still say that Trump is not getting any boost from this pandemic.

Recent movement in the markets confirm that to a certain extent


Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128151441

It's also ~4% surebet with betonline.ag (2.16 Trump at Betfair, 2.04 "The Field" at betonline), if anyone is interested.

-

Checking the odds for Arizona and Florida, Florida still seems a coin toss, while Democrats have slight advantage in Arizona:

Democrats odds: ~1.7 = ~58%
Republican odds: ~2.4 = ~42%

I speculate the riots all across America are moving the odds.

This might be a stupid hypothesis hehe, however, this might place Trump in a very desperate situation that might cause him to declare full war vs China before November instead of using the pandemic only as a leverage to secure business advantages.

[johhnyUA]

you really think white liberals are gonna become trump supporters because he supports cops who kill unarmed people, and because he supports crushing protests with the military?

This riots will do one interesting thing: they will polarize the american society. Some people will be strongly for Trump, another will be against him at any costs. And some people, which would stay at home under normal circumstances, after such things will go to vote for one of candidate.

And also, there enough examples how dictators won with help of such riots. Average people love "strong hand", so if Trump will use military, his real rating will increase.

[muslol67]

you really think white liberals are gonna become trump supporters because he supports cops who kill unarmed people, and because he supports crushing protests with the military?

This riots will do one interesting thing: they will polarize the american society. Some people will be strongly for Trump, another will be against him at any costs. And some people, which would stay at home under normal circumstances, after such things will go to vote for one of candidate.

And also, there enough examples how dictators won with help of such riots. Average people love "strong hand", so if Trump will use military, his real rating will increase.

Frankly, I always thought that this kind of thing could happen since the day Trump was elected. In countries where very different races live together like the USA, political balance is very important. However, the fact that this happened shortly before the election poses a question mark in the minds.

I never believed in conspiracy theories. However, the arrival of some disturbing news about the "I can't breathe" protest from Russia is also suspicious.

The US presidential elections will be more intriguing than ever, and will also be a choice that can steer human history. I think the most important indicator of this is the fact that the events taking place in the USA find a response especially in many countries. Images of a popular riot, at least as important as the US, were seen on news televisions in Brazil.

[Vishnu.Reang]

If America wants the right politicians, they should not just riot when something bad happens, but they should go out and vote, 34% of people age between 18 and 24 vote, that means 66% of them do not even vote. Go out there and vote for every single democrat in every single county and you will see a HUGE change in politics.

I don't know about the situation in the United States. But here in India, the polling percentage for this group is very low. Because a large part of them are studying in universities and colleges away from where they are registered as voters. And there is a large part who hasn't completed voter registration. And here in India, absentee voting is not allowed for anyone other than government employees.

[figmentofmyass]

you really think white liberals are gonna become trump supporters because he supports cops who kill unarmed people, and because he supports crushing protests with the military?

This riots will do one interesting thing: they will polarize the american society. Some people will be strongly for Trump, another will be against him at any costs. And some people, which would stay at home under normal circumstances, after such things will go to vote for one of candidate.

And also, there enough examples how dictators won with help of such riots. Average people love "strong hand", so if Trump will use military, his real rating will increase.

maybe so in other countries. i think you are underestimating attitudes about that in the USA, and also the amount of "white guilt" among liberal voters. i feel that anyone falling along pro/anti-law & order or racism lines was polarized by trump a long, long time ago.

the big risk for trump is that voters will actually come out in november and the more inflammatory his actions are, the more likely a big turnout becomes. the bigger the turnout, the worse trump's chances are. that's generally true for republicans, which is why they fight so hard against vote-by-mail or anything that will make it easier to vote.

biden, as expected, is capitalizing on the situation:

Biden vows to combat institutional racism as he meets with black leaders in Delaware

Biden faulted Trump, saying he has fomented racism.

"Hate just hides. It doesn't go away. And when you have somebody in power who breathes oxygen into the hate into the rocks, it comes out from under the rocks," Biden said, adding that "it matters what the President says."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/01/politics/joe-biden-institutional-racism-wilmington/index.html

odds are up for biden again. bookies say 45% trump, 48% biden.