Bitcoin market cap can exceed Gold's after the next decade

[NeuroticFish]

Comparing gold and Bitcoin in my opinion makes very little or no sense at all

Actually it makes sense because both share one property: scarcity.
And since scarcity makes something more and more valuable over time, people will clearly be obsessed by gold and Bitcoin.

Gold price has smaller daily variations and steadier growth, Bitcoin is newer, has huge price fluctuations and also seems to offer overall better gains over years (of course, the ones caught by 2017 FOMO rush will not agree) for the ones with strong hands (and hearth!).

[int03h]

I'm not sure Bitcoin's limit will exceed that of gold. As more and more gold is mined and we don't know how much gold there is in the world, bitcoin has its limits. Bitcoin is highly manipulated, and only when countries consider storing Bitcoin in asset portfolios do I consider Bitcoin's capitalization passable with gold.

[Lucius]

Actually it makes sense because both share one property: scarcity.
And since scarcity makes something more and more valuable over time, people will clearly be obsessed by gold and Bitcoin.

This is something that makes sense, but we still know that the total amount of Bitcoin cannot be more than 21 million, while gold is something that cannot be determined in that sense, and its quantities are actually unlimited, especially if we take into account that in the future its exploitation will go beyond the of the planet Earth. This will not happen tomorrow or in 10 years, but in 50 years the news could reach the Earth that a huge amount of gold has been discovered near Olympus Mons on Mars.

I am sure that people will continue to search for gold in the distant future, but I also know that in the next 10 years 99% of all Bitcoin will be mined and that this is something in which gold and Bitcoin differ the most - limited mining time.

[ChiBitCTy]

Making a prediction that is 10 years in the future is certainly doing a good bit of guessing and using conjecture so I'm not sure how much stock I would actually put in to this.  Also keep in mind Gold has been around and used as a currency for centuries.  Gold is also used in every day life for more than just a transfer of funds, or jewelry but also in things such as machine equipment or TV cables.. bitcoin does not have these properties which hurts this argument a bit imo.

[rodskee]

I'm not sure Bitcoin's limit will exceed that of gold. As more and more gold is mined and we don't know how much gold there is in the world, bitcoin has its limits.

Yeah right, there are more gold that being mined from time to time and the actual numbers still undertrained
there are many places that potentially have this minerals.
Unlike BTC where numbers are limited from how it's been designed, so we can't accurately say that it will exceed
gold in the future.

Bitcoin is highly manipulated, and only when countries consider storing Bitcoin in asset portfolios do I consider Bitcoin's capitalization passable with gold.

If that's a possibilities then there's  really chance that it might passed gold depends from how people will embrace
the system in the next decades.

[slaman29]

I am fascinated by how much people are obsessed with gold, as if there is still a gold rush that drives people crazy. Comparing gold and Bitcoin in my opinion makes very little or no sense at all, because these are two completely different things, each with its own purpose and application.

And silver too, a lot of people I know in communities online actually actively buy gold and silver (along with Bitcoin). I sort of get it in a way, I guess they are just diversifying but I actually don't really feel safe if I bought gold or anyone knew that I did. Gold being at ATH every 10 to 15 years also makes people just love it. Pure store of value but people don't realize how hard it is to liquidate if they wanted.

[minairia3]

Do you think it is a right and robust statement to say? How do we will approach Bitcoin blockchain after 10 years?

The statement is his own belief and perception towards bitcoin achievement. Actually it is possible to happen taking the bitcoin structure and gold in comparison. I think community prefer massive adoption will come on bitcoin technology. There are still users who are not acquainted well on blockchain and few years from now the number will decrease and will continue to increase new people on using these innovative creation. That includes cash flow that will enter the market that will serve as way to exceeding gold market.

[d5000]

Although most perceive it only as a store of value and for making jewelry, its application is much greater than that -> https://geology.com/minerals/gold/uses-of-gold.shtml

Gold has lots of use cases, right. But the current gold price is driven mostly by speculation.

I read some time ago (unfortunately, I've not preserved the link, but you can find similar opinions like this Bloomberg article) that gold would be worth only a fraction of its current price if it wasn't for Central Banks hoarding it. If Central Banks begun to sell a significant part of their gold, the price would plummet, because the demand for industrial use would not be enough to sustain anything near the current price.

