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[okala]

July is here and bitcoin seem to keep loosing volume. The corona pandemic has really changed the equations we have before. I think and I do believe that bitcoin is not going to move very significantly this month.

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[exstasie]

It all depends what time frame we're talking about. If you zoom out to include last year, we've seen all lower highs and lower lows since June 2019. That's a bear market.

To break that structure, bulls need to break and hold above $10.5K.

But if we take an even larger scale, it turns out that in order to exit the bear market it is necessary to exceed 20k, right?

I wouldn't say so. I define bear markets based on pivot highs and lows. To form an uptrend, we need to see successive higher lows and higher highs. You can see since the 2017 top that the market has seen nothing but lower highs:



Breaking above $10.5K will form the first structural higher high. That will indicate the bear market has ended. We'll get additional confirmation of a bull market when the June 2019 high is breached, and subsequently when the market confirms another structural higher low like December 2018 or March 2020.

Breaching $20K will provide yet another confirmation. I wouldn't wait for $20K to turn bullish on this market though.

[KTChampions]

But if we take an even larger scale, it turns out that in order to exit the bear market it is necessary to exceed 20k, right?

I wouldn't say so. I define bear markets based on pivot highs and lows. To form an uptrend, we need to see successive higher lows and higher highs. You can see since the 2017 top that the market has seen nothing but lower highs:

https://i.imgur.com/wdWMWlT.png

Breaking above $10.5K will form the first structural higher high. That will indicate the bear market has ended. We'll get additional confirmation of a bull market when the June 2019 high is breached, and subsequently when the market confirms another structural higher low like December 2018 or March 2020.

Breaching $20K will provide yet another confirmation. I wouldn't wait for $20K to turn bullish on this market though.

Interesting reasoning, I understand you. I can’t say that I completely agree with you, but thanks for the details. Now if we look at your reasoning from the other side: will it be correct to say that if bitcoin does not break this high in the near future, will we see prices below 8k (7?)?

[wxxyrqa]

Most experts provide various forecasts, confirming their words or corresponding schedules and other circumstances that exist in the world. but nevertheless, the cryptocurrency market was always unpredictable and could surprise with the subsequent development of events. It seems to me that this year there is no need to hope for such drastic changes in the cryptocurrency market. But next year, bitcoin may bring us a surprise with a fairly good and stable price increase. In my opinion, it is the global economy, as well as the coronavirus, that will affect this situation. In addition, we must take into account that more than once it has been said that the United States is constantly increasing the money supply, because it is really in short supply, especially in Africa and Asia. And this causes a drop in the value of the dollar. Thus, many investors will look for alternative assets for investments that will not be subject to inflation. I believe that Bitcoin is a very good choice for this, like many other coins in the cryptocurrency market.

[jostorres]

Well, the transactions getting a bit more higher and higher means that there could be an increase. I feel like July will be a month where people may go back inside, for a while there until start of June many people stayed at their homes, by late May and early June people started to go back outside, and that meant two things; 1- People weren't at home to trade, which mean they would not really make any changes to the price of bitcoin and 2- They might need money to spend with that extra time they now have and after so many months of staying at home they would want to spend that money.

Now that pandemic is looking scary once again, I feel like maybe people might want to go back home, or just go to vacation places so that they could stay away from other people and be in a relaxed position.

[Kelvinid]

The market isn't looking as what we think for Bullrun this month, not even sure next month. What I was thinking to see it late this quarter or early days in the 4th quarter. Yes, we all know the market is truly unpredictable but the base of what is shown in previous years, mostly we saw pumps at those particular days and seems to be possible at this time.
But somehow we understand the current situation and to believe that it will affect the trend.
I don't know how halving could influence the market situation that is why I'd never expected and think of it until we saw recoveries of the global economic situation.

[mersal]

July is here and bitcoin seem to keep loosing volume. The corona pandemic has really changed the equations we have before. I think and I do believe that bitcoin is not going to move very significantly this month.

Atleast maintaining at 10K level will be really good for crypto users because it seems we are slightly dragging into bearish mode since this month began.Yes pandemic is the reason why bitcoin is struggling now because we are all set for a good bullish run after the halving but now everything got collapsed.

[minairia3]

July is here and bitcoin seem to keep loosing volume. The corona pandemic has really changed the equations we have before. I think and I do believe that bitcoin is not going to move very significantly this month.

