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Author Topic: TA indicates a sharp drop soon  (Read 732 times)
Oceat
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June 11, 2020, 11:57:49 PM
 #21

It is happening already and soon we might have to see the price touching at $9,000 or less. I don't know what makes the market drop like this but the chances of getting a dump or pump is almost the same. I can't tell which way Bitcoin supposed to go after this drop, I guess it would stay for a week or so then pump back or drop more. Either way is a good sign though since we could buy if it continues to drop.

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June 12, 2020, 12:40:13 AM
 #22

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I was just watching Tone Vays and he seems to think its a normal adjustment and BTC remains more bullish longer term.   Its not that broken that triangle as he has drawn it and I'd say its fairly likely to go up near term before any further downward movement.   I think his estimate for most bearish price was about 7000.
   I will be quite boring and just say the most simple thing is for us to revist the 200 day average, it is rising slightly at the moment and its fair enough to say this sell doesnt make BTC especially worse off for the long term.   My aspirations for this years price are quite modest so this all fits fine though I'd like to know the bottom pricing like anyone else.

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June 12, 2020, 02:16:19 AM
 #23

Unfortunately, the price has dropped too deep because now the price is at $9,300. I wonder if, in the next week, the price can start increase to the last high price, but if the price can not increase, hm that will be a long time to wait for the price back to the higher price. Maybe right now, many people shocked to see the bitcoin price has down deeper than what they expect, but some of them already prepared for the worst thing like this moment. The situations now give an effect to the other coins, which is followed to get down, so we need to be careful.


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June 12, 2020, 04:00:48 AM
 #24

I don't claim to be right all the time, but i tried to warn y'all!  Grin



It's now hovering around the $9300 range but i suspect we will see more pain soon with a zig zag pattern downwards. It also fits in with a popular Elliott Wave theory that bitcoin is entering the final phase (Wave E). So after the final dump down to whatever price - it will rise up to ATH.

I think we might get trolled back to 9.5-9.8k soon instead... Could be completely wrong but it's something to consider, I've been thinking we need to break 10k once more before we go back down and drop from there just to completely kill all the hope...

Unfortunately, the price has dropped too deep because now the price is at $9,300. I wonder if, in the next week, the price can start increase to the last high price, but if the price can not increase, hm that will be a long time to wait for the price back to the higher price. Maybe right now, many people shocked to see the bitcoin price has down deeper than what they expect, but some of them already prepared for the worst thing like this moment. The situations now give an effect to the other coins, which is followed to get down, so we need to be careful.

I don't think 8% for a drop is very major with bitcoin, most investors probably expect it by now...

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June 12, 2020, 08:23:17 AM
 #25

Most analysts are spotting double top/triple top/head and shoulder formations around $10,000 levels these days but I am sure about same kind of double bottom/triple bottom/W shaped formations are going to happen around $9100 to $9500 levels which will lead to breaking up on upper range. Time has gone away along with halving hence still worry about old support ranges which are below $8500 to $8000 levels. I am seeing enough volume to hold above $9000 levels forever here after.

Due to slow economy, we are lagging with triggering news and events to pump bitcoin prices but when hedge funds see bitcoin is doing stronger around $10k levels, definitely they start bet on it. It is going to be tough competition between gold and bitcoin until recession fever gets over. Let's wait and watch who is going to be crowned as better performing alternate asset of 2020.

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June 12, 2020, 01:23:55 PM
 #26

Unfortunately, the price has dropped too deep because now the price is at $9,300. I wonder if, in the next week, the price can start increase to the last high price...

How $500 drop can be characterized at all as some kind of deep decline? This is something quite normal for four-digit number price, we are not in 2016 when such drop (in fiat value) would be truly dramatic. Why to wait next week or next day when price is back to $9500, as if that means something too much if we look at the overall picture.



Due to slow economy, we are lagging with triggering news and events to pump bitcoin prices but when hedge funds see bitcoin is doing stronger around $10k levels, definitely they start bet on it. It is going to be tough competition between gold and bitcoin until recession fever gets over. Let's wait and watch who is going to be crowned as better performing alternate asset of 2020.

