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Question: Where do you think Bitcoin prices belong right now?
$0-$0.50 USD
$0.50-$1.00 USD
$1.00-$1.50 USD
$1.50-$2.00 USD
$2.00-$2.50 USD
$2.50-$3.00 USD
$3.00-$3.50 USD
$3.50-$4.00 USD
$4.00-$5.00 USD
$5.00-$10.00 USD
$10.00-$15.00 USD
$15.00-$30.00 USD
$30.00+

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Author Topic: Where do Bitcoin prices belong?  (Read 1568 times)
Jonathan Ryan Owens
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November 21, 2011, 07:31:08 AM
 #21

So far we have 60% above current prices and 40% below. Very interesting results indeed.

Interesting divergence..

So people believe that bitcoin will be a better method of exchange at a higher price..



12 percent liked turtles..

Those are the unpredictable outliers. The mysterious ones.

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November 21, 2011, 09:21:38 AM
 #22

Mark my words,

if the network proves to be resilient to price manipulation, and constant daily attacks, Bitcoins will be worth well over $1,000 a pop.

This is all a big IF ! People can only mine at a loss for SO long. People signing off, only makes the chances for a 51% attack that much more likely.

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Jonathan Ryan Owens
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November 21, 2011, 09:30:42 AM
 #23

Mark my words,

if the network proves to be resilient to price manipulation, and constant daily attacks, Bitcoins will be worth well over $1,000 a pop.

This is all a big IF ! People can only mine at a loss for SO long. People signing off, only makes the chances for a 51% attack that much more likely.

I hear this claim a lot. I don't agree.

Reduced mining power will actually reduce a 51% attack risk. The biggest risk for a 51% is the big pools being hijacked, or colluding with one another to mount such an attack.

With cheaper, more powerful sha256 block mining devices (FPGA & Structured ASICs) coming online, a reduction in total network power from inefficient GPU mining provides the opportunity for many smaller pools and even individual mining efforts. Additionally, these devices won't be able to replace GPU mining all at once, because there are production and sourcing limits, so there will be a continued slow attrition of GPU miners, until the last one is squeezed out.

-Jonathan

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November 21, 2011, 10:00:17 AM
 #24

So far we have 60% above current prices and 40% below. Very interesting results indeed.

Interesting divergence..

So people believe that bitcoin will be a better method of exchange at a higher price..



Yes, exactly. Though I don't think 30+ is reasonable right now, it looks like some people are either extremely bullish or didn't factor in failure probability.

A functioning medium of exchange needs strong forces to balance swings on either side, preferably of a size up to USD 10M. A price of 2 USD is kind of low for that, since we only have less than 8M coins so far and one should expect half of them inaccessible due to hoarding, and a new market like this one is not perfectly liquid yet.

I voted 5-10. I know that sounds very very bullish, but hey, it's the speculation board. This is just based on the possibility that some small market starts using Bitcoin, which is not all that unlikely and might justify double-digits, so multiplying probability with outcome, I end up somewhere in between.
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