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Author Topic: Thoughts on BTC within Hyperinflationary/Economically Authoritarian Countries?  (Read 91 times)
Hispo (OP)
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October 03, 2020, 09:54:23 PM
Last edit: October 04, 2020, 05:27:18 AM by Hispo
 #1

What are your thoughts about BTC being use as a store of value in hyperinflationary/ authoritarian economies like mine (Venezuela) ?

Do you think is it an opportunity for bitcoin in terms of adoption?

Do you think that people within this situation should opt for other more conservative alternatives?

What would an authoritarian government do when realizes people is using something they cannot completely control?

I already have some idea about these topics, but I would not be wise of me not to ask others.

If you have any other comments in the matter, feel free to share them.

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October 03, 2020, 10:18:47 PM
 #2

It's viable if they pick up a currency widely used like the dollar or the euro.

If they try to control everything, there's potential they could just cut off your Internet and kill everything that way.
You could still potentially sell some for cash etc but because of transaction times with most coins they'd probably expect you'd double spend on them unless they get you to wait for it to confirm.
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October 03, 2020, 10:34:41 PM
 #3

What are your thoughts about BTC being use as a store of value in hyperinflationary/ authoritarian economies like mine (Venezuela) ?
Bitcoin is flexible, meaning people use it differently based on how they view it; it can be a store of value, although it is highly volatile. It can also be considered as an alternative investment which is resistant to inflation due to its controlled supply and fully decentralized.

Do you think is it an opportunity for bitcoin in terms of adoption?
Yes. Bad fiscal policies would negatively affect the currency and reduce the confidence of the citizens, leading then to seek alternative assets to escape currency devaluation and inflation, resulting in increased adoption of Bitcoin. This is the situation in turkey where Bitcoin crossed its ATH against their local currency.

Do you think that people within this situation should opt for other more conservative alternatives?
Investing is a personal decision and would depend on the individual's knowledge, level of risk tolerance, amount they can spare on investments etcetera. It's also not a case of one or the other, with an efficient investment plan a person can hold bitcoins as well as more conservative assets like Gold.

What would an authoritarian government do when realizes people is using something they cannot completely control?
Regulate it, to reduce usage and also generate revenue as it can be taxed. A more extreme approach would be banning it.

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October 04, 2020, 02:30:16 AM
 #4

What are your thoughts about BTC being use as a store of value in hyperinflationary/ authoritarian economies like mine (Venezuela) ?

If your purpose is storing a large amount of value which you intend to keep for a long period of time, I guess BTC is much preferred compared to foreign currencies such as the USD or the Euro. They're also shedding value regularly. But if you are just trying to get away from losing much of your worth in so quick a time due to hyperinflation but you need to withdraw from it every now and then for your daily expenses, then shifting to USD or Euro is the more convenient option.

Quote
Do you think is it an opportunity for bitcoin in terms of adoption?

Yes, of course, but we all know how Bitcoin is being perceived or treated differently now. That's adoption as a store of value and not as a currency.

Quote
Do you think that people within this situation should opt for other more conservative alternatives?

Like what? Real estate properties, for example? I guess so. It is always nice to diversify.

Quote
What would an authoritarian government do when realizes people is using something they cannot completely control?

They will make it illegal within their territory. The worst scenario is that they will aggressively crack down on its use and trade. But I don't think it is easy to do. With BTC, there is no office you can raid, license you can revoke, person you can arrest and detain, and so on. The online world is their battlefield and it would be harder for them to dominate, much less win, there.

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October 04, 2020, 04:04:22 AM
 #5

What are your thoughts about BTC being use as a store of value in hyperinflationary/ authoritarian economies like mine (Venezuela) ?
BTC was adopted in Venezuela because of TINA (There is no alternative). Under pressure and a total US economic embargo, BTC and cryptocurrencies were the only options. Income depends on exports of crude oil, national consumption relies on imports and dependence on the dollar is high, so that the embargo directly causes hyperinflation.

Quote
Do you think is it an opportunity for bitcoin in terms of adoption?
The opportunity for the adoption of BTC at the individual level is enormous and society is required to know what cryptocurrency is.

Quote
Do you think that people within this situation should opt for other more conservative alternatives?
Beginner investors who are just interested in investing. Investors usually choose the type of investment that is stable, low risk or even no risk at all. This type of investor must have long-term investment objectives because the value obtained in the short term is not much. Usually the investment options are gold, savings, deposits, and money market mutual funds.

Quote
What would an authoritarian government do when realizes people is using something they cannot completely control?
This type of leadership puts the power in the hands of one person. The leader acts as the sole ruler. The position and duties of subordinates are merely executors of decisions, orders, and even the will of the leadership. The leader views himself as more in all respects than his subordinates. The ability of subordinates is always looked down upon so that they are considered unable to do something without being ordered.

Leadership requires the ability to use the sources of influence they have. Included in the category of sources of power are physical means of coercion, wealth and property (economy), normative, position, expertise, information, social status, personal popularity, and organized masses. Maduro's power uses physical means such as traditional and modern weapons, conventional weapons, forced labor, prison, technology and weapons-using apparatus. In developing countries, conventional weapons are not only used to defend sovereignty from outside penetration but also to break the opposition and groups that are considered to oppose power for reasons of order and stability.

