Gyfts
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 2856
Merit: 1519
|
 |
May 20, 2020, 10:20:32 PM |
|
There is a deadly virus which we've both acknowledged exists. The government aims to maximize tax revenue to pay their salaries, compete in the global pissing contest that is, who has the highest GDPs/wealthiest countries etc. External medical personnel (in every country) said oh damn look at this virus, its bad, it'll cause X people to die and Y people to get sick. Internal government medical agencies see that information and go, yup that is right it looks like X people will die and Y people will get sick, here is what we should do (social distancing/shutdowns/masks). Trump administration that is not medical personnel says ok, we need to weigh X people dying and Y people getting sick with the economic damage that will be caused from the suggested measures. They get their wizards to model various scenarios and say, yup if we do this for this long, we'll lose $Z. So you compare the $ in X, Y, and Z and make a policy to minimize all three of those things.
This is the most logical approach because a public policy maker's job is to reasonably outweigh risks and balance them with the greater good. But considering US politics is an utter shit show, I've seen people try to make the argument that every life counts and that it's not worth reopening the economy because "people may die". We have the data and it's clear that it points to a reopening, but because grandma might die, this apparently means healthy 25 year olds can't work. |
|
|
|
|
squatz1 (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1285
Flying Hellfish is a Commie
|
|
May 21, 2020, 12:00:47 AM |
|
There is a deadly virus which we've both acknowledged exists. The government aims to maximize tax revenue to pay their salaries, compete in the global pissing contest that is, who has the highest GDPs/wealthiest countries etc. External medical personnel (in every country) said oh damn look at this virus, its bad, it'll cause X people to die and Y people to get sick. Internal government medical agencies see that information and go, yup that is right it looks like X people will die and Y people will get sick, here is what we should do (social distancing/shutdowns/masks). Trump administration that is not medical personnel says ok, we need to weigh X people dying and Y people getting sick with the economic damage that will be caused from the suggested measures. They get their wizards to model various scenarios and say, yup if we do this for this long, we'll lose $Z. So you compare the $ in X, Y, and Z and make a policy to minimize all three of those things.
This is the most logical approach because a public policy maker's job is to reasonably outweigh risks and balance them with the greater good. But considering US politics is an utter shit show, I've seen people try to make the argument that every life counts and that it's not worth reopening the economy because "people may die". We have the data and it's clear that it points to a reopening, but because grandma might die, this apparently means healthy 25 year olds can't work. That's the hard thing to balance here, you have to strike a balance between public health risk and the reward of eyeopening the economy. Neither side of the aisle is going to want the economy to die, no one wants that to happen, but the parties have a bit of a different take on how they want to go about things and that's okay. I think that at the end of the day we should follow scientific metrics in how we're going to open the country -- as a country we should follow something like NY in how we're going to open - https://forward.ny.gov/regional-monitoring-dashboard - take a look here and this will show you. NY (and I think NJ too) is following a metric based system in how they're going to open different parts of the state if they're able to pass different metrics that experts have agreed on. |
|
|
|
Spendulus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2926
Merit: 1386
|
|
May 21, 2020, 12:28:44 PM |
|
.... I think that at the end of the day we should follow scientific metrics in how we're going to open the country -- as a country we should follow something like NY in how we're going to open - https://forward.ny.gov/regional-monitoring-dashboard - take a look here and this will show you. NY (and I think NJ too) is following a metric based system in how they're going to open different parts of the state if they're able to pass different metrics that experts have agreed on. Then let NY and NJ pay their own unemployment and welfare costs for those remaining unemployed by their metrics that their experts have agreed on in their infinite wisdom. Those of us in the other parts of the country don't want to support and pay for that. We don't want to bail out their social democracy experiment in corruption, or their government employees bankrupt pension plan, or any other part of their mess. |
|
|
|
|
SaltySpitoon
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2590
Merit: 2156
Welcome to the SaltySpitoon, how Tough are ya?
|
|
May 21, 2020, 04:14:51 PM |
|
Then let NY and NJ pay their own unemployment and welfare costs for those remaining unemployed by their metrics that their experts have agreed on in their infinite wisdom.
Those of us in the other parts of the country don't want to support and pay for that.
We don't want to bail out their social democracy experiment in corruption, or their government employees bankrupt pension plan, or any other part of their mess.
