Miner's Strike!

[Reid]

After the halving, May 2020 we didn't see much movement on the bitcoin price.
It just moves at the range of $9,000 - $9800.
Most veterans traders will see this as an abnormal event of bitcoin price. 
It should be jumping with thousands of dollars just like what happened in March 2020 @$4800 then back to almost 9k.
It had been 2 months post halving.

Are the miners on strike to sell their coins?
Is this ($9200+) price of bitcoin not enough to secure all the bills that needs to be paid and some profit?
Are they keeping rewards pre-halving waiting for demand to take effect?
They cannot buy more bitcoin to increase the price due to pandemic? (Saving it for self necessities)

I don't have proof. I am just speculating here. 
What do you think?

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[jackg]

So you think we need to jump down to $3800? Do you have a reason to think a drop was imminant?

I think a drop is likely to come but I wouldn't put it on being now, it could be until September or even later before we rally up...

I doubt miners have this much of an affect on the price too, otherwise surely bitmain would just keep seeing how high they could pump it (or would've done when they had a large share).

[stompix]

It should be jumping with thousands of dollars just like what happened in March 2020 @$4800 then back to almost 9k.

WHY?

Are the miners on strike to sell their coins?

If they would be then there would be fewer coins on the market and the price would normally go up, not be flat. This contradicts what those veteran traders of yours claim.

What do you think?

That a lot of people have got used to stories about x100 again in a few years and when those don't happen again and again are starting to doubt everything, trying to see conspiracy everywhere, and blame whatever they find for the fact that just buying some coins and not doing anything else is not getting them rich overnight.
So, patience and don't plan your future on million on dollars that will sprout from your wallet overnight.


LE:

So you think we need to jump down to $3800?

My impression was that he is amazed we're not back to 15k or even higher.

[Reid]

So you think we need to jump down to $3800? Do you have a reason to think a drop was imminant?

On the contrary, I think the miners are having good thoughts about what will happen next.
They are not selling, so a larger chance of a pump could happen.

So you think we need to jump down to $3800?

My impression was that he is amazed we're not back to 15k or even higher.

I don't. I am just intrigued with how it is happening now. It's just way different with what it used to be.
I am not a fan of the jumping price like the 20k mark.

[jackg]

So you think we need to jump down to $3800? Do you have a reason to think a drop was imminant?

On the contrary, I think the miners are having good thoughts about what will happen next.
They are not selling, so a larger chance of a pump could happen.

I think a lot of people are expecting an ath in q4 this financial year (Jan to Mar next year) or maybe q2, either way if I wee a miner and could find a way to finance the building or equipment to cover the electricity rates the why wouldn't you... Some predicted $300k some predicted just exceeding the ath, its still probably worth the risk especially if your funds ar eloaded with a stop loss/alerts anyway

[exstasie]

After the halving, May 2020 we didn't see much movement on the bitcoin price.
It just moves at the range of $9,000 - $9800.
Most veterans traders will see this as an abnormal event of bitcoin price.  
It should be jumping with thousands of dollars just like what happened in March 2020 @$4800 then back to almost 9k.

Not abnormal at all. Something similar happened in the run up to the July 2016 halving. BTC doubled in price directly prior to the halving, then ranged (and eventually crashed 40% in total) in the months that followed.

On the contrary, I think the miners are having good thoughts about what will happen next.
They are not selling, so a larger chance of a pump could happen.

It's true, miner outflows (in general and to exchanges) have been trending down. That tells me weaker miners squeezed by the halving are probably done selling, and stronger miners are waiting for a rally to sell into.

Outflow of Bitcoin From Miners at Lows Not Seen Since 2010

Keep in mind, miners (just like traders) are not always right.

[Febo]

It should be jumping with thousands of dollars just like what happened in March 2020 @$4800 then back to almost 9k.

How can you call what happened in mid March a normal event? We had pandemic and half of world got locked down. That lock down lasted for 2 months.  Of course Bitcoin price crashed and of course it recovered as it always do. Current price is almost identical as few months after halving in 2016.  Late summer times in crypto trading are usually slow. Little volume since traders are taking vacations.

[gentlemand]

It was boring and dead after the previous halving. Same this time. The excitement is over. No halving hype. No virus terror any more either. That type of spasm can only happen once.

