US Presidential Election 2020

[DdmrDdmr]

^^^^ Infection rates skyrocketed in countries such as <…> Spain, when they partially relaxed the lockdown. <…>

That’s incorrect (as yet). Spain has been under severe lockdown until Saturday the 26/04/2020 (only essential working activity and purchase of provisions were allowed), where parents were allowed to go out with their kids for a (theoretical) short period of time.

On the 02/05/2020, the rest of the population people began to have some liberty to do some non-essential business such as going out for a walk (permissible activity hours assigned by age layers). People being people are often irresponsible, and certainly do not all comply with the fineprint, but there has not been any spike yet (quite on the contrary, numbers of both deaths and contagions are decreasing day by day).

Tomorrow, 51% of Spain enter a new phase, with more liberties and smaller business being able to open providing they comply with the guidelined security measures. This is going to be a real test to the whole pandemic control system there, but as yet, nothing has skyrocketed in terms of number (although I personally expect them to spike in the coming days by sheer logic after relaxing the confinement terms and cases).

[1714018219]

1714018219

[bitgolden]

Do not really try to reason with BluePowder, he is so far gone that he actually made a full cycle and makes sense in mainstream media for probably the biggest wrong reason there is yet the result makes him right while the path he took was wrong. This is USA, there is a million thing goes under the behind closed doors, however voting is voting, you go to vote and if people do not vote for someone they can't win.

If you want statistics, basically look at the day Obama won and how many people was there to watch his inauguration, and also take a look at Trumps. It is obvious that Trump is the most divisive president USA has ever had, that doesn't mean he won't win, he might, but that doesn't change that there is 50% who hate him as well as 50% who love him.

[figmentofmyass]

Trump himself and the people around him get tested every day now. It's good to discover the virus early, but since there is no real treatment yet and Trump still refuses to wear a mask, he is always in danger to catch that virus and he is among the vulnerable persons just by his age.

Just recently Pence visited a hospital, without wearing a mask:

it's really quite amazing, especially considering how inaccurate current testing is. this is trump yesterday, not a single mask in the room:



i get that they are trying to give off a perception of normality, but indeed it seems like really rash behavior.

where do you see the odds going if trump tests positive for the the coronavirus?

[tyKiwanuka]

where do you see the odds going if trump tests positive for the the coronavirus?

Phew, this is really hard to tell (read: guess). We don't know how his body will react. He looks fit to me and has no publicly known underlying conditions. Death rate in his age group is around 8%. So one could assume he will not die from it.

Since there are too many variables - just the announcement of him being positive, I could see the odds going to around 1.30+.
What happens afterwards is to be seen then. Boris Johnson is 18 years younger and from what we know, it was close for him. He probably got a way higher Corona dose, since he was even more careless than Trump is/has been. And he also looks a bit unhealthier (all things considered) than Trump.

I think it's not a bad trade opportunity, since the downside is quite low, but upside is good. Even without a positive test in the next weeks/months, the odds won't go lower than ~1.04 with all these economical consequences still to completely unfold (in US and all over the world).

[Captain Corporate]

 Dude basically appeals to his base and thats it for him, all of human life including his life can be given away just for some votes and popularity. This dude is so obsessed about being loved and getting attention that, he saw all of his supporters going out protesting the lockdown and didn't wore masks and just simply risk their lives for "freedom of dying if the chose to be infected" type of moronic behaviour that Trump probably doesn't wear a mask to appeal to them.

 You have to understand, he can't just suddenly become a better person and a better president, thats not going to happen because he doesn't know how to, maybe Bush could have been a better president if he had a change of heart, maybe papa bush could too, hell even Nixon could have, these people are smart people who knew the right way that would help the majority but decided against it to simply win votes and get their friends at the right places richer, they weren't complete morons who had no idea what they were doing like Trump is.

[Gyfts]

So Megyn Kelly did an interview with Tara Reade, Joe Biden's accuser, and the full interview was released recently which can be seen here. It's long, but it's compelling so I'd recommend giving it a listen.

A few main points to highlight -

• Tara Reade alleges Joe Biden inappropriately pushed her against a wall, grabbed under her skirt, and sexually assaulted midday in a corridor at capital hill.
• She alleges prior to this incident, Biden would be overly touchy and recalls one instance claiming Biden touched her neck and rubbed it.
• She claims that when she attempted to report inappropriate office conduct, that she was immediately shut down by her Biden's executive assistant.
• She filled out a document which stated sexual harassment allegations but never made a copy of the complaint.
• She supported Joe Biden on Twitter as recently as 2017 by retweeting statements claiming Joe Biden supported women's rights.

