Double bottom @ 3.1k or lower low @ 2k?

[exstasie]

I saw famous analyst masterluc predicted a lower low around 2k if the downtrend continues   unfortunately looks possible as well.

He also said the bear case is invalidated if $10.5K is broken. Keep that in mind if the weekly trend does not break down soon. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/qNy2lBH5-Bearish-outcome-of-previous-ideas/

What is the most likely scenario, and why? 

I still like my multi-year bullish triangle scenario:

Why? Because we are still stuck in a contracting range after 2.5 years. Bulls seem too bullish, bears seem too bearish. Everyone seems to think it's either moon or doom. As a believer in maximum pain theory, that leads me to believe both bulls and bears need to be squeezed. Structurally given the contracting range, that means squeezing bulls first and bears second.

I still like the $5,000s and $6,000s as downside targets. Same as Masterluc, I will likely discard this scenario (or at least give it low chances) if $10.5K is broken.

I don't see a strong case for $3.1K. If the market goes there, I would strongly bet on lower lows and a more prolonged downtrend. After this length of time (with bulls building positions much higher for 1.5 years) a double bottom there is very unlikely.

[Yamifoud]

It is possible as it happens in the past year but seeing the market today, I doubt that it would happen, not this year. The halving effect will be shown later and that big possibility that we even soaring high than for the current market position. That pretty obvious that fewer chances we experience bearish rather than to be bullish.
The possible case scenario that will be showing this time is from $9k to $11k (as we break the $10k resistance), not that $9k to $3.1k.
I feel that some whales would like to manipulate some minds.

 

[carlfebz2]

We may see a dump before the big bull run but I don’t think it will drop to $3k level again since there’s a lot of good support volume for us not to drop like this again. $3k is the lowest price we’ve ever seen since the bullish scenario of bitcoin and we are able to bounce back on that level and I’m sure once we reach another peak, $3k will no longer the lowest price since there will be a new support level to back-up bitcoin.

Still remember when we are still hovering between 9k-10k price back in the past? on where people are already speculating that we wont head back down that low when someone do made out some analysis that we might be heading back to that point?

Im not saying that theres someone can make out precise prediction but we really did head back to that price on least expected by the entire bitcoin community or that was really a shocking thing that happened.Some do even speculate that we might able to go in 1k price which is a horrible thing
to happen imho.

So therefore we cant conclude that it wont happen because crashing to 3k back isnt really that far of.

[Oasisman]

We may see a dump before the big bull run but I don’t think it will drop to $3k level again since there’s a lot of good support volume for us not to drop like this again. $3k is the lowest price we’ve ever seen since the bullish scenario of bitcoin and we are able to bounce back on that level and I’m sure once we reach another peak, $3k will no longer the lowest price since there will be a new support level to back-up bitcoin.

Everything is possible. Bitcoin has been showing some signs of not being able to break through the $10,000 level and now we're back at $8,900. As we all noticed, everybody has been complaining about the high transaction fees. Specially now that miners are still in difficulty adjustment period, some are spending their Bitcoin to cover the expenses of their hardware upgrades.
I'm afraid, there will be a decrease of Bitcoin movements due to the high transaction fees, this might be one of the reason for Bitcoin to decrease it's value.

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

Both scenarios look possible. I would prefer to see a double bottom at 3.1k area (same low an January 2019). That would be very good for a trend reversal in the long term (2022 and beyond). I would finally become a bull!

My optimistic mindset make it hard for me to agree to any of your predicted price. I understand the market hasn't been bullish recently but that doesn't mean if it does dump it'll fall down that massive to all time low. The 4k-5k price margin is quite reasonable and would be my lowest prediction although I do understand the market has all the elements to surprise us at anytime.

We're just weeks into the post halving era so some might say it'll too early to start predicting the reaction of the market which is quite true to some extent but since the market has a way of reacting based on previous occurance I'll still believe some correction is bond to happen but not as low as what the OP has predicted.

[fabiorem]

$2k is the most likely scenario, due to bullish expectatives in relation to the halving. The bulltard cultist works for the bear.

People ignore that in the previous halving, the derivatives markets didnt have a influence in the bitcoin price. You didnt have Bitmex liquidation engine gambling against bitcoin. Derivatives, futures, paper speculation, its always there to destroy "safe haven" assets. It happened with gold and silver.

