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Question: How low will BTC/$ drop over the Thanksgiving weekend?  (Voting closed: November 28, 2011, 12:56:16 PM)
$2 - 13 (35.1%)
$1.75 - 10 (27%)
$1.50 - 2 (5.4%)
$1.25 - 3 (8.1%)
$1.00 - 1 (2.7%)
<$1.00 - 8 (21.6%)
Total Voters: 37

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Author Topic: How low will BTC/$ drop over the Thanksgiving weekend?  (Read 2959 times)
notme
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November 25, 2011, 03:50:05 PM
 #21

Up this weekend.

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kjlimo
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November 25, 2011, 04:30:53 PM
 #22

I doubt there will be a serious drop. It won't go below 2. If it does so, I will buy tons of them.

you & me both!

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Dan The Man
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November 25, 2011, 07:01:42 PM
 #23

Short squeeze

Gonna have to go quite a bit higher than 25 cents for a short squeeze. 

What price do you need to hit to get a short squeeze? I will shed a tear for you if it gets there.

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November 25, 2011, 07:43:33 PM
 #24

Short squeeze

Gonna have to go quite a bit higher than 25 cents for a short squeeze. 

What price do you need to hit to get a short squeeze? I will shed a tear for you if it gets there.

care to elaborate on what a short squeeze is?

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notme
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November 25, 2011, 07:55:58 PM
 #25

Short squeeze

Gonna have to go quite a bit higher than 25 cents for a short squeeze. 

What price do you need to hit to get a short squeeze? I will shed a tear for you if it gets there.

care to elaborate on what a short squeeze is?

When the price moves up, if you have a leveraged short you will get a margin call.  If you don't have enough funds to meet the margin, your position is liquidated for a maximum loss.  If that only confuses you further, google is your friend.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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Dan The Man
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November 25, 2011, 07:59:59 PM
 #26

Short squeeze

Gonna have to go quite a bit higher than 25 cents for a short squeeze.  

What price do you need to hit to get a short squeeze? I will shed a tear for you if it gets there.

care to elaborate on what a short squeeze is?

When you take a short position, you borrow bitcoins and sell them first then buy them back at a later date and payback your loan. So if the price goes down you make money. You have to put up some kind of capital as collateral for this loan. So if you borrow an equal amount as your capital and the price doubles, you will be forced to buy them back at double the price and lose all of your original investment. This is essentially a short squeeze. You are forced to buy the coins back at that price because if the price went any higher, your capital would no longer cover the increase in price of the bitcoins you sold.

Now the trick is that you can actually borrow on margin where you sell more than your capital could afford to buy. So assuming you used up a 5:1 margin, which is what Bitcoinica gives, you could only tolerate a 20% rise in price before your loan gets liquidated and you lose all your money.

That is in the theoretical world. It's not exactly like that because there is some margin for the loaner to profit no matter what and some margin in case the price moves too quickly.

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November 25, 2011, 10:10:43 PM
 #27

Thanks for the great explanations!  The trend just seems to be continuing slowly up!  I wonder when our next drop off's gonna be.

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BadBear
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November 26, 2011, 11:21:36 AM
 #28

Short squeeze

Gonna have to go quite a bit higher than 25 cents for a short squeeze. 

What price do you need to hit to get a short squeeze? I will shed a tear for you if it gets there.

I'm not short, haven't been since a week or two ago.  I'm out for the moment, market volatility is too high at 2, and margins aren't good enough for me without a substantial investment from outside my bitcoin funds.  I'm just watching for now.  My grandfather always taught me to quit while I'm ahead.   

And to elaborate on the short squeeze for the person who asked, it's not just liquidating short positions, it's a situation where a large number of shorts are liquidated and cause the price to rise, because the people who were short have to buy back the coins when they get a margin call. 

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November 26, 2011, 12:41:49 PM
 #29

It's beginning.
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November 26, 2011, 12:59:10 PM
 #30

I doubt it will be what the polls indicated, it will not fall below $2, it is quite stable at +/-$2.50
BadBear
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November 26, 2011, 02:49:58 PM
 #31

I doubt it will be what the polls indicated, it will not fall below $2, it is quite stable at +/-$2.50

What is your definition of stable?

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Jonathan Ryan Owens
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November 26, 2011, 03:11:36 PM
 #32

I doubt it will be what the polls indicated, it will not fall below $2, it is quite stable at +/-$2.50

What is your definition of stable?

I think it's going to drop below $0 all the way down to $1000. It's science.

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November 26, 2011, 03:14:50 PM
 #33

It's beginning.

Looks like it. I could be persuaded to take profits now if there were sufficient market depth (I can't) but no way I gonna go long.  On the other hand if I weren't in position already I would place a tight short limit order right here. From what it seems that is what others have done.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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November 26, 2011, 03:26:42 PM
 #34

Erm.. Up! Up! Up!.. Erm.. Down! Down! Down! Um..


proudhon
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November 26, 2011, 04:35:53 PM
 #35

This most recent up-tick is on much lower volume.  I think there's going to be a big smack down soon.
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November 26, 2011, 05:30:18 PM
 #36

This most recent up-tick is on much lower volume.  I think there's going to be a big smack down soon.



Will the manipulator fondle us or go limp and pull out?

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November 26, 2011, 05:34:43 PM
 #37

Let the results speak for themselves, see you on Monday Smiley
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