Bitcoin price fundamentals in ‘moon mode’ as BTC held on exchanges drops

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

Investors know where to put their money and if its on exchange, I’m sure its a trusted exchange.

Everyone with their assumption, it's funny though as all the assumption I have read could probably been the reason to the reduction of bitcoin observe to be on spot exchanges but the saying that investors stored their coins on trusted exchange is a wrong statement. Anyone doing that is likely some noobs wanna be investors that isn't enlightening yet on the disadvantage of having your funds left on an exchange.

My assumption in regards to the topic, would revolve around the community finally getting the memo on not storing their funds on exchanges. These days you hear less sad stories on how funds were lost as a result of exchange hacking. While this victory is celebrated, we still have to inform the community that these new centralized wallet providers they patronize aren't any different from the exchanges as they're liable to hack too.

[pooya87]

~ there are also reports that the bitcoin addresses now are growing and hit a all time high as well, indication that probably bitcoin enthusiast would rather put their stash on a wallet they have control instead of exchanges that is open for hacks.

And this metric could be good for short term speculation, but then again, there are so many important factors and I think this metric could not be considered as let's say the best parameter to predict short term price.

the problem with metrics like these are that they are affected by a lot of things and the price itself is being affected by lots of different metrics. figuring out how much of that certain metric change was due to adoption and contributes to price rise is nearly impossible.

for example during 2017 we had 2 major things that were contributing to the increased number of addresses in use. the first one was the spam attack which obviously used a ton of different addresses with huge number of new UTXOs. and the second was the shitcoin mining scheme that became popular for a while when they created spam transactions on bitcoin network to mine their shitcoin!
here is an example of fan-out type of spam attack during the last 4 months of 2017:


of course part of this was indeed the increasing adoption alongside the increasing price but from this UTXO/time chart alongside the fact that spam attack (ie. injecting thousands of spam tx in mempool per second) stopped after the peak of that chart is a good indication of the real reasons.

[lifeOK]

I don't see this as a reason for coming bullish trend, people are more skeptical about the security of their crypto assets so they are moving to wallets for holding purpose over the exchange which made the size of exchanges volumes getting reduced while the trading volumes are getting increased day by day.

The exchange doesn't make the hodling of people any different. You can decide to withdraw your bitcoin or trade it to another coin, that doesn't mean that people are closing up from investing in bitcoin. It is just something that can happen at anytime.

Investors know where to put their money and if its on exchange, I’m sure its a trusted exchange. Hodlers are waiting for a new bull moment and yes despite of the dump in the past weeks, we still have the chance to go up the way we predicted bitcoin. Reduced trading volumes might be because of the cheaper bitcoin and they don’t want to sell it on that price.

You're right that Bitcoin has the best brand and most trending topic why it's far superior. Investors and Holders are well aware about it, here we should react immediately according to bitcoin. Bitcoin is controlled by a few whales that's making our job more tough the way we predicted bitcoin previously.

[sana54210]

People are overreacting to everyone, I do not think that price will be suddenly "mooning" all of a sudden, sure it will be doing a bit better than what it did so far, maybe who knows it can reach $13k or even $14k prices, which is not bad and I agree that it is a very good deal for all of us who are keeping our bitcoins, but at the same time we are talking about bitcoin reaching levels it already reached, nothing too shocking, we do all know that reaching $13k-$14k prices are very quite possible, none of that would make us be shocked about it, sure it would be something to be happy about but not really be shocked about.

Hence I believe it is quite important to realize we are in a good situation but not earth shattering situation, it is just a regular good hype that's it.

[stompix]

Yes, there was a slight decrease in the amount of bitcoin held on exchanges during the last bull run, but the price had been steadily climbing before that happened, and continued to steadily climb after the number of bitcoin on exchanges started increasing again. The number of bitcoin on exchanges also decreased during the bear market at the start of 2019, and again during the bear market at the start of this year. It's a big stretch to infer that fewer bitcoin on exchanges is directly related to the price, let alone price increases.

So the sexy girl driving a car that smiled at me yesterday was not actually a girl but a man, he was on the bicycle and he didn't smile he shouted at me cause I run across his path   People are really hunting for everything now to try to make an article or prediction out of something, if the price goes up 4 days drops one day, and then goes up again two days it's the exact pattern as 687 days ago when this and that happened and so it will again.

Forgetting about the actual implication of the coins being moved in and from, I'm doubting everything that comes from glassnode, the morons already made fools out of themselves when they though that Paypal rumors were a trigger to an increase in transactions when in reality it was simply the weekend/workdays routine. With that in mind, I'm taking every info they have on coins sitting in exchanges with a truckload of salt.

[exstasie]

~ there are also reports that the bitcoin addresses now are growing and hit a all time high as well, indication that probably bitcoin enthusiast would rather put their stash on a wallet they have control instead of exchanges that is open for hacks.

And this metric could be good for short term speculation, but then again, there are so many important factors and I think this metric could not be considered as let's say the best parameter to predict short term price.

the problem with metrics like these are that they are affected by a lot of things and the price itself is being affected by lots of different metrics. figuring out how much of that certain metric change was due to adoption and contributes to price rise is nearly impossible.

Totally. This is why I don't generally trade based off fundamentals at all. There are literally millions of reasons why the price can move, too many factors to pinpoint and use in a predictive manner. During bull markets, bad news doesn't matter. During bear markets, good news doesn't matter. Etc.

TA is much more informative to me.

Coindesk offers 3 different possible explanations for this recent growth in Bitcoin address generation. Take your pick.

BitMEX has witnessed an outflow of at least 40,000 BTC (worth around $424 million at press time) since the charges were announced on Oct. 1. Many of these coins have migrated to addresses belonging to major exchanges like Kraken, Binance and Gemini, and a good number of these addresses have been newly generated, according to Alex Melikhov, CEO and founder of Equilibrium and the EOSDT stablecoin. "That has been a viable reason for the spike in new entities," Melikhov told CoinDesk in a Telegram chat.

However, on-chain analyst Cole Garner disagrees, saying the spike in new entities probably represents an entry of new investors into the market and has little to do with the BitMEX issue. That's because the metric has continued to rise over the past five days even though BitMEX withdrawals cooled following an initial spike from Oct. 1–2.

A third theory making the rounds is that Chinese media's recent and unusual reports calling cryptocurrency the year's best-performing asset maybe have caused local investors to put some cash into the bitcoin market.

https://www.coindesk.com/analysts-spike-new-bitcoin-addresses-bitmex-investors

[Baofeng]

Thanks @exstasie, but I don't know, I still can't made up my mind as to what really cause the drops of BTC held on exchanges. I known that Chinese media, actually I was able to posts it here, but maybe there could be some "lost in translation", so I didn't push it. And then was surprised to see it as one factor to be considered, Lol. Market is really unpredictable, one good lessons that we really learn and most of the time really hard to understood. And yes, TA could be the only metrics to rely in this very dynamic markets we are in.