Unemployment benefits come from money withheld from an individual's paycheck. About 6% of your paycheck is taken and withheld by your employer to pay for your unemployment benefits in case you need them. Its not the country or anyone else paying for it besides the individual. Same concept as taking a % of your paycheck and putting it on top of a jar above the fridge, except its forced and possibly invested to earn them money. Same deal as social security if you are of retirement age. https://eligibility.com/unemployment/where-do-unemployment-benefit-funds-come-fromThe unemployment insurance tax money is placed into three pots: state programs, extended benefits program and the loan fund. The U.S. Department of Labor oversees all of the funds, which are administered through the states. The majority of the money is funneled into the state programs budgets to administer the programs in their area.
During times of increased need, such as the Great Recession, benefits may be changed on a national level using additional funds. This usually comes in the form of extending the time individuals can receive benefits over the 26 week maximum offered in most states. The loan fund is reserved for bridging gaps for states that run out of unemployment insurance money during times of heightened unemployment. State’s who borrow from this pot of money are responsible for paying it back. |
|
|
|
|
TECSHARE
In memoriam
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3318
Merit: 2008
First Exclusion Ever
|
|
May 21, 2020, 11:34:50 PM |
|
And I see you have totally given up on attempting to make any kind of logical argument and have gone full logical fallacy retard. At least you are exposing yourself for what you are this time instead of just pussing out and running away like you usually do when you give up.
No, my second point was actually real, you communist puppet. You are allowed to make outlandish claims without any proof other than that its a possibility, so I'm just mirroring that sentiment. IE this is an intentional economic/power play. Is it not equally as likely that this is an intentional economic/power play but perpetrated by another government rather than our own? I just wanted you to see how joyous it is when all of the proof in the world means nothing in the face of some random conspiracy theory, and everyone else is a jackass because they dont immediately buy into your claims. Even the people who hunt bigfoot look for hair/tracks DNA, speak with people who claim they've seen something, etc. You've provided no data, actions, evidence, but it somehow is on equal standing with a countable number of bodies, data from hospitals, economic advisors and the models they've used for decades on a daily basis for any mundane reason. People run away from talking with you because theres absolutely no reason to, your logic that you expect everyone to buy into defies common sense yet stands on its own with no evidence. If you declare the moon is cheese, it is so. You have no burden of proof, but the burden of proof on others is impossible because if it fits into the framework of the standard for collecting information and analyzing it, its somehow unreliable because thats what they want you to think. On top of that, you aren't particularly pleasant to talk to. Sticking your fingers in your ears and going NANANANA until the other party walks away doesn't make your points any less groundless, it just means you get to continue your conversation all by yourself. Look at BADecker, they're out there as well but people continue to entertain them because though the standard of proof is still impossible to present, at least every other word out of BADecker's mouth isn't, Sweet strawman you non sequitur logical fallacy, and righteous indignation. Here is logic: Assumption 1: Government wants you to continue paying your taxes and their salaries. Assumption 2: They have plenty of employees to model different economic situations on retainer so they can decide economic policy. Assumption 3: They have plenty of internal medical employees (CDC/FDA/NHS) There is a deadly virus which we've both acknowledged exists. The government aims to maximize tax revenue to pay their salaries, compete in the global pissing contest that is, who has the highest GDPs/wealthiest countries etc. External medical personnel (in every country) said oh damn look at this virus, its bad, it'll cause X people to die and Y people to get sick. Internal government medical agencies see that information and go, yup that is right it looks like X people will die and Y people will get sick, here is what we should do (social distancing/shutdowns/masks). Trump administration that is not medical personnel says ok, we need to weigh X people dying and Y people getting sick with the economic damage that will be caused from the suggested measures. They get their wizards to model various scenarios and say, yup if we do this for this long, we'll lose $Z. So you compare the $ in X, Y, and Z and make a policy to minimize all three of those things. So thats the logical course of action, why should we expect them to do that? Is it because we're government stooges? No, its because thats what their job is and whats in their