Is Grayscale not good enough news? If they buy more Bitcoin per week than new one is mined, this should cause interest of other investors. Maybe that's the case, but it all happens in the background through the OTC market. Gold is not comparable to Bitcoin in terms of short-term profits, because it has a very slow although stable growth, while investing in Bitcoin is something that can pay off in the short term with easy 100% profit.

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June 12, 2020, 07:06:19 PM
 #27

Grayscale is a good news but not enough good news. It is just one company buying a ton of bitcoin but it is still one company. What would be good is a lot of companies like grayscale, generally wall street type of investment bank sort of stuff would actually be good to actually buy bitcoins. With one of them it is definitely good, it is better than having zero of them, however having just 1 versus having 100 is of course no question as well.

I do believe that there is a lot of companies who are investing into bitcoin that is not showing as clearly as grayscale, I just hope that one day they will disclose all the billions of dollars bought between those wall street companies as well. One day we are going to look at this day and think how small we were, until that day we just have to be happy with even just one company being so pro-bitcoin.

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June 12, 2020, 07:40:03 PM
 #28

Is Grayscale not good enough news? If they buy more Bitcoin per week than new one is mined, this should cause interest of other investors.

I believe there is more to the Grayscale story than meets the eye. During this period where their inflows are surging, the GBTC premium over spot is also sinking like a stone. In February, that premium was over 30%. Now it's 15%. In my opinion this is less of a story about bullish institutional accumulation and more of a story about institutional arbitrage.

It sucks to be a GBTC holder right now.

I took a closer look at the GBTC chart vs. BTCUSD and noticed the GBTC premium has been falling quite a bit recently. It's dropped in half since February alongside these big inflows.

I think there is increasing pressure to arbitrage the GBTC price. Even given the 1-year lockup period, a 30% premium (that's what it was at the Febuary peak) is just ridiculous not to arbitrage in a market with increasing regulated options at lower carry costs.

As one example, institutions could short GBTC while it's trading at a huge premium while buying shares at a discount (the NAV price) during private placements.

If this explains the increased volume, then we can probably expect the volume to die down (and maybe Grayscale's overall holdings to decrease as well) once the premium is no longer worth arbitraging.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/what-does-grayscales-gbtc-falling-premium-tell-us-about-bitcoin-price

I've been struggling to find an explanation since GBTC is so unattractive as an investment with its ridiculous premiums and 2% management fee. This is the best I can come up with.

michellee
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June 13, 2020, 12:40:55 AM
 #29

I don't think 8% for a drop is very major with bitcoin, most investors probably expect it by now...

Most investor, and not all investors Grin
Crypto investors are not all people who have a lot of money Grin

How $500 drop can be characterized at all as some kind of deep decline? This is something quite normal for four-digit number price, we are not in 2016 when such drop (in fiat value) would be truly dramatic. Why to wait next week or next day when price is back to $9500, as if that means something too much if we look at the overall picture.

I believe that 8% or $500 for a drop will not be much worried for traders who have a lot of money to trade. But for people who have a little money, that will make them afraid, and they will think or research more about what they need to do. For me, $ 500 is a lot of money, and if bitcoin price is down from $9,900 to $9,300-$9,400, that means for me. The situation now is different than in 2016, especially we are still at the pandemic, and many people are trying to survive.


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June 13, 2020, 10:32:54 AM
 #30

I believe there is more to the Grayscale story than meets the eye. During this period where their inflows are surging, the GBTC premium over spot is also sinking like a stone. In February, that premium was over 30%. Now it's 15%. In my opinion this is less of a story about bullish institutional accumulation and more of a story about institutional arbitrage.

It sucks to be a GBTC holder right now.

Of course, not everything is as ideal as it seems at first glance - behind the whole story there are a lot of small details that you are actually talking about. Bitcoin is not something that can be constantly profited from, at least not for most people - but the fact that Grayscale buys it in such quantities still means something. By the way, do they still continue to buy more BTC?