There are some aspects of Tara Reade's allegations that are dicey but there is some circumstantial evidence that would corroborate her story, barring documentation that would support her claim that she did in fact report sexual harassment in Biden's office in 1993. Tara Reade stated that she told multiple people about getting sexually assaulted which include her mother, and her friend "Karen", a pseudonym to maintain her anonymity. Reade's friend "Karen" has verified that she recalls hearing the story Reade told her about getting sexually assaulted while working for Biden's office. Reade's mother called into Larry King's show on CNN asking for advice on how to handle an issue her daughter was having pertaining to a prominent politician without having to go to the press. This video clip can be seen here.

Joe Biden is calling for a National Archives search of his records to uncover any reports involving Tara Reade but has refused to allow a search of his Senate documents that were turned over to the University of Delaware which could potentially contain a record of the complaint made by Reade. Reade has agreed to testifying under oath but refused to take a polygraph unless Joe Biden took also a polygraph, claiming that "'she was not a criminal" and that polygraphs were not admissible in courts regardless.

So the question is, who's telling the truth? I cannot imagine this doesn't damage Joe Biden's chances against Trump. This interview contains extremely damaging information that, if true, would undoubtedly guarantee a Trump victory -- key phrase being "if true". Reade agreeing to testify under oath was a good move, refusing the polygraph was not a good move. If you recall, Christine Blasey Ford took multiple polygraphs while also testifying under oath during the Kavanaugh hearings. I think Reade's allegation contains more evidence than Ford's allegation, but nonetheless the "correct" answer to a polygraph would have been yes.

It seems like not a lot of people are buying Reade's story, reflected by the betting markets. Maybe polling data in the upcoming weeks will be released showing a slight Biden drop, but it looks like Biden might cruise past this controversy. I myself am on the fence of who to believe. Reade did not have a good defense as to why she was retweeting tweets that stated Biden was a champion for women's rights nor was she particularly convincing as to her defense of waiting so long to reveal these allegations. Biden ran with Obama in 2008 and Reade claimed she voted for that ticket. You claimed to have gotten sexually assaulted by a guy, but you turn around and vote for him years later?

[Daniel91]

Trump himself and the people around him get tested every day now. It's good to discover the virus early, but since there is no real treatment yet and Trump still refuses to wear a mask, he is always in danger to catch that virus and he is among the vulnerable persons just by his age.

Just recently Pence visited a hospital, without wearing a mask:

it's really quite amazing, especially considering how inaccurate current testing is. this is trump yesterday, not a single mask in the room:



i get that they are trying to give off a perception of normality, but indeed it seems like really rash behavior.

where do you see the odds going if trump tests positive for the the coronavirus?

Since the start of the crisis, Trump has been behaving very irresponsibly and has not taken the necessary measures to protect the population.
He talks a lot more about opening up the economy than it does about the health of the population and saving lives.
Former President Obama commented a few days ago that there was no organization or plan to manage this crisis and that crisis management is chaotic.
Obama made the remarks during a half-hour phone call with former associates of his cabinet, a recording of which was obtained by Yahoo News.
But it seems that Trump still has a large number of people who support him no matter what he does.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Since the start of the crisis, Trump has been behaving very irresponsibly and has not taken the necessary measures to protect the population.
He talks a lot more about opening up the economy than it does about the health of the population and saving lives.
Former President Obama commented a few days ago that there was no organization or plan to manage this crisis and that crisis management is chaotic.
Obama made the remarks during a half-hour phone call with former associates of his cabinet, a recording of which was obtained by Yahoo News.
But it seems that Trump still has a large number of people who support him no matter what he does.

The US is having a two-party system, unlike most of the European nations. So most of the population identifies with one of the two main political ideologies. All of those who votes for Trump doesn't necessarily support his views on most of the subjects. They have their own reasons for voting for Trump. For example, the Evangelicals vote for him, in order to create a conservative majority in the SCOTUS.

[Daniel91]

Since the start of the crisis, Trump has been behaving very irresponsibly and has not taken the necessary measures to protect the population.
He talks a lot more about opening up the economy than it does about the health of the population and saving lives.
Former President Obama commented a few days ago that there was no organization or plan to manage this crisis and that crisis management is chaotic.
Obama made the remarks during a half-hour phone call with former associates of his cabinet, a recording of which was obtained by Yahoo News.
But it seems that Trump still has a large number of people who support him no matter what he does.

The US is having a two-party system, unlike most of the European nations. So most of the population identifies with one of the two main political ideologies. All of those who votes for Trump doesn't necessarily support his views on most of the subjects. They have their own reasons for voting for Trump. For example, the Evangelicals vote for him, in order to create a conservative majority in the SCOTUS.

