Hashrate is dropping

[Little Mouse]

As you can see above, hashrate is decreasing after the halving as expected. Due to that, the fee has increased and according to bitcoinfees, the recommded fee is 150 sat / per byte and there are a lot of unconfirmed transaction.
After halving, we can say some miners have left. What do you think? More miners will leave too? And what if hashrate drop more?

[mycryptocoin]

BTC just halving some day, so I think this is temporary condition. The hashrate is dropping because the blockreward is down a half But the Diff of Bitcoin is still like after halving (Because the diff will re- calculate after 14 day). So I think, after diff of Bitcoin is calculated, the hashrate will be increase

[Darker45]

Notwithstanding the drop, the current hashrate is still higher than it was several days ago. I guess there is nothing alarming with the current drop. After all, it is somehow expected, with others even seeing around a third of the entire mining firms probably shutting down operations.
 
Hashrate dropping means difficulty declining. So there will probably be a bounce back a couple of weeks later. In addition, the fee per transaction which is approaching $6 and the price of Bitcoin approaching $10,000 will probably compensate the halved reward.

It is worth noting that Bitcoin has gone as low as ~$3,000 months ago but with the hashrate not showing any worrisome drop. So, I guess we can easily weather this drop right now. 

[squatter]

As you can see above, hashrate is decreasing after the halving as expected. Due to that, the fee has increased and according to bitcoinfees, the recommded fee is 150 sat / per byte and there are a lot of unconfirmed transaction.
After halving, we can say some miners have left. What do you think? More miners will leave too? And what if hashrate drop more?

The hash rate is declining but the drop has been fairly modest. Difficulty is still technically slated to increase in 4 days, although it will probably become a modest (1-2%) decrease by then. It may take 2 difficulty adjustments for the fee market to normalize, but I see no cause for concern.

Fees have also been driven up by increased exchange activity recently, which usually coincides with boosts in price.

By the way, I strongly recommend Johoe's mempool viewer over Earn.com. 110-120 satoshis/byte is likely to get next block confirmation at this time despite what Earn.com says.

[marcayden]

You are right by saying that this is a predicted phenomenon after the halving event.

There are some opinions regarding the way forward after BTC halving which could include the following:

1) The entire idea of halving is to force miners to be more efficient, so weeding out the inefficient and unsustainable ones are part of the beautiful design of blockchain
2) The remaining mining pools might consolidate to combine resources
3) There will be players entering the market once again when the price reaches a higher level that would make mining profitable again
4) When GPU technology advances further (with 7nm and 5nm production capabilities - and research has started for 2nm) it will be more efficient yet have a much higher hash rate.

This is my personal opinion, but if this happens, everything will be accelerated
1) The involvement of large datacentres and academic bodies to form their own mining pool.

[Debonaire217]

What does this imply? With my initial perception about the topic, some bitcoin miners are now starting to leave the market, as we know the relationship about hash rate and miners, if there are a huge number of miners, there are huge hash rate as well. But one thing I fear about this is that, the lower the hash rate we have about bitcoin network, the more vulnerable it could be.

I have watched some videos before concerning owning 51% of the hash mining power, if we can establish 51% of the worlds hashing power, we might manipulate blocks, though, there's no solid proof of it, I still believe that there will be enough miners to provide us with good service.

[pooya87]

As you can see above, hashrate is decreasing

that chart is completely wrong. we have no method of measuring hashrate in such a small time frame. they are basically taking the time between blocks and use that to compute hashrate which is wrong because block hashes are completely random, miners could get lucky and find them faster or unlucky and find them slower (eg. 1-2 seconds between blocks versus 1 hour between them). that doesn't mean hashrate has gone up or down in matter of days.
the only correct (closer to be correct but still not accurate) value for hashrat is when it is measured over a longer time such as the difficulty adjustment period which is 2 weeks.

after the halving as expected.

wrong, you can not expect what will happen to the hashrate just because of halving.

Due to that, the fee has increased

wrong. fees only rise when there is a surge in number of transactions. considering the fact that price has been fluctuation hard and it has gone up nearly 15% it is understandable to see an increased number of transactions hence an increased amount of fee.

and according to bitcoinfees, the recommded fee is 150 sat / per byte

that site is the worst place to check the fees, it is always overestimating fees on purpose. right now as they suggest 150 as "The fastest and cheapest transaction fee" the reality is that around 100 to 110 gives you the fastest and cheapest fee. in other words they are reporting 50% higher fees!

