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Author Topic: Fed concerns about US economy are a reminder that economy may never be the same  (Read 184 times)
conhela
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May 24, 2020, 12:23:33 AM
 #21

In it’s last meeting held on April 28th Fed officials unanimously agreed that US economy will never be the same if a second wave of covid19 virus attack took place, and they also pledged to do all they can to keep the economy stable during such uncertain times.

Furthermore what worries me is the massive wave of unemployment that the Fed believes will come if things don’t get better soon, and if the unemployment wave strikes US now then in my personal opinion US citizens will witness a repeat of the dark days they saw in 2008.

What do you’ll think of Fed’s concern?, and how many of you’ll believe that we will witness those dark days of 2008 again?.

Sources:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/business/coronavirus-economy-stock-market.html#link-26af4971

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007–08

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/a-guide-to-the-financial-crisis--10-years-later/2018/09/10/114b76ba-af10-11e8-a20b-5f4f84429666_story.html

https://www.c[Suspicious link removed]m/2020/05/19/unemployment-today-vs-the-great-depression-how-do-the-eras-compare.html

But the US unemlployment rate is already at an historical high... I'm not from the US but I can't imagine it going any good if unemployment keeps going up. I'd wage it'd be a worse 2008. Let's see what other bitcoin-like tech surfaces out of the brilliant minds that will inevitably be affected by this.
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May 24, 2020, 01:04:35 AM
 #22

It is true that the US economy is in ruins, the pandemic corona is making the number of unemployed in America continue to grow.
But I am sure President Donald Trump will not stand still seeing the condition of the American economy is getting worse. Donald Trump
is a reliable businessman, who is accustomed to dealing with various kinds of problem conditions in the economic sector. Moreover,
America is one of the strongest countries in the world, so I'm sure America can rise from adversity.
Latviand
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May 24, 2020, 05:56:23 AM
 #23

The economy of USA is not looking good in the long run especially now that the vaccine will not be available until next year. In addition, USA is the new epicenter of this pandemic which has a total of 1.6 million confirmed cases. Even their economic structure is highly developed, world's largest economy and net wealth they will crumble sustaining their citizens for a long time, now that the population is USA is huge. What's worst is the unemployment rate in the USA, last time I checked around March there was already 30 million unemployed people in the USA, and these workers will have to file their job benefits. Now the question is how would they sustain this all??

We all know that every country affected is really having a hard time to recover from the damages that this pandemic brought to us. Most especially those people who are in a third world country that don't have enough budget to sustain the lives of its people. US is a big country and we all know that their economy is experiencing crash, especially the stock market.

We are all unprepared that there is a virus that existing to kill human easily. Chinese should warned us immediately so that we can prepare but the thing is they don't do it like that. They wait for the virus to spread first before they can alert us about that. In contrast with the US economy, China has a stable stock market because many of our goods came from them.
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May 24, 2020, 06:19:01 AM
 #24

Dark days are already here. The economy needs to be reformed a lot, so it isn't so bad that the economy won't be the same.
bits4books
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May 24, 2020, 07:06:40 AM
 #25

Even if 2008 comes again - the way out of it will be as brilliant as it was in those days. A huge problem of the market is a bubble system of derivatives and other synthetics that already exceeds the money supply a couple of times. I think that if there wiil be a "new 2008" it is more good than bad. It's time to dump this ballast and money out of the air that too adventurous but not very smart guys are trying (and some manage) to get out of the air.

2008 is nothing. I think that's partly what all this optimism in the market is all about. The market believes 2008 is the worst case scenario, so investors are already scrambling to position themselves for the recovery.

But what if this time is different? What if this is 1929, not 2008? Are you prepared for the economic pain that comes along with a large scale debt deflation collapse? It would affect every corner of the economy. Corporate debt defaults, mortgage (foreclosure) and rent (eviction) defaults, bank failures. This would kill liquidity to small businesses and also tax revenues, social services.

In that scenario, I don't know what the prognosis is for BTC or gold. In the case of deflation/depression, they could perform poorly for some time in a liquidity shock since globally, debtors need USD to service their debts. It may be difficult to hedge, and virtually everybody in all markets may come out losers.

And maybe it's not so bad? So many years of continuous growth-did anyone think that these years will remain "unpunished"? The higher humanity soars the more painfully it falls but each time it rises. And this time is certainly no exception
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May 24, 2020, 10:49:41 PM
 #26

Even if 2008 comes again - the way out of it will be as brilliant as it was in those days.

