There's no way this is a "V-shaped" recovery... right?

[Alert31]

Whatever shape it is,the important is the economy will recover from this pandemic caused but the until now the situation is very difficult to predict a rapid recovery. All are affected even in cryptomarket. Many sold their tokens just to survive but i believed that it will not bring down the cryptomarket. Sooner or later the market will go back to normal in any way if their will be a covid medicine. For now let us track the movement of crypto.

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[abhiseshakana]

A lot of what the economy is waiting for is a vaccine. We really can't get going until we have a vaccine.

What do we think about Faucci stating that there could be a vaccine by December?
 

One intelligence observer has the view that Anthony Fauci (Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) and Trump's staff in completing the Coronavirus Task Force is an expert who has been unfortunate across six American presidents and also the person behind SARS and AIDS. It was Fauci who started the biological warfare scenario from the Americans. It was found that COVID -19 does have an enrichment element wherein the HIV element attacks the immunity of the victim and is hundreds of times stronger than SARS.

Fauci is part of a conspiracy, China and WHO are false information throughout the world by saying the coronavirus spreads only from animal to human, not human to human. So that many countries are not aware of and underestimate the power of spread and killing power COVID-19.

The world is a victim of a WHO conspiracy, China, the global pharmaceutical elite, and the democratic party. Vaccine sales are big business for this gang. Steve Bannon provided information about WHO's a practice which finally ended with Trump's anger and officially cut off cooperation with WHO.

[fiulpro]

See I do think if you are considering talking about the stock markets I should list that right now in my country and maybe in many others too the stock market is actually very down . Market manipulation is something that I do think might happen right now, on a much larger scale. Since the mall investors are out of the business , it is just the whales and the big investors who are actually controlling it, there will be a time where due to no jobs and such people will have to cash out . That will not stop the rich one's from making profits out of the pandemic.

But Due to low price right now many people are buying and waiting for this crisis to be over soon so that soon enough what they brought could actually be sold at a far better price.

Now , that would certainly indicate future profits are due .

Plus as I see , many people are talking about vaccine and how it will come by December and so . See there is no hard and fast rule here , there are companies and universities which are giving promising news but one cannot be sure of it . At the same time people are undergoing human trail so that the effectiveness can be judged correctly.

One would still have to wait for a year or so to make this vaccination program work . It won't happen overnight. It took decades to eradicate polio and pox . Plus we can still see 1-2 cases here and there .

Chances are Corona virus will be like them.. some people might have it , some might now. It might even become a seasonal thing . Vaccination does not mean we will be able to be done with it in a matter of months or even years .

[bits4books]

Quite funny by the way the situation turned out. All this time, crypto-anarchists and other adherents of decentralization shouted that cryptocurrencies will never depend on the "fiat" market and that we are on our own - but now we see that this is fundamentally not the case. It would be interesting to hear what these adepts have to say now.

[Barnabe]

Quite funny by the way the situation turned out. All this time, crypto-anarchists and other adherents of decentralization shouted that cryptocurrencies will never depend on the "fiat" market and that we are on our own - but now we see that this is fundamentally not the case. It would be interesting to hear what these adepts have to say now.

Since cryptos are a means of storing value they will always have a correlation with the real world (either positive or negative). No correlation would be possible if the ecosystem and goods we could buy are entirely uncorrelated with the real world. (Maybe MMORPG currencies could react this way, but I wouldn't store money by buying gold in WoW :p )

[exstasie]

Quite funny by the way the situation turned out. All this time, crypto-anarchists and other adherents of decentralization shouted that cryptocurrencies will never depend on the "fiat" market and that we are on our own - but now we see that this is fundamentally not the case. It would be interesting to hear what these adepts have to say now.

BTC did crash with equities and most other assets in March, that's true.

On the other hand, BTC also recovered 100% of those losses. Gold as well. But real estate funds, stocks? Not even close. Maybe this is a divergence worth paying attention to.

[Barnabe]

Quite funny by the way the situation turned out. All this time, crypto-anarchists and other adherents of decentralization shouted that cryptocurrencies will never depend on the "fiat" market and that we are on our own - but now we see that this is fundamentally not the case. It would be interesting to hear what these adepts have to say now.