After halving, we can say some miners have left. What do you think? More miners will leave too? And what if hashrate drop more?

no you can't say that, although i think naturally some miners did leave but we still have no evidence to support that. at least another week has to pass for us to be able to make that conclusion.

[pawanjain]

What does this imply? With my initial perception about the topic, some bitcoin miners are now starting to leave the market, as we know the relationship about hash rate and miners, if there are a huge number of miners, there are huge hash rate as well. But one thing I fear about this is that, the lower the hash rate we have about bitcoin network, the more vulnerable it could be.

I have watched some videos before concerning owning 51% of the hash mining power, if we can establish 51% of the worlds hashing power, we might manipulate blocks, though, there's no solid proof of it, I still believe that there will be enough miners to provide us with good service.

Really ?
I don't think that owning more than 51% of the hahing power will give you the ability to manipulate the block reward.
Yes, you can manipulate the transactions and change them to however you want but I think the block reward will remain the same since it has been coded in that way. If you want to change the block reward then you will have to change the way how the bitcoin is coded.
Well this is my understanding. Let me know if I am wrong.

[pooya87]

I don't think that owning more than 51% of the hahing power will give you the ability to manipulate the block reward.
Yes, you can manipulate the transactions and change them to however you want but I think the block reward will remain the same since it has been coded in that way. If you want to change the block reward then you will have to change the way how the bitcoin is coded.
Well this is my understanding. Let me know if I am wrong.

you are correct, block reward is a consensus rule and any manipulation of it would be against these rules which means if a block had a value larger than the allowed amount which is currently 6.25 + total fees (it can be smaller but not bigger) would be considered a invalid block by the entire network effectively moves the miner to a separate chain (fork) of its own where only that miner alone is on it.
it won't matter how much hashrate that miner has since the nodes reject such invalid blocks.

[Wind_FURY]

BTC just halving some day, so I think this is temporary condition. The hashrate is dropping because the blockreward is down a half But the Diff of Bitcoin is still like after halving (Because the diff will re- calculate after 14 day). So I think, after diff of Bitcoin is calculated, the hashrate will be increase

Plus the price will surge again, and hashing power will be back. You know why? Because currently, slow blocks will have slower selling pressure by miners, AND users.

OP's concern is almost FUD-like in my opinion.

[billykannithi]

The Bitcoin Blockchain just Halving, so I think It only is temporary signals. The hashrate down mean some miner is shutdown your machine. But, maybe reason is Diff of Bitcoin. The diff of Bitcoin is still before halving because after 14 day, the diff of Bitcoin will re- calculate

[stompix]

The hash rate is declining but the drop has been fairly modest. Difficulty is still technically slated to increase in 4 days, although it will probably become a modest (1-2%) decrease by then. It may take 2 difficulty adjustments for the fee market to normalize, but I see no cause for concern.

I wouldn't call 109 blocks in 24 hours modest.
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks?q=time(2020-05-13%2007:25:23..2020-05-14%2007:25:23)
Even with the price increase, we're still doing
Blocks:131
Avg. time between blocks: 659.54 s.

10% (now), that's not modest.

that doesn't mean hashrate has gone up or down in matter of days.
the only correct (closer to be correct but still not accurate) value for hashrat is when it is measured over a longer time such as the difficulty adjustment period which is 2 weeks.

If you go from +40 blocks ahead of time to 11 that's the hash rate in two days decreasing.

Due to that, the fee has increased

wrong. fees only rise when there is a surge in number of transactions. considering the fact that price has been fluctuation hard and it has gone up nearly 15% it is understandable to see an increased number of transactions hence an increased amount of fee.

Actually right as a consequence.
We have fewer mined blocks than normal, in the lasts 48 hours:
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks?q=time(2020-05-13%2006:54:55..2020-05-15%2006:54:55)

239 blocks compared to 288 normally.
On an average of 2000tx per block, that's nearly 80k transactions that couldn't have been confirmed in the last 48 hours compared to normal..
We take a look at the mempool, there are 60k unconfirmed.  

no you can't say that, although i think naturally some miners did leave but we still have no evidence to support that.

Now you have the evidence.

