The Ending of Covid-19

[virasog]

According to the research by https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/ , Covid-19 has already reached the peak in most part of the world and soon it will reach its end.

97-96% end by May 31 in most part of the world.

[1713583394]

1713583394

[virasog]

[Source: https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/ ]

[Cnut237]

Covid-19 has already reached the peak

It may have peaked, depending on future responses.
The lockdowns across the world have in many societies reduced the 'R₀' value to below 1... which means that on average each infected person passes the virus on to less than 1 new person. This is how we control the exponential growth - by keeping R₀ below 1. What happens as the lockdowns end and societies begin to resume some approximation to 'normal' activity is that people come into contact with more people again. So there is the chance that R₀ rises again past 1 and we see a return to exponential growth, and a fresh outbreak. This is why strategies such as some form of physical distancing need to remain in place, and why masks etc are important, and why some form of automated contact tracing is a good idea (privacy concerns notwithstanding).

It may have peaked for the moment, but this isn't the end, we need to take great care to ensure that we don't get new peaks as this thing progresses. The only real solutions are a vaccine or else enough of the population has been infected and carries antibodies to make it very difficult for it to spread. It's not just a matter of time until CV-19 goes away by itself - it won't go away, it will remain, we just need to keep that R₀ <1.

[boyptc]

The flattening curve?

We are all hopeful for the ending of this crisis and I'm also hearing the news about the coronavac with the meaning of corona vaccine.

[semobo]

You cannot say covid 19 will end that much soon because most of the people re under lockdown so they are not immune to the virus yet, only we can say if everyone infected with corona and the one who survive from it will get the immune to attack the virus in the future.

[UserU]

It's funny when some countries are slowly relaxing the restrictions, but little do they know that'd cause some new clusters or spikes in cases.

[semobo]

It's funny when some countries are slowly relaxing the restrictions, but little do they know that'd cause some new clusters or spikes in cases.

But not every country can keep all their people under lockdown because they don't have much reserve to survive for too longer that is why they wanted to bring some cashflow with lot of restrictions.

[bitbollo]

According to current papers/peer reviewed works, without a vaccine/treatment for COVID19, we can see "resurgence in contagion as late as 2024".  


Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/24/science.abb5793

[Abstract It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 from time series data from the USA to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.]

[Zeehaxan]

It is such a relief to know that it has peaked and now it will slowly fade away but i think country wise it is a bit different, i hope and pray that by mid to last week of may it will literally drop to near zero as we have seen in China but i think we will still need to wear mask and avoid gatherings untill a proven vaccine or medicine is out.

[virasog]

It's funny when some countries are slowly relaxing the restrictions, but little do they know that'd cause some new clusters or spikes in cases.

Those who are relaxation the restrictions in the lockdown have no other option because people are dying there not because of the covid-19, but because of the hunger. The panic of being jobless is more fearful than the risk of being getting infected with covid-19. The world could not be put on hold or stop for a longer period of time.

[Naida_BR]

It is such a relief to know that it has peaked and now it will slowly fade away but i think country wise it is a bit different, i hope and pray that by mid to last week of may it will literally drop to near zero as we have seen in China but i think we will still need to wear mask and avoid gatherings untill a proven vaccine or medicine is out.

China has again problem with COVID-19 in another city - not in Wuhan.
We haven't reached the peak. At least for this period of time maybe we have. But in autumn we are going to see a new wave coming and as they weather is going to be colder we are going to see a bigger outbreak of this virus.

[UserU]

Those who are relaxation the restrictions in the lockdown have no other option because people are dying there not because of the covid-19, but because of the hunger. The panic of being jobless is more fearful than the risk of being getting infected with covid-19. The world could not be put on hold or stop for a longer period of time.

No choice. If the cases increase, then the lockdown would extend even further. Should flatten the curve first.

[BADecker]

Those who are relaxation the restrictions in the lockdown have no other option because people are dying there not because of the covid-19, but because of the hunger. The panic of being jobless is more fearful than the risk of being getting infected with covid-19. The world could not be put on hold or stop for a longer period of time.