best interest. The Berkeley economics major employed does not care a single iota about your rights, protecting them or taking them away. They don't get to hold your head down in the mud and make you eat worms whether they fudge the numbers or not. They just want to do their job and get a paycheck. Whenever I get my oil changed, I don't hugely worry about them using vegetable oil instead of motor oil, because the people working there have no reason to try to screw me over. The reasonable assumption is that people will do their job. Even if economics modeler A was disgruntled and secretly a spy sent to destroy our financial system, economics modeler B-Z6 would go, hey thats not right? So we've got this conclusion drawn by multiple medical professionals and multiple economics professionals that we should follow a certain plan to minimize the three concerns. Nah, all of that logic is nonsense because the gubmint wants you to submit to them. We should assume they don't act on logic based on the resources they have available, and instead are just out to get us. They'll hurt their own wallets to tell people to stay inside. Medical researchers A-Z15 that are unrelated are just going to let lies pass through. Economics advisors who do this type of work on a daily basis are suddenly stricken with the brain dumb and are no longer competent to do their jobs. Economy is complex, so all of those forecasts that we've been doing all along are no longer able to be completed, and it is to be assumed that policy created is either a toss at a dart board, or an intentional act of destruction to... destroy themselves...? On top of all of that, on the 1 in a trillion chance the US Government is actually doing all of this out of incompetence or malice, that would also imply every other country following the same plan is also doing this out of incompetence or malice. So we're now to either believe this is a global ploy, or that there is not a single competent government out there and every unrelated economics/medical team are all coming to similar conclusions absolutely by coincidence. Nah, lets discard all of that and go with Communist ploy to take over the world. I spent 20 minutes writing a post, and rather than replying, "You see, here are the numbers that show X, Y, and Z, based on this model and as you can see at our current paces and projections, Z was always significantly higher. Don't forget the government also has voting interests in not letting people die over the economy" I'll get, YOU IDIOT GOVERNMENT STOOGE, THEY GOT YA! Some buzz words from debate club, and a rehashing of, they are out to get you so they'll act against their own interest in order to get you. If you question me or ask for more details, you're an idiot, and if you leave the thread because its pointless to continue as my words are gospel without a single iota of proof to my claim, you're running from the truuuuuth. Just because you dismiss or don't understand the evidence I present doesn't mean I haven't presented it. You keep telling me about how I provide no support for my claims when I have provided MANY sources, and so far you haven't provided shit but "trust the government, they are here to help!" and "they are the experts!". No documentation. No evidence, just proclamations of correctitude on your part along with strings of logical fallacies and ad hominem attacks. You don't like being treated like a chump? Start documenting your claims. Provide evidence. Use actual logic, not just declaring yourself correct because mommy and daddy gubmint says so. Here is a small sample of the supporting documentation I have provided in this and other threads related to this subject. Actually review some of it before responding chump. Time isn't on your side. Self imposed destruction:Overstating of the threat:"It is important to remember that death certificate reporting may not meet mandatory reporting requirements for reportable diseases; contact the local health department regarding regulations specific to the jurisdiction.In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.”" https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm |
|
|
|
|
SaltySpitoon
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2590
Merit: 2156
Welcome to the SaltySpitoon, how Tough are ya?
|
|
May 22, 2020, 03:02:21 AM
Last edit: May 22, 2020, 03:34:13 AM by SaltySpitoon |
|
Just because you dismiss or don't understand the evidence I present doesn't mean I haven't presented it. You keep telling me about how I provide no support for my claims when I have provided MANY sources, and so far you haven't provided shit but "trust the government, they are here to help!" and "they are the experts!". No documentation. No evidence, just proclamations of correctitude on your part along with strings of logical fallacies and ad hominem attacks. You don't like being treated like a chump? Start documenting your claims. Provide evidence. Use actual logic, not just declaring yourself correct because mommy and daddy gubmint says so.
Here is a small sample of the supporting documentation I have provided in this and other threads related to this subject. Actually review some of it before responding chump. Time isn't on your side.