[sheenshane]

As expected hashrate will drop due to halving that result miners stop mining business, this might take a few days or even weeks but rest assured it will rise again and go back to normal. However, the drop in hashrate is moderate compare to the previous dropped happen in the past halving event and as it has been proven in the past it will still bounce back soon. This happens only because some miners started to leave because of the halving of rewards but I don't think that this is an alarming scenario for it will be set again once trading starts to begin as usual.

I have heard from those expert in analyst that, paradoxically, the temporary decrease in the hashrate probably may a bullish sign for Bitcoin.

[bob123]

IMO, miners leaving was predictable.
The earnings have been reduced by 50%. Some simply cant' continue to mine without losing money due to ongoing costs (rent / electricity / maintenance).

Depending on whether the BTC/USD value is going to rise or fall, we might see miners coming back or even more leaving. That's business. If they don't earn money, they stop mining.

I have heard from those expert in analyst that, paradoxically, the temporary decrease in the hashrate probably may a bullish sign for Bitcoin.

Could be, but doesn't have to.
Those "experts" don't have any clue. Just like any other person.

[hatshepsut93]

After halving, we can say some miners have left. What do you think? More miners will leave too? And what if hashrate drop more?

Who cares, difficulty will adjust sooner or later and we'll go back to 10 minutes blocks soon. There's nothing extraordinary or unpredictable about halvings, everyone knew about them, everyone who needed prepared for them. There won't be any "death spiral" or whatever other FUD people may be spreading these days. There's nothing to worry about it.

[Krislaw]

Earnings was reduced and some can't be expected to stay. Most people know this already and might be temporary. For now, we should see a price increase as this is usual.

Due to that, the fee has increased and according to bitcoinfees, the recommded fee is 150 sat / per byte and there are a lot of unconfirmed transaction.

This would be temporary as big miners can increase their mining and contribute more hash rate.

[fiulpro]

See 15-30% drop in the hash rate was already predicted and therefore I did make the post on it before the Halving. 
Halving decreases the reward for the miners and therefore if you are a small miner, it will be difficult for you to pay your bills and all , therefore I do think we need to wait for everything to come down at a neutral rate .
Soon enough the big miners will be able to overtake the work and it will go back to normal and therefore let's wait for a while to make a conclusion about he hashrate decreasing.

[casperBGD]

See 15-30% drop in the hash rate was already predicted and therefore I did make the post on it before the Halving. 
Halving decreases the reward for the miners and therefore if you are a small miner, it will be difficult for you to pay your bills and all , therefore I do think we need to wait for everything to come down at a neutral rate .
Soon enough the big miners will be able to overtake the work and it will go back to normal and therefore let's wait for a while to make a conclusion about he hashrate decreasing.

yeah, inefficient miners are giving up, and new miners with new and efficient equipment will go in when the difficulty goes down, it was predicted, so would not make any fuss about it, just go on

[Oasisman]

See 15-30% drop in the hash rate was already predicted and therefore I did make the post on it before the Halving. 
Halving decreases the reward for the miners and therefore if you are a small miner, it will be difficult for you to pay your bills and all , therefore I do think we need to wait for everything to come down at a neutral rate .
Soon enough the big miners will be able to overtake the work and it will go back to normal and therefore let's wait for a while to make a conclusion about he hashrate decreasing.

Or small time miners temporarily suspended their operations to upgrade their hardware equipments.
Since mining Bitcoin at the third block halving requires faster mining hardware equipment. However, it's true that the hash rate drop was already expected because it will generally affect the miners income.
Anyway, this won't take forever. Miners specially the big ones are still in adjustment period, they will be fully operational soon.

[Baofeng]

After halving, we can say some miners have left. What do you think? More miners will leave too? And what if hashrate drop more?

Who cares, difficulty will adjust sooner or later and we'll go back to 10 minutes blocks soon. There's nothing extraordinary or unpredictable about halvings, everyone knew about them, everyone who needed prepared for them. There won't be any "death spiral" or whatever other FUD people may be spreading these days. There's nothing to worry about it.

I guess it's too early to say, why not give at least a week to see how it goes for the miners. The decline might indicate that some miners have turn-off their rigs and shut down their operations because it is harder for some of them to make profit, but it doesn't mean the 'capitulation'. And rainy season is coming to South East Asia (we just have a typhoon here), which, and as we all know that Chinese miners is generating power from hydro-electric, so maybe we won't see any death spiral post-halving.