2008 is nothing. I think that's partly what all this optimism in the market is all about. The market believes 2008 is the worst case scenario, so investors are already scrambling to position themselves for the recovery.

But what if this time is different? What if this is 1929, not 2008? Are you prepared for the economic pain that comes along with a large scale debt deflation collapse? It would affect every corner of the economy. Corporate debt defaults, mortgage (foreclosure) and rent (eviction) defaults, bank failures. This would kill liquidity to small businesses and also tax revenues, social services.

In that scenario, I don't know what the prognosis is for BTC or gold. In the case of deflation/depression, they could perform poorly for some time in a liquidity shock since globally, debtors need USD to service their debts. It may be difficult to hedge, and virtually everybody in all markets may come out losers.

And maybe it's not so bad? So many years of continuous growth-did anyone think that these years will remain "unpunished"? The higher humanity soars the more painfully it falls but each time it rises. And this time is certainly no exception

Just a comment on the attitude of "even if 2008 comes again." 2008 was just a 1-2 year recession. Annual average unemployment in the US was 5.8% that year. The CBO is projecting double that in 2020-2021, and I think a lot of metrics are now showing those projections to be optimistic. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335

So it seems we should anticipate something significantly worse than 2008, maybe even significantly worse than a recession. Most of us have no idea what a world with 25% unemployment looks like. That was the Great Depression.

The people I have known who lived through the 30s were very scarred by it. I really hope that's not what it comes to. A multi-generational bubble popping now? Fuck, that's a scary proposition. It's hard to imagine the scope of suffering and death that would cause. We're the guinea pigs in a test of Malthusian theory!

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May 25, 2020, 04:37:03 AM
 #27

The economy may never be the same, because right now there are events that the average person does not even suspect. The economy and our future depend on the outcome of these events.
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May 25, 2020, 09:08:11 AM
 #28

I'm pretty sure that even now, the economy of the US isn't the same already. Let's not even mention the effects oof Covid, even before it happened, the US economy was already showing signs of destroying itself. The Covid effects only served to hasten it imo. Let's not even mention how Trump's movements are to say the least, very inefficient. The world is changing in a fast pace right now since this is the time where you could see business come and go quickly. If we take into account the economy of the US, you could possibly see a huge impact on the current business momentum of a lot of small businesses, even big companies may be hit quite largely.

Even if 2008 comes again - the way out of it will be as brilliant as it was in those days. A huge problem of the market is a bubble system of derivatives and other synthetics that already exceeds the money supply a couple of times. I think that if there wiil be a "new 2008" it is more good than bad. It's time to dump this ballast and money out of the air that too adventurous but not very smart guys are trying (and some manage) to get out of the air.

That's already looking at it from an optimistic side. imo, even if it had the same similar effect as 2008, the negative effects it could still bring would most probably be huge.

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Yatsan
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May 25, 2020, 05:42:18 PM
 #29

I'm pretty sure that even now, the economy of the US isn't the same already. Let's not even mention the effects oof Covid, even before it happened, the US economy was already showing signs of destroying itself. The Covid effects only served to hasten it imo. Let's not even mention how Trump's movements are to say the least, very inefficient. The world is changing in a fast pace right now since this is the time where you could see business come and go quickly. If we take into account the economy of the US, you could possibly see a huge impact on the current business momentum of a lot of small businesses, even big companies may be hit quite largely.
This is a test on how developed the economy of America is, few years ago, they keep on telling that the economy of America is a vague subject for a downfall coz it is developed but what that "developed" really means? coz if you compare America's economy with other poor nations we can totally say that it is more developed but I hope they don't put other's economic status as the basis on their so called "developed" coz the pandemic is unmasking it right now.

Even if 2008 comes again - the way out of it will be as brilliant as it was in those days. A huge problem of the market is a bubble system of derivatives and other synthetics that already exceeds the money supply a couple of times. I think that if there wiil be a "new 2008" it is more good than bad. It's time to dump this ballast and money out of the air that too adventurous but not very smart guys are trying (and some manage) to get out of the air.

That's already looking at it from an optimistic side. imo, even if it had the same similar effect as 2008, the negative effects it could still bring would most probably be huge.
That is what most likely to happen to America right now, the America is on verge of the recession and if that happens China will take most of its world status.





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