Self imposed destruction:
Great! Lets review your sources. It'll take me a while to get through all of these, but I'll get to them all. Please in the future take a few minutes to read your own sources though. On a few of these so far, the studies that are being cited directly state the opposite of your argument. I had this point to make in quite a few responses to your sources, so I'm going to move it here rather than address the same thing over and over again. People are trying to compare the flu to Covid just because its a familiar virus and familiarity is comforting. There are significant differences though that make the comparison between Covid and the Flu useless. Flu has an effective treatment and vaccine, so those that are in a higher risk category that don't want to risk expose can choose a flu shot. There isn't the same case with Covid. The reproduction number, fatality and hospitalization rates are substantially different, as is the length and intensity of treatment required. Regarding the predictions on Georgia's early reopening, while its still too early to tell exactly how that would go, this isn't really a great sign. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/18/only-america-is-sunday-day-after-thursday/If it tries to paywall you, heres the important part.  Theres a few interesting parts in your article about how South Korea, did well while the hardest hit states are the ones with the strictest policies. Would it not make more sense to put it the other way around where the states hit the hardest have had to put the strictest measures in place? South Korea dealt with MERS a few years ago, so as soon as they said, hey guys its time to do this again, action was swift and efficient. They had much more efficient shorter term lockdowns because they started before the virus had much traction, and the people all followed them strictly. Italy is a great example for a country that was blindsided by Covid. They had police enforcing that people stay inside, but that was after the point that their hospitals were full, and the fatality rates were 2x higher than ours. They had unchecked covid19 at little fault of their own, and then had to battle it down with very strict measures. We've been sort of half assing it from the beginning, but at least we didn't hit the same rate of transmission Italy did. We end up with a sliding scale where strict measures stay in place for a short amount of time, or lax measures stay in place longer. IE China's crazy forced rounding up of infected people dealt with the problem quick but at substantial cost to civil liberties, somewhat strict for a short period of time (Northern Europe) where people were asked to not go to the grocery store more than once per week, road closures, and really stay away from everyone, or the US where it took us a while before the measures in place were more than just a recommendation. Every time people didn't take the recommendations seriously and got infected, we bumped out the closures longer while we tried to get it under control. This is an absolutely valid point. People aren't getting routine vaccinations and research is now focused on covid. In addition, domestic violence and child abuse cases are up. Though I don't have the data available to me to make some sort of equivalency between each person that misses a routine vaccine because nonessential doctors visits are canceled, something to consider is that the damage that Covid has caused so far is already factoring in the measures taken. There were predictions made based on the reproduction rate, the specific conditions for how Covid would spread, and fatality rates as well as long term damage. Medical professionals predicted how much damage Covid would do in different circumstances using the same models we predict the global flu counts and end up fractions of a % off when all said and done. This is 100% not sarcastic. Why are people under the impression that the jobs go away and never come back? If you need 20 people to staff a hotel under normal situations, but then they lose their jobs because no one is traveling and the lockdowns are going on, would there not be lodging demand in however many months when things are free to resume as normal? In 1968 the economy took a 20% hit from a bad flu season. Everything I can find shows an economic downturn and then uptick after the vaccine became available 4 months later. While I understand there is the possibility for businesses to go under completely and not be able to return, if there is population and demand for goods/services in a location why would that demand go away when things resume? In my case and in my state anyway, my business expenses have been frozen. They'll have to be repaid, but repayment will begin after the emergency orders are lifted. On the contrary, I'd be in worse shape if the restrictions were lifted now, and had to pay expenses but sales were reduced because people chose to stay home. The lockdown orders give legal protections to businesses that could otherwise be harassed by creditors or forced into bankruptcy just from people's choice to stay home. They also give legal protections to employees that could be forced into unemployment because their employer didn't value health guidelines if they were guidelines instead of orders. Again, I agree with the sentiment, but you may want to read the study itself its referencing. Your link directs you to bloomberg, which directs you to wellbeingtrust.org which seems reliable enough, but its not their study. That then directs you to an article published in the JAMA Psychiatry journal which has not been peer reviewed yet. It is well reasoned and thought out, but its not calling itself a study, its a respectable opinion piece. Anyway, even if inclined to treat it as fact, as I will because even if not 100% accurate, it appears to have credible reason behind each of its claims, there are a few parts I imagine we'd both disagree with. It blames the increased sale of firearms during Covid as a major contributor to the increase suicides expected to see over the next 10 years. There is mention of the role isolation and economic stress plays, but its also factoring in the stress and death from the illness itself. I'm not dismissing this point, but heres an important part.  https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/fullarticle/2764584Yup, NYC may lose 900,000 jobs. Compared to how many otherwise? To be abundantly optimistic, lets use New York state's statistics instead of New York City's. *Will return running the numbers for you* So heres one I'm fairly well versed with that doesn't require hunting for data. I'm happy to go find official sources to rehash what I'm writing. There is no food shortage and the supply chain isn't broken per say. About half of food supplies are distributed to vendors like grocery stores, and half are distributed to restaurants. The transportation roles still exist, and the food exists, but they don't have contracts with grocery stores to deliver food, despite the food demand shifting from restaurant to grocery stores. Demand for certain foods is a little screwy, like potatoes which are served as french fries at restaurants are not proportionately being eaten by consumers that wouldn't make french fries themselves at home. Its a change, but not inherently long lasting or problematic. Overstating of the threat:"It is important to remember that death certificate reporting may not meet mandatory reporting requirements for reportable diseases; contact the local health department regarding regulations specific to the jurisdiction.In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.”" https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm[/quote] |
|
|
|
|
TECSHARE
In memoriam
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3318
Merit: 2008
First Exclusion Ever
|
|
May 22, 2020, 04:21:54 AM |
|
Let me know when you find some sources of your own supporting the premise that experts broke down the macroeconomic economic impact of these perpetual lock downs. Critiquing my sources is not the same as having your own. You cry and claim I am just making baseless proclamations, but you yourself have substantiated jack shit as you accuse me of the same.