[BitcoinsGreat]

After halving, we can say some miners have left. What do you think? More miners will leave too? And what if hashrate drop more?

Who cares, difficulty will adjust sooner or later and we'll go back to 10 minutes blocks soon. There's nothing extraordinary or unpredictable about halvings, everyone knew about them, everyone who needed prepared for them. There won't be any "death spiral" or whatever other FUD people may be spreading these days. There's nothing to worry about it.

I am also beginning to worry as i see so many unconfirmed transactions. Also if this continue for long, will it have a bad effect on bitcoin and people will start to leave bitcoin and use other altcoins for example ethereum to avoid the high fee and confirmations time ?

[meanwords]

No, halving really takes a toll to small time farmers which is why the hash-rates are dropping. Once the difficulty adjust, miners will come again and the hash will surely rise again. But it may take time since there are many factors that affect miners. Let's consider the profit of miners right now, it is at -50% because of the halving. Most miners would lost money. If Bitcoin where to rise in price at at least $12,000+, small time miners might consider mining again.

[pooya87]

~

all true but my point is that since the period you are looking at is very tiny you can not make an accurate conclusion. there is a very high chance of that conclusion having a very large error.
when you look at the past 6 months hashrate chart you can see pretty much similar movements with a tiny overall rise. https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#6m so why is this particular "fluctuation" in the number that these sites report (which is not accurate) any different? just because it was after halving?

[joniboini]

I am also beginning to worry as i see so many unconfirmed transactions. Also if this continue for long, will it have a bad effect on bitcoin and people will start to leave bitcoin and use other altcoins for example ethereum to avoid the high fee and confirmations time ?

There's no need to worry as the difficulty will get adjusted roughly every 2 weeks. It is not as bad as 2018 where people are rushing every time to make txs.

It will depend on what people actually wanted. If they need crypto to pay for something fast (but not that secure), using alts might be an option. But if they want to use bitcoin then they won't move from it. Bitcoin is really secured compared to other networks where 1 confirmation is enough for most merchants to accept your transaction, while on other chains you might need several confirmations.

[stompix]

all true but my point is that since the period you are looking at is very tiny you can not make an accurate conclusion. there is a very high chance of that conclusion having a very large error.
when you look at the past 6 months hashrate chart you can see pretty much similar movements with a tiny overall rise. https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#6m so why is this particular "fluctuation" in the number that these sites report (which is not accurate) any different? just because it was after halving?

The last 6 months are irrelevant in this case because the halving happened a week ago not 3 months, it's already half of a retarget period and I wouldn't call it tiny period because if you call half a period like that we can extend this to two retargeting as we need 10 to make sure, right?

So, let's forget about sites, and speak with block times, the blockchain doesn't lie, no?

The first block of this epoch:
628992  Mined on  2020-05-05 04:00
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/block/628992

The halving block:
630000  Mined on  2020-05-11 19:23
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/block/630000

The last block mined:
630576 Mined on  2020-05-16 09:11
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/block/630576

So, before the halving we were doing for 6 days:
1008 blocks  in 6 days, 15 hours, 23 minutes  9383 minutes  9.3 mins/b

After:
576 blocks 4 days, 13 hours, 48 minutes 6588  11.43mins/b

Just before the halving the difficulty estimator was:

... between +4.3774% and +6.0926%

now is

between -1.8704% and -1.7868%

Plus, the price at the start of the period was 500$ lower than what we have now, so a plus 5% in the other direction  

[kryptqnick]

after the halving as expected.

wrong, you can not expect what will happen to the hashrate just because of halving.

I believe it's a natural assumption that some miners will leave after halving, finding mining unprofitable, and the hashrate would drop. Antonopoulos make this assumption prior to halving as a possibility. So while we can't know what will happen before it does, I think we can expect some things to happen. I do agree that it's too early to jump to conclusions about what's going on right now, as it's been only days since halving. Interpreting a limited amount of data and treating it as enough evidence is always a bad thing. More info can show a completely different pattern.

[vietnamoi.vn]

As you can see above, hashrate is decreasing after the halving as expected. Due to that, the fee has increased and according to bitcoinfees, the recommded fee is 150 sat / per byte and there are a lot of unconfirmed transaction.
After halving, we can say some miners have left. What do you think? More miners will leave too? And what if hashrate drop more?

