[Betting & Discussion] Chinese Basketball Association - Rest of 2019/2020 Season

[tyKiwanuka]

No good bets in the past days. It doesn't mean that I don't play anything, but there is nothing that I can really recommend with clean conscience for people to probably follow. For today I placed a bet on Shandong ML, when the odds came out with medium stakes:



Getting up this morning, I checked the odds movements and saw this :



I tried to search for information, why these odds were going so heavily against me, but have no idea. I only know, that Shandong will not win this match. This is probably fixed or lots of Shandong players got sick, which is not made public and only certain people know of. Lets see what the line-ups will look like.

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[tyKiwanuka]

Beijing - Fujian ML Beijing @1.76 7/10 (FJ)

Beijing needs this win badly to secure a spot in Top4. They even rested their best player against Sichuan in last game to have him fresh for this game. Fujian has not a lot to play for - they will finish in Top12 and if it's better to finish #12, #11, #10 etc. is yet unknown. Beijing is the way better team overall and I could even imagine Fujian giving some rest to their players.

Edit:

FJ copied the odds from Marathon/1xbit without Bet365 having published their odds yet (they are benchmark). Bet365 opened like 30min later with 1.34 for Beijing and it's down to 1.25 now even. I won't count this bet for the stats, since there is no point in just pimping the stats, without anyone being able to follow the bets. And I doubt anyone was able to follow.......

[tyKiwanuka]

Beijing - Fujian ML Beijing @1.76 7/10 (FJ)

Fujian did indeed rest their best two players for this game. During this season, when one of these two was missing, they always lost by 30+. Both these players missing was a first time this season, but they did a bit better and lost by 28. 115-87 FT.

Odds shortly before tip-off:


Source: FortuneJack

As said, this will not count towards the stats, so they remain the same.


For tomorrow/Friday:

Shanghai - Fujian ML Fujian @2.60 6/10 (FJ)

These odds look super high, if Fujian gave only a one-game rest to their two best players. If they choose to rest them for more games - to have them fresh for PO and because they don't care about finishing #12/#11/#10 in the table, then these odds are poor. It's a little gamble and I might buy these odds back (most likely with a loss), so either stake only 2-3/10 or watch out for a new post or edit in this thread and hedge for a loss then.

Edit:

Odds have moved a bit and I personally have taken out my stake by betting on Shanghai @4.29 to win 6 units. This is still CBA and anything can happen, so I would recommend to do the same.

Shanghai - Fujian ML Shanghai @4.29 1.4/10


Source: FortuneJack

[ralle14]

Nice catch on those odds, I missed the underdog odds on Fujian so I had to monitor the live odds. There were a couple of chances but the odds didn't move that high (only 1.3-1.4) during the second quarter when Beijing went on a small run to take the lead. In the third Fujian gain control of the lead so I had to take my chances in the +8.5 live handicap odds for Shanghai luckily they covered. 

[tyKiwanuka]

Shanghai - Fujian ML Fujian @2.60 6/10 (FJ)
Shanghai - Fujian ML Shanghai @4.29 1.4/10

I actually made a mistake with the second bet - math was never my strength - and the stake should have been 1.83/10 to cover 6 units. I will use the 1.83 stake for the stats.
It was a closer match than expected in the end, though I never had the feeling that Fujian would lose this. They played with full roster again and won 127-120 FT. +9.60 - 1.83 = +7.77 units

Profit: +11.22   
Yield: 11.47%   
W-L: 12-11
Win rate: 52.17%   
Average Stake: 4.25   
Average Odds: 2.38

Tomorrow there is only one game, which is uninteresting.

Nice catch on those odds, I missed the underdog odds on Fujian so I had to monitor the live odds. There were a couple of chances but the odds didn't move that high (only 1.3-1.4) during the second quarter when Beijing went on a small run to take the lead. In the third Fujian gain control of the lead so I had to take my chances in the +8.5 live handicap odds for Shanghai luckily they covered. 

Gratz I expected Fujian to win more comfortable, but happy it was close, if it won you a bet. In general it's very hard to follow these bets - maybe too hard to justify such a thread, which is hard to maintain anyway due to different circumstances. The odds in CBA just move very fast once published, because they are often very wrong. So I don't know, if there is a point in continuing. You could get odds around 2.50-ish for Fujian for around an hour yesterday, some hours later they were around 2.00, before tip-off all the way down to 1.1x.

If people read my posts only hours later and then play 1.60, when I played/recommended 2.60, then this is not what I want, because they will most likely lose money longterm (value is gone in the lower odds). I think I will continue with posting some bets for last round of regular season and PO's afterwards and then re-think, if such a thread makes sense (for next season)

[tyKiwanuka]

Guangdong - Beijing ML Beijing @3.37 2/10 (FJ)

Betting against Guangdong is not what I would normally recommend, since they decide how a game ends For that game tomorrow they might think it's better to gift the points to Beijing though, because it would mean that Beijing secures #3 spot in regular season and they would avoid them in PO for the time being. This is just pure speculation - thus the low staking - but Beijing is their nemesis.

If Liaoning loses their game tomorrow, this changes the calculation, but they are 1.01 favourites to beat Sichuan and need the win to stay in Top4. 

