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Author Topic: Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask!  (Read 16341 times)
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January 20, 2021, 05:33:17 AM
Merited by fillippone (2)
 #161

The graph is actually available on my spreadhseet.
There you can check all the source data and spot if there is any inaccurate or missing data in it.
Thank you and I will check it.

Quote
The gaps you see on the red lines are the days with no inflows in the fund. They are most probably due to a closure in the fund subscriptions, rather than lack of buyers.
GBTC is usually open to subscriptions, but they can actually close the possibility to enter into it at their own discretion (there is an unclear correlation with other metrics on this).
It is what I guess, zero inflows can reflect closure of their fund subsrciptions for their customers (investors), as you said. If it is not the case, zero inflow and repeats over time like the chart will be a strange phenomena.


Yes, the inflow dropped to zero if no one is investing with Grayscale at some moment in time.
Nope. No one invests in a period is different than a closure of fund subscriptions for investors. No one invest can be an indicator for lack of interest in bitcoin investment, as consequence of FUD, massacre on the market, whatsoever.

Quote
Taking the graph as an example, you will notice it is plotted in 2 weeks ranges in day on the horizontal axis, I mean the days are differs to the next in 2 weeks.
You should be careful when you are interpret charts like this. Dates on a chart can be chosen to display on daily, weekly, bi-weekly basis, but the chart can be daily or weekly. They are different charts even the range you see is for every 2 weeks. Moreover, dates on chart are not exactly for every 2 weeks, anywhere from 2 weeks to 3 weeks.

I see the dates on chart but don't know the spreadsheet so that I asked the question.

In addition, I only asked about the zero or nearly zero inflow days.

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January 20, 2021, 12:44:15 PM
Last edit: May 16, 2023, 12:36:00 AM by fillippone
 #162

I read this nice article that was around lately:

Grayscale Trust and ‘The Effect’ on Crypto Prices

It's a nice read, I do recommend it.

The author focus on the way the accredited investors can leverage their access to the primary market to cash in the premium embedded in the secondary market, using the proceeds of this to "rinse and repeat", each time increasing the  buying pressure on the fund.


This is the crucial passage:

Quote
Grayscale experiences inflows into its Trust. The investors providing the inflow receive GBTC shares in return. These shares are locked for six months.
When the shares are unlocked, the investors participating in the arbitrage process buy BTC on the spot market for the next six month cycle.

and

Quote
The next major unlocking is set to happen around February 3, 2021. Meaning the time period beforehand will be void of unlockings.

This void enables the market to cool down. That’s what we’re currently witnessing the week of January 11th.


The hypothesis, ad the article also provide some loose proofs about that, is that an investors looks to reinvest the proceeds of the premium cash in again in GBTC shares, so there is a forced buying around expiry of locks in as they are either harvesting BTC for an In-kind subscription, or they give the dollars to GBTC that buys BTC in his sown to hedge their exposure.
Just notable to remember here, and I think that I wasn't mentioned in the article, that every GBTC interaction do not constiture a taxable event if the proceeds are kept inside GBTC and not cashed out. This of course is an heavy incentive for the investors to repeat this little trick.


The article inform us that the next big lock.-in expiry is February 2.



Source

Can you see how February compares to June? or July?
February end of lock period is related to buys in July 2020. This is NOTHING compared to the buys in 20Q4 year, as you can see, that will result in end of 21Q2 end of lock-ins.

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January 21, 2021, 04:56:16 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #163

Apparently Grayscale bought another $300 milllion in Bitcoin according to this article. I think it is referring to Wednesday as it says this happened in the past 24 hours. But anyway In just two days this week (Monday and I guess Wednesday) Grayscale has bought $900 million in btc. Which means they are very likely at over a billion dollars so far this week when you throw Tuesday in there as well. They did about 2.8 billion in Bitcoin the entire last quarter, so they are about half way to that number this quarter just in their first week or so of buying! Institutional demand for Bitcoin is soaring! 2021 is gonna be crazy for price appreciation!

