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Author Topic: What is the best strategy for a someone who is both a believer and a bear?  (Read 1020 times)
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November 22, 2011, 06:14:37 PM

I am a new convert to the belief that Bitcoin is a good idea, but I also think the price of Bitcoins are still 50% to 80% hype and are going to continue coming down.  So my dilemma is that I want to sell some items and convert a little money into Bitcoin to use, but I am worried about all the value I will be losing over the next year.

So, what I have been doing is selling my stuff for coin but then converting most of it to USD on and leaving it there until I need it.  Then if I run out of BTC I can easily convert my USD store there into BTC at what is likely to be a lower price.  This strategy has already saved me a few bucks.

So I guess my questions are:

Is there a better site I can use for the above strategy?(less fees, more trustworth, etc.)

Is some other strategies I can use to be involved in Bitcion, but not lose value as the price sinks?

Disclaimer:  I know there are many bulls out there, I am not trying to argue.  I just looking for how you would proceded if you felt as I do.

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The first is by definition not flawed.

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November 22, 2011, 06:24:24 PM

To keep it simple:
1.Do not buy on exchanges until your believe supports the price.
2.Help by offering more/better services to the community.
3.Inform more people about bitcoins benefits.
4. If you want to buy anything try to source it from a bitcoin accepting trader.

don't let me make you question your assumptions
Mike Caldwell
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November 22, 2011, 06:36:30 PM

Here is a suggestion... Stick some money in MtGox so you can pull the trigger right away when the moment is right.  You might find that the day the BTC price is to your liking, that it only stays that way for a few minutes or hours.

Get the YubiKey.  You'll feel much better about leaving dollars there if your account is protected with it.

Companies claiming they got hacked and lost your coins sounds like fraud so perfect it could be called fashionable.  I never believe them.  If I ever experience the misfortune of a real intrusion, I declare I have been honest about the way I have managed the keys in Casascius Coins.  I maintain no ability to recover or reproduce the keys, not even under limitless duress or total intrusion.  Remember that trusting strangers with your coins without any recourse is, as a matter of principle, not a best practice.  Don't keep coins online. Use paper or hardware wallets instead.
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November 22, 2011, 09:22:44 PM

If you really believe the price is headed down, you can use bitcoinica to take a short position (just make sure you have a good grasp of leverage, margin calls, limit and stop orders).  Otherwise, wait until you think the price has bottomed before buying or holding any significant amount of bitcoin.  On the other hand, if you're not entirely certain where the price it likely to go, you can set aside some amount of income each week or month and dollar cost average and not worry as much about what the price does in the short term.  It's hard to read the charts to try time the market and guess what the crowd will do next.  That's true of stocks and it's doubly true of bitcoin as volatile as it is.

(gasteve on IRC) Does your website accept cash?
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November 22, 2011, 10:53:24 PM

Are you primarily interested in using or investing?

I'm into using it as a currency, and I'm following the same strategy as you have been:  I keep a little pocket money in BTC, but almost all of my wealth stays in USD.  If value stabilizes I'll gradually let the BTC side grow by not bothering to trade back to USD, but that's a long way off.  I don't consider the friendly side of the next bubble to be stable, and I won't be buying into it - again, I'm here for a transactional currency, not an investment.

If you want to invest...   Well, that's a whole complicated game with even more strategies than there are players.

As for which exchange to use:  Pick one located in your country (As I said about Exchb, they were in a convenient location for me to go burn their office down if they screwed me), owned by someone whose name you know, with fair T&C, and reasonable fees (about 1% round-trip is typical).  Other than that and doing some background checking on them (read what's been said about them here), trust is subjective.

      War is God's way of teaching Americans geography.  --Ambrose Bierce
Bitcoin is the Devil's way of teaching geeks economics.  --Revalin 165YUuQUWhBz3d27iXKxRiazQnjEtJNG9g
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