Globb0 BTC charts

[Globb0]

Well the daily did close under the old battle channel so it is lost.

Here is a rebase for the daily chart taking that into account.

Also a scary triangle, break could be down. Not  seeming in line with halving sentiment though?




Zooming into the hourly chart



Low volume noted. Its the bleakend.




Its not inconceivable there is less general money slushing around as people lose their income streams and guard their bit of money for emergencies. Will that mean a blead down?

Especially because its global not local, there is no bypass factor for some groups people.

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[Tytanowy Janusz]

I'm bullish. After 5 years trading stocks and 2.5 years on crypto the only thing that cheated me the least is whale hunting.

Who is selling?
1- Halving traders
2- In need of money due to covid
3- TA traders due to perfect short position (breaking triangle and bouncing from strong trend line - target 4000$)
4- covid panic sellers

Who is buying?
Literally no one. I don't see even a single reason why to buy now. Even a single buy signal.

My whale detector flashes red. We should test 6000-6400 and meanwhile we stay at 6800 - at perfect short/sell price. Market most often does not give you 2 days to open position in situation like this one.

Maybe it's because of the holidays and price will crash making me looking like an idiot. Nevertheless, I posted that because based on my trading experience someone is buying the false breakout.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

More of a $6150 retest to me, before going to the moon before halving.

[exstasie]

I still think we'll eventually hit the low $8,000s, filling this gap in the volume profile and tagging the 200-day MA:



Tim West's TAM system has me second guessing the short term though. On that chart we can see a 13-day mode (see the yellow line ~ $6,700). Per his system, we are on Day 3 of a range expansion out of that mode. If we don't hit ~ $7,800 by today's close, the signal is invalidated. Usually that suggests a retest of the mode (the $6,700 area). Assuming it holds as support, we're on for the $8,000s again.

We made it down to $6,750 and tested that mode area. Nice reaction, pumping back to $7,200. This bodes well for another leg up.

One thing to keep in mind is BTC doesn't really have a mind of its own anymore. It just follows the stock market now. When stock and futures markets are closed, BTC price moves basically stop being meaningful. They don't follow through.

Stock futures open in an hour. Let's see what they have to say about next week. If SPX and DOW mini futures open the week bullish, I would say that's very good news for BTC, which is already showing a propensity for upside from here.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Maybe it's because of the holidays and price will crash making me looking like an idiot.

And it happens ...
I went to sleep seeing how BTC fights with 7200 being happy with my bullish call. In the meantime SP500 futures opens and show direction for whole world. I wake up as an Idiot and BTC below 6750 support.
It looks like BTC was so lazy during last days only because of holidays.

@exstasie good call with this:

One thing to keep in mind is BTC doesn't really have a mind of its own anymore. It just follows the stock market now. When stock and futures markets are closed, BTC price moves basically stop being meaningful. They don't follow through.

Stock futures open in an hour. Let's see what they have to say about next week. If SPX and DOW mini futures open the week bullish, I would say that's very good news for BTC, which is already showing a propensity for upside from here.

[adaseb]

The trend is still bullish until we hit the $8000 area where we fell hard and had that nasty crash last month. The issue is that it seems to be following S&P 500 if you were trading earlier both of them had a huge down move earlier. So if the stock markets are finally going to make LH and LL then I can see BTC retest the $4000 area.

However I wouldn't short yet, and in the $8K area I would wait for confirmation to short. Too many people want to short the $8K area which makes me cautious about opening any positions there. Plus who knows when the stock markets could turn. The S&P500 might end up makin a new ATH before it finally starts breaking down and breaks the low of March. Currently on the hourly its bullish and who even knows if they will stay correlated in the future. BTC might trade sideways or go down while S&P500 keeps going up and up or vice versa.

[Globb0]

a scary triangle, break could be down.

Ouch leaving the triangle, will it close under?



Hourly news  



Dare I say pump and dump or at least dump on pump.

1 obvious big dump effort on otherwise low volume.

Big support drawn yellow, pushed back this time.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

2 trend lines have been broken already, not a good sign. Price have been slowly dropping after touching $7300, so that's around what? 5%-6% decline. And it seems that BTC have showed some correlations with stocks (others will argue with this, sorry), but it this is true it might take down crypto towards the lower $6k'sh.

[exstasie]

The S&P500 might end up makin a new ATH before it finally starts breaking down and breaks the low of March.

That's impossible. Nobody is that dumb. The market is pricing in massive economic contractions right now, not just slowdowns. We're past the point where this could be considered a few week long disruption. It's a confirmed recession now, one that is likely to continue into 2021 based on all reasonable projections.

Many DOW and SPX companies (who have mostly yet to release financials for Q1 yet) are looking at 20-90% revenue reductions. The stock market maybe disconnected from overall economic health, but it is not that disconnected from company financial health.

At best, the SPX might retrace to the 0.618-0.786 before it gets sold off to hell. And that's an optimistic view.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

That's impossible. Nobody is that dumb.