Then you have the plandemic to worsen the situation, as bitcoin is correlated with the stock markets, so anything which affects the fiat system, will affect bitcoin as well. And, in the case of the plandemic, there will be one each year, until 2030.

$2k is likely to happen in the second half of this year, with a low of $700-900 by the end of the year.
Adoption of bitcoin is unlikely to happen, as on-chain transactions are extremely slow this year, taking up to one hour for the first confirmation, even with the highest fee.

My fear is if ethereum or ripple takes the place of bitcoin. This would likely to make them targets for the liquidation engine. I would prefer these assets to unpeg from bitcoin price, and take their own path, but without becoming the "first coin" in terms of market cap. A modest development is the best course of action for these projects, without making too much hype.

[matchi2011]

We may see a dump before the big bull run but I don’t think it will drop to $3k level again since there’s a lot of good support volume for us not to drop like this again. $3k is the lowest price we’ve ever seen since the bullish scenario of bitcoin and we are able to bounce back on that level and I’m sure once we reach another peak, $3k will no longer the lowest price since there will be a new support level to back-up bitcoin.

Everything is possible. Bitcoin has been showing some signs of not being able to break through the $10,000 level and now we're back at $8,900. As we all noticed, everybody has been complaining about the high transaction fees. Specially now that miners are still in difficulty adjustment period, some are spending their Bitcoin to cover the expenses of their hardware upgrades.
I'm afraid, there will be a decrease of Bitcoin movements due to the high transaction fees, this might be one of the reason for Bitcoin to decrease it's value.

It can possibly turn those end users to choose other alternatives since the transaction fees for now is really affecting them, most to those who are trying to use this system for their business, if they are going to pay high fees the chance that they will change system will be the best options to continue business. Adjustment period can't be avoided but hopefully it won't pushed users away.

[lumeire]

Hi,

Both scenarios look possible. I would prefer to see a double bottom at 3.1k area (same low an January 2019). That would be very good for a trend reversal in the long term (2022 and beyond). I would finally become a bull!

I saw famous analyst masterluc predicted a lower low around 2k if the downtrend continues   unfortunately looks possible as well.

What is the most likely scenario, and why?



 

I guess both of these scenarios are close to impossible the bitcoins price is having huge support at many price points which will be hard to break, so we can see a small dump in the recent times but bitcoins going back again to the Price of 3.1k which was last seen in the start of the year 2019 is pretty close to impossible unless there isn't any bad news related to Crypto or the world economy.

[STT]

I agree 10.5k is the cliff edge for the bears.   BTC never has definite absolutes, I find it tricks us multiple times so I try to absorb the character and progress more then just 1 signal or event.    Right now its fair to expect some pullback but its still pretty slow progress and the longer it lasts at this level the more possible we go challenge 10.5k area again.



Its just dragging itself along the line rather then confirming below any particular measure and then moving in a proper way.   I'm not especially positive till we get back above 9200, its not a big ask but seems a distance too far for this moment.

[RealMalatesta]

If you guys want to believe what you want to believe, nobody could stop you, if you want to think that 3k is possible and even 2k is likely if we go there, go ahead and think like that. But, if you are holding even a single satoshi of bitcoin on your wallet while saying this you are being two faced and should be ashamed.

Bitcoin could always drop or go up, that is a thing about bitcoin that people haven't really forgotten, if you see bitcoin at 10k, that means it could be 5k or 15k tomorrow and technically it could be 1 dollar or 1 million dollar as well but that part is unlikely. Yet when we are talking about prices that we haven't hit in over 4 years, you are making it a bit more than what it suppose to be. Why would it suddenly drop to a 4 year low price all of a sudden when we are just beyond halving now and it is easier to increase the price?

[adaseb]

Bitcoin historically doesn't do long term double bottoms very well. The most accurate indicator is the 200 WMA which we managed to close AT and later on ABOVE back in March. I don't think we will get a double bottom at $3100, it will be more like a triple bottom. If it goes to that area, I see it breaking and bitcoin never coming back to ATH.

With the halving and all this fed printing I dont see it ever going that low. Sure we might get $6K or so but never $2K or even $3.1K.

Only reason we got $3350 or so was due to the massive liquidations that bitmex couldn't properly liquidate. If there was more liquidity that day we most likely would of never closed below $5500.

Those who longed <$4000, bought the bottom.