Thank you,  I know it very well,  lived in America in the past.
American democracy is very different from European democracy. We have many political parties and many choices but in America voters have only 2 choices and sometimes it looks they have to choose between 2 bad possibilities like 4 years ago between Hillary and Trump  
I think I remember one article about other political parties in America a few years ago like "green party " and some independant local politicians but it seems they don't have power and resources to reach national level.
If you are from America , do you know something about it and can you share with us?
Is possible that someone else join Presidential election this year, not just candidates from 2 main parties?

[Vishnu.Reang]

Thank you,  I know it very well,  lived in America in the past.
American democracy is very different from European democracy. We have many political parties and many choices but in America voters have only 2 choices and sometimes it looks they have to choose between 2 bad possibilities like 4 years ago between Hillary and Trump  
I think I remember one article about other political parties in America a few years ago like "green party " and some independant local politicians but it seems they don't have power and resources to reach national level.
If you are from America , do you know something about it and can you share with us?
Is possible that someone else join Presidential election this year, not just candidates from 2 main parties?

I have never visited the United States, and therefore my knowledge may not be as good as yours. There are minor parties in the United States, such as the Libertarian Party, Constitution Party and the Green Party of the United States. The most prominent among them is obviously the Libertarian Party, but even they have failed to win a single seat, either in the House, or the Senate ever since their formation. Gary Johnson managed to get 4.5 million votes during POTUS 2016, but despite all that he got zero electoral votes.

[Captain Corporate]

 The thing is, if governments do not come together and manage to make it simpler for other parties to get votes or anything, it would be basically political suicide to get a third part that is leaning on one side and nobody wants a third party in the political sphere, only the people do, so it won't be done. Think about it, if you vote for the green party or any party that leans left, that means you are taking votes away from democratic party, which assures a republican win, if you create this weird fascist party (that is even more fascist than republicans I suppose) than you are going to make sure democrats will win it. So there is really no way you can do a third party without doing a fourth party, there has to be equally dividing parties so that it would be not a way to just let the other party win. It is easy to ask for many parties but it is not easy, nobody has the courage to start a big new third party while it would assure a win for the opponents.

[bitgolden]

The US is having a two-party system, unlike most of the European nations. So most of the population identifies with one of the two main political ideologies. All of those who votes for Trump doesn't necessarily support his views on most of the subjects. They have their own reasons for voting for Trump. For example, the Evangelicals vote for him, in order to create a conservative majority in the SCOTUS.

Thank you,  I know it very well,  lived in America in the past.
American democracy is very different from European democracy. We have many political parties and many choices but in America voters have only 2 choices and sometimes it looks they have to choose between 2 bad possibilities like 4 years ago between Hillary and Trump  
I think I remember one article about other political parties in America a few years ago like "green party " and some independant local politicians but it seems they don't have power and resources to reach national level.
If you are from America , do you know something about it and can you share with us?
Is possible that someone else join Presidential election this year, not just candidates from 2 main parties?

You would say that Europe doesn't really have two party system because there are more parties but looking at the party voting results, there is almost always two parties that get the most votes anyway and others are not getting enough to even matter. Look at UK for example, Boris and labor has been the two big ones, there is really not anyone else that really matters all that much.

Or look at any other place, look at Germany for example, they are basically dictatorship willingly, Merkel has been at the top for 400 years now and everyone still votes for her because.. well she does a good job, not really a dictator but she has been at the top constantly. So yeah USA has a bad system and should move towards more parties but we never really have like 5 parties all have a voice in anywhere honestly.

[casperBGD]

Or look at any other place, look at Germany for example, they are basically dictatorship willingly, Merkel has been at the top for 400 years now and everyone still votes for her because.. well she does a good job, not really a dictator but she has been at the top constantly. So yeah USA has a bad system and should move towards more parties but we never really have like 5 parties all have a voice in anywhere honestly.

it is a fact that people do not like changes, and that there is a good part of population that is always voting for the current government, no matter how they are doing, although i do think that Merkel is doing good job

regarding USA, it is great thing that their president could have two mandates top, not more than that, look at the situation in most countries where some people are always in the government, or presidency, it has to develop some kind of autocracy, it is inevitable

[johhnyUA]

Since democrats elected Biden there already no any another result than Trump victory. I will bet a little, but it's not interesting anyway. Another 4 years with Trump is coming 

[Daniel91]

The US is having a two-party system, unlike most of the European nations. So most of the population identifies with one of the two main political ideologies. All of those who votes for Trump doesn't necessarily support his views on most of the subjects. They have their own reasons for voting for Trump. For example, the Evangelicals vote for him, in order to create a conservative majority in the SCOTUS.