So as long as Maduro thinks that BTC can benefit his government it will still be used even though it is decentralized.

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October 04, 2020, 04:31:47 AM
 #6

When the authoritarian country starts using Bitcoin (or any uncontrolled assets) that means the government can't make something else to save the collapsing economy. Why did Venezuela switch to crypto?
Quote
Venezuela president Nicolas Maduro says the country is to start using cryptocurrency in both domestic and global trade, as part of efforts to neutralize crippling U.S. economic sanctions.
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October 04, 2020, 05:21:50 AM
 #7

It's viable if they pick up a currency widely used like the dollar or the euro.

If they try to control everything, there's potential they could just cut off your Internet and kill everything that way.
You could still potentially sell some for cash etc but because of transaction times with most coins they'd probably expect you'd double spend on them unless they get you to wait for it to confirm.

I don't think they would not dare to cut off the internet.

Bread & Circus , we ran out of bread, they need to go on with the circus.


And yes, most of people here now bow down in front of the "almighty dollar".


What are your thoughts about BTC being use as a store of value in hyperinflationary/ authoritarian economies like mine (Venezuela) ?

If your purpose is storing a large amount of value which you intend to keep for a long period of time, I guess BTC is much preferred compared to foreign currencies such as the USD or the Euro. They're also shedding value regularly. But if you are just trying to get away from losing much of your worth in so quick a time due to hyperinflation but you need to withdraw from it every now and then for your daily expenses, then shifting to USD or Euro is the more convenient option.

Quote
Do you think is it an opportunity for bitcoin in terms of adoption?

Yes, of course, but we all know how Bitcoin is being perceived or treated differently now. That's adoption as a store of value and not as a currency.

Quote
Do you think that people within this situation should opt for other more conservative alternatives?

Like what? Real estate properties, for example? I guess so. It is always nice to diversify.

Quote
What would an authoritarian government do when realizes people is using something they cannot completely control?

They will make it illegal within their territory. The worst scenario is that they will aggressively crack down on its use and trade. But I don't think it is easy to do. With BTC, there is no office you can raid, license you can revoke, person you can arrest and detain, and so on. The online world is their battlefield and it would be harder for them to dominate, much less win, there.

There is not much choices to diversify here, tbh.

Government actually tries to centralize the mining (registring the miners, imposing a "mining license" and creating a "national mining pool"). One can get in trouble if caught mining outside their twisted system.

What are your thoughts about BTC being use as a store of value in hyperinflationary/ authoritarian economies like mine (Venezuela) ?
BTC was adopted in Venezuela because of TINA (There is no alternative). Under pressure and a total US economic embargo, BTC and cryptocurrencies were the only options. Income depends on exports of crude oil, national consumption relies on imports and dependence on the dollar is high, so that the embargo directly causes hyperinflation.

Quote
Do you think is it an opportunity for bitcoin in terms of adoption?
The opportunity for the adoption of BTC at the individual level is enormous and society is required to know what cryptocurrency is.

Quote
Do you think that people within this situation should opt for other more conservative alternatives?
Beginner investors who are just interested in investing. Investors usually choose the type of investment that is stable, low risk or even no risk at all. This type of investor must have long-term investment objectives because the value obtained in the short term is not much. Usually the investment options are gold, savings, deposits, and money market mutual funds.

Quote
What would an authoritarian government do when realizes people is using something they cannot completely control?
This type of leadership puts the power in the hands of one person. The leader acts as the sole ruler. The position and duties of subordinates are merely executors of decisions, orders, and even the will of the leadership. The leader views himself as more in all respects than his subordinates. The ability of subordinates is always looked down upon so that they are considered unable to do something without being ordered.

Leadership requires the ability to use the sources of influence they have. Included in the category of sources of power are physical means of coercion, wealth and property (economy), normative, position, expertise, information, social status, personal popularity, and organized masses. Maduro's power uses physical means such as traditional and modern weapons, conventional weapons, forced labor, prison, technology and weapons-using apparatus. In developing countries, conventional weapons are not only used to defend sovereignty from outside penetration but also to break the opposition and groups that are considered to oppose power for reasons of order and stability.

So as long as Maduro thinks that BTC can benefit his government it will still be used even though it is decentralized.

Society is required to know that crypto is, but I find this context to be surreal. Many of us are not investors.
We were just seeking for a shelter in this crazy inflationary storm, back in 2016-2018 if you kept your money in your bank account for 3-4 days in a row you lost about 40% of the acquisitive power. Local currency is like a bomb which you want to pass to another person before it explodes in your pocket.

BTC is volatile but at least is not always going downhill.


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October 04, 2020, 05:58:53 AM
 #8

Anything in those countries is suitable for being a store of value other than money, which basically has no value except in the strength of the central bank and the extent of the sincerity and accuracy of the promises it makes to the citizens that seem very collapsed.
Bitcoin will work well as a store of value for those who have a lot of money or are not afraid of losing it, but it is very volatile, so perhaps when you want to sell your coins, you may be surprised that the price is much lower than he had planned.