That is completely normal. When Halving occurs, the difficulty of mining will increase while the current price is still not rising. This has caused small miners to give up because of the doubling of the difficulty level, but the profit has not increased.
However, it is also time for new mining companies with more modern machines to participate in Bitcoin mining. Then the Hashrate will increase again

Will my analysis satisfy you?

[LUCKMCFLY]

According to this Halving effect of Bitcoin, miners have lost 61% of their income, and there is talk of the death spiral that translates into higher transaction fees, representing 17% of the miners' income, which is The highest compared to 2018, the good thing is that for some experts, the fall of Hashrate may represent a bullish signal for Bitcoin.

This information appears in: https://cointelegraph.com/news/post-halving-reality-17-of-miner-revenue-is-coming-from-fees

[Artemis3]

As you can see above, hashrate is decreasing after the halving as expected. Due to that, the fee has increased and according to bitcoinfees, the recommded fee is 150 sat / per byte and there are a lot of unconfirmed transaction.
After halving, we can say some miners have left. What do you think? More miners will leave too? And what if hashrate drop more?

NO. The fees and the hashrate are unrelated. Fees go up and down according to network traffic, this is separate to the network hashrate.

Of course some miners would leave. Moments before the halving was 140 EH/s or so, and its like 85 EH/s currently. In order to not change, bitcoin's price would had to double, which didn't, as it was my expectation. It fell somewhere between 7.5k and 15k (with 15k being double).

Anyway the hashrate only matters to miners, since it affects difficulty. As for the fees, remember that "recommended" is not "required". You can always force your wallet to use 1 Sat/B, it'll just take a bit longer than usual (one day rather than one hour, for example). Due to the unfortunate flood of wallets that attempt to guess a "recommended fee", a feedback effect occurs and its simple to manipulate those fool wallets into crazy fees (since they all start competing with each other after some whale or exchange moves some funds to their cold wallet or such).

[Yamifoud]

https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-hashrate-second-largest-difficulty-drop/

Hashrate down 45% according to that article and the second-largest drop since 2011. This will be probably signifies something and I think this is also a reason why withdrawal fees are so high. This dropping will be considered as a big factor that could affect the miner's revenue.
If there is another way to hold miners leaving their position, I think this could be helpful.

[Twentyonepaylots]

https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-hashrate-second-largest-difficulty-drop/

Hashrate down 45% according to that article and the second-largest drop since 2011. This will be probably signifies something and I think this is also a reason why withdrawal fees are so high. This dropping will be considered as a big factor that could affect the miner's revenue.
If there is another way to hold miners leaving their position, I think this could be helpful.

Yeah, no wonder why my pocket feels so heavy with the transaction fees I got too excited to withdraw some of my funds without calculating the fees, embarrassing. This is a common event after the halving though hash rate is always declining because some miners are disconnecting to mining bitcoin while others are connecting to other alternative coin mining. You can also see the hash rates of some other coins that is increasing, possibly due to switching of some miners.

[suzanne5223]

Before now it has been predicted that a lot of miners will leave bitcoin but it will only reduce the supply level of bitcoin market while demand will rise and if this situation really happens then will see a surge in price of the bitcoin market. However, this is just a prediction though.

[khaled0111]

As you can see above, hashrate is decreasing after the halving as expected. Due to that, the fee has increased and according to bitcoinfees, the recommded fee is 150 sat / per byte and there are a lot of unconfirmed transaction.

I don't believe there is a direct relationship between the decrease in hashrates and the increase in fees!
Fees increase when the network become clogged by unconfirmed transactions which is, as I said, not related in any way to the hashrates drop.
Miners can not force users to pay higher fees, all they can do is to prioritize transactions which have higher fee-rates.

After halving, we can say some miners have left. What do you think? More miners will leave too? And what if hashrate drop more?

Hard to say. It depends on how much profitable mining Bitcoin will become compared to mining other coins.

[Ifra24]

After halving, we can say some miners have left. What do you think? More miners will leave too? And what if hashrate drop more?

Miners stop mining because costs and prices do not provide benefits. If the price of BTC does not rise, everything will go bankrupt. If the hasrate goes down, it means that many miners are leaving, then I think only the big miners can survive if the price doesn't go up soon, closing the mining costs, But we know that miners play an important role in controlling prices in addition to large fund owners.

[squatter]

The hash rate is declining but the drop has been fairly modest. Difficulty is still technically slated to increase in 4 days, although it will probably become a modest (1-2%) decrease by then. It may take 2 difficulty adjustments for the fee market to normalize, but I see no cause for concern.