As for miners, any sensible miner sells their coin off market. There's no need to go on an exchange. OTC will take care of it. They're a market irrelevance.

[jackg]

Everyone is just waiting for the mega bull market to appear out of nowhere. I don't think it works that way. But I don't discard the fact that I might be stupid 

I dunno. There's a chance the 2017 spike was caused by new retail seeing what happened before and thinking it'd happen again. 2015 was extremely static price wise form what to remember.

As for miners, any sensible miner sells their coin off market. There's no need to go on an exchange. OTC will take care of it. They're a market irrelevance.

I dunno there might be some foolish enough tondump funds on the open market but yeah, weren't otc trades starting to be tracked though too or is that just a few desks that started tracking rates? I think otc btc buyers probably try to lock in a price for the month to keep the miner providing them funds too (and I think we're up more months than we're down)...

[btc_angela]

It was boring and dead after the previous halving. Same this time. The excitement is over. No halving hype. No virus terror any more either. That type of spasm can only happen once.

As for miners, any sensible miner sells their coin off market. There's no need to go on an exchange. OTC will take care of it. They're a market irrelevance.

Right, there's no more hype after the halving, so no FOMO to push the price to what people wanted, $10k at least. But if there are no news to sell the market, then we will see investors looking for other ways to make money, maybe they got on board with the Defi and the whole staking. For miners, its been two months as the OP has said, those who wishes to cash out or wanted to exit the mining business is sure be gone by now. No sensible miners are trading thru exchanges, better options for them is OTC.

[-CryptoViking-]

If you look at BTC historically we should expect this lull to continue through August and to at least mid September. With most likely going down slowly to 8k, 7k at most, not expecting to lose more then 20% of the current value, most likely numbers will be closer to 13-15%.

After that Covid second wave can be a factor and cause some disruption with further flash decline and recovery, but I think personally that Ocotber will be the beginning of bull, slowly rising to 9k-10k values again, breaking 10k-11,500 in November and rallying towards 17k in December, Jaunary.

After that I'm not sure if we are gonna range or continue and reach new ATH.

Of course I don't know shit, but this is my prediction in general.

[TravelMug]

If you look at BTC historically we should expect this lull to continue through August and to at least mid September. With most likely going down slowly to 8k, 7k at most, not expecting to lose more then 20% of the current value, most likely numbers will be closer to 13-15%.

After that Covid second wave can be a factor and cause some disruption with further flash decline and recovery, but I think personally that Ocotber will be the beginning of bull, slowly rising to 9k-10k values again, breaking 10k-11,500 in November and rallying towards 17k in December, Jaunary.

After that I'm not sure if we are gonna range or continue and reach new ATH.

Of course I don't know shit, but this is my prediction in general.

I'm more positive that there could be some movement around the September timeline. Usually in the last quarter, people who have bitcoin in their radar or at least a pro bitcoiner will likely invest specially if the price is on a decline or too low.

We all know that bitcoin is an attractive investment, and even though that we are still in the pandemic, investors are still looking to make more money and bitcoin is a good options. And even if there are this so called miners strike, it will just have a short term effect. The price are still base on supply and demand.

[dothebeats]

It's not abnormal for miners to hoard their coins for quite some time and do nothing with it. They have been doing this for years and I don't see that practice changing since they only sell coins for the maintenance of their farms and some profits. Bitcoin swinging on the $9000-$9800 ranges and staying only on this range doesn't mean something isn't right. Most are used to bitcoin's volatility that they no longer acknowledge the fact that bitcoin also has its own period of stagnation or stability. I would go on to say that there isn't much incentives for people to trade hard with bitcoin, and most are into different things as of this moment. But yeah, I myself am hoping for a bull run, though the situation isn't apt for these things to happen just yet.

[buwaytress]

Seriously, yeah, why would "veteran" miners be surprised? We have had just the two halving events in the past and in both cases it took months before any significant swing happened in the market. If miners were expecting more of the same, then surprised would be the last thing they should be.

Hashrate after and now following the same patterns too, so clearly, they're not surprised.

[exstasie]

It was boring and dead after the previous halving. Same this time.

