Lucius
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April 12, 2020, 02:23:08 PM |
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It's also quite interesting how he interprets the previous halvings, saying that 'nothing much' happened in the short-term and mid-term perspective. And thus he believes that this is the likeliest thing to happen this time.
Do you agree with him?
Looking at the first two halvings, it is very likely that nothing will change much after the third halving, and that it will have some effect on the price only next year or in Q4 2020. However, the current situation with a pandemic that has deeply shaken the world's largest economies should also be taken into account, because most countries have been in a technical recession before and with the current economic rescue measures a new major recession is at the door. This is a new situation, the question is how will Bitcoin fight for its position in the market at a time when millions are out of work, when food production is declining, climate change is destroying agriculture and the world is facing real challenges. |
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mk4
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April 13, 2020, 05:44:38 AM |
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Looking at the first two halvings, it is very likely that nothing will change much after the third halving, and that it will have some effect on the price only next year or in Q4 2020. However, the current situation with a pandemic that has deeply shaken the world's largest economies should also be taken into account, because most countries have been in a technical recession before and with the current economic rescue measures a new major recession is at the door.
Yeap, apparently some people are expecting that some people will be like " holy crap, Bitcoin's mining reward per block has been cut in half? I'm gonna buy!" or something. To a certain extent, the halving is priced in. Heck, I think that the price will drop in the short term after the halving because people will be like, " what? that was uneventful as hell, and the price didn't go up." It will take time for us to feel the positive effects of the halving. |
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Lucius
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April 13, 2020, 09:44:02 AM |
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mk4, some people don't even understand what halving is, and they actually take it as an event after which the price goes up to the Moon. But there are also media outlets that misinterpret the information, so some 2 months ago I read on one of my local portals that halving would actually cut the total BTC in half, and that the price will rise as a result of that. Of course, it's pure nonsense, but someone still reads it and believes it.
Halving is just one process that happens every 210,000 blocks, and which brings the total daily amount of mined coins 50% less than in the previous 4 years. If there is demand (and we see it exists), then only 900 new BTCs a day can play a significant role, especially for those who mine them.
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OcTradism
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April 13, 2020, 01:08:24 PM |
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Halvings have effects on bitcoin price but there are some earlier or later effects. Most important, halvings bring the word bitcoin become more popular on newspapers and social medias, globally, and months later the real effects of halving will be shown. People probably don't recognize the impacts of block reward decreases till months later, then when they realize that, they have to accept higher price to own bitcoin.
- Halvings: catch more attention > warm up > more popular
- Some long delayed discovery on deflation after halvings > accept higher price.
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bearexin
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April 13, 2020, 08:40:28 PM |
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For me he’s really making a lot of sense. The both points he made, I think they are right. When the Halving is done, a lot of miners are going to drop out when they notice that they are no longer making any profit from it. And as for the price, if you check out what happened in the last time, the increase didn’t happen within short term or mid term, it took some time before it started to go up.
The last halving of Bitcoin happened in 9th July 2016 and the price didn’t pump immediately, the bull run happened in 2017 and the price of Bitcoin reached its peak around December.
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NotFuzzyWarm
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April 13, 2020, 08:53:35 PM |
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I still don't believe that we are going to see bitcoin halved
It is not a matter of believing -- the halving is hard coded into the BTC algorithm and WILL occur every 210,000 blocks or roughly every 4 years. At the current global hash rate the next halving will occur sometime in May this year. While I am usually not a fan of Coindesk, they have a decent explanation of it here. |
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GDragon
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April 14, 2020, 02:42:05 AM |
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I realize it's just one person's opinion but I do have respect when it comes to this one, so maybe it's an interesting topic to discuss. Yesterday, he published a new video on his Youtube channel where he talks about halving. Here are some ideas I've circled out from the video. 1. Mining: The least efficient miners will face unprofitability because of the halving. Thus some miners are likely to turn off their equipment, leading to the drop of the difficulty rate, and mining remaining profitable to those who are still in the game. 2. BTC price: He calls making price predictions 'irresponsible', even comparing it to astrology. It's also quite interesting how he interprets the previous halvings, saying that 'nothing much' happened in the short-term and mid-term perspective. And thus he believes that this is the likeliest thing to happen this time. Do you agree with him? I read a lot of topics concluding that halving means price going up. But I think it is hard to conclude it that way. I personally believe that no one can really say what will be the effect of halving. So I guess that is why he call it "irresponsible", it is creating a mislead information for others. It is better if we avoid creating such assumptions. We should really consider a lot of aspect. The effect will take some time too, and no one would really know if the price will go up, or go down, specially this year with the virus affecting us all. PS. His opinion about the miners is natural too. |
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Betwrong
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May 03, 2020, 09:06:27 AM |
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Well, there isn't anything controversial said by Anto in the video to disagree. He just narrated the aftermath of halving and it is evident that mining will become unprofitable for certain weak miners due to reduction in rewards. Low numbers of miners = Lower difficulty, hence, mining will still be profitable for other miners.