No choice. If the cases increase, then the lockdown would extend even further. Should flatten the curve first.

But where is the point that the lockdowns cause the deaths? If people are locked down, they can't grow food. So, they starve. And food is only a part of it.

Fat people will be the last people alive if we have continued lockdowns.

[cheater detector]

I still doubt this prediction, it's not an easy to predict about this pandemic. The active and daily cases is still gain more from day to day. Only a few country like german, italy, china, korea etc has drop drastically, but not for many other countries. I really want to end this pandemic soon, but logically it's very hard because it spread everywhere easily.

[Artemis3]

It's funny when some countries are slowly relaxing the restrictions, but little do they know that'd cause some new clusters or spikes in cases.

But not every country can keep all their people under lockdown because they don't have much reserve to survive for too longer that is why they wanted to bring some cashflow with lot of restrictions.

And this is why its going to stay for as long as it takes for the vaccine to be made. Relax isolation, numbers bump, isolate again...

Rather than funny it is sad. Sending people out to work as sacrifice...

[CristianOff]

Imagine if there was a movie about your life and there is a cut-scene where you post
this topic here about the ending of covid-19

Do you think your life is:

• comedy
• action
• sci-fi
• documentary
• something else

Now based on your life's genre, we have different outcomes:

comedy
The next cut-scene is May 31 where covid-19 cases have doubled and recovery rate has halved like Bitcoin. Economy is dying
and there are no supplies.
It's funny because you HODL bitcoin before that and you now have a lot of money you can't spend.

action
The next cut-scene is May 31. The virus has evolved and is now transforming people in zombies. The world became
an unconstitutional anarchy and everyone is in survive mode. Your job to save the world depends on a trip to Area 51
where there is this hidden secret gun that when you shoot in the air it makes everyone virus-free. The problem? Everyone in
Area 51 is infected.

sci-fi
The situation is as bad as in the action movie. Your scientist friend Franz Archimedes informed you about his recent discovery of
time travelling machine. He needs some items/elements that can be found only in Moscow, Russia ; Wuhan, China ; Milan, Italy  and NYC, US.
You bring those elements back to him but the time travelling went wrong and you went in the future rather than the past. Bitcoin is at $10,000,000/BTC (adjusted for 2020 dollar)
The movie extends for like 4 - 5 hours.

documentary
Here we see mister virasog in his natural habitat. It's the mating period and he is looking for a girl but unfortunately can't find one. What he doesn't
know is that he is currently being watched by a dangerous hunter: the covid-19. Mister virasog however is not an easy prey. He was gifted by nature
with the ability of staying home and washing his hands very often.

[KiloFoxtrot]

I still doubt this prediction, it's not an easy to predict about this pandemic. The active and daily cases is still gain more from day to day. Only a few country like german, italy, china, korea etc has drop drastically, but not for many other countries. I really want to end this pandemic soon, but logically it's very hard because it spread everywhere easily.

It's a prediction only, of course, that's based on recent data so far. In reality, there's lots of information that's lacking and/or even lagging, including the testing of those suspected to have COVID-19 as well. Hopefully, this prediction model would be correct since a lot of lives are depending on these data, on how to proceed moving forward with their lives in general.

[kelawannaepa]

Waiting for the Covid-19 vaccine

How are vaccines made?
The most common way to make a vaccine involves using the virus antigen itself..

In any vaccine, the strain of virus that needs an immunisation must be identified before anything can be done. However, once the strain is identified, the antigen is isolated and either weakened or made inactive through a chemical process...

Virus proteins that are used to create vaccines are sometimes grown in cells that come from chicken embryos, or alternatively, they can be grown in a bioreactor like a Petri dish. This allows the antigens to grow in a controlled environment and be isolated from their host cells in order to create vaccinations.