BTC did crash with equities and most other assets in March, that's true.

On the other hand, BTC also recovered 100% of those losses. Gold as well. But real estate funds, stocks? Not even close. Maybe this is a divergence worth paying attention to.

Cryptos are also a very "early investor" type of asset while the stocks and real estate are very mature... BTC recovered its loses, but it also is a big rollercoaster, not sure if this comparison is fair...

[abhiseshakana]

Quite funny by the way the situation turned out. All this time, crypto-anarchists and other adherents of decentralization shouted that cryptocurrencies will never depend on the "fiat" market and that we are on our own - but now we see that this is fundamentally not the case. It would be interesting to hear what these adepts have to say now.

Corona pandemic is indeed the first test for bitcoin but until now bitcoin is still an attractive choice. Because pandemics attack economic subjects so bitcoin is associated with fiat fall, like a machine that needs an operator to run, but the operator is absent so the machine is silent. But the moment of falling prices of bitcoin three months ago was used by many people to buy bitcoin.

When the beginning of the pandemic spread, corona also caused panic in crypto assets. And indeed there are many selling actions carried out by a group of people who need cash to shop and save their businesses, the impact of the global economy continues to worsen. The condition of the pandemic that never ended made the various investment sectors fluctuate and completely uncertain.

But compared to shares the price movement of bitcoin in the middle of a pandemic is still interesting. Although from February 15 to March 14, the price of bitcoin dropped dramatically, but after that, the price tends to rise. Market confidence in bitcoin investment is the sentiment that drives the rise in bitcoin prices besides the halving moment will increase bitcoin prices in the long run and gradually.

[btc_love]

If there is a crisis or any incident that no one could have predicted, and the governments of all countries decide to use cryptocurrency, then incredible changes will occur in everything, including the price of cryptocurrencies.

I mean that we cannot know for sure. Tomorrow everything can change.

[mindrust]

Quite funny by the way the situation turned out. All this time, crypto-anarchists and other adherents of decentralization shouted that cryptocurrencies will never depend on the "fiat" market and that we are on our own - but now we see that this is fundamentally not the case. It would be interesting to hear what these adepts have to say now.

Crypto is just another form of stock.

It doesn't mean it has zero usecases.

I like the idea of the permissionless network. You know no matter what happens your money will go through.

It is a great tool if you do freelancer work and collect your money when banks&paypal isn't available to you or simply don't want to use them.

Keeping too much value in it is very tiring on the other hand. Not everybody can carry a burden like that.

[Febo]

I dont understand that people that know that pandemic will last for a year preach about V shape recovery. They are lying directly to camera. Today politicians can simply say whatever they want. No one call them on their wrong predictions anymore.

[Robust Crypto]

Perhaps a little off topic as not directly crypto but think it's important anyways to discuss the overall economy and how it may affect crypto.

So as those in tune with the stock market know, essentially we saw a high of 3340~ (SP500), a low of 2170~ (March 17th I believe) and then currently we are flirting with the 3000 barriers today (looks like either this week or next week it might break it).

The economist in me is screaming unprecedented debt, balance sheets, potential negative interest rates, unemployment claims, etc.

But unlimited QE, buying of junk bonds and equity, seems to have created this huge divergence between the usually rational market and it's underlying economy.

I'm young so this is my first real depression/recession I've experienced and really understood what's going on but those that were around for the 2008 GFC or Dec 2018 V shape recovery - does this feel different? What are your thoughts?

How has your asset allocation of stock,bonds, PMs, crypto changed? Are you more cash heavy right now? When do you think we'll the next leg down?

I'm more in Crypto

[exstasie]

If there is a crisis or any incident that no one could have predicted, and the governments of all countries decide to use cryptocurrency, then incredible changes will occur in everything, including the price of cryptocurrencies.

Consider what it would take for governments to uniformly start using cryptocurrency. Probably a total collapse of fiat currencies, which would not be orderly. If that happens, there will turbulent circumstances for quite some time, years or even decades. Even if value eventually pours into cryptocurrencies, prices could be crushed in shorter term liquidity crises, just like they were this past March.