The word store of value is an economic term, and economic solutions must be found accordingly. Bitcoin is one of the best options.

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October 04, 2020, 06:11:33 AM
 #9

What are your thoughts about BTC being use as a store of value in hyperinflationary/ authoritarian economies like mine (Venezuela) ?

Do you think is it an opportunity for bitcoin in terms of adoption?

Do you think that people within this situation should opt for other more conservative alternatives?

What would an authoritarian government do when realizes people is using something they cannot completely control?

I already have some idea about these topics, but I would not be wise of me not to ask others.

If you have any other comments in the matter, feel free to share them.

Anything that experiences less volatility than the local currency is an improvement over the local currency, and the reverse is true as well. It's why Bitcoin is not an improvement over the USD currently but can be an improvement over the Bolivar. If possible to own, the USD would be to hold than bitcoin in Venezuela, but bitcoin may be a lot easier to get your hands on compared to dollars.

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October 04, 2020, 06:37:47 AM
 #10

What are your thoughts about BTC being use as a store of value in hyperinflationary/ authoritarian economies like mine (Venezuela) ?

Do you think is it an opportunity for bitcoin in terms of adoption?

Do you think that people within this situation should opt for other more conservative alternatives?

What would an authoritarian government do when realizes people is using something they cannot completely control?

I already have some idea about these topics, but I would not be wise of me not to ask others.

If you have any other comments in the matter, feel free to share them.

This is an old topic that has been discussed a lot.
Some authoritarian countries are very anti-cryptocurrency oriented,while I don't know what is the exact position of the government of Venezuela in regards of Bitcoin and using cryptocurrencies inside the territory of Venezuela.Is Maduro anti-Bitcoin?Is he pro-crypto?The PETRO coin project was a failure,but I assume that the Venezuelan government isn't that much into the anti-crypto team.Maybe the government is neutral and doesn't mind people in Venezuela to use Bitcoin/altcoins in their daily life.

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October 04, 2020, 11:49:42 PM
 #11

The people in these authoritarian countries are often very poor and not well educated, so it's hard for them to use Bitcoin, because it requires some knowledge to use it safely and effectively. And fees is another problem, people who have monthly salary of $5 can't afford to pay even $2 network fee. Liquidity is another problem - how would people even buy Bitcoin if their government will ban exchanges, and there's no online banking - buying for cash in person is the only choice, which might be too risky. This is why Bitcoin didn't achieve mass adoption in Venezuela or Zimbabwe, despite it looking like perfect opportunities for it.

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October 05, 2020, 11:16:37 AM
 #12

This topic has been discussed many times:

Can bitcoin help rebuild Venezuela? - Darb Finance
Why are Venezuelan not switching to Bitcoin?
How did Bitcoin save Venezuela?

tl;dr you can use Bitcoin as a hedging instrument, but be aware of the price volatility. At the moment, to use Bitcoin as cash is not viable due to fees and capacity.

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October 05, 2020, 01:23:38 PM
 #13

Doesn't matter what we think. People in these countries are speaking with their wallets. P2P trading volumes reaching all time highs all the time over the past few years in Southeast Asia, and then in spurts like now in countries like your Venezuela, Argentina, Lebanon, Iran, Zimbabwe -- every place that has relied on US dollars to stem their hyperinflation, but access has always been restricted to the upper class.

I've spent lot of time myself on black markets in places like South Sudan to know that if people could easily use Bitcoin they would.

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October 05, 2020, 04:44:07 PM
 #14

Yes, Bitcoin is a store of value and just like any other assets where you can store your wealth, the people who would save their wealth soon Bitcoin already knew how their assets will be liquidated in the future. We the people who those doesn't have that much power and money, we are always looking for ways how to liquidate things quickly. But for them? They have a lot of ways to do that. But not that simple, the process is too complicated and not that fast. So what I mean is, yes.

Bitcoin is very considerable to use as a store of value in hyperinflationary economies, IMO.

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October 05, 2020, 05:50:44 PM
 #15

it is a little like a double edge sword specially if that country doesn't have clear laws about bitcoin and were known to set crazy laws out of nowhere.
the biggest problem is always going to be the volatility. even with hyperinflation seeing something go up and down 30% all of a sudden is going to turn many people away.
but with that said, i have seen people turn to bitcoin in such countries. maybe a smaller example could be India a couple of years ago where people were buying so much bitcoin and there weren't any exchanges there that the bitcoin price was about 40% higher than the global price and that lasted for 4 months.

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October 05, 2020, 08:31:17 PM
 #16

This have been answered in the past that even Reuters have created an article about the US Dollar not being immune to the hyperinflation happening in Venezuela. Which only means that Bitcoin is not immune to the hyperinflation happening to your country as well, but to think about Bitcoin being a store of value rather than your own fiat currency I think it is a good choice as it's not the main thing being affected to the economy of your country. Remember that hyperinflation affects everything as the value of the goods adjusts to the inflation itself basically devaluing your buying power in general.
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