Japan has the worst debt-to-GDP ratio in the world. The Fed today is taking pages out of the Bank of Japan's book. Why would the yen become the dominant reserve currency?
The situation in Japan is different from those in other countries. There are two main reasons.
1. The interest rates are extremely low (usually in the 0.00%-0.25% range). This allows the government to borrow more and more money, unlike the case in other countries.
2. Most of the Japanese national debt is being held by its citizens.
The target Fed Funds Rate is 0%-0.25%. The Fed balance sheet also just grew by $3 trillion in the past few months, headed for $10 trillion total in short order.
The Japanese citizens are also some of the largest holders of national debt from other nations, especially the United States.
The context is falling confidence and value of the USD. How is owning US government debt a positive in this scenario?
And Japanese Yen is one of the very few currencies to have increased its value against the USD. 4-5 decades ago, the exchange rate was like ~350 JPY to 1 USD. Now this is 107 JPY to 1 USD. There is no other currency in the world, which has appreciated by this much against the USD.
First, that doesn't really address whether the JPY could become the dominant reserve currency.
Second, that was a direct result of two things:
- Specific US efforts at dollar devaluation in the early 70s, including ending the gold standard
- The signing of the Smithsonian Agreement in 1971, which fixed the USD-JPY exchange rate at ¥308 per $1
The price of JPY was kept artificially low during extreme dollar devaluation. This led to extreme imbalances in the forex market, which eventually led to a collapse of USDJPY when the currency peg was abandoned.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_yen#Undervalued_yen