Overleveraged shorts does not have brain. Liquidated positions will be buying that day. I would also like to point out that we never had recession combined with FED's "infinite money" [1] [2]. We may see 2200-3200 consolidation for next 5-10 years. Average investor will be close to 0% profit/loss but in the same time he will be lost 50% on purchasing power of his money.

SP500 recover will increase market optimism and informations on subsequent prints will reduce risk aversion - I was never more bullish on bitcoin (long term 1-5 years)

Just take a look how the market reacted to unemployment data that were many times worse than analysts' estimates. Resistance to bad data is the first determinant of the dip.

[buwaytress]

@Ty I actually agree with you, there's everyone selling and there isn't a buy signal, but just last week we were seeing record lows for deposits to exchanges. And on Friday we're seeing BitMEX refilling hot wallets with over $1B of btc.

Which tells me, people aren't selling. They're even withdrawing from exchanges. So they're holding. Not buying. Only traders, people who need money, all those like you said, are selling. So we're seeing slow drops at low volumes.

Good news for us.

[Globb0]

Reply to last few posts

The beast is eating itself

[JL0]

We were rejected by the 50DMA again. Do you think we can see the $4-5K on the halving ?

[Globb0]

We were rejected by the 50DMA again. Do you think we can see the $4-5K on the halving ?

I recognise a similar triangle here, I cant say at the moment the price direction. I feel like I'm standing on shifting sand.

Such a tease the triangle didn't close broken yet.

What a tease, in fact look few days its been completely neutral like someone turned off the machine.

Look also RSI.     "Clear!"  *KAchung*    "Clear!"  *Kachung*




Lets get into the hourly view and see



Well, look its conforming quite well to the boundaries, what will happen?  hmmmmmm


Oh yeah, forgot my other duties!

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Good thing $6600'ish hasn't been touch, but the pressure is still on the bulls.

This is the danger zone for me, we might see a big drop if that support levels are broken. So we need to wait if this is going to be validated in the next coming days. If it's invalidated then obviously, we might see some upside.

[vapourminer]

so, disclaimer: i dont do TA, rarely look at charts or even the price of corn most days. got some stuff laddered on exchange for whatever happens and the rest is hodl.

so why post? well went to log into a bank account today and the back end was down and was informed the system crashed "with all the people looking stimulus money."

huh.

so for years banks push us to bank online as much as possible and now that they have their wish.. only drive through and limited appoints for anything else that needs an in bank visit with a human.

and they flub it with crappy infrastructure.

so this is my TA: btc wins simply because no financial institution has the tech to play reliably anymore. all traditional banks have just patches to COBOL programs (heh i took that language in college) and patch patch patch print brrrr brrr brr

[Globb0]

heh.


Lets see today the daily chart



It did close out of the triangle, boooo!

But then immediately what's this a reversal sign? highlighted and a few recent similar times.


Down to the hourly,



As above, broke down strong from the triangle but what's this a reversal symbol? note the risen volume.

At least again solid resistance and push back.


Still I don't feel there is a clear direction, this is like don't trade time.


Captains message - *Belts on as a precaution*

[exstasie]

Still I don't feel there is a clear direction, this is like don't trade time.

Captains message - *Belts on as a precaution*

My bias is bullish.

Probably the most important question a trader can ask himself: where does the market not want to go?

Yesterday sellers tried to initiate range expansion below the $6,555 low. They were fiercely rejected on solid volume and we quickly returned to the previous trading range. This is what Wyckoff called a "spring" and what Bollinger calls a "headfake." It's the fake-out before the market breaks out in the other direction. The market very clearly doesn't want to go down.

We might drop to the $6,700-$6,900 zone to test support first but on the bigger picture, I strongly prefer the bull case. Breaking $7,200 and then $7,466 will help confirm my theory that BTC (as well as the stock market) will keep uptrending through April, before a major bearish consolidation event prior to the halving.

This theory is invalidated if we break below yesterday's low ($6,456).

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Probably the most important question a trader can ask himself: where does the market not want to go?

The market very clearly doesn't want to go down.

Yes. My predictions look the same and I again believe in what i've posted here.

I'm bullish. [...]
[...]
My whale detector flashes red. We should test 6000-6400 and meanwhile we stay at 6800 - at perfect short/sell price. Market most often does not give you 2 days to open position in situation like this one.
[...]

I was faked by this dump and lost confidence:


But after yesterdays strong 1D green dildo I'm back in short term bull club (I'm always bullish for bitcoin in long term)

[Globb0]

Right then, left it another day. Lets see what is unfolding on the daily.



Disappointing so far following the up a bit signal, almost immediately looks like a reversal to down. Need to see where the next daily closes. Looks precarious.


Lets zoom in to the hourly view....




Could that be a flagpole formation? ie going up to the same height again?

At the same time its the doldrums, no volume idling along again. not exactly strong.