Once difficulty is lowered mining can become profitable again for those who left the game right after the halving. I mean, not only some other miners can keep up mining with profit after the difficulty adjustment to the lowered hashrate, but the same miners who just left can join in once again, thus restoring the security to almost the same level. But what I like the most about this video is that he reminds us that "Keep in mind we have so much hash power increase over the last couple of years that even if 50% of the hash power was gone, we'd still end up somewhere where we were in 2018."
Which means that we shouldn't worry about Bitcoin network becoming less secure, even if the above mentioned "weak hands" will not return at all. |
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Velkro
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May 03, 2020, 11:46:26 AM |
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1. Mining: The least efficient miners will face unprofitability because of the halving. Thus some miners are likely to turn off their equipment, leading to the drop of the difficulty rate, and mining remaining profitable to those who are still in the game.
2. BTC price: He calls making price predictions 'irresponsible', even comparing it to astrology.
It's also quite interesting how he interprets the previous halvings, saying that 'nothing much' happened in the short-term and mid-term perspective. And thus he believes that this is the likeliest thing to happen this time.
Do you agree with him?
Its hard to not agree when he just points out past events, that are facts. Second, this is Andreas, most of people will agree with him because of that, and they are mostly correct  I agree also about miners, that how it works, not profitable? turn off equipment, every other miner will gain a bit by that also |
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buwaytress
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May 03, 2020, 01:18:37 PM |
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I'm not a big fan of much but these guy's videos always crack me a grin. I probably don't agree it's irresponsible to do price prediction, it's simply what a lot of people do, since price speculation really is the easiest thing to do, even easier than astrology too (and that takes some degree of study!).
I do think halving's purely psychological, but yeah it means little more than what the system's already meant for it to mean.
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Kakmakr
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May 03, 2020, 06:17:03 PM |
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Andreas is one of my favourite Bitcoin experts, so I value his opinion. We usually see a slight increase in the Bitcoin price, about a week or two prior to the actual event, because the hype in Social media gives Bitcoin some extra free publicity. The bump in the price soon stabilize or even drop a day or two after the event takes place, because speculators anticipate a slight drop in the price as the hype dies down, so they sell for a quick profit whilst the price is still high. So, if you want to buy and make a slight profit, you will have to buy a few weeks before the event to enable you to buy low.  |
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Wind_FURY
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May 04, 2020, 06:56:10 AM |
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Holy crap! TA purists and btc speculation fans just got BTFO by no other than Andreas  For those who didn't watch the video, he said: "prediction about the price is the same as astrology and reading tea leaves" Damn! All events, known in advanced, are priced in. The halving FOMO is priced in, the halving "mining-death-spiral therefore Bitcoin will crash" is also priced in. "saying things like the head-and-shoulders pattern that is declining through the 200MA indicates that blah blah blah is equivalent to saying the price will do this because Mercury is in ascendant in the constellation of virgo" Savage!! LOL On another note, I wonder if the "small time" miners would be open to moving their hardware to countries where electricity cost is cheap. If i'm not mistaken in most countries in central and south america electricity subsidies are very common. BUT Bitcoin never stayed under the 200-weekly SMA. Fact. |
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