Article mentioned: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/grayscale-buys-the-bitcoin-dip-again-as-the-worlds-largest-asset-manager-prepares-to-invest-in-btc-futures-202101210332
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January 22, 2021, 12:28:27 AM
Last edit: May 16, 2023, 12:35:44 AM by fillippone
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), tranthidung (1)
 #164

Daily GBTC Observer:



Today what strikes me it is not the daily inflow, but the fact that the premium was actually obliterated to zero reaching the last year minimum.


Premium has never been sol low! Just a blip?

I have no clear explanation for this, surely means in the secondary market someone was selling, but the important thing would be to understand why!

Anyway, given the numerous days of net-zero inflows (closed days and public holidays), the actual average for 2021 is still good.



Definitely achievable.
Note that the projection for the quarter are stable in BTC, but the dollar counter value is almost double than last quarter!


Remember that JPM said GBTC needs a daily inflow of 100,000,000 USD to sustain a 40K BTC price!





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thecodebear
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January 22, 2021, 01:58:10 AM
 #165

Ah slow day for Grayscale today. Only $30+ million inflow to Bitcoin. Probably investors waiting to see where today's crash leads to. My guess is inflow shoots back up in the next day or two.
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January 22, 2021, 02:10:33 AM
 #166

Why did the GBTC premium go down so suddenly on December 21st 2020 when Bitcoin continued going up?

It's almost like the institutions sold up in time for Christmas, maybe for peace of mind.

Almost like age old stock market maxims like sell in may come back in october.

Why did the premium tank on December 21st 2020?
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January 22, 2021, 03:02:41 PM
 #167

I have no clear explanation for this, surely means in the secondary market someone was selling, but the important thing would be to understand why!
That will just be the reason, as this as happened, it is also linked to the price drop of bitcoin recently. With the second to the last chart you posted, I am beginning to wonder how outflow may possibly later affect the price of bitcoin this year especially if people are selling bitcoin in the secondary market that may affect the price of bitcoin. But let us see how this will go this year to understand how institutions and their investors will affect the price of bitcoin, many people have been saying institutions will be the ones to control the price but this seem early because of the 6 month based outflow as grayscale is the largest crypto asset manager.

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January 26, 2021, 11:20:16 PM
Last edit: May 16, 2023, 12:34:15 AM by fillippone
 #168

Slightly slower day for Grayscale.
They have just reduced the inflow pace registered from their January reopening.



138 BTC is a good result, sadly it is also the lowest since the reopening of the fund this year.

They are still on track for a massive quarter, as you can see from this projection.



JPM analysts told that a daily inflow of 100 million dollars is necessary into GBTC to keep bitcoin above 40K Price level.
I am very optimistic about that, we'll see in the coming weeks.


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January 26, 2021, 11:42:58 PM
 #169

Slightly slower day for Grayscale.
They have just reduced the inflow pace registered from their January reopening.



138 BTC is a good result, sadly it is also the lowest since the reopening of the fund this year.

They are still on track for a massive quarter, as you can see from this projection.



JPM analysts told that a daily inflow of 100 million dollars is necessary into GBTC to keep bitcoin above 40K Price level.
I am very optimistic about that, we'll see in the coming weeks.



Oh wow very slow day! Normally they do in the thousands of BTC don't they!

I guess institutions are just waiting to see if price goes up or down. They don't want to buy if they can just wait a few days and get a cheaper price. I bet as soon as price starts heading up again we see them piling in by the thousands of BTC per day once again.
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January 27, 2021, 11:12:19 PM
 #170


Oh wow very slow day! Normally they do in the thousands of BTC don't they!


I am not posting any update here, but everything is in the spreadsheet: another slow day today, or however below the minimum threshold of 100,000,000 inflows needed to keep BTC in the 40K region (or, well, above that threshold).

Strange how you despise GBTC when you have his buying pressure and you miss them when things stall a little bit (we still are above the Stock to Flow Model)


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January 28, 2021, 01:56:51 AM
 #171

Does Bitcoin have any advantages over other cheaper currencies? Why not consider buying sushi?
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January 28, 2021, 03:13:47 AM
 #172

Does Bitcoin have any advantages over other cheaper currencies? Why not consider buying sushi?

