Lets say i get a message that there is a transaction of 100BTC to the exchange i'm currently using.
I can assume that it can affect the trade in some way ,
can look for changes in this amount of BTC in the order book but is this info can tell me somehow if the intention of the whale is to pull up or down the market ?
How reliable this type of data can be ?
Same scenario can be of leaving the exchange..
We cannot have a solid scenario for your question. If a whale enters into an exchange, we all usually expect a down fall but what if the owners of exchanges moving same level of big amount of BTC for their business purposes? So, we cannot assume all whales movements will be leading to massive sell-off. I usually do not follow any such tips for my trading because I am well aware of how bitcoin markets will react and bounce back to normal even a heavy sell-off happens.
Over the time, I guess we cannot identify and follow whales as they may hide behind multiple small amounted transactions hence now itself we should start practicing a trading habits without following them. Anticipating the future changes and enhancing ourselves based on future demands will definitely help us to stay competitive.