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Author Topic: The Halvings impact on Bitcoins price  (Read 1240 times)
Naida_BR
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May 21, 2020, 04:30:04 PM
 #61

Do I get it right that we have no significant impact of halving? It was predictable. Well, I'm glad that the crypto market has become older and we have more sustainable financial model than previously.

The market and the community has become more prudent as it seems.
I think that the impact of halving is not going to be shown so fast. We are going to see the real impacts somewhere around 6 months later than that. The bad thing is that it will not going to be connected with halving and we will not be able to understand if the volatility came from this event.
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May 21, 2020, 05:53:58 PM
 #62

It's interesting because the bitcoin price now is going down. It seems the price cannot stay at a price now. I am waiting a good moment to buy more bitcoin at below than $9k if the price goes down into that price. But I hope that the price will not go down $9k because that can make people become panic, and that can make the price will go down deeper.

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May 21, 2020, 08:49:24 PM
 #63

There's no pattern.

After the first halving it rose exponentially for 4 months from $12 all the way up to $266, a level previously only dreamed of.

After the second halving it took a steep drop from $660 down to under $470 in about 3 weeks.



It's gone down after the first. It has each time. I didn't write this article as a "look at the chart" prediction. The halving has short term negative effects with miners, which was the start of my price prediction. I also never made any fixed price predictions because that is gonna be near impossible to pinpoint. We'll see a price drop that will go below $8300 before the end of the year. And if I'm wrong, then cool I lose out on money. And if I'm right, I make money and you guys lose money.

That's what a free market does Smiley

Gone down after the first? That's a stretch.

As I pointed out it rose almost continuously in a lovely exponential curve from $12 at halving to $266 at the peak of the bubble in April 2013. It barely twitched with the hard fork on March 11, 2013.

When the bubble burst it had nothing to do with miners. MtGox was overwhelmed and crashed, accompanied by a series of ddos attacks. Of course it was also vastly overbought and overdue for a massive correction, just as it was in December 2013 and again in December 2017.

Even after the April 2013 collapse, the price never went below $50, which was over 4x the price at halving. To say it went down is ridiculous.
_____

Maybe the price will go down below $8300 before year's end. It fell by a larger percentage in 2016. If it does it probably will have nothing to do miners. Miners mine, network hash rates go up and down, difficulties get adjusted, and blocks are added to the chain approximately every 10 minutes. The price of Bitcoin is not determined by miners. It is determined by supply and demand in the marketplace and the daily supply of new coins just got cut in half. As adoption continues to grow, demand will continue to grow. The price will follow.

That's indeed what a free market does.  Cool

As for "us guys" losing money, speaking for myself, that's impossible. I've already taken out several times the amount of fiat that I put in and still have a nice nest egg with which to live happily ever after.
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May 21, 2020, 09:09:34 PM
 #64

By now we know that this halving was not similar to the others... BTC is just floating around the same prices trying to grab some external investment that doesn't seem to be pouring in... I think that if the billions of USD don't come in, the price will eventually fall...
We also have to think about the expectation of the several new national digital currencies that are being prepared as this definitely lowers BTC importance

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dominos
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May 22, 2020, 12:44:22 PM
 #65

It's interesting because the bitcoin price now is going down. It seems the price cannot stay at a price now. I am waiting a good moment to buy more bitcoin at below than $9k if the price goes down into that price. But I hope that the price will not go down $9k because that can make people become panic, and that can make the price will go down deeper.

I get your point, but going down to $9k or even $8,5k yes, it is a big drop in terms on BTC price in short period of time, but it's not a level to cause a panic from people and bigger sellout. I think $8k level is more important.
Don't worry some correction is healthy in a bigger scale picture of BTCUSD price.
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May 22, 2020, 02:10:04 PM
 #66

It's interesting because the bitcoin price now is going down. It seems the price cannot stay at a price now. I am waiting a good moment to buy more bitcoin at below than $9k if the price goes down into that price. But I hope that the price will not go down $9k because that can make people become panic, and that can make the price will go down deeper.

I get your point, but going down to $9k or even $8,5k yes, it is a big drop in terms on BTC price in short period of time, but it's not a level to cause a panic from people and bigger sellout. I think $8k level is more important.
Don't worry some correction is healthy in a bigger scale picture of BTCUSD price.

Bitcoin already reaches below than $9k, but now the price is going to strong so we can hope that the price can go up again. Even though the price still can go down, but we should be an optimist to see the bitcoin price will reach the highest price again someday. If the price is still at a price now, I think we don't have to regret because we have more chance to buy bitcoin at a price now so we can sell at the higher price when the price increase.

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May 23, 2020, 12:21:25 PM
 #67

It's interesting because the bitcoin price now is going down. It seems the price cannot stay at a price now. I am waiting a good moment to buy more bitcoin at below than $9k if the price goes down into that price. But I hope that the price will not go down $9k because that can make people become panic, and that can make the price will go down deeper.