That's a pretty retarded question.

Probably you need to flesh out your question better or pose it in one of the shitcoin threads to compare and contrast the various shitcoins that bring interest to your seemingly distracted self - if you cannot even figure out what differentiates bitcoin from various shitcoins including the one that you mentioned.

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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January 28, 2021, 05:11:48 PM
 #173


Oh wow very slow day! Normally they do in the thousands of BTC don't they!


I am not posting any update here, but everything is in the spreadsheet: another slow day today, or however below the minimum threshold of 100,000,000 inflows needed to keep BTC in the 40K region (or, well, above that threshold).

Strange how you despise GBTC when you have his buying pressure and you miss them when things stall a little bit (we still are above the Stock to Flow Model)



I'm confused why you are directing that statement towards me. I've never said anything about despising GBTC.
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January 28, 2021, 08:43:57 PM
Last edit: January 28, 2021, 11:22:42 PM by fillippone
 #174

<...>
I'm confused why you are directing that statement towards me. I've never said anything about despising GBTC.

I am sorry for this misunderstanding, I wasn't referring to you, in any way.
That "you" was meant as a generic person. Actually, that person could be me, as I often complained about GBTC business model, only to be disappointed when I found GBTC buying less than I hoped.

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January 28, 2021, 11:09:12 PM
 #175

<...>
I'm confused why you are directing that statement towards me. I've never said anything about despising GBTC.

I am sorry for this misunderstanding, I wasn't referring to you, in any way.
That "you" was meant as a generic person. Actually, that person could be me, as I often complained about GBTC business model, only to be disappointed when I found GBTC buying less than I hoped.


gotcha Smiley
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January 28, 2021, 11:57:38 PM
Last edit: January 29, 2021, 12:15:55 AM by fillippone
 #176

One of the slowest days recently for GBTC with a minimal inflows of only 14 net BTC today.
I think we have to go back many weeks to observe three consecutive days below 1,000 BTC of net inflows.
Check the spreadsheet for all the details!

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January 29, 2021, 07:27:41 PM
 #177

One of the slowest days recently for GBTC with a minimal inflows of only 14 net BTC today.
I think we have to go back many weeks to observe three consecutive days below 1,000 BTC of net inflows.
Check the spreadsheet for all the details!


Wow so basically zero buying for the day haha. Clearly all the recent FUD and the ongoing correction has institutions staying on the sidelines and waiting to see what will happen. They were buying up hundreds of millions of dollars per day just a couple weeks ago haha.

Will be interesting to see if yesterday's pump lasts through the weekend or if it falls back to low $30,000s (as it seems to possibly be doing now). If it can hold some support from the pump though I think we'll see institutional buying pick back up next week. For now though it seems they've bought the dip as much as they wanted to and will be in wait-and-see mode until the market starts moving back up in a stable manner.
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January 29, 2021, 11:24:44 PM
Last edit: May 16, 2023, 12:33:36 AM by fillippone
 #178

One of the slowest days recently for GBTC with a minimal inflows of only 14 net BTC today.
I think we have to go back many weeks to observe three consecutive days below 1,000 BTC of net inflows.
Check the spreadsheet for all the details!


Wow so basically zero buying for the day haha. Clearly all the recent FUD and the ongoing correction has institutions staying on the sidelines and waiting to see what will happen. They were buying up hundreds of millions of dollars per day just a couple weeks ago haha.

Will be interesting to see if yesterday's pump lasts through the weekend or if it falls back to low $30,000s (as it seems to possibly be doing now). If it can hold some support from the pump though I think we'll see institutional buying pick back up next week. For now though it seems they've bought the dip as much as they wanted to and will be in wait-and-see mode until the market starts moving back up in a stable manner.

Yes, they are slowing down:



Well, this is not too bad, but compared to the last inflows this is certainly a disappointment.

IF we look at the quarterly projection, the situation doesn't look too bad:





The projected BTC amount is only slightly below the historical maximum, while the AUM reflect the spectacular growth in the underlying price.




