US Presidential Election 2020

[Vishnu.Reang]

That is what the mainstream media has labeled him, similar to how CNN, CBS, NBC and ABC have labeled Trump as a personification of Hitler. However, Bernie has shown to be more reasonable than Hillary and Biden.

Also, Bernie is 78, Biden is 77. On relative age, they are similar.

As I stated earlier, Sanders was a much better candidate when compared to Hillary Clinton back in 2016. For that matter, anyone other than Hillary would have beaten Trump in a comprehensive manner. The Democrat established rigged the primaries in favor of Hillary, and the Sanders supporters retaliated by not voting for anyone. But this time that is not the case. Sanders has endorsed Biden. And from what I can see, Biden has been more successful in uniting the various voting blocks of Democrats (such as Afro-Americans, Hispanics, feminists, youth.etc).

[1713866678]

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[johhnyUA]

Agreed. The Democrats would have a better chance to win the independent votes with Bernie Sanders running for them. However, everyone is fearful of him because he is similar to Trump. He has his own mind.

Yes, i thought about Bernie too. I don't think he would win, but at least all this would be not so obvious. Problem of Bernie was that his electorate consisted mostly from lazy zoomers, which ignored elections. I think something the same would happen on president election. Means that Trump would win anyway.

[babygun]

Since democrats elected Biden there already no any another result than Trump victory. I will bet a little, but it's not interesting anyway. Another 4 years with Trump is coming 

I am not so sure that Trump will win. Without the corona crisis, I would say that it was an easy win for Trump, but right now? But it is too bad that Biden is not a super candidate for the Democrats, if they would have someone such as Obama...

[STT]

The corona deal makes a democrat victory twice as likely as it might have been.    Bernie is populism and Biden is about the collective parts of those who oppose Trump, of the two disregarding policy Biden is more likely to win for covering the more diverse range of actual voters.   I love the Bernie memes just like I wanted Ron Paul to go somewhere but theres not the grip to move large parts of the voting population and make a viable run.   My bet would be for democrat win so long as the odds are worth going that way.   Nothing is going to come close to a risk:reward pay off that Trump had; he was the dark horse because he'd constantly appear to snuff out his own chances yet here we are.
   Also the filter the media give all news has to be removed to consider odds properly, makes it far harder to judge when they not able to be impartial.



The old Clinton usurper whiteboard meta, still stands that upset voters can change party far more.    [The economy, stupid.   Dont forget heathcare]

where do you see the odds going if trump tests positive for the the coronavirus?

That'd help Trump as it places him with the people, presuming he survives.     

[figmentofmyass]

Since democrats elected Biden there already no any another result than Trump victory. I will bet a little, but it's not interesting anyway. Another 4 years with Trump is coming 

Do you think that Trump is still a popular leader in united states ? He has taken many decisions in his tenure which are not been popular amount the public.
I don't think people will again vote him to be their president for another 5 years.

incumbent leaders typically get a big popularity boost during major crises. trump's approval rating is up 7-8% from the trough, despite his administration's utter failure vs the coronavirus pandemic. people also prefer a tough talking "wartime" type president like trump in times like these, rather than a weak pro-establishment dud like joe biden.

between the coronavirus scare, the democrats fracturing between centrists and center-leftists, and the fact that he is the incumbent, trump has a strong chance of winning in november.

according to betfair's odds, the likelihood of a trump victory just went up 1% (to 49%) over the last day or two. biden is still at 42%. https://odds.watch/trump-2020

[Daniel91]

Since democrats elected Biden there already no any another result than Trump victory. I will bet a little, but it's not interesting anyway. Another 4 years with Trump is coming  

I am not so sure that Trump will win. Without the corona crisis, I would say that it was an easy win for Trump, but right now? But it is too bad that Biden is not a super candidate for the Democrats, if they would have someone such as Obama...

I think that is very difficult to predict Presidential election this year.
Who know what can happen until November?
If many people dies from corona virus than I'm sure Trump will loose elections.
But, right now Trump is all the time on TV news and in newspapers and if he solve corona crisis I think that Biden have no chance against him in November.
People like winers 😁

[Vishnu.Reang]

Since democrats elected Biden there already no any another result than Trump victory. I will bet a little, but it's not interesting anyway. Another 4 years with Trump is coming 

I am not so sure that Trump will win. Without the corona crisis, I would say that it was an easy win for Trump, but right now? But it is too bad that Biden is not a super candidate for the Democrats, if they would have someone such as Obama...

