Globb0 BTC charts

[Globb0]

Nifty, I prefer the dark side charts also.    I have a similar outlook though I think its best to have several takes and see which plays out as most accurate, not be too attached to any one point of view.  I dont have the December lows as a trend, I was thinking that range could relate as prior volume and so some resistance or boundary.   Top price recently have been 50 day but indicators dont cap prices beyond immediate perception.
  Most important is the uptrend line and how that plays out vs any delay in progress upwards.   Its a similar recovery that we saw through January though from a much lower point.  

Thanks. Totally agree with your points. Look to see what's happening, then see if it held. Reflect and hopefully learn.



The daily was threatening a shooting star but in the end it just closed a bit down, not much to see, not worth a picture long thin ends on the candle shows the market shuffling their positions around.

Hourly did dip back a bit but tentatively OK.


At this point I would not decide to build my house on the ground.

*edit*
And I did say no chart but here is something different, something of a recovery from the horrible zone



*/edit*

[1713877965]

1713877965

[Globb0]

Cleaned up my triangles now and back to the hourly,

This is where the battle is at

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Yes. I agree that 7100 is a key support here ... but i would not underestimate 7250 that seems to be important test in Wyckoff formation. What do you think Globb0?

[Globb0]

What do you think Globb0?

Yes interesting.

It could be the start of a little bit of oscillation similar to that I saw a while back on XMR. I was asking Kurious about it at the time.


I think its an indicator things are very finely balanced, also good news is that went up eventually when it broke the oscillations.

[Globb0]

So I feel I was right we had a few oscilations.

They aren't perfect but Im sure it shows a situation of fine balance.


I notice how the support seems to be building in each time and that's making me lean towards up next.

We are still within the main battle channel, so until that is breached, well.

i would not underestimate 7250

Good call, I added more supports above,

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Thanks for the chart. But the way I look at it, seems to be running on some resistance. However, if we can manage to close  the daily candle above the 50 day MA and potentially convergences at the 200 day MA @79xx levels, interesting to see how everything will pan out.

[exstasie]

So I feel I was right we had a few oscilations.

They aren't perfect but Im sure it shows a situation of fine balance.

I notice how the support seems to be building in each time and that's making me lean towards up next.

We are still within the main battle channel, so until that is breached, well.

I still think we'll eventually hit the low $8,000s, filling this gap in the volume profile and tagging the 200-day MA:



Tim West's TAM system has me second guessing the short term though. On that chart we can see a 13-day mode (see the yellow line ~ $6,700). Per his system, we are on Day 3 of a range expansion out of that mode. If we don't hit ~ $7,800 by today's close, the signal is invalidated. Usually that suggests a retest of the mode (the $6,700 area). Assuming it holds as support, we're on for the $8,000s again.

I like this theory because the timing works better with the halving narrative. It means the final top will be a week or three out, which suits my theory that sellers will distribute ahead of the halving just like 2016. It also provides much better risk/reward on new long entries. Risk wise, this is a dangerous area to enter longs.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Enjoying your analysis Globb0, I didn’t know you were able to do TA. You hid your skills from us for too long
I’m interested to see where we go price wise in the next 8 or so weeks, obviously a month before & a month after the halving. I’d expect to see a speculative rise pre halving followed by the inevitable dump shortly post halving like previous times. We’ll then continue to rise slowly throughout 2020, calling a top of $13,000 by end of 2020.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

I like this theory because the timing works better with the halving narrative. It means the final top will be a week or three out, which suits my theory that sellers will distribute ahead of the halving just like 2016. It also provides much better risk/reward on new long entries. Risk wise, this is a dangerous area to enter longs.

I have seen your thread as well, if I remember correctly, you may have predicted (prior to the corona virus outbreak) that we might see some a sell-off in March which eventually happened and then April, the start of the recovery ahead of the block halving in May. Good call btw. Yes, there are risks, but I will be bullish and anticipating some big moves along the way.

[Globb0]

Enjoying your analysis Globb0, I didn’t know you were able to do TA. You hid your skills from us for too long
I’m interested to see where we go price wise in the next 8 or so weeks, obviously a month before & a month after the halving. I’d expect to see a speculative rise pre halving followed by the inevitable dump shortly post halving like previous times. We’ll then continue to rise slowly throughout 2020, calling a top of $13,000 by end of 2020.

I did a udemy course to get me started, it was focussed on resistance and reversal/confirmation indicators. I plan to learn more.

Will be good to get back zoomed out to the daily then for your purposes.

Hopefully something good to see soon as idling atm.

[akhjob]

I did a udemy course to get me started, it was focussed on resistance and reversal/confirmation indicators. I plan to learn more.

Will be good to get back zoomed out to the daily then for your purposes.

Hopefully something good to see soon as idling atm.

I hope you started learning a few days back because of the lockdown. If so can you please share the course link? Because I myself started to reading a book suggested by my friend recently and having a hard time figuring out the patterns. Considering how fast you learnt, if you could share the link, it would be very helpful. Thanks.

