Bitcoin in time of halving - a brief review.

[SpanishSoldier]

Historically, ATH happens one year after halving.

To be specific, 2013 ATH came 368 days after halving in 2012. 2017 ATH came 525 days after halving in 2016.

So, if the trend continues, next ATH will be in 2022.

Every trend becomes broken sooner or later, otherwise the price would be too predictable. I'd say it already happened year ago, when the price went from 3k to 14k without any real reason. So I totally expect that this time it will be somehow different - maybe new ATH will come sooner than expected or won't come at all, maybe there will be a bearish market, or maybe a big bull run will start in just next few days. Either way, Bitcoin was always doing something unexpected, and right now everyone expect a repetition of 2016-2017.

Big money or institutional money generally follows a pattern and without them the next ATH is unattainable.

[mk4]

"Law of supply and demand" is a thing, but what you are calling "supply" is not supply. It is production.There is no law of production and demand. You can twist meanings by calling it "new supply" or "supply of new coins", but in the end it is not supply.

The number of bitcoins (also called "supply", unfortunately) is constantly increasing toward 21 million, and the halvings slow down the increase. As the number of bitcoins increases, the bitcoins available for sale, the "supply", also increases. Since the number of bitcoins is always increasing, so is the supply.

Regardless what you could call it, the main point is that the production per block is cut in half. While the supply is still going to increase as it should, it's going to increase significantly slower after the halving hence I think using the "supply and demand" argument is valid in this case. But yea, we won't feel the effects immediately. It's going to take a good number of months.

[wozzek23]

I think there is something else that people are not understanding; there is no way that we can be sure that the same thing that happened in the past years will be repeating this time around. There are lots of people that I'm seeing that are buying bitcoin just because of the Halving. They believe that the price will increase immediately after the halving and they will cash out, these are the people that will likely be disappointed.

What if after the halving and the price doesn't go up? What if the price takes one more year after the halving before increasing? Anyone who is buying Bitcoin shouldn't be doing it because of the bull run. Just buy Bitcoin, but buy at the right time and simply hold and don't expect much to happen. If you are hoping on the bull run, it might not come when you expect and that's it. So let's do it because of the passion we have and not for money.