Grayscale is a good news but not enough good news. It is just one company buying a ton of bitcoin but it is still one company. What would be good is a lot of companies like grayscale, generally wall street type of investment bank sort of stuff would actually be good to actually buy bitcoins.

Another good or maybe positive news is that JPM has started providing banking services for Coinbase and Gemini. As much as a good part of the crypto community does not have a good opinion of banks, it is still the largest US bank and the sixth largest in the world. If large institutions show direct or indirect interest in crypto, then this is a good sign for all current and future investors.



For me, $ 500 is a lot of money, and if bitcoin price is down from $9,900 to $9,300-$9,400, that means for me.

If we say that BTC lost $500 in value, it means that you lose that amount only if you bought BTC for $9900 and sold it for $9400., And only if you sold one whole BTC. If you need to sell for example 0.01 BTC every week, last week you get $99, and today you get $95. So for small amounts it is just few $ which you lose depending on the amount you sell.

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June 13, 2020, 01:36:28 PM
 #31

Unfortunately, the price has dropped too deep because now the price is at $9,300. I wonder if, in the next week, the price can start increase to the last high price, but if the price can not increase, hm that will be a long time to wait for the price back to the higher price. Maybe right now, many people shocked to see the bitcoin price has down deeper than what they expect, but some of them already prepared for the worst thing like this moment. The situations now give an effect to the other coins, which is followed to get down, so we need to be careful.

Price now improved to $9438 after falling to $9,100 on Friday. Bitcoin is really showing a high volatility currency. I expect a more upward movement by next week to show a closing of correction from falling from $97,00 area.. By all means, is still a better time to buy more.

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June 13, 2020, 04:34:28 PM
 #32

It is still an uncertain thing to happen and I believe that Bitcoin price won't have that fall this year as I expect the halvings to take effect in the 4th quarter or early next year. Anyway, if the market will dump I have to buy more Bitcoin and keep it for the next Bullrun.
But I don't have to think it either instead of being positive for the incomings.

It fell a bit because it still follows the stock market. We had a big stock market crash in the last few days which managed to drag BTC down along with it. The positive news is that as some analysts have pointed out, bitcoin is becoming detatched from the stock market, just like gold. The first drop was significant, but the one we've witnessed in the last few days was really small compared to March. The situation is looking very similar to a reversed 6k in 2018. Back then the price was hitting 6000 for 3 months until it finally broke and we fell to the bottom of the bear market. Now, since May, we've been seriously attacking 10k and I believe it's going to break towards 12k in a few weeks.

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June 13, 2020, 04:37:25 PM
 #33

good analysis, but the Bitcoin trend is still positive, so for a dump or a bear I don't think it will happen,
it might be held at $ 8800- $ 9000, and it won't be less than that

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June 13, 2020, 07:03:48 PM
 #34

Unfortunately, the price has dropped too deep because now the price is at $9,300. I wonder if, in the next week, the price can start increase to the last high price...

How $500 drop can be characterized at all as some kind of deep decline? This is something quite normal for four-digit number price, we are not in 2016 when such drop (in fiat value) would be truly dramatic. Why to wait next week or next day when price is back to $9500, as if that means something too much if we look at the overall picture.

OP is expecting price to decrease more in upcoming weeks. So price might decrease much more then just 5%. I totally agree that a 5% drop for Bitcoin is nothing. 

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June 14, 2020, 04:00:33 AM
 #35

For me, $ 500 is a lot of money, and if bitcoin price is down from $9,900 to $9,300-$9,400, that means for me.

If we say that BTC lost $500 in value, it means that you lose that amount only if you bought BTC for $9900 and sold it for $9400., And only if you sold one whole BTC. If you need to sell for example 0.01 BTC every week, last week you get $99, and today you get $95. So for small amounts it is just few $ which you lose depending on the amount you sell.
Still, that amount is good for me Grin

But nevermind, maybe I need more luck to make more profit than now. I am not a big trader, and I just try to make every profit from trading, even for a small profit.