[7788bitcoin]

My optimistic mindset make it hard for me to agree to any of your predicted price. I understand the market hasn't been bullish recently but that doesn't mean if it does dump it'll fall down that massive to all time low. The 4k-5k price margin is quite reasonable and would be my lowest prediction although I do understand the market has all the elements to surprise us at anytime.

The price of bitcoin had a resistance above $10k and if we look at the bottom after the last rally then it is a really good valuation considering it went down to $3k levels.

Since everyone is looking for a good correction before the big rally, we might not see the levels what is mentioned by the OP, but a couple of thousand dollars before the rally is a probable valuation.

We're just weeks into the post halving era so some might say it'll too early to start predicting the reaction of the market which is quite true to some extent but since the market has a way of reacting based on previous occurance I'll still believe some correction is bond to happen but not as low as what the OP has predicted.

We might see corrections but the only worry for me is that the market situation is not the same like we used to have in the past, there is a pandemic situation that is threatening the financial sector and with all these economic struggles i am not sure we will repeat the same rallies we used to see in the past.

[exstasie]

$2k is the most likely scenario, due to bullish expectatives in relation to the halving. The bulltard cultist works for the bear.

I actually agree regarding how sentiment cycles work. The halving was a "sell the news" event, exactly the same as 2016. However, I think you're mistaken that this necessitates new multi-year lows. It didn't in 2016. There was a brutal 40% crash around the halving in 2016 but a new larger bear market never developed, and BTC was entering a bubble by year end. The same could be happening now.

My opinion on current sentiment is that both bulls and bears are currently greedy and need to be squeezed out. Maximum pain. Coming off a mid-term uptrend, my belief is that bulls will be squeezed first (40% drop like 2016 would mean $6K) and then bears will be squeezed as we enter a new long term bull market or bubble.

There is still a small chance we see sub-$3K again but I think it's much more likely all higher lows from here on out.

[adaseb]

$2k is the most likely scenario, due to bullish expectatives in relation to the halving. The bulltard cultist works for the bear.

I actually agree regarding how sentiment cycles work. The halving was a "sell the news" event, exactly the same as 2016. However, I think you're mistaken that this necessitates new multi-year lows. It didn't in 2016. There was a brutal 40% crash around the halving in 2016 but a new larger bear market never developed, and BTC was entering a bubble by year end. The same could be happening now.

My opinion on current sentiment is that both bulls and bears are currently greedy and need to be squeezed out. Maximum pain. Coming off a mid-term uptrend, my belief is that bulls will be squeezed first (40% drop like 2016 would mean $6K) and then bears will be squeezed as we enter a new long term bull market or bubble.

There is still a small chance we see sub-$3K again but I think it's much more likely all higher lows from here on out.

I am pretty sure most bears at least long term bears took profit when BTC hit $3500 or so. Hence why you are seeing record number of BTC withdraws from exchanges right now. Most bears sold at >$10K or so, covered $3-4K and withdrew to cold storage. So if we break $10.5K, I don't think there will be a short squeeze.

Same with bulls, the long squeeze at $3.5K took out most people who longed at $10K in February, they are most likely out of the markets. And the move from $3.5K+ was quick, not too many bulls longed in that area.

I just think we will get sideways trading for the next few weeks.

[michellee]

I think in the rest of this month, bitcoin price will not have a significant increase, and it is like what the price now moves. Bitcoin price now still at $8,800 and seems, the price does not break $9,000, but maybe the price can break that price in the next months. We have much time to wait and see for bitcoin price to break on that price, and we should not panic if the price is down. In the end, when the time comes, the bitcoin price will increase so high. I feel it is hard to down to the OP mention, but that could be possible, so we need to be careful.

[Bossian]

$2k is the most likely scenario, due to bullish expectatives in relation to the halving. The bulltard cultist works for the bear.

People ignore that in the previous halving, the derivatives markets didnt have a influence in the bitcoin price. You didnt have Bitmex liquidation engine gambling against bitcoin. Derivatives, futures, paper speculation, its always there to destroy "safe haven" assets. It happened with gold and silver.

Then you have the plandemic to worsen the situation, as bitcoin is correlated with the stock markets, so anything which affects the fiat system, will affect bitcoin as well. And, in the case of the plandemic, there will be one each year, until 2030.