When a virus is weakened or inactive, it can't reproduce in order to cause illness, but the body's immune system can still create antibodies to fight it off. That way, if you do come into contact with an active form of the virus, your body should be equipped to fight it before it makes you ill.

Vaccines in an outbreak
During unprecedented times, like the current coronavirus outbreak, vaccines must still go through the same process, but because the demand is higher a fast-tracked process is usually possible.

Right now, health professionals around the globe are racing against the clock to get a vaccine for this virus. However, the issue is that creating a vaccine takes time. However, the fact that all efforts from health professionals around the globe will be focused on getting a vaccine could quicken the process...

But in order to do this, scientists need to identify the exact strain of the virus causing the pandemic.

Before any vaccine can be produced, the exact strain causing the epidemic or pandemic must be identified and isolated, as with any other vaccine production..

Unfortunately, even in cases where an immunisation is desperately needed, it can take a long time to create one, and certain processes can only be accelerated so much before safety is compromised.

Any vaccine, including those made for a mass outbreak, are produced in the same ways. However, Moderna, the company behind one of the current vaccines being trialled for COVID-19, uses mRNA technology - a faster method than traditional vaccines.

Messenger RNA (mRNA) is a molecule found in cells which carries DNA codes from the nucleus to the cytoplasm, where a process called protein synthesis is carried out.

The DNA sequence of the virus is transcribed into mRNA, meaning that the actual antigen of the virus itself isn't included in the vaccine,. Despite that, it still contains everything that the body needs to create specific antibodies to fight off the virus.


Would be helpful
...... There are excerpts ..........

[boyptc]

It's funny when some countries are slowly relaxing the restrictions, but little do they know that'd cause some new clusters or spikes in cases.

They're relaxing and thinking that they can slow down the spread in their countries.

But I think they've learned the lesson from those countries that's accountable for their negligence with the reaction they've made to delay the spread.

[peter0425]

According to the research by https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/ , Covid-19 has already reached the peak in most part of the world and soon it will reach its end.

97-96% end by May 31 in most part of the world.

Even the world reached the Peak of this virus but if people on each country will not do the necessary actions preventing to have a second wave then for sure it will come again like what happen in other countries that first declares their safeties.

And also there are other cases that some patient that recovers from the virus are now happens that acquiring again for some reason that cannot be explained.

So basically there are other cases that may grow again if not treating right.

[michellee]

There is no prediction about when the Covid-19 will end because every country still trying to cured people from the virus. I wonder what will happen if the pandemic is not ended in this month. But I hope that people can still get their food and health.

We still need to be patient and still survive at this moment. Stay at home, stay safe, and stay healthy.

[sweetbet]

Just like the annual seasonal flu, Covid-19 will never end until a vaccine is found for it.

[greenlanternlight01]

According to the research by https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/ , Covid-19 has already reached the peak in most part of the world and soon it will reach its end.

97-96% end by May 31 in most part of the world.

This is definitely some positive news. And hopefully someone's gonna be able to invent the vaccine so we can all go back to our normal lives.

[BADecker]

Just like the annual seasonal flu, Covid-19 will never end until a vaccine is found for it.

But if a vaccine is found, not only will covin never end, but millions more of Covid-like diseases will pop up. Vaccination is a trick to make disease happen, so that the vaccine companies can make money.

[BADecker]

According to the research by https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/ , Covid-19 has already reached the peak in most part of the world and soon it will reach its end.

97-96% end by May 31 in most part of the world.

This is definitely some positive news. And hopefully someone's gonna be able to invent the vaccine so we can all go back to our normal lives.

This is a trick to prepare us for a resurgence later in the year... so that we will WANT vaccines, so that we will pay (one way or another) to have them, so that the vaccine companies will make money over a fake pandemic they are creating.

[romelitounknown]

Nice estimation graph, one thing to take note is that every country should continue its quarantine until there's zero infected, if not then there would be a high chances for the wave that is more dangerous than the first one.

[lienfaye]

The pandemic will end if the vaccine is already made and tested to cure those who became infected. If the vaccine is proven to be effective then thats the time to assume the virus will vanish asap.