Thank you,  I know it very well,  lived in America in the past.
American democracy is very different from European democracy. We have many political parties and many choices but in America voters have only 2 choices and sometimes it looks they have to choose between 2 bad possibilities like 4 years ago between Hillary and Trump  
I think I remember one article about other political parties in America a few years ago like "green party " and some independant local politicians but it seems they don't have power and resources to reach national level.
If you are from America , do you know something about it and can you share with us?
Is possible that someone else join Presidential election this year, not just candidates from 2 main parties?

You would say that Europe doesn't really have two party system because there are more parties but looking at the party voting results, there is almost always two parties that get the most votes anyway and others are not getting enough to even matter. Look at UK for example, Boris and labor has been the two big ones, there is really not anyone else that really matters all that much.

Or look at any other place, look at Germany for example, they are basically dictatorship willingly, Merkel has been at the top for 400 years now and everyone still votes for her because.. well she does a good job, not really a dictator but she has been at the top constantly. So yeah USA has a bad system and should move towards more parties but we never really have like 5 parties all have a voice in anywhere honestly.

The situation in europe is very different.
Usually many more political parties participate in the government and small political parties also can affect the adoption of important state decisions.
In addition, see examples of Spain or Italy.
In the last 10 or 20 years, some major political parties have almost disappeared from the political scene and all new political parties emerged and took over the governance of the state.
In America, something like that is not possible and some new national political party has not emerged in the last 100 years.
From that point of view, america's political system seems outdated and conservative.

[bbc.reporter]

Since democrats elected Biden there already no any another result than Trump victory. I will bet a little, but it's not interesting anyway. Another 4 years with Trump is coming  

Agreed. The Democrats would have a better chance to win the independent votes with Bernie Sanders running for them. However, everyone is fearful of him because he is similar to Trump. He has his own mind.

[JohnBitCo]

Since democrats elected Biden there already no any another result than Trump victory. I will bet a little, but it's not interesting anyway. Another 4 years with Trump is coming 

Do you think that Trump is still a popular leader in united states ? He has taken many decisions in his tenure which are not been popular amount the public.
I don't think people will again vote him to be their president for another 5 years.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Since democrats elected Biden there already no any another result than Trump victory. I will bet a little, but it's not interesting anyway. Another 4 years with Trump is coming  

Agreed. The Democrats would have a better chance to win the independent votes with Bernie Sanders running for them. However, everyone is fearful of him because he is similar to Trump. He has his own mind.

Not very practical. Bernie Sanders is extreme-left and he may cost a lot of centrist votes. He may bring in Hispanic and youth votes, especially in the swing states, but overall I am not very excited about a 79-year old presidential candidate with poor reputation among the African Americans. I would say that for now, Biden seems to be the best candidate for Democrats. Sanders would have been a very good candidate against Trump in 2016. But I don't have the same opinion now.

[DireWolfM14]

Do you think that Trump is still a popular leader in united states ? He has taken many decisions in his tenure which are not been popular amount the public.
I don't think people will again vote him to be their president for another 5 years.

I would argue with that.  He has made many decisions that have not been popular with the media, but that doesn't reflect the the view of the public.  It's become far too obvious that the media has been against him from the very beginning, and the American people see through the deception.  Rich media moguls don't care what's best for the American people, they care what's best for their pocketbook, and their powerful allies in Washington.

Since most of the American media streams are relatively liberal, and therefore against Trump, much of what gets broadcast overseas is tainted with a liberal bias.  It's unfortunate, but I've seen it first hand when vising the Middle East.  I hate to say it, but American media is not to be trusted.

[bbc.reporter]

Since democrats elected Biden there already no any another result than Trump victory. I will bet a little, but it's not interesting anyway. Another 4 years with Trump is coming  

Agreed. The Democrats would have a better chance to win the independent votes with Bernie Sanders running for them. However, everyone is fearful of him because he is similar to Trump. He has his own mind.

Not very practical. Bernie Sanders is extreme-left and he may cost a lot of centrist votes. He may bring in Hispanic and youth votes, especially in the swing states, but overall I am not very excited about a 79-year old presidential candidate with poor reputation among the African Americans. I would say that for now, Biden seems to be the best candidate for Democrats. Sanders would have been a very good candidate against Trump in 2016. But I don't have the same opinion now.

That is what the mainstream media has labeled him, similar to how CNN, CBS, NBC and ABC have labeled Trump as a personification of Hitler. However, Bernie has shown to be more reasonable than Hillary and Biden.

Also, Bernie is 78, Biden is 77. On relative age, they are similar.