$2k is likely to happen in the second half of this year, with a low of $700-900 by the end of the year.
Adoption of bitcoin is unlikely to happen, as on-chain transactions are extremely slow this year, taking up to one hour for the first confirmation, even with the highest fee.

My fear is if ethereum or ripple takes the place of bitcoin. This would likely to make them targets for the liquidation engine. I would prefer these assets to unpeg from bitcoin price, and take their own path, but without becoming the "first coin" in terms of market cap. A modest development is the best course of action for these projects, without making too much hype.

"bulltard"  I like that word, never heard before, makes perfect sense when you read threads like this https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.538080

Coincidentally I have some Ripple and some Ethereum too, "just in case" and really not much but you never know. Bitcoin remains my favorite coin but only for trading purpose.

On a side note, signature campaigners are doing a magnificent job in this thread, keeping the topic alive and kicking!

[fabiorem]

$2k is the most likely scenario, due to bullish expectatives in relation to the halving. The bulltard cultist works for the bear.

I actually agree regarding how sentiment cycles work. The halving was a "sell the news" event, exactly the same as 2016. However, I think you're mistaken that this necessitates new multi-year lows. It didn't in 2016. There was a brutal 40% crash around the halving in 2016 but a new larger bear market never developed, and BTC was entering a bubble by year end. The same could be happening now.

My opinion on current sentiment is that both bulls and bears are currently greedy and need to be squeezed out. Maximum pain. Coming off a mid-term uptrend, my belief is that bulls will be squeezed first (40% drop like 2016 would mean $6K) and then bears will be squeezed as we enter a new long term bull market or bubble.

There is still a small chance we see sub-$3K again but I think it's much more likely all higher lows from here on out.

Of course, my prediction is quite exaggerated, but I need to prepare myself psychologically, as every time I see hype over any crypto-related event, I cringe.

People believe the cycle will repeat like in a movie. Remember that the exchanges still didn't unpeg themselves from futures markets, where bitcoin is bought and sold without anyone having it. This is the same as printing money out of thin air (inflation, which, for a deflationary asset, can be disastrous).

The most probable scenario is the price visiting the 5-6k area again. Since I'm selling in a inverted DCA strategy (a little each month), I leave the fiat in the exchange and put rebuy orders in that area.

[Harlot]

"Both scenarios are possible" and then proceeds with no kind of explanation or analysis whatsoever explaining why is it a possibility. Yes I know there is a possibility here but as of right now where we are consolidating in the 8,500 to 9,200$ level we cannot even determine yet if we will fail to retest the 9,700$ level or not so determining if Bitcoin will bottom at this stage isn't something to look at right now since that is not what we are currently facing. This "Bitcoin is currently in a downtrend" you are talking about doesn't even exist since like what I have said above Bitcoin is consolidating which is neither an uptrend or a downtrend, basically it is a sideways movement for any chart. 

[beerlover]

I am very very amused by these people, $2k by the end of second half and 700-900 by next year lol, even if you combine all the greatest comedians in the whole world and tell them to write a joke it wouldn't be this funny.

If you think that will happen I would love to buy all of your coins for $5k right now, doesn't matter how much, doesn't matter how many millions of dollars, it could be in billions, I will find the money for it, please sell me all of it for $5k. That way you are making 5x profit as well. People do not realize how many billions of dollars required to sell bitcoin in order to drop that much.

If you think you can find billions of dollars worth of bitcoin to be sold to make the price go down that much, you are only kidding yourself. You can call bulls whatever you want, the price could even drop a bit, but if you are looking for $2k, I am going to be laughing my ass off to the bank thinking about you guys.

[7788bitcoin]

I am very very amused by these people, $2k by the end of second half and 700-900 by next year lol, even if you combine all the greatest comedians in the whole world and tell them to write a joke it wouldn't be this funny.

People dream too much and so is the reason view that the price would dump before a big rally. If they stop considering bitcoin as magic way to make money then they will stop having these wild dreams  .

If you think you can find billions of dollars worth of bitcoin to be sold to make the price go down that much, you are only kidding yourself. You can call bulls whatever you want, the price could even drop a bit, but if you are looking for $2k, I am going to be laughing my ass off to the bank thinking about you guys.

Since there are many wallets which are having coins mined in the early days are waking up and sending out messages anything is possible as you never know what they will be doing with those coins and whether they will dump those coins in the market or when they will be moving those coins but still i am not seeing a blood bath.