Hey guys.
Some time ago I started to get more involved in placing my sports wagers on a betting exchange. With my background as a trader I am feeling much more comfortable by using a betting exchange.
Firstly because the odds are entirely determined by punters and not by a sports book. Compared to a sports book where you play against the house (bookmaker) on a betting exchange you play p2p. So punters take over the bookmakers position by getting the opportunity to lay bets (bet against outcomes).
Secondly and most important a betting exchange gives me the opportunity to trade on sports markets instead of betting on sports which is a huge difference. By using different trading strategies on a betting exchange I do not rely on wether the bet I placed is going to be correct or not.
I only need several things to happen for every different strategy.
There are many different strategies that I apply and I will use this topic to regularly explain some of the strategies I use. In this way people can learn this strategies as well and maybe can also start building on their sport trading adventure.
'Lay the draw' StrategyMy favourite trading strategy on the betting exchange is 'lay the draw' strategy. In this strategy you place a lay bet on the draw which means you think the match will not end in a draw. However I do not really care about wether the match ends in a draw or not. The only thing I need is a second half goal to secure a profit no matter what the outcome of the match is even if the match does end in a draw.
How do I apply this strategy??
-
Prematch indicators
- There must be a clear favourite pre match with an odd of no higher than 2.2 preferably 1.3 to 1.7 range.
- There must already be matched at least 10,000$ on that match before kickoff.
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Inplay indicators
- I search for games that are on a draw half time
- Those games that are on a draw at half time need to have had 5 to 10 shots on goal with at least 30% shot on target.
As soon as a game matches all this criteria I place a lay the draw bet on that game.
Doesn't matter wether the match ends in a draw or not. How is this possible?It is very simple. If you have a lay the draw position and as soon there is a goal in second half than the odds for the draw shift significantly and you will already be able to secure profits. As soon as a goal is scored in second half you will profit no matter what the outcome of the game will be.
The reason for this is that a betting exchange hedges your secured profits over every possible outcome to guarantee a profit. This means as soon as you take a cash out the betting exchange spreads your secured profits over every possible outcome in that game.... in this case 1X or 2.
The Beauty about this strategy is that you only rely on a second half goal. So even if the underdog scores you will be able to lock a profit. Below I will show a trade I made at this very moment while posting this topic.
Details:
Deposit on orbitx betting exchange on 25th of July 2020
100€Trades placed so far 8
Current bankroll 123€
23% profits on my bankroll.
NOTE!!!!!Football trading is not a fast rich method. It requires dedication to stick to the basic rules. Football trading also can deliver loosing trades.... so you can loose money. So only use money you can afford to loose.
Example of my lay the draw strategy.
Match Japan J1 league
Yokohama FC - UrawaFirst half statistics
lots of goal attempts and plenty shots on target.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F92cfT6U.png&t=665&c=IwmmvEW3QnIwVQ)
So after seeing the stats I decided to take a lay the draw position on this game with a 6€ stake which gave me a liability of almost 12€ that I would loose if there is no goal scored.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F11X7IFX.png&t=665&c=GRKunysNgZ3lmw)
So if there would be no goal scored and it will remain a draw I would loose 11.88€ and in any other case I would be a able to profit 5.82€
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FcWRJwDQ.png&t=665&c=oSnOckalVfU6tA)
Now we are in the position and the only thing that needs to happen is a goal by either 1 of the team. Because I said we are not 'gambling' that the match is going to end on a draw or not. We are trading the 1x2 market and profit from the market behaviour of other punters.
Whoppa after 7 minutes in second half Urawa scored 0-1
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FStcOlym.png&t=665&c=LVnhCliSdChfGA)
But as I said on this betting exchange we do not lock the actual profits but the exchange automatically hedges your stake over all different outcomes. As you can see. I secured a profit no matter how the match ends. Does the match ends in a draw than I secure 1.32€ profits. Does Urawa wins I secure 1.45€ and if in some way Yokohama manages to win I will receive a 18.66€ profit. And this are pure profits cause I have no more liability on this game and my stake already is back in my bankroll. So basically I am free rolling out this game and will make profits no matter how the game ends.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FMPCquc3.png&t=665&c=nFLnVXSj7kdO7w)
So this is basically what I am doing. Instead of gambling I am trading the sports markets. You maybe can think that profits are not that huge but I approach my winnings on the long term.
A gambler aims for big multipliers and odds to make money fast but in most cases result in losses.
A sports trader aims to take smaller profits and builds his bankroll and his wealth in a steady way.
And after all in the example above I lock at least 1.32€ pure profits on a current 123€ bankroll which is a little over 1% profits on the entire bankroll and little over 10% profits on the position I had.
You can compare trading on sports a little with trading on crypto. The only major difference is that crypto markets can be manipulated by whales but the sports market behaves according to what happens in the game. For example an odd on a draw will not drastically move up or down if nothing is happening in the game. Compared to BTC. BTC can take a run or a small crash without anything prior happened.
So if you are interested in trading on sports.... just keep an eye on this topic.
- Ask me anything related to sport trading
- Share your own experience
- I will post different strategies I use myself regularly
- I will post prematch and inalai tips if I find games that suit one of my strategies