[MCobian]

I feel this CONVID19 pandemic cannot be resolved in the near future, therefore I do not believe in "V-shaped" recovery. We do not wait
until the crisis is over for investment, do it quickly if you still have cold money for investment. Because a little late we will lose the moment
to be able to get cheap prices for both stock and crypto investments. Based on my analysis many people will soon adapt to coexist with
CONVID19, if that has happened then the economy will rise soon.

[leeboy]

It could be a real v sheped recovery. Gov is spending a lot of money for recovery, printing a lot of money. All of this keep wall street from falling. They are trading not a real economy situation. They are trading recovery already

[mtwelve]

Are we near the top..? Considering I myself now am FOMOin'g and want to get into some calls just to make some money.

Have you seen the moves being made lately? AAL up 60%, airliners just SOARING - it's a weird world when Buffet sold the bottom.

[conhela]

I expect we'll be having up and down movements over the next weeks, while remaining in the downrange. The general sentiments are gloomy, the effect of the lockdown visible in many economies and with an end to the pandemic not yet in sight, so I won't be expecting a quick recovery.

How has your asset allocation of stock,bonds, PMs, crypto changed? Are you more cash heavy right now?

I expect a heavy push of cash into the markets to encourage spending and revive economies, possibly leading to a inflation, this would likely lessen the weight of fiat.

But wouldn't, then, this mean that bitcoin's price in said FIATs will increase in comparison, the purchasing power might stay the same but it would go up because bitcoin is not dependent on a single FIAT currency, am I reading that right?

[bitgolden]

Instead of a V shaped recover, it is going to be more like W shaped recovery. And now really even a W shape more like WWWWWWW shape because we are going to feel the hurt of all this pandemic over and over again, there will be results and consequences of it for a long time.

Just as we feel a bit better there will be some more companies bankrupting because they couldn't handle all the debt and the recovery wasn't fast enough for them so we will all suck for a while in economy, after that we will start to recover again and there will some more companies that goes down because they handled the first going down but the second one killed them, so we will start to recover after t... well it will continue like this for a loong time, I say at least 2 years, we will only recover after a long period of nothingness.

[mtwelve]

Instead of a V shaped recover, it is going to be more like W shaped recovery. And now really even a W shape more like WWWWWWW shape because we are going to feel the hurt of all this pandemic over and over again, there will be results and consequences of it for a long time.

Just as we feel a bit better there will be some more companies bankrupting because they couldn't handle all the debt and the recovery wasn't fast enough for them so we will all suck for a while in economy, after that we will start to recover again and there will some more companies that goes down because they handled the first going down but the second one killed them, so we will start to recover after t... well it will continue like this for a loong time, I say at least 2 years, we will only recover after a long period of nothingness.

This is what I was really thinking... but this way past the 68% fib retracement level - we hit that around 280 if I'm not incorrect... this is literally just hysteria...

[figmentofmyass]

Instead of a V shaped recover, it is going to be more like W shaped recovery. And now really even a W shape more like WWWWWWW shape because we are going to feel the hurt of all this pandemic over and over again, there will be results and consequences of it for a long time.

This is what I was really thinking... but this way past the 68% fib retracement level - we hit that around 280 if I'm not incorrect... this is literally just hysteria...

i can't believe the s&p500 is back in the 3100s. less than 10% from the ATH now, insanity!

bears are getting destroyed. RIP shorters.

Have you seen the moves being made lately? AAL up 60%, airliners just SOARING - it's a weird world when Buffet sold the bottom.

i dunno what to make of it. it feels super irrational. even if the jobs numbers improved last month, we're still at high double digit unemployment with stimulus measures expiring soon. i don't see the market pricing in the future drops in earnings. when will they?

the coronavirus has been overshadowed in the news cycle by the george floyd protests, but cases are back on the rise in both the USA and worldwide. the protests could speed things up in that department too. the threat of a second wave still looms heavy and the market hasn't priced it in IMO.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/coronavirus-cdc-is-worried-americans-arent-following-its-advice-as-us-cases-continue-to-rise.html
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/05/world/coronavirus-cases-rising-faster-intl/index.html