|
|
|
|
|
SaltySpitoon
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2590
Merit: 2156
Welcome to the SaltySpitoon, how Tough are ya?
|
|
May 22, 2020, 05:01:25 AM |
|
Let me know when you find some sources of your own supporting the premise that experts broke down the macroeconomic economic impact of these perpetual lock downs. Critiquing my sources is not the same as having your own. You cry and claim I am just making baseless proclamations, but you yourself have substantiated jack shit as you accuse me of the same.
Fair enough, to me it is common sense, but I suppose to you the info in your sources might be common sense. Anyway, tell me where you start to disagree and I'll start from there. Trump has an interest in the economy, the White House has economic advisors, Trump has consulted with his White House economic advisors, Trump has consulted with his medical advisors, They didn't just make up random stuff to tell the president, they both have the capability (human resources, equipment, ability) to make predictions, Policy was created based on their input. |
|
|
|
|
TECSHARE
In memoriam
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3318
Merit: 2008
First Exclusion Ever
|
|
May 22, 2020, 06:29:18 AM |
|
Let me know when you find some sources of your own supporting the premise that experts broke down the macroeconomic economic impact of these perpetual lock downs. Critiquing my sources is not the same as having your own. You cry and claim I am just making baseless proclamations, but you yourself have substantiated jack shit as you accuse me of the same.
Fair enough, to me it is common sense, but I suppose to you the info in your sources might be common sense. Anyway, tell me where you start to disagree and I'll start from there. Trump has an interest in the economy, the White House has economic advisors, Trump has consulted with his White House economic advisors, Trump has consulted with his medical advisors, They didn't just make up random stuff to tell the president, they both have the capability (human resources, equipment, ability) to make predictions, Policy was created based on their input. I believe I was very clear. The government is not monolithic, and a few key individuals can and have sold out this country over the years for private gain. "Common sense" and beliefs are another way of saying baseless assumptions they did their jobs and in our interest. Right now our country is filled with saboteurs at every level of government working for various ideological and profit motives. People don't know it yet, but we are already at war with China. We have been for at least a few years, and they have been at war with us for years before that. They have a very robust fifth column within our nation and part of all the chaos that is happening now is a result of that conflict. |
|
|
|
|
SaltySpitoon
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2590
Merit: 2156
Welcome to the SaltySpitoon, how Tough are ya?
|
|
May 22, 2020, 07:50:37 AM |
|
I believe I was very clear. The government is not monolithic, and a few key individuals can and have sold out this country over the years for private gain. "Common sense" and beliefs are another way of saying baseless assumptions they did their jobs and in our interest. Right now our country is filled with saboteurs at every level of government working for various ideological and profit motives. People don't know it yet, but we are already at war with China. We have been for at least a few years, and they have been at war with us for years before that. They have a very robust fifth column within our nation and part of all the chaos that is happening now is a result of that conflict.
Yeah, none of that is clear at all. So even if I did prove that Trump approved the best possible choice given the information available at the time of his choice, and that he took into consideration the advice of however many aides and economic/medical experts that I could find evidence of. The models that the experts were basing their advice on were comprehensive and inclusive of your concerns. You'd still be able to nullify all of it with actual baseless claims that someone sabotaged it. What was the point of asking for proof? Common sense isn't a baseless assumption, the very definition is the base assumption. If something works the way common sense dictates in 99/100 cases, it becomes common sense and you tend to believe so unless something out of the ordinary dictates otherwise, not the other way around. I don't really care that your world view is "non traditional", just don't bother wasting anyone's time asking them to disprove that the ghost of Lincoln is running the shadow government from the basement of the pentagon. |
|
|
|
|
TECSHARE
In memoriam
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3318
Merit: 2008
First Exclusion Ever
|
|
May 22, 2020, 04:28:01 PM |
|
I believe I was very clear. The government is not monolithic, and a few key individuals can and have sold out this country over the years for private gain. "Common sense" and beliefs are another way of saying baseless assumptions they did their jobs and in our interest. Right now our country is filled with saboteurs at every level of government working for various ideological and profit motives. People don't know it yet, but we are already at war with China. We have been for at least a few years, and they have been at war with us for years before that. They have a very robust fifth column within our nation and part of all the chaos that is happening now is a result of that conflict.
