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Author Topic: The Bitcoin Sentiment Indicator  (Read 4369 times)
Gabi
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January 04, 2012, 10:49:16 PM
 #41

Voted, 82.9 now
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January 04, 2012, 11:15:56 PM
 #42

So like uhm, this isn't a contrarian indicator... yet?  right?

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January 05, 2012, 12:02:24 AM
 #43

83
cypherdoc
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January 05, 2012, 12:22:02 AM
 #44

so quiet around here.  looks like everyone went to the bank to get their USD's over to mtgox.
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January 05, 2012, 12:22:52 AM
 #45

So like uhm, this isn't a contrarian indicator... yet?  right?

Right, not yet.  S3025 explained that when sentiment matches the trend, you get third wave behavior.  He's talking about a wave down in his example, but its equally true for waves up.

I see your point that news are overall very bearish even in mainstream, but this fits to the third wave behavior.. third waves are "the point of recognition" where finally all is negatie AND prices fall (and the contrarian view does not work anymore, expect for short term bounces from oversold conditions)

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January 05, 2012, 12:26:29 AM
 #46

So like uhm, this isn't a contrarian indicator... yet?  right?

Right, not yet.  S3025 explained that when sentiment matches the trend, you get third wave behavior.  He's talking about a wave down in his example, but its equally true for waves up.

I see your point that news are overall very bearish even in mainstream, but this fits to the third wave behavior.. third waves are "the point of recognition" where finally all is negatie AND prices fall (and the contrarian view does not work anymore, expect for short term bounces from oversold conditions)

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bitcoinBull
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January 05, 2012, 12:37:50 AM
 #47

Stellar!

Looks like the rise is starting to accelerate; we'll probably gap up.  Too much faster and we'll go parabolic (even on a log scale).

Its at the end of a trend when the sentiment is a contrarian indicator.  That's when you get the fifth and final wave before the reversal.

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January 05, 2012, 12:40:39 AM
 #48

just remember things don't look so imposing when you look at it this way.
we got WAY oversold due to shorting:

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January 05, 2012, 12:48:04 AM
 #49

just remember things don't look so imposing when you look at it this way.
we got WAY oversold due to shorting:



Now Nagle's going like, "oh wait, that's not how a bubble is supposed to chart!"  Grin

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January 05, 2012, 12:54:13 AM
 #50

One other thing: the weekly dollar volume.  The current week has already surpassed recent ones by going over $2m.  But it just started on Jan 2.  By the time the week is over, the dollar volume could be in the top three for the year.

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January 05, 2012, 12:58:06 AM
 #51

looks like everyone's back from the bank!!!!!
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January 05, 2012, 03:33:08 AM
 #52

i think it looks a bit more imposing when you look at at this way...



we should have tested 1 on the way down imho, but all the serious volume didn't start until the first bubble was up around $5-$10, that means there is an awful lot of people who think that $2 is a bargain.

So maybe ~$2 is resistance now. It's getting pretty hard to stick to my conviction that we are going down again before we go back up, I'm dying to jump on board this train!!!

Patience and discipline, just gotta keep telling myself.... and if i'm wrong well... meh

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January 05, 2012, 03:38:35 AM
 #53

Patience and discipline, just gotta keep telling myself.... and if i'm wrong well... meh

If you're wrong, you just missed the opportunity of a lifetime.

If you're right, well... meh.  It will go up again.

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January 05, 2012, 03:40:28 AM
 #54

Patience and discipline, just gotta keep telling myself.... and if i'm wrong well... meh

If you're wrong, you just missed the opportunity of a lifetime.

If you're right, well... meh.  It will go up again.

its the former. i lived thru the Spring minute by minute and this is exactly the same, except this time we go further.
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January 05, 2012, 03:43:14 AM
 #55

Patience and discipline, just gotta keep telling myself.... and if i'm wrong well... meh

If you're wrong, you just missed the opportunity of a lifetime.

If you're right, well... meh.  It will go up again.

its the former. i lived thru the Spring minute by minute and this is exactly the same, except this time we go further.

I don't see any reason why we're going to go further.  I could see the price getting to $10, but I expect more profit taking this time.  What makes you think we're going further?
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January 05, 2012, 03:46:44 AM
 #56

Patience and discipline, just gotta keep telling myself.... and if i'm wrong well... meh

If you're wrong, you just missed the opportunity of a lifetime.