I get your point, but going down to $9k or even $8,5k yes, it is a big drop in terms on BTC price in short period of time, but it's not a level to cause a panic from people and bigger sellout. I think $8k level is more important.
Don't worry some correction is healthy in a bigger scale picture of BTCUSD price.

Bitcoin already reaches below than $9k, but now the price is going to strong so we can hope that the price can go up again. Even though the price still can go down, but we should be an optimist to see the bitcoin price will reach the highest price again someday. If the price is still at a price now, I think we don't have to regret because we have more chance to buy bitcoin at a price now so we can sell at the higher price when the price increase.

It doesn't have anything with an investor being optimistic or pessimistic because this emotions are generated by the market price action itself.
I would be more looking, which is really interesting if there is going to be a major shift in bitcoin dominance in terms of altcoin gaining more of it, because this will lead to more risk taking and more positive price action in longer term for the whole market.
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May 23, 2020, 03:13:20 PM
 #68

Bitcoin already reaches below than $9k, but now the price is going to strong so we can hope that the price can go up again. Even though the price still can go down, but we should be an optimist to see the bitcoin price will reach the highest price again someday. If the price is still at a price now, I think we don't have to regret because we have more chance to buy bitcoin at a price now so we can sell at the higher price when the price increase.

It doesn't have anything with an investor being optimistic or pessimistic because this emotions are generated by the market price action itself.
I would be more looking, which is really interesting if there is going to be a major shift in bitcoin dominance in terms of altcoin gaining more of it, because this will lead to more risk taking and more positive price action in longer term for the whole market.

So he needs to control his emotion, especially if he watches the market, and don't let his emotion interfere. It isn't easy but with some practice and keep doing it, and I am sure that he can do that. I think bitcoin price now becomes sideways because I see the market does not move too much, but we need to be cautious in the next week because everything can happen at the market.

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May 23, 2020, 03:23:03 PM
 #69

It looks like a fairly large difficulty drop is coming, currently estimated as between -17.6856% and -7.4388% by diff.cryptothis.com. Miners are not having an easy time for the moment.

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May 23, 2020, 10:58:52 PM
 #70

It looks like a fairly large difficulty drop is coming, currently estimated as between -17.6856% and -7.4388% by diff.cryptothis.com. Miners are not having an easy time for the moment.
Its somehow anticipated where we do know that block rewards had been cut in half which basically means that it would really be a big pain in the ass
to miners.So it isn't really that shocking that most of them will turn off their rigs and wont continue because its just normal for you to
stop when you do look that you aren't feasible already.

It's interesting because the bitcoin price now is going down. It seems the price cannot stay at a price now. I am waiting a good moment to buy more bitcoin at below than $9k if the price goes down into that price. But I hope that the price will not go down $9k because that can make people become panic, and that can make the price will go down deeper.
Going back down in 8k price wont really make a panic but I do rather believe that if the community would able to see a crash like scenario
where a big red candle neither on hourly TF shown or less then I would say that kind of feeling comes out but actually its hard to predict
on what would be the next possible moves of btc.

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May 31, 2020, 02:44:53 PM
 #71

How do you think Bitcoins price will be impacted by the Halving in 2020?
Halving is over and Bitcoin has not changed at this time, in terms of price, but from year to year after halving occurs it has a very positive impact on the price of bitcoin, for example, 2017 has passed.

I'm sure everything needs a process to achieve success and peak, for now bitcoin is only halfway left, so, the habit if something is needed is increasingly scarce, the price will skyrocket, it might happen to Bitcoin and other cryptos, just the time might not be right yet.

In essence, Bitcoin can be said to include futures investment assets, however, if you believe that Bitcoin has a positive impact in the future continue to invest.

R


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May 31, 2020, 11:08:15 PM
 #72

How do you think Bitcoins price will be impacted by the Halving in 2020?
Halving is over and Bitcoin has not changed at this time, in terms of price, but from year to year after halving occurs it has a very positive impact on the price of bitcoin, for example, 2017 has passed.

I'm sure everything needs a process to achieve success and peak, for now bitcoin is only halfway left, so, the habit if something is needed is increasingly scarce, the price will skyrocket, it might happen to Bitcoin and other cryptos, just the time might not be right yet.

In essence, Bitcoin can be said to include futures investment assets, however, if you believe that Bitcoin has a positive impact in the future continue to invest.
In view of history, halving has indeed given positive results in the near future, with prices continuing to soar, but this time bitcoin is still held below $10k from before halving happened and now it's gone.

It is true that bitcoin is investing in futures, but I am also here as a bitcoin holder and will continue to invest for the future and we will likely see the real price.

Although now it's hard to redeem 10k but I'm sure it can be easily past when the bullish comes.