Just checked the volume on cmc it seems there is not much change on bitcoin volume of course there will be highs and lows but the stability still intact. We are few days yet for this month and we can still reached 10k stable level but due to volatility we cant prevent it from breaking a lot of support and resistance.

Not only crypto market but stocks also being crushed, tis are correlatable since stocks and crypto are probably have one investors too.

[carlisle1]

July is here and bitcoin seem to keep loosing volume. The corona pandemic has really changed the equations we have before. I think and I do believe that bitcoin is not going to move very significantly this month.

Just checked the volume on cmc it seems there is not much change on bitcoin volume of course there will be highs and lows but the stability still intact. We are few days yet for this month and we can still reached 10k stable level but due to volatility we cant prevent it from breaking a lot of support and resistance.

Maybe what OP is talking 3rd quarter and not only for the month of July,Because this month is just the start of the month and many things may happen towards that part so maybe there will be a changes in this month or the next two months from now.

Not only crypto market but stocks also being crushed, tis are correlatable since stocks and crypto are probably have one investors too.

No i don't think Crypto and Stocks has one investors,Yeah maybe there are few whos betting on both market but not the majority,because we can read many posts here that about a newly enter investor that once from stocks and same as the old timer investors here that wanted to try stocks.

[Savemore]

The market isn't looking as what we think for Bullrun this month, not even sure next month. What I was thinking to see it late this quarter or early days in the 4th quarter. Yes, we all know the market is truly unpredictable but the base of what is shown in previous years, mostly we saw pumps at those particular days and seems to be possible at this time.
But somehow we understand the current situation and to believe that it will affect the trend.
I don't know how halving could influence the market situation that is why I'd never expected and think of it until we saw recoveries of the global economic situation.

The current trend is in sideways and we can observe that the price is consolidating inside a box, the longer the consolidation the better. There are now also spikes of volume that can be a good thing because it indicates that there is something cooking where maybe some whales are now getting massive positions.

I do not know why many traders are relying to specific month for them to identify trend, it is better if we will identify the trend through market structure and not relying on the time or specific month.

[Becky666]

Unlikely,
If you have bitcoin you might like to believe it will go up, in the same way a church goer believes he will go to heaven.
The reality is, neither will happen.

Definitely on point, this months aren't the months of bullish according to Bitcoin history, this are the bearish month we're entry right now and due to the pandemic we are not going to see price rise but expecting another dip. For those who are still looking for a pump from the current state of Bitcoin price should rethink and research how bitcoin move in those months. We may not see what many speculators have predicted but hopefully after this year. July to October are always months of bearish, so, let's just hope for price surge November to December 2020.

[justdimin]

I feel like the worse thing that could happen right now (which is not really that bad at all) would be a fall first and an increase later on.

It looks like we need some sort of "bow and arrow" type of thing, I don't know what it is called in economics but the thing where it drops a bit first then shoots sky high when nobody expects, there must be a name for it. That looks to be a realistic thing right now, like break one support level down and go to the other one without breaking it, that means it will be at the second support level. Then shoot back up and break like 3 resistance levels which would put it above $10k once again. This is however the "worse" thing that could happen, the better ones like going directly up to a higher level is still quite valid as well.

[Republikcoin.com]

July is here and bitcoin seem to keep loosing volume. The corona pandemic has really changed the equations we have before. I think and I do believe that bitcoin is not going to move very significantly this month.

right now we are in July, and it seems that the price of bitcoin is almost $ 9500. I honestly expect an increase of up to $ 10k, but that seems pretty difficult. well, this is still the beginning of the month, if there is a possibility of a pump, then the price of bitcoin will rise in the 3rd or 4th week of this month.

[peter0425]

The price of Bitcoin was hovering around $10,000 in February before the coronavirus pandemic led to the U.S. stock market to correct sharply. At that time, analysts expected BTC to pull back as the price had also rejected at $10,500 which is a pivotal resistance level.

Surprisingly, Bitcoin price dropped rapidly as it fell below $6,000, ultimately dropping to a yearly low at $3,600 on BitMEX. This caused mayhem in the cryptocurrency market as more than $1 billion worth of leveraged positions were liquidated.