At this point, Biden is the best candidate they have. He has a better chance of winning swing states such as Wisconsin and Arizona, when compared to any of the other potential candidates. You can't compare Biden with Obama. Both have different personalities and obviously Obama was extremely popular. But Obama is not going to be the candidate in 2020.

During the last 2-3 days, we had opinion polls from AZ and FL, two of the states which are crucial for Trump to have a realistic chance in 2020. Check the results yourself:

AZ: https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/7453540/Arizona%20Public%20Opinion%20Pulse%20-%20Presidential.pdf
FL: https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2020/biden-leads-trump-in-florida.php

[Gyfts]

Since democrats elected Biden there already no any another result than Trump victory. I will bet a little, but it's not interesting anyway. Another 4 years with Trump is coming 

I am not so sure that Trump will win. Without the corona crisis, I would say that it was an easy win for Trump, but right now? But it is too bad that Biden is not a super candidate for the Democrats, if they would have someone such as Obama...

At this point, Biden is the best candidate they have. He has a better chance of winning swing states such as Wisconsin and Arizona, when compared to any of the other potential candidates. You can't compare Biden with Obama. Both have different personalities and obviously Obama was extremely popular. But Obama is not going to be the candidate in 2020.

During the last 2-3 days, we had opinion polls from AZ and FL, two of the states which are crucial for Trump to have a realistic chance in 2020. Check the results yourself:

AZ: https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/7453540/Arizona%20Public%20Opinion%20Pulse%20-%20Presidential.pdf
FL: https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2020/biden-leads-trump-in-florida.php

In what world is Biden a good candidate? The polls show Biden leading because media coverage is dominated by coronavirus and Biden is pretty much immune from media scrutiny. His cognitive decline and allegations of sexual assault by Tara Reade pretty much flew right under the radar but Trump isn't going to let that go, nor are his Super PACS. I wouldn't be surprised if some pro-Trump commercials show Biden grabbing women and making them uncomfortable on camera.

Biden is an awful candidate.

[pakhitheboss]

Since democrats elected Biden there already no any another result than Trump victory. I will bet a little, but it's not interesting anyway. Another 4 years with Trump is coming  

I am not so sure that Trump will win. Without the corona crisis, I would say that it was an easy win for Trump, but right now? But it is too bad that Biden is not a super candidate for the Democrats, if they would have someone such as Obama...

I think that is very difficult to predict Presidential election this year.
Who know what can happen until November?
If many people dies from corona virus than I'm sure Trump will loose elections.
But, right now Trump is all the time on TV news and in newspapers and if he solve corona crisis I think that Biden have no chance against him in November.
People like winers 😁

Agreed!

Last time also he was always on the TV for something or the other. A lot of negative publicity helped him in winning the elections. I believe that the same is happening again and if he is able to solve this crisis then he might win once again.

[Daniel91]

Since democrats elected Biden there already no any another result than Trump victory. I will bet a little, but it's not interesting anyway. Another 4 years with Trump is coming  

I am not so sure that Trump will win. Without the corona crisis, I would say that it was an easy win for Trump, but right now? But it is too bad that Biden is not a super candidate for the Democrats, if they would have someone such as Obama...

I think that is very difficult to predict Presidential election this year.
Who know what can happen until November?
If many people dies from corona virus than I'm sure Trump will loose elections.
But, right now Trump is all the time on TV news and in newspapers and if he solve corona crisis I think that Biden have no chance against him in November.
People like winers 😁

Agreed!

Last time also he was always on the TV for something or the other. A lot of negative publicity helped him in winning the elections. I believe that the same is happening again and if he is able to solve this crisis then he might win once again.

Any publicity is good publicity 😀
Ask Biden,  he can't go around now and give public spechees and can use only social media.
Trump know it very well and using media events very well,  promoting his ideas.

[johhnyUA]

Since democrats elected Biden there already no any another result than Trump victory. I will bet a little, but it's not interesting anyway. Another 4 years with Trump is coming 

I am not so sure that Trump will win. Without the corona crisis, I would say that it was an easy win for Trump, but right now? But it is too bad that Biden is not a super candidate for the Democrats, if they would have someone such as Obama...

As many said before me, Trump got lucky with this coronavirus case. Rating of most presidents and politics (in Ukraine too, lol) is rising due to all this situation. And in autumn, average american will remember Trump as a president which lead country across coronavirus pandemia.  

[Vishnu.Reang]

In what world is Biden a good candidate? The polls show Biden leading because media coverage is dominated by coronavirus and Biden is pretty much immune from media scrutiny. His cognitive decline and allegations of sexual assault by Tara Reade pretty much flew right under the radar but Trump isn't going to let that go, nor are his Super PACS. I wouldn't be surprised if some pro-Trump commercials show Biden grabbing women and making them uncomfortable on camera.