Yeah, none of that is clear at all. So even if I did prove that Trump approved the best possible choice given the information available at the time of his choice, and that he took into consideration the advice of however many aides and economic/medical experts that I could find evidence of. The models that the experts were basing their advice on were comprehensive and inclusive of your concerns. You'd still be able to nullify all of it with actual baseless claims that someone sabotaged it. What was the point of asking for proof? Common sense isn't a baseless assumption, the very definition is the base assumption. If something works the way common sense dictates in 99/100 cases, it becomes common sense and you tend to believe so unless something out of the ordinary dictates otherwise, not the other way around. I don't really care that your world view is "non traditional", just don't bother wasting anyone's time asking them to disprove that the ghost of Lincoln is running the shadow government from the basement of the pentagon. Convenient out for yourself without documenting anything chump. You are everything you accused me of being. |
|
|
|
|
SaltySpitoon
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2590
Merit: 2156
Welcome to the SaltySpitoon, how Tough are ya?
|
|
May 22, 2020, 04:56:15 PM |
|
I believe I was very clear. The government is not monolithic, and a few key individuals can and have sold out this country over the years for private gain. "Common sense" and beliefs are another way of saying baseless assumptions they did their jobs and in our interest. Right now our country is filled with saboteurs at every level of government working for various ideological and profit motives. People don't know it yet, but we are already at war with China. We have been for at least a few years, and they have been at war with us for years before that. They have a very robust fifth column within our nation and part of all the chaos that is happening now is a result of that conflict.
Yeah, none of that is clear at all. So even if I did prove that Trump approved the best possible choice given the information available at the time of his choice, and that he took into consideration the advice of however many aides and economic/medical experts that I could find evidence of. The models that the experts were basing their advice on were comprehensive and inclusive of your concerns. You'd still be able to nullify all of it with actual baseless claims that someone sabotaged it. What was the point of asking for proof? Common sense isn't a baseless assumption, the very definition is the base assumption. If something works the way common sense dictates in 99/100 cases, it becomes common sense and you tend to believe so unless something out of the ordinary dictates otherwise, not the other way around. I don't really care that your world view is "non traditional", just don't bother wasting anyone's time asking them to disprove that the ghost of Lincoln is running the shadow government from the basement of the pentagon. Convenient out for yourself without documenting anything chump. You are everything you accused me of being. Nice ad hominem, we get right to the meat and bones of the problem, and rather than addressing it, you avoid the entire thing. Can you give me just a little hint on how anyone could possibly go about proving that there aren't spies intentionally infiltrating and sabotaging our public policy?  If I do manage to find definitive proof, will you pink promise that you won't just deny it as a hoax from the Russians that are pretending to be Chinese infiltrators to shift the blame onto the Chinese? First your point was that the government was not competent of complex economic analysis, so I set out to find evidence to the contrary. I asked you to elaborate on where you stopped believing in common sense so I could find specific proof and not waste my time explaining that 2+2 = 4, and then you come back with ghosts and bigfoot. Can you prove that ghosts exist? No, but you can't prove that they don't exist either. That must mean that ghosts exist and you can make the statement that ghosts exist and anyone who says otherwise is wrong and a hater because they can't prove that they don't exist. I don't think that we should base our public policy on ghosts. |
|
|
|
|
TECSHARE
In memoriam
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3318
Merit: 2008
First Exclusion Ever
|
|
May 22, 2020, 05:07:41 PM |
|
Nice ad hominem, we get right to the meat and bones of the problem, and rather than addressing it, you avoid the entire thing. Can you give me just a little hint on how anyone could possibly go about proving that there aren't spies intentionally infiltrating and sabotaging our public policy? If I do manage to find definitive proof, will you pink promise that you won't just deny it as a hoax from the Russians that are pretending to be Chinese infiltrators to shift the blame onto the Chinese? First your point was that the government was not competent of complex economic analysis, so I set out to find evidence to the contrary. I asked you to elaborate on where you stopped believing in common sense so I could find specific proof and not waste my time explaining that 2+2 = 4, and then you come back with ghosts and bigfoot. Can you prove that ghosts exist? No, but you can't prove that they don't exist either. That must mean that ghosts exist and you can make the statement that ghosts exist and anyone who says otherwise is wrong and a hater because they can't prove that they don't exist. I don't think that we should base our public policy on ghosts. The difference between my ad hominem and your ad hominem, is I substantiated my claims with sources along with it. You substantiate your claims with proclaiming your conclusions are above reproach, and you need not substantiate anything. I didn't ask you to prove anything about spies. I asked you to document that there was analysis done of the macroeconomic impact that these lock downs would have on the population. You are desperately trying to straw man your way out of this corner you have painted yourself into. |
|
|
|
|
SaltySpitoon
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2590
Merit: 2156
Welcome to the SaltySpitoon, how Tough are ya?
