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Author Topic: Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask!  (Read 5605 times)
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January 19, 2021, 02:22:51 PM
Merited by vapourminer (2), fillippone (2), Tessnik (1)
 #161

I understand comparing GBTC buys with mined bitcoins is evocative of scarcity, but this comparison is quite naive.
I am afraid no miner bother to sell to Grayscale (I think they have more lucrative businesses).
I think Grayscale is slowly eroding the whales, the ones that have been hodling their coins since a long time ago: these people are the natural sellers to GBTC, the one who want to do an in-kind purchase of shares without generating a taxable event.
Yes exactly, just to tell how Grayscale has been helping resulting to bitcoin being scarce to an extent, there has been statistical data about what you are saying that they are truly buying not directly mined bitcoin but from the whales and people that are selling bitcoin. In November and December, Grayscale really bought bitcoin from the whales that sold. Around the time, the price of bitcoin plunged to $16600 but the institutional investors really helped the price not to go beyond that level and later increased ppossibly bitcoin price could have reduced further like the crash in 2018, and among the institutional investors, Grayscale investment on bitcoin is the largest and so significant. Although there are more retailer investors that invest but institutions especially Grayscale really bought bitcoin from whales that sold which helps bitcoin price not to fall.

My question is who is the owner of grayscale Michael and silbert are not known before.
What was their background before grayscale?
What is most important is that they are well known, and no issue with them with their customers, no scam but a legit company. You can not expect everything to be online like Wikipedia at ones but as the company progress, the founder name will still appear on Wikipedia.

Bitcoins they Buy with grayscale from Where?
Have you being reading what fillippone and some others are posting here at all, if you are reading their posts, you will not ask this question. The bitcoin are bought from the ones sold by bitcoin sellers.

I Don't sell my btc to them. So from where they Buy that big ammount?  Grin
Same question above. From sellers like whales.

Second where is the grayscale another stuff?  Office cleaners and office Workers of customers representitatives?
Headquarters location: New York, NY

Parent organization: Digital Currency Group


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January 19, 2021, 03:01:14 PM
 #162


The inflow chart has some dips or gaps between rising waves or spikes. I can not get figures on the chart but it seems to drop to zero in gaps.

I am not familiar with Grayscale activities and I guess these gaps are correlated with their investment plans (monthly ?). Something like CME future gaps in weekends.

Would you mind explaining it a bit, @fil. please.





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January 19, 2021, 05:34:21 PM
 #163


The inflow chart has some dips or gaps between rising waves or spikes. I can not get figures on the chart but it seems to drop to zero in gaps.

I am not familiar with Grayscale activities and I guess these gaps are correlated with their investment plans (monthly ?). Something like CME future gaps in weekends.

Would you mind explaining it a bit, @fil. please.

The graph is actually available on my spreadhseet.
There you can check all the source data and spot if there is any inaccurate or missing data in it.

The gaps you see on the red lines are the days with no inflows in the fund. They are most probably due to a closure in the fund subscriptions, rather than lack of buyers.
GBTC is usually open to subscriptions, but they can actually close the possibility to enter into it at their own discretion (there is an unclear correlation with other metrics on this).
 

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January 19, 2021, 05:52:37 PM
Merited by fillippone (2)
 #164


The inflow chart has some dips or gaps between rising waves or spikes. I can not get figures on the chart but it seems to drop to zero in gaps.

I am not familiar with Grayscale activities and I guess these gaps are correlated with their investment plans (monthly ?). Something like CME future gaps in weekends.

Would you mind explaining it a bit, @fil. please.
Yes, the inflow dropped to zero if no one is investing with Grayscale at some moment in time. Taking the graph as an example, you will notice it is plotted in 2 weeks ranges in day on the horizontal axis, I mean the days are differs to the next in 2 weeks. Which means there are some weeks that no inflow at all, like on 13/02/2017 to 26/10/2017, and there are times there are customers that invested heavily with Grayscale, example is on 18/01/2021 which is among the 2 weeks plot from 04/12/2020 to 19/01/2021, during this period you can see inflow when customers are investing, and also a time when no one is investing, the time no customer are investing is when Grayscale closes investment for customers recently that fillippone even commented about in few posts back. Later in this January, Grayscale open investment products available to customers again and people started to invest with them. On 18/01/2021, in just a single day customers invested more than 600,000,000 which is the inflow of that day and can also be seen on the graph.





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January 19, 2021, 06:37:48 PM
 #165

The grayscale team game from the middle of the nowhere!! 
Anyways not my business but they should name themselfes " Great Gstsby " Instead of Grayscale

But yea hh  nobody not heard nothing about them
The micheal sonnershein is very strange person yet very successful...  What was so special he was studying in university? 
To run this grayscale anyone can do it all you need is just a lot of money!! 