If you're right, well... meh.  It will go up again.

its the former. i lived thru the Spring minute by minute and this is exactly the same, except this time we go further.

I don't see any reason why we're going to go further.  I could see the price getting to $10, but I expect more profit taking this time.  What makes you think we're going further?

read my blog.  the amount of fiat money circulating round the world is enormous.  and we're about to pump it up even more.  Bitcoin is such a tiny mkt now but yet a revolutionary idea that fits well with the internet age.

the gold and silver mkt is done, the euro is in trouble, the Fed is about to embark on QE3 so ppl are looking for a store of value.  Bitcoin is IT.
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January 05, 2012, 03:49:14 AM
 #57

Patience and discipline, just gotta keep telling myself.... and if i'm wrong well... meh

If you're wrong, you just missed the opportunity of a lifetime.

If you're right, well... meh.  It will go up again.

its the former. i lived thru the Spring minute by minute and this is exactly the same, except this time we go further.

Missing an opportunity of a lifetime... I don't know if I could just go meh and forget about it.  Wink

I'm sure a lot of people are already going "meh" about not buying at $5 when they had the chance earlier today. Forget last Oct-Dec..
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January 05, 2012, 03:57:27 AM
 #58

Patience and discipline, just gotta keep telling myself.... and if i'm wrong well... meh

If you're wrong, you just missed the opportunity of a lifetime.

If you're right, well... meh.  It will go up again.

its the former. i lived thru the Spring minute by minute and this is exactly the same, except this time we go further.

So everyone keeps saying... *everyone* - that seems a bit too bullish for me.

My long term holdings remain intact (lucky enough to acquire those at ~$1) Not quite as many as I'd like, I was aiming to add to them but I ended up with all US Dollars with the whole move from bitcoinica, once I'd got it all back on gox things were starting to look a bit price at $5 so i just set my bids and wait. Shame none of them got filled Cheesy

I can't really buy now, If I miss out on profits in a rally from 6-10 I've missed out on a 66% opportunity. A bit disappointing.

If I can pick up some coin around $2-$3 and then take it to $10, that would be far more exciting! This is just my play money we are talking about here after all Smiley

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January 05, 2012, 05:05:05 AM
 #59

I don't see any reason why we're going to go further.  I could see the price getting to $10, but I expect more profit taking this time.  What makes you think we're going further?

I'm also concerned about topping at $10, but not overly concerned for a couple of reasons.  First is that the vast majority of the "profit taking" will be USD that stays in play; sellers will use it to accumulate more bitcoins on a dip.  Secondly, I think the market is much healthier now (compared to April-June 2011), because there is much more automated market making.  I'm not sure to what extent there was any back then.  The market makers now are smarter, more experienced, and very well funded.

Additionally, this time the market already has a history with a range of an all-time-high of $32 and had the time to find its bottom at $2.  Those were two completely unknowns before.  If the long-term trend is up, then the new bottom will be higher than $2, take $5 or $10 as low estimates.  If this wave doesn't bring a new all-time-high, then I would expect the market to trade in the $5/$10-$32 range for a while before it makes a longer-term decision.

Another factual difference is that the April-June 2011 rally started from a new all-time-high of $1.10.  This rally is simply reversing a downtrend that started at $32, so in all likelihood it should pass $10 even easier than before.  And I would expect it to make new highs sooner or later, if the long-term trend is up.

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Gabi
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January 05, 2012, 12:05:35 PM
 #60

Patience and discipline, just gotta keep telling myself.... and if i'm wrong well... meh

If you're wrong, you just missed the opportunity of a lifetime.

If you're right, well... meh.  It will go up again.

its the former. i lived thru the Spring minute by minute and this is exactly the same, except this time we go further.

Missing an opportunity of a lifetime... I don't know if I could just go meh and forget about it.  Wink

I'm sure a lot of people are already going "meh" about not buying at $5 when they had the chance earlier today. Forget last Oct-Dec..
Expect a lot of threads about whining about the EARLY ADOPTERS "omgomg they bought btc at 2$, it's unfair, now it's 10$!!!!"
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