Stimulus checks perfect storm for massive crypto bull run?

[fabiorem]

Not going to happen, as people are being prevented from working by the modern STATE, so they need the money to buy food and pay their rents. They are not going to put this money into a risky asset which falls 60% overnight.

[cafetools]

Some people who dont really need the money are the only candidates for investment i agree.

There are 3 things that are happening at the EXACT same time that could drive up the price:

1. Stimulus checks
2. Bitcoin halving reduction event
3. Corona virus lockdown being lifted soon

[Lucius]

And here you've touched an important aspect, current supply and demand.
What we know is that coins keep getting awarded at nearly the same speed (8% faster for this epoch but not that important) and that some assume those checks will drive up demand temporarily since CB posted that tweet.

These are all very sensitive issues, but it is difficult or almost impossible to come up with concrete data that could explain what is actually going on in the background. All crypto exchanges fake some % of their trading volumes, to attract as many traders as possible, of course displaying excellent liquidity. But luckily in a little less than a month, halving will reduce the mining prize, which is an indisputable fact. Still, the question is how much fresh mined coins have an impact on the market, current 1800 BTC per day is just $12 600 000, which is almost insignificant for the total amount of day trading (by CMC $37+ billion).

Oh, and till now, I've never heard of any country doing the same in the EU, free money for everybody, unconditionally.

I heard that Serbia is planning to do that, "100 EUR for each adult Serbian citizen", and it is possible that some other countries will do something similar. So if a plan with USA stimulus checks fails, we have a backup plan

[exstasie]

Oh, and till now, I've never heard of any country doing the same in the EU, free money for everybody, unconditionally.

I heard that Serbia is planning to do that, "100 EUR for each adult Serbian citizen", and it is possible that some other countries will do something similar. So if a plan with USA stimulus checks fails, we have a backup plan

Don't worry, I'm pretty sure there is yet another backup plan: a second round of stimulus checks in the US. When Is the Next Round of Stimulus Checks Going Out?

Trump: "We could very well do a second round of direct [payments]. It is absolutely under serious consideration."

There is even talk of a monthly stipend but that seems a little crazy. I could see another $1K-$2K check being sent directly to consumers though, since current modelling shows it won't be safe to even partially reopen most states until mid-May to mid-June.

Whether stimulus recipients will be buying BTC with it? Not sure, but if the markets take another big dive, stimulus checks definitely won't stop the BTC market from bleeding.

[thesmallgod]

Analysis also suggest a lot of united state folks are using their stimulus package to buy crypto via coinbase. Coin telegraph also report the same new. It seems everyone is waiting to take advantage of the halving and double their money in due cost. Hopefully the current trend in the price of bitcoin will proof this by 24th when people receive another stimulus package

[bitgolden]

If it is used for crypto purchases that could be correct but at the same time the stimulus checks were given out so people wouldn't starve to death, we are talking about 10+ million fired people right now during this pandemic and these companies cutting costs in form of firing people will eventually hire a lot of them back as well and just trying to both get a profit thanks to lesser costs and also they got a huge stimulus check as well which means these people who have been fired and using that money to buy stuff that they will need to survive will not think about crypto all that much.

At the end of the day this is a stimulus check and it should be used to stimulize the economy as well, buy from people who will use your money to buy from others and basically market will continue to churn.

[Lucius]

Don't worry, I'm pretty sure there is yet another backup plan: a second round of stimulus checks in the US. When Is the Next Round of Stimulus Checks Going Out?
Trump: "We could very well do a second round of direct [payments]. It is absolutely under serious consideration."

Good thing you posted the link, I almost didn't believe there were any plans to divide more money than already shared. While I don't mind helping people, especially those who need it most, I wonder how it will affect the US economy in the long run, given that they are not in an enviable financial situation. It seems to me like Trump is buying votes in the next presidential election with state money, because who after this will not vote for him?

One thing is for sure, those who print money and checks will certainly not lose their jobs, a lot of overtime is waiting for them.

[gleisson05]

Stimulus checks will definitely add to the eventual bull run but this is not the only reason for that.
People are getting disappointed in the global system and turning to crypto as something reliable.
I didn't manage to find decent statistics illustrating my thought but I know for sure that tons of nocoiners have come to crypto recently.

[exstasie]

Don't worry, I'm pretty sure there is yet another backup plan: a second round of stimulus checks in the US. When Is the Next Round of Stimulus Checks Going Out?
Trump: "We could very well do a second round of direct [payments]. It is absolutely under serious consideration."

Good thing you posted the link, I almost didn't believe there were any plans to divide more money than already shared. While I don't mind helping people, especially those who need it most, I wonder how it will affect the US economy in the long run, given that they are not in an enviable financial situation. It seems to me like Trump is buying votes in the next presidential election with state money, because who after this will not vote for him?

The Senate just passed another corona virus relief bill, extending small business payroll protections and hospital relief. It's widely expected the next relief bill after that will be much more comprehensive. I think it will probably include a second round of stimulus payments but nobody knows at this point. Senate Republicans are starting to push back on the amount of public spending.

Trump is now openly pushing for an oil bailout now too. Voters will hate him for that. So yes I think he's happy to sign off on direct stimulus payments as a quid quo pro to keep the public on his side. Give the masses a handout and they'll look the other way at the obvious crony capitalism.

[stompix]

Oh, and till now, I've never heard of any country doing the same in the EU, free money for everybody, unconditionally.