Nothing impressive to me!
Even coinbase wich is lame scam have higher


The grayscale website look very poor  nothing really inpressive

But at least they push the bitcoin price Up!
Well I hope they make btc to go 300k+

Let's see
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January 20, 2021, 05:33:17 AM
Merited by fillippone (2)
 #166

The graph is actually available on my spreadhseet.
There you can check all the source data and spot if there is any inaccurate or missing data in it.
Thank you and I will check it.

Quote
The gaps you see on the red lines are the days with no inflows in the fund. They are most probably due to a closure in the fund subscriptions, rather than lack of buyers.
GBTC is usually open to subscriptions, but they can actually close the possibility to enter into it at their own discretion (there is an unclear correlation with other metrics on this).
It is what I guess, zero inflows can reflect closure of their fund subsrciptions for their customers (investors), as you said. If it is not the case, zero inflow and repeats over time like the chart will be a strange phenomena.


Yes, the inflow dropped to zero if no one is investing with Grayscale at some moment in time.
Nope. No one invests in a period is different than a closure of fund subscriptions for investors. No one invest can be an indicator for lack of interest in bitcoin investment, as consequence of FUD, massacre on the market, whatsoever.

Quote
Taking the graph as an example, you will notice it is plotted in 2 weeks ranges in day on the horizontal axis, I mean the days are differs to the next in 2 weeks.
You should be careful when you are interpret charts like this. Dates on a chart can be chosen to display on daily, weekly, bi-weekly basis, but the chart can be daily or weekly. They are different charts even the range you see is for every 2 weeks. Moreover, dates on chart are not exactly for every 2 weeks, anywhere from 2 weeks to 3 weeks.

I see the dates on chart but don't know the spreadsheet so that I asked the question.

In addition, I only asked about the zero or nearly zero inflow days.





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January 20, 2021, 12:44:15 PM
 #167

I read this nice article that was around lately:

Grayscale Trust and ‘The Effect’ on Crypto Prices

It's a nice read, I do recommend it.

The author focus on the way the accredited investors can leverage their access to the primary market to cash in the premium embedded in the secondary market, using the proceeds of this to "rinse and repeat", each time increasing the  buying pressure on the fund.


This is the crucial passage:

Quote
Grayscale experiences inflows into its Trust. The investors providing the inflow receive GBTC shares in return. These shares are locked for six months.
When the shares are unlocked, the investors participating in the arbitrage process buy BTC on the spot market for the next six month cycle.

and

Quote
The next major unlocking is set to happen around February 3, 2021. Meaning the time period beforehand will be void of unlockings.

This void enables the market to cool down. That’s what we’re currently witnessing the week of January 11th.


The hypothesis, ad the article also provide some loose proofs about that, is that an investors looks to reinvest the proceeds of the premium cash in again in GBTC shares, so there is a forced buying around expiry of locks in as they are either harvesting BTC for an In-kind subscription, or they give the dollars to GBTC that buys BTC in his sown to hedge their exposure.
Just notable to remember here, and I think that I wasn't mentioned in the article, that every GBTC interaction do not constiture a taxable event if the proceeds are kept inside GBTC and not cashed out. This of course is an heavy incentive for the investors to repeat this little trick.


The article inform us that the next big lock.-in expiry is February 2.



Source

Can you see how February compares to June? or July?
February end of lock period is related to buys in July 2020. This is NOTHING compared to the buys in 20Q4 year, as you can see, that will result in end of 21Q2 end of lock-ins.

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January 21, 2021, 04:56:16 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #168

Apparently Grayscale bought another $300 milllion in Bitcoin according to this article. I think it is referring to Wednesday as it says this happened in the past 24 hours. But anyway In just two days this week (Monday and I guess Wednesday) Grayscale has bought $900 million in btc. Which means they are very likely at over a billion dollars so far this week when you throw Tuesday in there as well. They did about 2.8 billion in Bitcoin the entire last quarter, so they are about half way to that number this quarter just in their first week or so of buying! Institutional demand for Bitcoin is soaring! 2021 is gonna be crazy for price appreciation!

Article mentioned: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/grayscale-buys-the-bitcoin-dip-again-as-the-worlds-largest-asset-manager-prepares-to-invest-in-btc-futures-202101210332
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January 22, 2021, 12:28:27 AM
Last edit: January 22, 2021, 05:02:31 PM by fillippone
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), tranthidung (1)
 #169

Daily GBTC Observer:



Today what strikes me it is not the daily inflow, but the fact that the premium was actually obliterated to zero reaching the last year minimum.


Premium has never been sol low! Just a blip?

I have no clear explanation for this, surely means in the secondary market someone was selling, but the important thing would be to understand why!

Anyway, given the numerous days of net-zero inflows (closed days and public holidays), the actual average for 2021 is still good.



Definitely achievable.
Note that the projection for the quarter are stable in BTC, but the dollar counter value is almost double than last quarter!


