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Author Topic: Amazon has a gap to fill with their pe ratio  (Read 500 times)
jackg
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June 14, 2020, 09:27:57 PM
 #21

Airliners and aerospace supply look fundamentally weak. Cruise lines too, I don't see a robust recovery there for some years, at least as long as the pandemic persists.

When the data shows retail investors are piling into these questionable sectors at the same time Warren Buffett is exiting, you have to wonder: is retail buying Wall Street's bags?

Why Is Warren Buffett Selling So Many Stocks?

I'd rather say if they continue to call it a pandemic. There's too little death cases to be calling it a real pandemic and to justify the destruction of tourism and transport.

What is your rationale for that? My understanding is pandemics are defined by their pervasiveness, not their deadliness. As far as deaths go, COVID-19 is now surpassing yearly estimates for deaths from influenza epidemics. The differences here are that this disease is far more contagious, and the seasonal flu is limited to the winter months while COVID-19 infections continues to rise into the summer:

Does it mean that ilnesses that linger for a long time without a large number of deaths are all pandemics? In that case HIV would be a poandemic.

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I also think the number of deaths is drastically under counted. We know the Chinese numbers are outright bullshit. Add on a zero or 2 to everything their government allows to be published. In the US, overall death rates have dramatically risen but deaths are only being attributed to the corona virus with a conclusive test, and bodies aren't being tested unless a patient was previously hospitalized. There are many other examples. In Nicaragua the government claims there have only been a handful of deaths, and yet:


It also could be the other way round if the info about how the victims are counted is true. I'm talking about people who died with COVID19 in their bloodstream. In most countries they were counted as COVID19 victims and nobody bothered to determine the real cause of death. Many hospitals isolate patients with covid19 and if they die for any reasons the bodies are cremated right away.

I'm not saying you are not right about the number of deaths but you could be wrong and the real numbers could be much lower.





Death certificates in the UK NORMALLY list ALL REASOBALE contributing factors. Listing someone as dying from coronavirus isn't too helpful as a figure on its own really, if you overlay it with last years data or a mean average of a few years then you'll see the difference though.

I looked at the first few weeks in the UK and deaths were up by about 4000 on the week, I'd estimate about 20-50% of deaths INSIDE HOSPITALS could be people destined to die on that week to start with, the rest are new infectants potentially lost a while before their time...

Your government probably releases raw data on the number of deaths, don't look at the covid ones just look at the difference between this year and last and see how much the numbers have changed (or look at the increase).

Governments have to list all estates and value them for how much inheritance tax they can get, they're not going to. Miss a trick on thst at this time...

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June 15, 2020, 08:06:26 AM
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 #22

Does it mean that ilnesses that linger for a long time without a large number of deaths are all pandemics? In that case HIV would be a poandemic.

HIV/AIDS is often referred to as a pandemic, yes.

It also could be the other way round if the info about how the victims are counted is true. I'm talking about people who died with COVID19 in their bloodstream. In most countries they were counted as COVID19 victims and nobody bothered to determine the real cause of death. Many hospitals isolate patients with covid19 and if they die for any reasons the bodies are cremated right away.

I'm not saying you are not right about the number of deaths but you could be wrong and the real numbers could be much lower.

I'm sure they are being over counted in some places and under counted in others.

In terms of shear numbers, I think China and the US are of most interest. A lot of data has shown China has systematically hidden the scope of infections (probably by orders of magnitude) the same way they have always lied about their economic and other data. The US too, as a matter of policy, does not test (or count) anyone who wasn't hospitalized prior to dying. If they're only counting cases where there was a positive test, the actual death count is almost certainly higher.

"Excess deaths" are probably meaningful in this respect. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-mortality-hint-higher-coronavirus-death.html

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The official figures include only those deaths attributed to coronavirus, but experts are increasingly looking at data comparing this year's death rates with previous years—regardless of the official cause.

This "excess deaths" metric raises the spectre of a much higher toll, as it includes fatalities indirectly related to the virus—for example, people suffering from other illnesses who could not access treatment because of the strain the pandemic has placed on hospitals.

Throughout the crisis, methods of data compilation have differed widely between nations, making direct comparisons difficult.

In Italy, between February 20 and March 31, 12,428 people were recorded as having died of the coronavirus. But in the same period, authorities noted 25,354 "excess deaths" compared with the average of the five previous years.

For the United States, the difference is even more striking: according to data for March, before the country was hit by the worst of the pandemic, the number of excess deaths reached 6,000—more than triple the official COVID-19 toll.

Even in Germany, widely considered by experts to have handled the outbreak better than other EU countries, 3,706 deaths more than the average were noted in March, even as the official virus toll was 2,218.

Can we attribute every one of those excess deaths to COVID-19? Of course not, but it would be naive to assume it played no role.

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