I heard that Serbia is planning to do that, "100 EUR for each adult Serbian citizen", and it is possible that some other countries will do something similar. So if a plan with USA stimulus checks fails, we have a backup plan

Well, they are not part of the EU and probably they will have to do all by themselves, but still, 100 euros per citizen?
They could have put some restrictions for the ones that really don't care about 100E and doubled the sum for the ones that really need that money. Even with their cheaper prices and obvious lower income than their neighbors, 100E still sounds like throwing bread crumbs.

It seems to me like Trump is buying votes in the next presidential election with state money, because who after this will not vote for him?

No, you're mistaken...he's just putting his name on the checks to make them look better!  

But it doesn't always work like that, fortunately for us.
There are some cases in which populist parties, even after throwing money at every social category have experienced disastrous results because of their lack of reforms and their dirty business, eastern Europe is like a breeding ground for such things.
Anyhow, it was about time the US learns what 101% populism and -1% real plans lead to, although I believe it's not going to be Trump the one in charge when the fallout from his agenda strat, somebody will be unlucky enough to win one 4 years holiday to CleantheMess Resort.

[el kaka22]

There definitely needs to be another one because people can't survive this with just 1200 dollars at all, they are basically over already and it just got here, during May month I am sure they will figure out something again, the trick is if they give it to companies as well they are not going to have that much money to begin with.

If you just give out to people we are talking about 200-300 billion dollars at most, when you give it to everyone it becomes over 2 trillion dollars, so if you only keep it at individuals only we are talking about 2 trillion dollars going for another 4 months or so at the very least, probably as long as 2021 as well but I doubt this will continue that much. However if you do it 2 trillion each time you can only do it one more time then it will become impossible to continue.

[cafetools]

BTC price did spike up to $7760! Wow, definitley a bullish sign that could generate more interest from potential investors. We need to get that FOMO vibe going that makes people think they need to invest in BTC NOW so they can make a bunch of money to help with bills etc. during this Covid-19 crisis.

[cafetools]

An author for Forbes used the words perfect storm in this article! Coincidence or did he read this thread lol?!?!?

-------

Bitcoin prices climbed nearly 8% in an hour today, rising in value as they were bolstered by a range of bullish factors.

The world’s most prominent digital currency was driven higher by “a perfect storm,” according to market analyst Denis Vinokourov.

“A combination of positive network fundamentals in the form of mining difficulty adjustment and a strong showing by the hashrate since correcting lower in March, together with technical price formation above 50DMA and aggressive stop loss hunting through $7,500, sent Bitcoin soaring all the way to $7,800 level,” said Vinokourov, head of research for London-based digital asset firm Bequant.

Other market observers agreed, noting that multiple price drivers helped fuel bitcoin’s gains.

[hatshepsut93]

Crypto news sites love to create a narrative for explaining the recent price movements, and most of the time they are entirely wrong. In the past it has often been some global instability or some economic news, today it's the stimulus checks. One thing in common is that these articles never provide any good evidence, it's always just a conjecture coming from the writer, there's no quality data or research to back any of it up, it's just talk.

[Reid]

Could this really be the reason into why we are looking at a bull run now.

I guess people in US are now calm about the Covid-19 pandemic if they could afford to use that stimulus check to buy bitcoin.
It might have been taking long for the virus to be cured but it is still there.
The panic is still outside with people buying more stuffs than what they really needed.

There may be exact amounts which cointelegraph says but it may be people who had been ready in this kind of situation only.

[aditasetia123]

BTC price did spike up to $7760! Wow, definitley a bullish sign that could generate more interest from potential investors. We need to get that FOMO vibe going that makes people think they need to invest in BTC NOW so they can make a bunch of money to help with bills etc. during this Covid-19 crisis.

its good sign for cryptocurrency market now while bitcoin price could hit $7760, and maybe halving moment and covid  19 crisis could be main triger why investors should put their money in bitcoin. but we should not overconfidence this is confirmed as bullish trend, i still see key resistance on around 8200 . if price failed to break it , i worry we will back to current low.

[Lucius]

Well, they are not part of the EU and probably they will have to do all by themselves, but still, 100 euros per citizen?

They are not yet EU members, but there is no doubt that in the coming years they will become, because it is a strategic interest of EU & USA in order to reduce Russia's influence in this part of Europe. As far as money is concerned, their allies Russia and China are giving everything they need at the moment, and from what I see in the news, pictures of the Chinese prime minister or president are everywhere in a sign of gratitude.

No, you're mistaken...he's just putting his name on the checks to make them look better!  

Regardless of how people react and whether it is a populist measure, I don't think Trump has a serious counter-candidate who can win the next presidential election. However, American political cuisine always surprises the world, it might be time to see the first US president from the Chinese minority, which would certainly contribute to better relations between China and the USA

Crypto news sites love to create a narrative for explaining the recent price movements, and most of the time they are entirely wrong.

Maybe it's time to start writing more about halving, because I think it has the biggest effect on the price increase (in the short term, of course). A lot of people don't understand halving at all and hope that the price will skyrocket and now may be the time to invest for quick profit. Considering the past 2 halving events this was not the case, but we are in a specific socio-economic situation, so no option should be ruled out.

[Kasabus]

BTC price did spike up to $7760! Wow, definitley a bullish sign that could generate more interest from potential investors. We need to get that FOMO vibe going that makes people think they need to invest in BTC NOW so they can make a bunch of money to help with bills etc. during this Covid-19 crisis.

I don't think investing right now is their first priority. Bull run may happen but it will never take place immediately right after this pandemic ends. Bitcoin halving is set on may but it might be a bit late  and it will only be possible once people are already done with spending their bitcoins or fiat for their own needs.