I wouldn't call 109 blocks in 24 hours modest.
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks?q=time(2020-05-13%2007:25:23..2020-05-14%2007:25:23)
Even with the price increase, we're still doing
Blocks:131
Avg. time between blocks: 659.54 s.

10% (now), that's not modest.

We're talking about two different things. I was referring to the difficulty adjustment in 2.5 days. If the adjustment happened today, it would be -1.21%. Indeed, it looks like the difficulty drop may be larger than the 1-2% I expected. 10% would be a stretch, though.

[Touheedkhan786]

Due to Bitcoin Halving Miner got effect badly but for Bitcoin and Traders like me its important most of the miners are not Hodlers (They sell bitcoins when they receive rewards)
So it's Bad for some guys and also good for some Guys
But I think new miners will not enter now in bitcoin they will try different Coins to mine

[stompix]

~

We're talking about two different things. I was referring to the difficulty adjustment in 2.5 days. If the adjustment happened today, it would be -1.21%. Indeed, it looks like the difficulty drop may be larger than the 1-2% I expected. 10% would be a stretch, though.

Yeah, got it.
But, it's not going to be 1-2, it's going to be either 4-5% if there is no price increase.
-4.2% on https://diff.cryptothis.com/
-5 on https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/
100 blocks in the last 24h, out of 144 expected.

NO. The fees and the hash rate are unrelated. Fees go up and down according to network traffic, this is separate to the network hashrate.

And when the hash rate drops, so do the blocks mined, so does the capacity of the chain, and there you have it, high fees.
They might not be related but one can cause the other to increase.

As I was saying, last 24h the network worked at almost 2/3 of the capacity.
Thank god that is weekend and the retarget will probably happen on Tuesday evening.

[bL4nkcode]

But it's not as low as 3 months or a year ago. So keep the positivity, price isn't declining also, nothing to worry as of now though.

[pooya87]

now that some time has passed the hashrate and difficulty charts look very interesting in my opinion. when this topic was started the has hashrate had a little drop which continued dropping until after the difficulty adjustment (difficulty went down due to the reduced hashrate) but then interestingly enough it started going back up with the same speed as it went down and right now it is more or less the same hashrate as before the OP meaning around 110 EH/s.

this can not be because of price because in this time frame the price has been more or less stable inside $9k range with the average around $9500. so there is no increased incentive for more miners yet.

the two yellow circles are the difficulty adjustment dates when the difficulty went down on both occasions

[Bttzed03]

@pooya87 What does the chart tells us? It looks like some miners only took a 'little break' and came back after difficulty was adjusted. Are we going to expect another adjustment soon?

[crwth]

Maybe it is the current situation that we are in now or some personal issues around themselves. But thinking about their investments towards the mining gears that they have, they could have changed into another coin and mine more than what they could if it is compared to bitcoin right now. At the end of the day, it is getting a profit is the priority over all.

[pooya87]

@pooya87 What does the chart tells us? It looks like some miners only took a 'little break' and came back after difficulty was adjusted. Are we going to expect another adjustment soon?

i shared it here to see what others think.
the charts shows us that hashrate didn't really change in the long term even with stable price. miners didn't actually leave or even if some did they were replaced by other miners right away since we are now pretty much the same place as a month ago.
maybe this was a panic move or it is possible that it was an attempt to manipulate difficulty although i don't think the results were significant enough to justify this theory.

[stompix]

this can not be because of price because in this time frame the price has been more or less stable inside $9k range with the average around $9500. so there is no increased incentive for more miners yet.

Bitmain shipped their gear, there a lot of people confirming arrivals
S9s have 0.09j/Gh S19s are at 0.03j/Gh, basically, you could drop 10EH from the chain with old gear and replace it with 30EH at same power cost.
The hashrate might go up by 20EH but the revenue/costs/profits will stay the same.

they could have changed into another coin and mine more than what they could if it is compared to bitcoin right now. At the end of the day, it is getting a profit is the priority over all.

BCH and BSV have around 3-4% of the Bitcoin hashrate, just 1% of the miners switching to them would make those coins unprofitable for anyone.
Rewards per day:
BSV ($167,069.88 USD)
BCH ($223,610.88 USD)
drumrolls..
BTC ($10,283,158.18 USD)