[tyKiwanuka]

Guangdong - Beijing ML Beijing @3.37 2/10 (FJ)

No "luck" here, Guangdong played their normal style, toying with their opponents as usual, 101-82 FT.

Profit: +9.22   
Yield: 9.24%   
W-L: 12-12
Win rate: 50.00%   
Average Stake: 4.16   
Average Odds: 2.42

The numbers look ok, but still a small sample size.


Regular season is finished now and we are wating for playoffs to start on Friday and which will be "best of one" only for this and the following round.

Zhejiang Guangsha - Fujian
Zhejiang Chouzhou - Shanxi
Beikong - Jilin
Qingdao - Shandong

Lets see how the bookies/markets price these games.

[tyKiwanuka]

Guangsha - Fujian under 219,5 @1.82 4/10

This is too high for such a crucial match (remember it's bo1). Guangsha rarely crossed this line, they even often times didn't have 200+ in their games. Fujian is a high-scoring team, but they will adjust their style for tomorrows game a bit too. 200-210 points looks more likely.

[tyKiwanuka]

Guangsha - Fujian under 219,5 @1.82 4/10

They thought this was AllStar-Game and came out firing on all cylinders. This bet was never in danger of winning, but this is sometimes better than losing a close one. The line was going up a bit after I placed the bet, thats never a good sign in CBA as it was the case here too, 119-132 FT.

Profit: +5.22   
Yield: 5.03%   
W-L: 12-13
Win rate: 48.00%   
Average Stake: 4.15   
Average Odds: 2.39


Fujian was the only underdog to make it to the next round. Quarter-finals will start tomorrow with the Top4 teams from regular season tuning in and starting their run for the title:

Guangdong - Qingdao
Beijing - Fujian
Xinjiang - Beikong
Liaoning - Zhejiang

Not too excited with these matchups; Guangdong and Beijing should have no problems to reach SF and odds suggest just that. I can see one of Beikong/Zhejiang pulling an upset, but lets see what odds we will get for that (these games are on Monday).

[tyKiwanuka]

Guangdong - Liaoning ML Guangdong @1.36 8/10

Last game of this season and I have written about Guangdong often times. They are by far the best team in CBA and they own every opponent (but Beijing). Why is the series tied at 1-1 then ? Looks like they wanted a third game for whatever reason. They were in control in game #2 already with 20pts up late in the third quarter, but then played a bit strange and didn't seem to keen to get the Championship just yet; lost Q4 with 20-34. But for me there is no doubt, that they will be crowned champions tomorrow and for this to happen, they have to win tomorrow.

These are small odds of course, but maybe something to put in some parlay. Good luck

[ralle14]

Nice way to end the season with a win. I was going to take them pre live but the odds went down to 1.2 so I was banking on them to go down early and they did. I manage to grab the match winner at 1.4. I didn't put too much but it's still a nice boost for my bankroll. 

[tyKiwanuka]

Nice way to end the season with a win. I was going to take them pre live but the odds went down to 1.2 so I was banking on them to go down early and they did. I manage to grab the match winner at 1.4. I didn't put too much but it's still a nice boost for my bankroll. 

Hehe, well done Thats how it should be - look for good pre-match odds and try to get even better odds inplay.

In Q4 Guangdong gave us a little scare, because their Superstar Yi Jianlian (some might still know him from NBA) went down with achilles tendon rupture and this could have turned the game around, but Guangdong fought trough it and won 123-115 FT. This injury is maybe career-ending for him, since he is probably way older than what public sources say

Profit: +8.10   
Yield: 7.24%   
W-L: 13-13
Win rate: 50.00%   
Average Stake: 4.30   
Average Odds: 2.35

Not great stats, but ok. 2020/2021 season starts in October iirc, so I will probably be back then with a few bets here and there, though I am aware it's hard to follow the bets with the same-ish odds, which is very important longterm. Teams should look very different and this will for sure give some good opportunities in the beginning of the season at least.

[bisdak40]

Nice way to end the season with a win. I was going to take them pre live but the odds went down to 1.2 so I was banking on them to go down early and they did. I manage to grab the match winner at 1.4. I didn't put too much but it's still a nice boost for my bankroll. 

Not for me as i'm one shot short for the win on the last game of the season in the CBA. I thought that there is no more playing around for the Southern Tigers and enforce their full strength in this last game but it was scary in the first half.



@tyKiwanuka, hope you will be back next season mate.

[tyKiwanuka]

I thought that there is no more playing around for the Southern Tigers and enforce their full strength in this last game but it was scary in the first half.

I expected this to be a more easy win as well. They are so dominant and can basically decide on their own how a game finishes; if they want, they can win every game with 40+. Maybe they were a bit nervous yesterday and also a bit tired from the last weeks. And the Yi injury played into this too in the end - with him available in the last minutes, they probably would have beaten the -9.5.

In general I don't like to play HC's somehow, because it's not what teams are playing for. They want to win the game and don't care that much, if it's with +1 or +50.

Just so people get an idea, how good Guangdong is: They only played with one import player all the time, although they are allowed to use two. They flew in their second import player MarShon Brooks some weeks ago and have him sitting in a hotel room as a backup since then