Remember that JPM said GBTC needs a daily inflow of 100,000,000 USD to sustain a 40K BTC price!




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January 22, 2021, 01:58:10 AM
 #170

Ah slow day for Grayscale today. Only $30+ million inflow to Bitcoin. Probably investors waiting to see where today's crash leads to. My guess is inflow shoots back up in the next day or two.
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January 22, 2021, 02:10:33 AM
 #171

Why did the GBTC premium go down so suddenly on December 21st 2020 when Bitcoin continued going up?

It's almost like the institutions sold up in time for Christmas, maybe for peace of mind.

Almost like age old stock market maxims like sell in may come back in october.

Why did the premium tank on December 21st 2020?
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January 22, 2021, 03:02:41 PM
 #172

I have no clear explanation for this, surely means in the secondary market someone was selling, but the important thing would be to understand why!
That will just be the reason, as this as happened, it is also linked to the price drop of bitcoin recently. With the second to the last chart you posted, I am beginning to wonder how outflow may possibly later affect the price of bitcoin this year especially if people are selling bitcoin in the secondary market that may affect the price of bitcoin. But let us see how this will go this year to understand how institutions and their investors will affect the price of bitcoin, many people have been saying institutions will be the ones to control the price but this seem early because of the 6 month based outflow as grayscale is the largest crypto asset manager.


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January 26, 2021, 11:20:16 PM
 #173

Slightly slower day for Grayscale.
They have just reduced the inflow pace registered from their January reopening.



138 BTC is a good result, sadly it is also the lowest since the reopening of the fund this year.

They are still on track for a massive quarter, as you can see from this projection.



JPM analysts told that a daily inflow of 100 million dollars is necessary into GBTC to keep bitcoin above 40K Price level.
I am very optimistic about that, we'll see in the coming weeks.

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January 26, 2021, 11:42:58 PM
 #174

Slightly slower day for Grayscale.
They have just reduced the inflow pace registered from their January reopening.



138 BTC is a good result, sadly it is also the lowest since the reopening of the fund this year.

They are still on track for a massive quarter, as you can see from this projection.



JPM analysts told that a daily inflow of 100 million dollars is necessary into GBTC to keep bitcoin above 40K Price level.
I am very optimistic about that, we'll see in the coming weeks.



Oh wow very slow day! Normally they do in the thousands of BTC don't they!

I guess institutions are just waiting to see if price goes up or down. They don't want to buy if they can just wait a few days and get a cheaper price. I bet as soon as price starts heading up again we see them piling in by the thousands of BTC per day once again.
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January 27, 2021, 11:12:19 PM
 #175


Oh wow very slow day! Normally they do in the thousands of BTC don't they!


I am not posting any update here, but everything is in the spreadsheet: another slow day today, or however below the minimum threshold of 100,000,000 inflows needed to keep BTC in the 40K region (or, well, above that threshold).

Strange how you despise GBTC when you have his buying pressure and you miss them when things stall a little bit (we still are above the Stock to Flow Model)


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January 28, 2021, 01:56:51 AM
 #176

Does Bitcoin have any advantages over other cheaper currencies? Why not consider buying sushi?
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January 28, 2021, 03:13:47 AM
 #177

Does Bitcoin have any advantages over other cheaper currencies? Why not consider buying sushi?

That's a pretty retarded question.

Probably you need to flesh out your question better or pose it in one of the shitcoin threads to compare and contrast the various shitcoins that bring interest to your seemingly distracted self - if you cannot even figure out what differentiates bitcoin from various shitcoins including the one that you mentioned.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
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January 28, 2021, 05:11:48 PM
 #178


Oh wow very slow day! Normally they do in the thousands of BTC don't they!


I am not posting any update here, but everything is in the spreadsheet: another slow day today, or however below the minimum threshold of 100,000,000 inflows needed to keep BTC in the 40K region (or, well, above that threshold).

Strange how you despise GBTC when you have his buying pressure and you miss them when things stall a little bit (we still are above the Stock to Flow Model)



I'm confused why you are directing that statement towards me. I've never said anything about despising GBTC.
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January 28, 2021, 08:43:57 PM
Last edit: January 28, 2021, 11:22:42 PM by fillippone
 #179

<...>
I'm confused why you are directing that statement towards me. I've never said anything about despising GBTC.

I am sorry for this misunderstanding, I wasn't referring to you, in any way.
That "you" was meant as a generic person. Actually, that person could be me, as I often complained about GBTC business model, only to be disappointed when I found GBTC buying less than I hoped.

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January 28, 2021, 11:09:12 PM
 #180

<...>
I'm confused why you are directing that statement towards me. I've never said anything about despising GBTC.

I am sorry for this misunderstanding, I wasn't referring to you, in any way.
That "you" was meant as a generic person. Actually, that person could be me, as I often complained about GBTC business model, only to be disappointed when I found GBTC buying less than I hoped.


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