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Author Topic: Europe’s economy is moving faster than US economy - Covid-19 effect!!!  (Read 474 times)
Febo
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August 02, 2020, 05:12:32 PM
 #41

Timeline: europe and asia were hit hard by the virus, before any confirmed cases were announced in the united states.

That is not true. Europe had epidemic a week or two before New York. China had two months before. Epidemic in Europe started at start of March. Mid March spread over all south Europe and at end of March was everywhere.
In California and Washington state epidemic happened at same time at start of March. In New York they did not cared much what is happening at start of March then at end of March got huge headaches.  

So virus got to USA and Europe at the same time. Some parts of USA ignored it. They did not test enough or at all. That made it spread and brought huge costs and there will be more costs to tackle epidemic in the future.
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August 02, 2020, 05:14:20 PM
 #42


Japan has the worst debt-to-GDP ratio in the world. The Fed today is taking pages out of the Bank of Japan's book. Why would the yen become the dominant reserve currency?

I think this is a good take on the Euro question:

Quote
There is no inherent reason why the euro could not become a credible alternative to the dollar for international payments and reserves. All the Europeans would need to do is replace their national sovereign debts with a single government bond market explicitly backed by the ECB and unconstrained by any fiscal rules. Until they are prepared to do that, however, Juncker’s ambition will remain nothing more than a dream.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-the-euro-wont-replace-the-dollar-1536945404


My bad. I confused the Yen and Yuan Lips sealed

What about now central banks increase their EUR reserves? The proportion of the dollar has been constantly dropping in the last decades. Of course it's still high, but it won't be sooner or later. While it was ~80% in the '70s it represents only ~50-60% nowadays.

Also many times Germany and Japan helped the USD to not seeing the US dollar depreciated, 30 or 40 years ago. Whitout that, maybe USD couldn't become what it is today.

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August 02, 2020, 08:57:09 PM
 #43

That was a pretty good news for the part of Europe. Their government really did a great job of having coordination with one another to make a quick response to be able to control the situation of handling the rate of infection in their place which now enables them to open up their business establishments after quite sometime of having lockdown. This was really a great result when two parties do coordinate with one another.

On the case of US, even though there are already cases reported, it seems like they have underestimated the outcome of having a rise on the inflation rate of the spread of virus which turns out to end up like this making them to be on top of the world having the most cases of covid-19. Also, it is a challenge for the government of US to manage its people for they do also have a big population and the people and government are not well coordinated for they have complains among sides which makes it a lot more difficult to control the situation on implementing health protocols to prevent the further spread of virus.

A big country like US having most number of cases is really expected to have a struggle on their economy because of what their situation is up into now. Good thing that Europe have responded fast on the cases they have making them be able to control the situation which leads them to faster recovery of the economy. Actually at this time, it doesn't matter how fast the economy of each country recover because the important thing is that they can be able to recover once the situation is under control. It doesn't matter on which goes first and last what matters the most is the sake of the people of each country more than anybody else.
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August 02, 2020, 09:45:21 PM
Merited by bryant.coleman (1)
 #44

Japan has the worst debt-to-GDP ratio in the world. The Fed today is taking pages out of the Bank of Japan's book. Why would the yen become the dominant reserve currency?

The situation in Japan is different from those in other countries. There are two main reasons.

1. The interest rates are extremely low (usually in the 0.00%-0.25% range). This allows the government to borrow more and more money, unlike the case in other countries.

2. Most of the Japanese national debt is being held by its citizens.

The target Fed Funds Rate is 0%-0.25%. The Fed balance sheet also just grew by $3 trillion in the past few months, headed for $10 trillion total in short order.

The Japanese citizens are also some of the largest holders of national debt from other nations, especially the United States.

The context is falling confidence and value of the USD. How is owning US government debt a positive in this scenario?

And Japanese Yen is one of the very few currencies to have increased its value against the USD. 4-5 decades ago, the exchange rate was like ~350 JPY to 1 USD. Now this is 107 JPY to 1 USD. There is no other currency in the world, which has appreciated by this much against the USD.

First, that doesn't really address whether the JPY could become the dominant reserve currency.

Second, that was a direct result of two things:

  • Specific US efforts at dollar devaluation in the early 70s, including ending the gold standard
  • The signing of the Smithsonian Agreement in 1971, which fixed the USD-JPY exchange rate at ¥308 per $1

The price of JPY was kept artificially low during extreme dollar devaluation. This led to extreme imbalances in the forex market, which eventually led to a collapse of USDJPY when the currency peg was abandoned.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_yen#Undervalued_yen

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August 03, 2020, 12:58:08 AM
 #45

Looking at the US economic sector and the US DXY index is on the red candle and currently have + 0.1% from yesterday. This is also almost the same when looking at the EXY quote although for the past few weeks the euro has gone very fast compared to $. the US economic sector is in trouble and forced to open pathways that increase their economic value but the impact is likely to be large namely the increase in co-19 impacts.

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August 03, 2020, 03:45:37 AM
 #46

First of all, I felt glad to hear that Europe's economy is recovering fastly after all they've been true. Cheers to their Government for handling this Crisis so well.
But, on the other hand, I don't think that US dollar can be replace by Euro..maybe USA now is quite struggling because of being on top of highest positive cases in the world but I guess, they will get through this. US economy will be soon recovered because I believe that USA has unlimited resources and it will be easy for USA Government to find some ways to recover. They will remain as the king of the world despite the highest cases of covid-19 now.
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