|
|
May 22, 2020, 05:28:37 PM |
|
The difference between my ad hominem and your ad hominem, is I substantiated my claims with sources along with it. You substantiate your claims with proclaiming your conclusions are above reproach, and you need not substantiate anything. I didn't ask you to prove anything about spies. I asked you to document that there was analysis done of the macroeconomic impact that these lock downs would have on the population. You are desperately trying to straw man your way out of this corner you have painted yourself into.
What does this have to do with macroeconomics? I believe I was very clear. The government is not monolithic, and a few key individuals can and have sold out this country over the years for private gain. "Common sense" and beliefs are another way of saying baseless assumptions they did their jobs and in our interest. Right now our country is filled with saboteurs at every level of government working for various ideological and profit motives. People don't know it yet, but we are already at war with China. We have been for at least a few years, and they have been at war with us for years before that. They have a very robust fifth column within our nation and part of all the chaos that is happening now is a result of that conflict.
I can very easily find you proof that your concerns about macroeconomics were within projections by first finding published records from the BEA and US Commerce Department. Showing published information that your concerns are inside of the models they use, and then linking the current economic advisors using those models based on press conference statements and accessible proven records. What I cannot do, is interview a government spokesperson and ask them how many ousted spies there have been so far, or how many they expect are still remaining and what impact they have. If I spend an hour compiling all of the proof in the world and then you respond with, thats what the spies want you to think! I've wasted my time. What you've substantiated is that there is a negative economic effect because of Covid. Duh... Your sources aren't saying, "The lockdowns are causing this" they've said "the lockdowns and covid are causing this". Cool, 900,000 jobs lost, what about the 10 billion people that have already died and lost their jobs (I'm counting the subterranean people that have been hit even harder)? https://www.history.com/news/8-mysterious-underground-citieshttps://www.popsci.com/humans-survive-underground/ |
|
|
|
|
TECSHARE
In memoriam
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3318
Merit: 2008
First Exclusion Ever
|
|
May 23, 2020, 08:14:57 AM |
|
What does this have to do with macroeconomics? I believe I was very clear. The government is not monolithic, and a few key individuals can and have sold out this country over the years for private gain. "Common sense" and beliefs are another way of saying baseless assumptions they did their jobs and in our interest. Right now our country is filled with saboteurs at every level of government working for various ideological and profit motives. People don't know it yet, but we are already at war with China. We have been for at least a few years, and they have been at war with us for years before that. They have a very robust fifth column within our nation and part of all the chaos that is happening now is a result of that conflict.
I can very easily find you proof that your concerns about macroeconomics were within projections by first finding published records from the BEA and US Commerce Department. Showing published information that your concerns are inside of the models they use, and then linking the current economic advisors using those models based on press conference statements and accessible proven records. What I cannot do, is interview a government spokesperson and ask them how many ousted spies there have been so far, or how many they expect are still remaining and what impact they have. If I spend an hour compiling all of the proof in the world and then you respond with, thats what the spies want you to think! I've wasted my time. What you've substantiated is that there is a negative economic effect because of Covid. Duh... Your sources aren't saying, "The lockdowns are causing this" they've said "the lockdowns and covid are causing this". Cool, 900,000 jobs lost, what about the 10 billion people that have already died and lost their jobs (I'm counting the subterranean people that have been hit even harder)? https://www.history.com/news/8-mysterious-underground-citieshttps://www.popsci.com/humans-survive-underground/That information was presented to substantiate the claim that there are plenty of motives to lie, manipulate data, and intentionally crash our economy under the pretext of safety. Again you topic slide and resort to more chump like ad hominem attacks instead of substantiating your claims. Very convenient your conclusions are above reproach and you need not substantiate anything based on some chickenshit excuse that it is meaningless because I won't accept it. My acceptance is totally irrelevant. Your inability to substantiate your claims is however quite relevant. |
|
|
|
|
Gyfts
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2856
Merit: 1519
|
|
May 23, 2020, 08:59:38 AM |
|