But now we cant say how long this virus will stay because it depends on the cooperation of each of us and the the health team to find the vaccine.

[boyptc]

Just like the annual seasonal flu, Covid-19 will never end until a vaccine is found for it.

A lot of researchers, medical institutions, and scientists are working together to provide a vaccine for this virus. What makes me worried, yes, we can survive and overcome this virus.

But, what if another pandemic will come out of nowhere? 

I hope all the nations will be prepared if that time comes.

[peter0425]

The pandemic will end if the vaccine is already made and tested to cure those who became infected. If the vaccine is proven to be effective then thats the time to assume the virus will vanish asap.

Nope there is no vaccine on other country but they come to ended the virus,The answer for this is discipline mate the people must be in the right action so the spread will stop little by little.

But now we cant say how long this virus will stay because it depends on the cooperation of each of us and the the health team to find the vaccine.

at least before this year end also the Corona will be end,Hopefully ..

[ethereumhunter]

The pandemic will end if the vaccine is already made and tested to cure those who became infected. If the vaccine is proven to be effective then thats the time to assume the virus will vanish asap.

But now we cant say how long this virus will stay because it depends on the cooperation of each of us and the the health team to find the vaccine.

Meanwhile, the vaccine needs some time to be ready for infected people. The doctor needs to test the vaccine before giving to people. According to WHO, the vaccine can be found for more than 6 months after the pandemic starts.

We don't know how long the vaccine will be ready, but let's hope that it will not take too long.

[BADecker]

The pandemic will end if the vaccine is already made and tested to cure those who became infected. If the vaccine is proven to be effective then thats the time to assume the virus will vanish asap.

But now we cant say how long this virus will stay because it depends on the cooperation of each of us and the the health team to find the vaccine.

Meanwhile, the vaccine needs some time to be ready for infected people. The doctor needs to test the vaccine before giving to people. According to WHO, the vaccine can be found for more than 6 months after the pandemic starts.

We don't know how long the vaccine will be ready, but let's hope that it will not take too long.

In America, at least, by the time a years is gone - it will take that long to find and test a safe vaccine - Americans will long since have gone back to their freedom, and will have proven Covid to be a lie.

[KiloFoxtrot]

The pandemic will end if the vaccine is already made and tested to cure those who became infected. If the vaccine is proven to be effective then thats the time to assume the virus will vanish asap.

But now we cant say how long this virus will stay because it depends on the cooperation of each of us and the the health team to find the vaccine.

Meanwhile, the vaccine needs some time to be ready for infected people. The doctor needs to test the vaccine before giving to people. According to WHO, the vaccine can be found for more than 6 months after the pandemic starts.

We don't know how long the vaccine will be ready, but let's hope that it will not take too long.

In America, at least, by the time a years is gone - it will take that long to find and test a safe vaccine - Americans will long since have gone back to their freedom, and will have proven Covid to be a lie.

I also hope/wish/pray that COVID-19 is indeed just a lie. But until such time that it's proven otherwise, I will continue to err on the side of caution instead for the meantime.

[BADecker]

The pandemic will end if the vaccine is already made and tested to cure those who became infected. If the vaccine is proven to be effective then thats the time to assume the virus will vanish asap.

But now we cant say how long this virus will stay because it depends on the cooperation of each of us and the the health team to find the vaccine.

Meanwhile, the vaccine needs some time to be ready for infected people. The doctor needs to test the vaccine before giving to people. According to WHO, the vaccine can be found for more than 6 months after the pandemic starts.

We don't know how long the vaccine will be ready, but let's hope that it will not take too long.

In America, at least, by the time a years is gone - it will take that long to find and test a safe vaccine - Americans will long since have gone back to their freedom, and will have proven Covid to be a lie.

I also hope/wish/pray that COVID-19 is indeed just a lie. But until such time that it's proven otherwise, I will continue to err on the side of caution instead for the meantime.