Unfortunately, the price has dropped too deep because now the price is at $9,300. I wonder if, in the next week, the price can start increase to the last high price, but if the price can not increase, hm that will be a long time to wait for the price back to the higher price. Maybe right now, many people shocked to see the bitcoin price has down deeper than what they expect, but some of them already prepared for the worst thing like this moment. The situations now give an effect to the other coins, which is followed to get down, so we need to be careful.

Price now improved to $9438 after falling to $9,100 on Friday. Bitcoin is really showing a high volatility currency. I expect a more upward movement by next week to show a closing of correction from falling from $97,00 area.. By all means, is still a better time to buy more.
Yes, it is better to load more bitcoin before the price start to increase. But somehow, I think I need more time to observe the price first before I decide to buy more. Maybe waiting for more will be good for me while the price now still not move up or down.


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June 14, 2020, 04:37:15 AM
 #36

Seem like bitcoin will fall as your prediction, but if I saw the increasing price in several times ago has formed an Elliot wave pattern.

There are at least five impulse waves has made and now its price will make a corrective wave in a few days ahead (apparently).

So if it happens, we can expect that bitcoin price will make five impulse waves again and will past the $10.500 barrier as its resistance.

To me, bitcoin is still on a bullish market, there still many predictors who believe that bitcoin will hit another all-time high, let's pray it gonna happen.


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June 14, 2020, 05:37:40 AM
 #37

$10,000 will end up like many other strong resistances in the past, it’ll get breached 100%. We may see a dump in the near future but so what. I’m more interested in the long term price direction not short term movements.

Of course.

The more times a level gets hit it becomes weaker and it's like that in both directions. We've been hitting 10 thousand for a while now and it's not going to keep resisting forever.

Bullish expectations point towards 10 thousand this year but I can see us at least touching last year's top of 14.

TA does not predict everything correctly. Since bitcoin is fundamentally strong I don't thing it can drop sharply. I think it may retest 10,000$ few times before breaking it out.

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June 14, 2020, 10:28:29 AM
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 #38

OP is expecting price to decrease more in upcoming weeks. So price might decrease much more then just 5%. I totally agree that a 5% drop for Bitcoin is nothing. 

If Bitcoin were to follow any pattern, then a more significant drop could occur if we look at what happened in 2016 after halving. Then there was a drop of about 40%, but the price was below $1000 at the time so it didn't look so drastic. However, recent events have shown that any drop in price is very short-lived, and that Bitcoin is generally very resilient and cannot be destroyed just like that. I think it is clear to everyone that the greatest strength that Bitcoin has is in ordinary small people and its decentralized nature.



Still, that amount is good for me Grin
But nevermind, maybe I need more luck to make more profit than now. I am not a big trader, and I just try to make every profit from trading, even for a small profit.

I understand very well that for some people, even $1 is a significant amount, because it means whether they will eat something today, or they will be hungry. On the other hand, if someone has 10 BTC and the value drops by $500, it means that he has lost a total of $5000 - of course you need to know how to deal with it mentally, and understand it as just a temporary condition. After the rain always comes the sun Smiley

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June 14, 2020, 11:09:55 AM
 #39

We have a bullish 3 day ascending triangle which usually breaks out just before the apex, but in this case it failed to materialise. Interestingly, the break downwards is only partial in that is hasn't dumped yet and we have reached the apex.



Price movement is now non-existent so direction still isn't clear either way Huh However, as it failed to break upwards on 2 occasions the momentum looks slightly in favour of the bears, but without that break downwards at the apex it is still unconfirmed

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June 14, 2020, 02:35:46 PM
 #40

Only TA is not something that you can fully rely on.
Yes, it could be helpful if used correctly however it's only indicator that doesn't need to be correct at the end.
Before making any kind of decision it's good to consult some other sources.
Price drop is always possible but it's hard to tell in which extend. I don't think there is any reason to panic.

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