Biden is an awful candidate.

If Biden was "immune" from media scrutiny, then this scandal would have never surfaced. On the other hand, it is being covered by all the major media outlets. And let's not forget the numerous scandals against Donald Trump. There is no doubt that the American media is politically motivated. CNN/MSNBC and similar channels favor the Democrats, while outlets such as the Fox News support the Republicans. Now let's not assume that Biden enjoys media support across the spectrum.

[Darkoth89]

The polical system of the United States is a damn joke. After almost four years of Donald Trump, saying and doing whatever the f*** comes to his mind, snubing with most of their allies and partners and leaving the country with the biggest recession since the great depression, all the Democrats have to offer is Joe Biden as their candidate?! Seriously?! Biden, who is so sick he maybe can't even remember his own name in four years should lead the United States in such though times?! The Democrats had 4 years to build up a stong, charismatic candidate but they failed! They are not part of the solution, they are part of the problem!

The Americans should really start waking up. It seems like in the minds of a lot of them they see themself as the best nation on earth but in reality they have the healtcare system of a third world country, their political (and military) interventions around the globe cause a lot of suffering, racism is a huge problem, especially when you pair it with the their gun fanatismn.

[figmentofmyass]

The polical system of the United States is a damn joke. After almost four years of Donald Trump, saying and doing whatever the f*** comes to his mind, snubing with most of their allies and partners and leaving the country with the biggest recession since the great depression, all the Democrats have to offer is John Biden as their candidate?! Seriously?! Biden, who is so sick he maybe can't even remember his own name in four years should lead the United States in such though times?! The Democrats had 4 years to build up a stong, charismatic candidate but they failed!

it's obvious the democrats are a broken party with a fractured identity. there is an increasing push towards the left within the party (the progressive wing) and this has been exemplified by the moderate success but ultimate defeat of the bernie sanders campaign.

the centrists and center-leftists are cannibalizing the party. on top of that, the push towards the left may make moderate democrat voters (who normally back fiscal conservatives like "the blue dogs") swing republican.

biden was their best attempt at a purely centrist candidate capable of retaining the moderates. IMO they were hoping to stimulate nostalgia for the obama years and also may have underestimated his cognitive dysfunction.

unlike many in this thread, i don't think trump is a shoo-in. if the economic recovery does not pan out as promised over the next few months, he may be facing a big reversal in opinion. i roughly agree with the odds bookies are giving. if it's either biden or trump, i would expect trump to win 11 or 12 times out of 20.

[STT]

Biden is just a figure head, its not his job to do everything himself so I dont judge the candidate on themselves exclusively its more about how many people can they shake hands with (or not currently) and do business, its the entire network and as a former vice president its very obvious why he is there.   He has experience if nothing else you could say, maybe that just means shutting up and not saying stupid things which possibly could be a struggle but its not going to be any worse then current situation surely.  
  In short I believe politics and democracy is quite ironic, the main element of importance is not too much reliance on one person or section of government because you can bet mistakes will be made and its more important how easily can they be corrected and adjusted back to correct course.
  In recession anything is going to be possible this year so its a big change possibly, might for the best because I read of some proposed crypto legisliation and the less the better.

[Darkoth89]

biden was their best attempt at a purely centrist candidate capable of retaining the moderates. IMO they were hoping to stimulate nostalgia for the obama years and also may have underestimated his cognitive dysfunction.

I totally agree with you here.  But, as I said, if Biden really is the best that they can offer after four years of Trump, that's a serious indictment and only plays into the hands of Trump. I must admit I didn't follow the primaries of the Democrats that closely but do they really don't have someone younger and healthier, someone without (the usual) scandals, someone charismatic? Just look at Finnland or New Zealand! Sad that someone like Buttigieg never had (and never will have) a real chance.

The problem is that the Democrats were resting on the success of Obama. In his second term they should've already started to promote and strengthen his successor. But what were they doing since then?!

[tyKiwanuka]

Very good discussions and insights lately, keep it up guys

I totally agree with you here.  But, as I said, if Biden really is the best that they can offer after four years of Trump, that's a serious indictment and only plays into the hands of Trump.

Agree as well. It could be a walk in the park for Democrats imo, if only they had someone more charismatic, like Cuomo lol. And probably a bit younger for my liking. Age normally shouldn't matter, but Trump already set a record for the oldest president at inauguration with 70 years. Biden would put that bar 8 years up and his health issues were mentioned before.