Caution is good. But remember, if nobody harvests the crop because they are all in lockdown, everybody starves.

Covid might look like the problem now, but it is only the tip of the iceberg if the economy shuts down too long.

What we really need is to determine how to err on the side of caution.

[ethereumhunter]

The pandemic will end if the vaccine is already made and tested to cure those who became infected. If the vaccine is proven to be effective then thats the time to assume the virus will vanish asap.

But now we cant say how long this virus will stay because it depends on the cooperation of each of us and the the health team to find the vaccine.

Meanwhile, the vaccine needs some time to be ready for infected people. The doctor needs to test the vaccine before giving to people. According to WHO, the vaccine can be found for more than 6 months after the pandemic starts.

We don't know how long the vaccine will be ready, but let's hope that it will not take too long.

In America, at least, by the time a years is gone - it will take that long to find and test a safe vaccine - Americans will long since have gone back to their freedom, and will have proven Covid to be a lie.

According to WHO, the vaccine can be found in 8 months, that can be less or more than that months. But unfortunately, I lost the sources 
But according to this news https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-timeline.html, the vaccine could take 12 to 18 months to develop, test and approve for public use.

But so far, WHO officials say at least 20 vaccines are in the development, here is the news :

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/who-officials-say-at-least-20-coronavirus-vaccines-are-in-development-in-global-race-for-cure.html

Here is another news telling about how long the vaccine become available :

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51665497

[seoincorporation]

So, a virus who takes 1 month to cover all the globe will just disappear at the end of the year...

The virus will evolve and will kill people for the next years, even if we find a cure it will ve a crazy race, Cure VS Mutation, what would be faster?

[BADecker]

So, a virus who takes 1 month to cover all the globe will just disappear at the end of the year...

The virus will evolve and will kill people for the next years, even if we find a cure it will ve a crazy race, Cure VS Mutation, what would be faster?

But...

What is the virus that has covered the globe in 1 month? It isn't Covid. Rather, it is a bunch of false advertising that Covid is dangerous.

They lied to you. Most of the covid talk is lies. So-called Covid deaths are from a host of other things. Or can you prove it?

They are playing you, son.


The Second Wave is Here…But It's Not A Virus

It's also a reason officials, aided by panicked corporate media headlines, put facts and data aside to target states that have chosen to reopen. The narrative being spun is to cast them as irresponsible and ignorant.

Not much reporting about Germany, however, where no evidence of a second wave has emerged after its lockdown began to lift, according to The Telegraph. German Chancellor Angela Merkel made a surprise announcement that playgrounds, zoos and museums would be allowed to reopen as government figures showed no evidence of a second wave.

After Merkel's announcement, the reproduction number, or "R" (how many people an infected person passes the virus) rose above government targets to 1.0 last Monday, after dropping for weeks. A fear-driven corporate media and some health officials seized the information of evidence of a second wave.

But not so fast…

The Telegraph writes:

"The rise was little more than a statistical blip within normal fluctuation rates, according to Prof Lothar Wieler of Germany's Robert Koch Institute (RKI)…As if in confirmation, on Wednesday the R number fell to 0.75 —  its lowest level in more than a week — and it is now at 0.76."

Despite all the good news and favorable indicators, some U.S. governors are doubling down on their stay-at-home orders. This is testing the patience of The People as government leaders suggest a shutdown that will extend into late May, June, July and in some states, indefinitely.

In mid April, peaceful protests begin popping up in cities across America. There was escalating anger at the extended lockdowns and authoritarian policies of state governors. Plus crippling unemployment numbers – over 30 million jobless as of this week. The protests experienced a brief respite in anticipation, as shelter-in-place—what U.S. Attorney General William Barr called "disturbing close to house arrest" —order expirations approached.

Texas, Idaho, Alabama and Georgia allowed their stay-at-home orders to expire on April 30 against a headwind of corporate media venom. South Carolina, Florida, Kansas, Missouri announced they would be allowing orders to expire this week [Monday]. Several other states moved into a 'Safer-at-Home' phase which is essentially a relaxed version of the stay-at-home orders.