Neither side of the aisle is going to want the economy to die, no one wants that to happen, but the parties have a bit of a different take on how they want to go about things and that's okay. One would think this, but let's be honest. It's in the interest of Democrats for the economy to crash before the reelection. Bill Maher said it would be worth it to see the economy crash if it meant Trump would lose 2020. I think that at the end of the day we should follow scientific metrics in how we're going to open the country -- as a country we should follow something like NY in how we're going to open - https://forward.ny.gov/regional-monitoring-dashboard - take a look here and this will show you. NY (and I think NJ too) is following a metric based system in how they're going to open different parts of the state if they're able to pass different metrics that experts have agreed on. I read through the metrics and I think it's being overly cautious. I'm one to advocate to being on the side of caution but one of the more stricter proposals is a decline in the 3 day average of deaths and fewer than 2 hospitalizations per 100k population. I'm not sure a city like NY can sustain numbers like these after reopening meaning that prolonged lock down looks to be the future. Reopening the economy means there's going to be an increase in cases, increase in hospitalizations, and deaths. But with social distancing in place I don't think it's enough to overwhelm the healthcare system. This seems to be the case with Georgia - https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report*Disclaimer about Georgia - There were reports that the state were not properly counting coronavirus cases and under reporting them. Not sure how accurate the numbers are but I don't think a few unreported cases means you need to reject the data entirely. |
|
|
|
|
Majormax
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2534
Merit: 1129
|
|
May 23, 2020, 09:42:51 AM |
|
TBH , I've read endless analysis on this subject for months (as have a large % of the world's population) and it seems to me there will never be a definitive answer on whether the total life damage/years lost will be worse or better under various 'remedies'.
Each country in the world has its own peculiarities , to do with culture, population density, mobility, demographic and vulnerabilty. Add to that political and social agendas, and most statistics cannot be compared. The same may well be true in different states of the USA.
Unfortunate as it seems, any action taken may make little difference to the overall long term outcome.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
squatz1 (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1285
Flying Hellfish is a Commie
|
|
May 25, 2020, 12:34:24 AM |
|
Neither side of the aisle is going to want the economy to die, no one wants that to happen, but the parties have a bit of a different take on how they want to go about things and that's okay. One would think this, but let's be honest. It's in the interest of Democrats for the economy to crash before the reelection. Bill Maher said it would be worth it to see the economy crash if it meant Trump would lose 2020. I think that at the end of the day we should follow scientific metrics in how we're going to open the country -- as a country we should follow something like NY in how we're going to open - https://forward.ny.gov/regional-monitoring-dashboard - take a look here and this will show you. NY (and I think NJ too) is following a metric based system in how they're going to open different parts of the state if they're able to pass different metrics that experts have agreed on. I read through the metrics and I think it's being overly cautious. I'm one to advocate to being on the side of caution but one of the more stricter proposals is a decline in the 3 day average of deaths and fewer than 2 hospitalizations per 100k population. I'm not sure a city like NY can sustain numbers like these after reopening meaning that prolonged lock down looks to be the future. Reopening the economy means there's going to be an increase in cases, increase in hospitalizations, and deaths. But with social distancing in place I don't think it's enough to overwhelm the healthcare system. This seems to be the case with Georgia - https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report*Disclaimer about Georgia - There were reports that the state were not properly counting coronavirus cases and under reporting them. Not sure how accurate the numbers are but I don't think a few unreported cases means you need to reject the data entirely. I could understand the point regarding Democrats wanting the economy to flounder under Trump, that's true. But I don't think they'd be willing to actively kill the economy to get to that point. No one knew this was going to happen, and no one wants this to happen. I've said this before on here, but if Trump is able to show that he did an effective job in fighting this -- then voters aren't going to blame him -- if he is unable to do this though, and it looks like another president (IE Biden) could've done a better job, then voters will vote him out and say he is at fault for at least some of the economic damage. Oh yeah, NY is totally being cautious here. But I understand it, they have about 1/3 of the US hospitalizations and deaths. Not sure on the Georgia stuff though. |
|
|
|
BADecker
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 4004
Merit: 1387
|
|
May 25, 2020, 01:16:39 AM |
|
^^^ Now is a great time to set up your new business. When the "opening" comes, you'll be ready to dive in and go. But you can dive in already, because there is approximately 1 reason why the opening is here already. It's the fear of the people. But many people don't fear. And if government steps in to shut you down, take the government man or woman to court personally for damaging your business. Why will this work? Because in a jury trial, they don't have proof of a Covid pandemic. Check out Dr. Andrew Kaufmann at Bitchute.com. ( https://www.bitchute.com/video/820KuUlAosuB/)  |
|
|
|
|