But as we all know, there are agendas, nepotism, lobbyists and what else. I think Biden is or will be just a tool for certain people, if he gets in the WH. In general it's not necessarily the president/leader that makes the decisions, but people in the background - and this goes not only for the US. The presidents are just the frontmen/-women and faces of a government


The Cuomo bet/trade, which made me open this thread, doesn't look too good now.


Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128151441

I put some more on him @55-60, but his odds keep rising. He is a bit out of the spotlight with things getting better in New York, which doesn't help. Taking a slow approach with reopening the (down-)state is the correct thing to do imo, but not very well liked by a lot of people. It's tough to find the right balance and you never can please everyone.

[Emitdama]

Sanders doesn't have a "poor reputation" with black people, dude was endorsed by a lot of black people that have a position and he worked with people of color in many legislation as well. Just because Biden got more votes from blacks doesn't mean blacks dislike Bernie, people could like both candidates and prefer one over the other as well. Why did people voted for Biden and not Bernie in black communities? For a simple fact that Biden was endorsed by the first and last African American president of USA history. Biden was the VP of Obama, that plays a HUUGE role specially with older black people, and it should as well, it worths a lot.

At the same time, let's not forget that Biden works with Bernie's team on his Task force, there will be 2 people in each commission one appointed by Biden and one by Bernie, so they will basically have a joined team. Democrats are not as divided as the voters, Biden voters and Bernie voters are quite different to each other, and even hate each other so much that they would rather have Trump, however Biden and Bernie is not THAT different, the focus for them is to get Trump out of the office, NO MATTER WHAT, and voters see how they work together hand in hand instead of trying to fight each other.

Either you are going to have Biden who would maybe be a bad president and not achieve what he says he will, maybe he will do some bad stuff, or you are going to have Trump, a president that does so many illegal things that he was investigated by FBI and said if he wasn't the president he would have been charged, and on top of that he was impeached as well, and basically all around a very bad person on top of a bad president. So maybe democrats should look to Trump before they criticize Biden.

I love Bernie, I am not from USA and even with that I still follow AOC and Bernie on instagram, I really would love Bernie to my president even though he is not from here, but that doesn't mean just because he is not the candidate, Trump would be same with Biden, you guys did that with Hillary and I get that Hillary is not the best but look what you got when you didn't voted Hillary, you really think she would be THIS bad?

[Gyfts]

In what world is Biden a good candidate? The polls show Biden leading because media coverage is dominated by coronavirus and Biden is pretty much immune from media scrutiny. His cognitive decline and allegations of sexual assault by Tara Reade pretty much flew right under the radar but Trump isn't going to let that go, nor are his Super PACS. I wouldn't be surprised if some pro-Trump commercials show Biden grabbing women and making them uncomfortable on camera.

Biden is an awful candidate.

If Biden was "immune" from media scrutiny, then this scandal would have never surfaced. On the other hand, it is being covered by all the major media outlets. And let's not forget the numerous scandals against Donald Trump. There is no doubt that the American media is politically motivated. CNN/MSNBC and similar channels favor the Democrats, while outlets such as the Fox News support the Republicans. Now let's not assume that Biden enjoys media support across the spectrum.

It hardly surfaced at all. It took Tara Reade a month to even get the story out there until her newspaper covered the allegation and interviewed her. It took weeks for Biden to be asked a single question about the sexual assault allegation meanwhile Trump gets asked on a national debate stage about his sexual assault allegations without a single ounce of proof from any of the accusers. I'm all for due processes and I think Joe Biden deserves his due process. But Biden's gotten a free pass from the media and the "believe all women" crowd that supported Christine Blasey Ford during the Kavanaugh hearings seem to be awfully quiet when it's their guy under fire. CNN/MSNBC are blatant propaganda rags at this point and it does not surprise me that they wouldn't ever criticize Joe Biden, even more moderate news outlets refused to cover the allegations until over a month after they went public. This is after some circumstantial evidence of Reade's allegation were released, such as the fact her mother called in to CNN's Larry King to ask for advice about an issue her daughter was having with a prominent senator. The caller was confirmed to be Reade's mother. This phone call alone is more evidence than Dr. Ford offered yet it seemed the media covered the rape allegations against Kavanaugh in a more adamant nature.

[johhnyUA]

Biden is an awful candidate.

He is awful for few reasons:

1. He is old.

2. His son is corrupt (it's funny, because in our country, Ukraine, you can;t do any business without a bribe, so, if you want to deal with Ukraine, you need to bribe) and because all this scandal in Ukraine it will be hard to Biden get out of this. It's a trump card for Trump 

3. He is democrat, but as i know, major part of americans want from president another promises, than promise to feed all Mexicans.