Then there were some states that didn't. Thus it turned out America's second wave came not from a virus, but in the form of larger public protests. 

California protests exploded in the face of an obviously humiliated Gov. Newsom who, in a petulant move many are calling an overreach, closed Orange County state parks and beaches due to heavily publicized overcrowding.

But every action earns a reaction. Police estimate that between 2,500 and 3,000 people gathered near the popular pier in Huntington Beach on Friday to protest the decision. Police on horseback created a perimeter to contain the crowd

In response, the city council of Huntington Beach has voted to mount a legal challenge against embattled and increasingly angry Gov. Newsom, and the city of Dana Point is pursuing a temporary restraining order against both the vaccine-pushing governor and the state.

Simultaneously, at the state capital in Sacramento, another brushfire of protest broke out: 32 people arrested.

After launching the largest initial protest at Michigan state capital in Lansing against draconian Gov. Gretchen Whitmer weeks ago, state residents mirrored California's pushback in a second go round of protests. On Friday, the governor signed another executive order, terminating the old state of emergency and replacing it with a new one lasting through May 28.

President Trump, who tweeted 'LIBERATE MICHIGAN!' during its first round of mid-April protests again:

...

[BADecker]

Uhhh looks like we're on the peak of the curve for most countries, so it's a bit premature.

Also, you think governments are going to pass up on a chance to be authoritarian? Fat chance

You got it, man.


No Fear, No Mask and No Helmet, Either

And much to regain.

The Mask Mandate – gradually congealing here, already imposed there – is a mandate too far. Bad enough to be denied the freedom to do as you like inside your own damn car, when the doing harms no other person. And the same when on your bike, when he doing harms the person on the bike – who is denied the freedom to feel the sun on his face and the wind in his hair as well as forced to have his visual range diminished and his auditory range all-but-eliminated by an edict that he must wear a got-damned helmet or else because some control freaks are "concerned" that if he wrecks, he might get hurt.

It doesn't matter that he is arguably more likely to wreck – because of the vision-limiting helmet, which makes it harder to see things coming at the rider from the side without turning his head to look – at which point, his eyes are no longer on the road ahead.

But the point isn't even that.

It does not matter whether wearing a helmet is "safer." It may be wildly unsafe. So?

What matters – all you Karens and Kevins reading these words – is that it is not your business to impose your "concerns" about saaaaaaaaafety on other people.

[greenlanternlight01]

According to the research by https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/ , Covid-19 has already reached the peak in most part of the world and soon it will reach its end.

97-96% end by May 31 in most part of the world.

Good graph for estimation, however, one important thing to point out is that every country should continue its quarantine until further notice by its government, if not, then there would be what they call a second wave globally which we all wanted to avoid

[ethereumhunter]

We see the situations in many countries can be controlled, and many countries have lifted the lockdown. But don't forget, if people can not take care of their health, and they don't follow the protocol from the government, I am afraid that we will soon see the second wave of Covid-19, and if that happens, we will see an explosion of the number people who will get infected. It is not an easy matter because I see that people now feel that after the lockdown is open, they can go anywhere they want, but they don't use the suggestion from the government. For example, some people are not wearing the mask, and they still swarm in public areas without any social distancing, people gather in the cafe without having distance each other. The government reminds them, but still, more people don't obey the government.

So I don't think the Covid-19 will end so soon if people don't obey what the government suggested. We must obey the rule strictly so at least, we can prevent the spreads in ourselves and our family.

[@SumiaShayna57]

What is needed to deal with coronavirus infection is to reduce the number of infections as much as possible so that hospitals do not become overcrowded. If all countries strictly adhere to the lockdown, and if we adhere to all the widely publicized health regulations, then perhaps the corona outbreak can be brought under control. And if the medicine is already out, made available to everyone, then there is no point.

[sinazizi]

I wish it was true and it was ended may 31!