*** First Halving ***
1Y before $2.50
Halving $12 (~5X)
Peak $1200 (~100X)
*** Second Halving ***
1Y before $280
Halving $650 (~2.5X)
Peak $19300 (~29X)
*** Third Halving ***
1Y before ~$6500?
Halving ~$8,125 (~1.25X)
Peak ~$68,000 (~8.4X) near Dec 2021 ?
This is so arbitrary.
The halving is an arbitrary date so it isn't a useful factor for extrapolation. Compare 2013 and 2017 vs stock-to-flow:
We can see in 2013, the market front ran the increased stock-to-flow from the 2012 halving. In 2017, the exact opposite happened, with the market slowly lagging behind stock-to-flow at halving and going parabolic a year later.
Measuring from the halving date doesn't account for these differences. It's an attempt to take the "4-year cycle" completely literally, which I don't expect to work out.