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June 01, 2020, 02:52:16 AM
 #73

Halving is over and Bitcoin has not changed at this time, in terms of price, but from year to year after halving occurs it has a very positive impact on the price of bitcoin, for example, 2017 has passed.

bitcoin price did change a lot before halving like the previous two times but the situation was not at all similar since we had the COVID19 worldwide economy crash that also impacted bitcoin and we also had to recover from that.
now that we are after-halving things are back to normal again, you can't expect price to shoot up for no reason. after all bitcoin is not a pump and dump altcoin!

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June 01, 2020, 10:02:53 AM
 #74

Halving is over and Bitcoin has not changed at this time, in terms of price, but from year to year after halving occurs it has a very positive impact on the price of bitcoin, for example, 2017 has passed.

bitcoin price did change a lot before halving like the previous two times but the situation was not at all similar since we had the COVID19 worldwide economy crash that also impacted bitcoin and we also had to recover from that.

We might be fully recover when vaccines is already available for public use. They are still making a lot of clinical trials, and we'll be expecting the vaccine to come out early next year. So, If we're to follow the halving trend, next year would be a perfect timing for Bitcoin to make a good run while the traditional market recover upon the clearing of the virus as well. These price changes that we're experiencing today doesn't really matter once the post halving priced in.


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June 01, 2020, 02:02:57 PM
 #75

Halving will indeed make changes to Bitcoin, of course, is the price, the price of Bitcoin will be in the spotlight, because in Halving 1 and 2 the price of Bitcoin rises after halving is finished, and halving 3 will likely be repeated
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June 01, 2020, 04:10:23 PM
 #76

Halving will indeed make changes to Bitcoin, of course, is the price, the price of Bitcoin will be in the spotlight, because in Halving 1 and 2 the price of Bitcoin rises after halving is finished, and halving 3 will likely be repeated
For the time being we need time to see bitcoin move because in this month bitcoin is not able to touch $ 10k if this is indeed market control by the pope so it is difficult to get up after halving is over.

But this possibility could happen in a few months maybe also because of the Covid-19 effect that affected the crypto market.

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June 01, 2020, 04:31:49 PM
 #77

It's interesting because the bitcoin price now is going down. It seems the price cannot stay at a price now. I am waiting a good moment to buy more bitcoin at below than $9k if the price goes down into that price. But I hope that the price will not go down $9k because that can make people become panic, and that can make the price will go down deeper.
But a lower price would mean more bitcoins for you at a lower price, so it will be a good opportunity for buying more coins.
According to me the price can go down if the bitcoin price doesn't cross the $10k mark in a few days and if the price dumps then it can create a dump phase which can easily clear all the profits made in the past year and we can see the bitcoin back in $5k range. But personally I don't want to see a dump and I am only interested in watching the price to at least touch $20k again.

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June 01, 2020, 06:09:02 PM
 #78

Halving is over and Bitcoin has not changed at this time, in terms of price, but from year to year after halving occurs it has a very positive impact on the price of bitcoin, for example, 2017 has passed.

bitcoin price did change a lot before halving like the previous two times but the situation was not at all similar since we had the COVID19 worldwide economy crash that also impacted bitcoin and we also had to recover from that.

We might be fully recover when vaccines is already available for public use. They are still making a lot of clinical trials, and we'll be expecting the vaccine to come out early next year. So, If we're to follow the halving trend, next year would be a perfect timing for Bitcoin to make a good run while the traditional market recover upon the clearing of the virus as well. These price changes that we're experiencing today doesn't really matter once the post halving priced in.

Until the vaccine is being made we will be in danger of total economic collapse. In danger. Not that it will happen for sure. Just a threat. And threat is what moves price of Bitcoin most. I simply dont see 2020 as even semi bullish year. It will be similar as 2019 or even worse. Lets hope for the best in 2021.
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June 01, 2020, 07:13:43 PM
 #79

Bitcoin did changed for the halving, it just happened before hand and not after. The price was around 7k at the start of the year and peaked over 10k, right now it is over 9k and that is still a good increase, we are talking about almost a 30% increase which rarely you see in investments. It did dropped in between because of the pandemic but it recovered thankfully. Those increases could be attributed to halving, especially when it dropped so much because of the pandemic, it was around 5-6 thousand dollars for a while, but right before the halving the price went up once again above 9k levels which is more like a 50% increase almost.

So at the end of the day, the price went up and that was because of halving, it doesn't have to increase afterwards for it to be halving related, it went up before and that's enough.
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June 01, 2020, 07:33:44 PM
 #80

If you want instant bitcoin bull market then you are thinking wrong. Because now that situation, this kind of situation was not the time of the previous two halving. The world economy is getting worse day by day people are losing jobs so how do you expect people to be interested in investing now. The bull market will not come without retail investors. You may have seen usdt printing and injecting in the market, there are only a few behind it. Everything takes time, I am hopeful Bitcoin will start the real run again very soon, when we get out of this situation.

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