I think gold is mostly valued by its tradition as "something valuable", which goes back to Antiquity, and its psychological value because of its association to jewelry. Scarcity alone cannot explain its price.

As a practical means of "value", mainly if you also want to move it, it is not very convenient. Here Bitcoin works much better. Bitcoin has many advantages compared to gold when it comes to usability for payments or even for moving parts of your wealth.

For these reasons, I think Bitcoin can surpass gold's "market cap". However, I think gold's market cap has some likelihood to shrink considerably, so a $100,000 Bitcoin could be enough to surpass gold's market cap in the future.

[DarkDays]

Lol, I really don't think that Bitcoin is going to exceed the market cap of gold any time soon. Bear in mind that gold has already more than doubled in value in the last decade, so it would probably do so again to achieve a market cap of $16 trillion by 2030.

At its current market cap of over $200 billion, BTC would need to multiply in value by 80x to reach a $16 trillion market cap. At that market cap it would be 10x higher than the M0 supply of the US dollar....

Do you really think Bitcoin is going to be 10x bigger than the US dollar in ten years? Come on now. Let's have reasonable expectations.

5-10x growth is reasonable given its current size, 80x probably isn't.

[Om.monata]

At this point the market cap of Bitcoin is around $384 billion and Gold's 9 trillion. Assuming that Gold's will double, try to imagine Bitcoin value.
Posted by Morgan Creek co-founder on Twitter personal page as a proof for the future of his actual beliefs regarding Bitcoin potential:

"Bitcoin’s market cap will surpass gold’s market cap by Dec 31, 2029.

Posting this as a receipt for the future."

Do you think it is a right and robust statement to say? How do we will approach Bitcoin blockchain after 10 years?

I underline this word "Bitcoin's market cap will surpass gold's market cap by Dec 31, 2029" so it looks like bitcoin will have an increase in supply or will just increase the price without increasing supply ??
because if bitcoin adds to the supply, I think the bitcoin price will be low. everyone will easily get bitcoin and bitcoin is not a superior coin anymore

[AmoreJaz]

Although most perceive it only as a store of value and for making jewelry, its application is much greater than that -> https://geology.com/minerals/gold/uses-of-gold.shtml

Gold has lots of use cases, right. But the current gold price is driven mostly by speculation.

I read some time ago (unfortunately, I've not preserved the link, but you can find similar opinions like this Bloomberg article) that gold would be worth only a fraction of its current price if it wasn't for Central Banks hoarding it. If Central Banks begun to sell a significant part of their gold, the price would plummet, because the demand for industrial use would not be enough to sustain anything near the current price.

I think gold is mostly valued by its tradition as "something valuable", which goes back to Antiquity, and its psychological value because of its association to jewelry. Scarcity alone cannot explain its price.

As a practical means of "value", mainly if you also want to move it, it is not very convenient. Here Bitcoin works much better. Bitcoin has many advantages compared to gold when it comes to usability for payments or even for moving parts of your wealth.

For these reasons, I think Bitcoin can surpass gold's "market cap". However, I think gold's market cap has some likelihood to shrink considerably, so a $100,000 Bitcoin could be enough to surpass gold's market cap in the future.

dont forget the importance of gold in electronics and computers. so we dont have bitcoin if theres no computer, right? so don't underestimate the value of gold as bitcoin can't replace its actual use in various industries. bitcoin may surpass the market cap of gold but it cant replace the different uses of gold in many industries. unless, someone will discover or create a new material in replacement of gold.

[d5000]

dont forget the importance of gold in electronics and computers. so we dont have bitcoin if theres no computer, right? so don't underestimate the value of gold as bitcoin can't replace its actual use in various industries. bitcoin may surpass the market cap of gold but it cant replace the different uses of gold in many industries.

Well, I actually wrote about that. Industrial demand is simply not enough to sustain the current price.

According to estimations by Statista, about 7% of the world's gold is needed for industrial usage. This includes gold in dental prothesis, but excludes jewelry. Jewelry is by far the biggest gold consumer and uses 48% of the world's reserves. 30% are used for "investment purposes". 15% is owned by Central Banks.