[Globb0]

Sorry it was ages ago I kept adding any free well rated courses.

I got a few on BTC and trading.

I have an alert setup for when they have deals usually free (for a day or 2) courses. Add as many as you like.

by way of an example here is a list from yesterday

https://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/free-best-sellers-highest-rated-udemy-courses-video-production-bootcamp-python-javascript-photoshop-digital-marketing-masterclass-3437263

Topics are a bit hit and miss, but over time you see what you want free. Not too bad.

[buwaytress]

I have seen your thread as well, if I remember correctly, you may have predicted (prior to the corona virus outbreak) that we might see some a sell-off in March which eventually happened and then April, the start of the recovery ahead of the block halving in May. Good call btw. Yes, there are risks, but I will be bullish and anticipating some big moves along the way.

Yeah, actually I count at least 3 forum gentlemen who rather made the right -- if slightly unpopular -- call about the fallback in March and lows below $4k, though to be fair, I bet none of them expected all these converging banking/economy/geopolitics/pandemic threats to come together at once.

I rather enjoy being a pessimist, but it still sends chills down my spine to read TAs that come together nicely.

[akhjob]

Sorry it was ages ago I kept adding any free well rated courses.

I got a few on BTC and trading.

I have an alert setup for when they have deals usually free (for a day or 2) courses. Add as many as you like.

by way of an example here is a list from yesterday

https://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/free-best-sellers-highest-rated-udemy-courses-video-production-bootcamp-python-javascript-photoshop-digital-marketing-masterclass-3437263

Topics are a bit hit and miss, but over time you see what you want free. Not too bad.

Oh.. From your conversation with LFC, I thought you started recently and excelled at a miraculous speed 
So my friend was right about the "patience" needed for trading after all  Anyways thanks for the link, hope the codes are not (UK) region-specific.

[Globb0]

Oh.. From your conversation with LFC, I thought you started recently and excelled at a miraculous speed 
So my friend was right about the "patience" needed for trading after all  Anyways thanks for the link, hope the codes are not (UK) region-specific.

Kind words,

I have been watching here for years and years that was my real education.

Patience surely is a thing don't end up all mindrust.



Support has grown and we continue in the channel.

For sparta!

[Globb0]

RED ALERT!

Smashed down through the channel on the hourly, bears won for now. RSI in the gutter.




But remember I need to see where to daily closes it may not yet be breached after all?

War rages on, long tips on candles, positions are shuffling about.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

^ Oh well, it was a short-live rally, bears won, I thought we have the upper hand, game over for bulls for now. So obviously, trend line is falling, but I'm not ready to buy yet, the price hasn't break the resistance line yet.

@buwaytress - if I'm not mistaken, @mikeywith also made a good call back then.

[El duderino_]

Enjoying your analysis Globb0, I didn’t know you were able to do TA. You hid your skills from us for too long
I’m interested to see where we go price wise in the next 8 or so weeks, obviously a month before & a month after the halving. I’d expect to see a speculative rise pre halving followed by the inevitable dump shortly post halving like previous times. We’ll then continue to rise slowly throughout 2020, calling a top of $13,000 by end of 2020.

Don’t underestimate the Globmeister, his skills are unknown for us mortals

[Tytanowy Janusz]

I like this theory because the timing works better with the halving narrative. It means the final top will be a week or three out, which suits my theory that sellers will distribute ahead of the halving just like 2016. It also provides much better risk/reward on new long entries. Risk wise, this is a dangerous area to enter longs.

I might be wrong (and i accept criticism with open hands) but i think that halving may not have big influence on the price. Here are few numbers.

1- first halving decrease inflation from ~27% to ~13%, third one will decrease inflation from 3.6% to 1.8%. Every halving has lower fundamental input into price. It's becoming only speculative pump and dump event and investors knows about that.
2- We weren't in pandemic fear during last halvings, we also weren't recovering after 60% dump.
3-FED just announced 2.3 trillion $ print "fighting with covid-19" (it's not the first print last month). Doing that they increased whole world money supply by ~3%. During single print. In my opinion it may have bigger fundamental influence on bitcoin price than halving.
the broad money supply ($80.9 trillion).
Federal Reserve takes additional actions to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans to support the economy
Am i wrong with my calculation? It looks so unrealistic.
4-We base only on 2 previous events. It may be not enough to draw conclusions (when you play coin toss 2 times there is a chance that you will have 2 times tails - you could make a false conclusion that it will always land on tails)

Of course there are a bunch of short term investors that play this strategy (buy and sell 1 month before halving) and the amount of money that stands behind them may push price as you described, but i'm not sure if they will be strong enough in current market situation. Especially that they are mostly under water now and part of them might already dump in fear of covid panic (or was liquidated due to margin-call).

[Globb0]

People are always posting that meme 1 BTC = 1 BTC


Im womdering does 1 $ even equal 1 $ now?

Perhaps its 1 $ = 0.7 $