According to Woo, Bitcoin was positioned for a bull market before the coronavirus pandemic affected nearly all risk-on markets. Woo’s new model, which accurately marked the start of four previous bull runs, indicates Bitcoin is preparing for another uptrend in the near-term.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-bitcoin-price-model-suggests-exponential-bull-run-in-one-month

How do you think?

Sorry but there are no signal that this will come at the moment.

Yeah this is 3rd quarter but the market seems nothing to Go top for this season.

Maybe next month?who knows right?

i will continue my activities and purchase whenever theres a chance.

[pooya87]

right now we are in July, and it seems that the price of bitcoin is almost $ 9500. I honestly expect an increase of up to $ 10k, but that seems pretty difficult. well, this is still the beginning of the month,

there is nothing hard about reaching $10k, we have been hitting that target multiple times for the past 9 months or more pretty easily. the hard part is breaking that resistance and going above it and that will not happen unless the accumulation stage ends.

if there is a possibility of a pump, then the price of bitcoin will rise in the 3rd or 4th week of this month.

sorry to disappoint but bitcoin will never get pumped because it is not a pump and dump shitcoin and even though the market could still be manipulated but it is big enough to prevent pump and dumps.
we will see a bull market soon though.

[minairia3]

No i don't think Crypto and Stocks has one investors,Yeah maybe there are few whos betting on both market but not the majority,because we can read many posts here that about a newly enter investor that once from stocks and same as the old timer investors here that wanted to try stocks.

If you think about it. Those whales having funds on stock are majority of players in crypto. I know this, cause I joined signal for trading, and there are more whales who are doing an arbitrary trading via stocks and crypto, if the stocks are down they are looking on crypto if there are potential profit coins. Thats how they operate. We would not know the specifics but my guess whales on stock are probably whales on crypto. Of course spread your eggs on different basket.

[Spaffin]

No i don't think Crypto and Stocks has one investors,Yeah maybe there are few whos betting on both market but not the majority,because we can read many posts here that about a newly enter investor that once from stocks and same as the old timer investors here that wanted to try stocks.

If you think about it. Those whales having funds on stock are majority of players in crypto. I know this, cause I joined signal for trading, and there are more whales who are doing an arbitrary trading via stocks and crypto, if the stocks are down they are looking on crypto if there are potential profit coins. Thats how they operate. We would not know the specifics but my guess whales on stock are probably whales on crypto. Of course spread your eggs on different basket.

Indeed, today there are quite a few large investors who are strong players not only in the stock market, but also in the cryptocurrency market. but based on this, it is very strange to observe when the stock market falls, and the indicators of the cryptocurrency market fall a little more, and if the stock market grows, then the prices for cryptocurrencies will not grow so actively. It’s very difficult to understand how big whales manage their capital.
 Nevertheless, your advice is one of the most important rules for all investors and other cryptocurrency users. To protect your capital, it is better to invest your money in different cryptocurrencies, at least 10 of the highest rated cryptocurrencies in your portfolio.

[Oceat]

Bitcoin halving just happened last May and someone thinks that it could actually give a boost within two months? In the previous halving record it takes almost a year before we could actually tell that there is a bullish market. I think every new people who joined the market always thought that bull run is just around the corner but for some people who actually stayed long on this market knows that how the market moves.

[wozzek23]

Looking at the price right now, we could say that price has moved from $9k levels to $9.25k levels and that is really a good improvement. I can't say that says bull run at all because it is only a 3% or so increase and that is nowhere near where we can say it is a bull run, it has to be over 10% to say that but it is at least a good improvement. I would say that we are at least not bear, and "not bear" is as good as bull at this moment.

July has to be just not bear for a month in order to tell people that bitcoin can move better, which is why I believe there is a chance we could maybe not be a bull this month, but prepare ourselves for a bull in August/September if we continue like this. I would say reaching $10k could be the best we could have this month and not that much more honestly.

[KTChampions]

Bitcoin halving just happened last May and someone thinks that it could actually give a boost within two months? In the previous halving record it takes almost a year before we could actually tell that there is a bullish market. I think every new people who joined the market always thought that bull run is just around the corner but for some people who actually stayed long on this market knows that how the market moves.

I agree with you, but there are other arguments besides halving - for example, the global crisis. Many people expected that during a crisis when governments print money without stopping, bitcoin will be more bullish. But at the moment, bitcoin has only increased its correlation with the stock exchange.