From the top of the 2016 halving pump to the next swing low in August, it was a 40% drop. Not exactly boring! Granted the Bitfinex hack may have amplified the final dump, but for comparison, that kind of drop would put us in the $6,200s. Quite a drop from here.

No virus terror any more either. That type of spasm can only happen once.

I agree, we won't see anything equal to the March crash's magnitude. I do however think if the virus keeps up at this rate, we'll see lockdowns in the US again. Then the markets will take a big dump.

And there's our chance at the low $6,000s.

[pooya87]

the only reason why this stage (being stuck below $10k and not going up) is unusual is because price was already rising before the panic sell broke out of nowhere causing the rise to stop and the market to see a sudden and huge drop.
otherwise seeing price stable in a range is not new and not unusual at all. and it has very little to do with halving and miners. the miners are already selling to stay afloat just like they have always been doing.

the main reason why we are stuck here at this point if you ask me is greed. everyone is waiting for a better entry price (such as $6000 ) that is why they are not buying but since the buy support at $9k is very strong they don't get their desire either. as a result they are now stuck waiting and not making any move.
usually when this happens, the only thing we end up seeing is a small break out above the resistance then a massive FOMO.

[Lucius]

After the halving, May 2020 we didn't see much movement on the bitcoin price.
It just moves at the range of $9,000 - $9800.
Most veterans traders will see this as an abnormal event of bitcoin price. 
It should be jumping with thousands of dollars just like what happened in March 2020 @$4800 then back to almost 9k.
It had been 2 months post halving.

You mix things that are completely different, so what does a sharp decline in all markets (including Bitcoin) have to do with what happens after halving? What happened in March 2020 is the result of a pandemic, and halving itself has never been a sign of a new ATH - as shown by the examples of the past 2 halvings. I have to admit that I am disappointed to see that some people are thinking in the completely wrong direction, and do not have the ability to look at Bitcoin in a much broader context than itself.

Are the miners on strike to sell their coins?
Is this ($9200+) price of bitcoin not enough to secure all the bills that needs to be paid and some profit?
Are they keeping rewards pre-halving waiting for demand to take effect?
They cannot buy more bitcoin to increase the price due to pandemic? (Saving it for self necessities)

Miners sell only what they need to sell, why would they sell everything they mine if there is no need for it? It should also be emphasized that miners are becoming less and less important link in the sense that the daily reward has been reduced to only 900 BTC. As we know they mostly sell over OTC, where they mostly get premium prices for their fresh (clean) coins.

Mining is still profitable, especially in China where mining costs are in the price range between $5000 - $6000.

With $0.04/kwh, miners based in China said that the breakeven cost to mine Bitcoin hovers in the $5,000 to $6,000 range.

Even individual miners running commercial mining equipment like the Antminer S9 is operating at a breakeven cost of $8,206.

“To be completely accurate: Given current difficulty, 0.04$/kWh and S9 running custom firmware bringing it down to 71W per TH efficiency. The cost to mine 1 BTC is 8206.64$. Meaning its still profitable,” one miner said.

[batang_bitcoin]

You can't just compare the month of March and the months after the halving. Yes, bitcoin is volatile and can jump to thousands of dollars for a week or two and sometimes it just can't.
I didn't expected that there will eventually a bull just right after the halving. Give it like about a year or a year and half and we'll probably see the effect of it.

[semobo]

Due to pandemic the complete economic structure is under collapsed status which also affected the post halving bump on bitcoin prices.But I think mining forms are still continue to hold until they see enough price bumps, without doing this they can't make real profits.
In 2020, we are not going to see anything better for us anymore,I feel survival of this year itself a great task.

[Reid]

I have to admit that I am disappointed to see that some people are thinking in the completely wrong direction, and do not have the ability to look at Bitcoin in a much broader context than itself.

I think there is a misunderstanding here.
Perhaps my approach is somehow wrong due to a lack of how it had been expressed in English.
I am sorry for that, but I am trying.

The point is not really about the pricing. I don't really care much about it since I believe in the future of bitcoin.

It's about the strength of the miners to change the wave.
I know back then, they could buy more bitcoins while still mining to enhance their profit before they sell in full blast.
Manipulation for their electric bills and some profit which I don't think as a bad thing since they are in business.

For others:
It's not veteran miners.

Most veterans traders will see this as an abnormal event of bitcoin price.