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February 03, 2021, 02:05:42 PM
 #179

The Grayscale 4Q20 report is out. Pretty interesting read in my opinion: "Fastest growing investment product in the world", doesn't sound too bad.  Wink



Source: https://twitter.com/Grayscale/status/1356734399484735489



If you're interested in the key facts, please see below (for all information, please see the linked report on their website!)

Q4 2020 Investment Highlights

Total Investment into Grayscale Products: $3.3 billion
Average Weekly Investment – All Products: $250.7 million
Average Weekly Investment – Grayscale® Bitcoin Trust: $217.1 million
Average Weekly Investment – Grayscale® Ethereum Trust: $26.3 million
Average Weekly Investment – Grayscale® Digital Large Cap Fund: $1.6 million
Average Weekly Investment – Grayscale Products ex Bitcoin Trust3: $33.6 million

Majority of investment (93%) came from institutional investors, dominated by asset managers.

Year Ended 2020 (“YE20”) Highlights

Total Investment into Grayscale Products: $5.7 billion
Average Weekly Investment – All Products: $109.8 million
Average Weekly Investment – Grayscale Bitcoin Trust: $90.0 million
Average Weekly Investment – Grayscale Ethereum Trust: $15.2 million
Average Weekly Investment – Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund: $1.4 million
Average Weekly Investment – Grayscale Products ex Bitcoin Trust5: $19.8 million

Majority of investment (86%) came from institutional investors, dominated by asset managers.



The Takeaway
2020 was a hallmark year for Grayscale and digital assets more broadly. Thank you to the community and our investors for making it possible. We are proud to share data that reflects the massive adoption throughout 2020, and specifically, 4Q20.

$3 Billion Dollar Quarter: Grayscale experienced unprecedented investor demand, with approximately $3.3 billion of inflows. Investment into the Grayscale family of products surpassed $5.7 billion during 2020, more than four times the $1.2 billion cumulative inflow into the products from 2013-2019.

Since inception, the Grayscale family of products has seen nearly $6.9 billion of inflows.  

$20 Billion Dollar AUM: Grayscale began the year with $2.0 billion in assets under management and ended 2020 with $20.2 billion. In 2020, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust was among the fastest growing investment products in the world, growing from $1.8 billion to $17.5 billion AUM.11 This is an incredible testament to the maturation of the digital currency ecosystem.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Inflows Outpace Mined Bitcoin: As we have noted in prior reports, the inflows into Grayscale Bitcoin Trust have continued to grow as a percent of mined Bitcoin. This metric is significant because miners are known to be the market’s natural sellers, often using their newly mined Bitcoin to pay for operating expenses. In 4Q20, Bitcoin inflows were approximately 194% of mined Bitcoin.

However, these comparisons are simply to illustrate supply and demand in the market. They do not provide insight into the destination of any newly mined Bitcoin during the measured periods.

Institutions are Here: Institutions have historically accounted for a majority of Grayscale inflows. This was especially true in 4Q20 as institutions accounted for 93% of capital inflows, or $3.0 billion. This may not come as a surprise given the recent flurry of news that institutions have warmed up to Bitcoin. Indeed, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust accounted for 87% of all inflows to our product family, the highest proportion since 2Q17, further evidence of institutions looking to Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

The average commitment among institutions is also growing at a significant pace. The average commitment from institutions was $6.8 million, up from an average of $2.9 million in 3Q20.

Surging Demand from RIAs: In 4Q20, Grayscale received substantial inbound interest from wealth managers interested to learn more about Bitcoin to satisfy the growing number of client requests. This is part of an emerging trend of the last six months that is critical for continued adoption.

Source/Full Report: https://grayscale.co/insights/grayscale-q4-2020-digital-asset-investment-report/

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February 03, 2021, 02:31:19 PM
Merited by bullrun2024bro (1)
 #180

The Grayscale 4Q20 report is out.

Thank,s I think we covered this news here.
Anyway, thanks
Quote
"Fastest growing investment product in the world"

Indeed, sounds quite good, even if they slowed a little bit lately, let's see if it is a temporary bump in a smooth ride, or it is something more structural.

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