While you could argue jewelry is also an "industrial usage", most people use gold jewelry as a collectible which should preserve its value. In the case of a gold crash, some of the owners of this gold could panic too and send the price down even further.

It's also worth noting that Central Banks, in 1999, had to agree to limit gold sales to sustain its price. Without that agreement, gold price would be very likely much lower today.

So I see gold as a pretty unsafe asset, more with the current bubblish gold prices. Bitcoin has, in my opinion, a far better outlook.

[bonjouros]

There are many things that can or will happen before and after 10 years. But in my views, I am very positive that bitcoin can surpass the market cap of Gold with that amount of time.

Specially if gold will remain stagnant or it's progress will be very slow. Bitcoin is capable in multiplying it's value as years passes by and the investors of bitcoin are also increasing every now and then. This will be the best card for bitcoin to overtake gold ten years from now.

[Shasha80]

Everyone is free to predict about the future of Bitcoin, which Morgan Creek says could happen in the future of Bitcoin
market capitalization will be above Gold market capitalization. But it can be achieved if several conditions are met, such
as most countries in the world the government provides support for Bitcoin. If this has not happened then the Bitcoin
market cap prediction can pass Gold market cap will be difficult to materialize.

[coolcoinz]

I don't find gold to be attractive at all. It sure is pretty and I have a wedding ring made of it, but that's all. I'm not going to collect gold bars or anything like that. Gold is the metal our grandparents were obsessed with as the only safe haven for money, but it was understandable since they lived in the era of the great wars.
Bitcoin has a chance to overtake gold but for that the current gold bugs have to disappear, which will not take long as most of them are in their 60s.

[sayulita]

At this point the market cap of Bitcoin is around $384 billion and Gold's 9 trillion. Assuming that Gold's will double, try to imagine Bitcoin value.
Posted by Morgan Creek co-founder on Twitter personal page as a proof for the future of his actual beliefs regarding Bitcoin potential:

"Bitcoin’s market cap will surpass gold’s market cap by Dec 31, 2029.

Posting this as a receipt for the future."

Do you think it is a right and robust statement to say? How do we will approach Bitcoin blockchain after 10 years?

Lets have a reality check, assuming the stats given by you about the doubling of the market cap of gold in next decade then it will be 18 Trillion dollars and assuming all 21 million bitcoins are mined in the next decade, then also the price of bitcoin should be at least  $857,142.857143, which is harder to achieve than it seems written down, this is almost 71x of the current price(assuming it to be $12k). I guess, bitcoin can't equal the market cap of gold in the next decade and it will take lot more time than that to beat gold in market cap, but we should always have our hopes high regarding the investment in which we have invested and never be tempted to sell our coins after witnessing a mere 2x on the initial investment.

[Lucius]

And silver too, a lot of people I know in communities online actually actively buy gold and silver (along with Bitcoin). I sort of get it in a way, I guess they are just diversifying but I actually don't really feel safe if I bought gold or anyone knew that I did. Gold being at ATH every 10 to 15 years also makes people just love it. Pure store of value but people don't realize how hard it is to liquidate if they wanted.

Of course, all precious metals are very interesting to investors, silver is something that people buy the most before gold. What has always deterred me from buying precious metals is the possibility of buying fake gold, and the fact is that there is a lot of it on the market - and when someone manages to put 83 tons of fake gold on the market, everyone should ask themselves what they are buying or have already bought.

Gold has lots of use cases, right. But the current gold price is driven mostly by speculation.
~snip~
For these reasons, I think Bitcoin can surpass gold's "market cap". However, I think gold's market cap has some likelihood to shrink considerably, so a $100,000 Bitcoin could be enough to surpass gold's market cap in the future.

Yes, that's right - gold is valuable because it is bought by central banks as a kind of insurance - but I don't think that value system will be so easy to break, because if we take the gold that EU state members have as an example - then the example that appeared in Italy some time ago it was obvious that the European Central Bank had the main say in selling gold - so even if you have gold you can't do with it what you want.

Perhaps the real question is whether central banks will at some point take Bitcoin as a form of digital gold, and if that were to happen then gold would likely lose part of its total value.

[OcTradism]

It is a wrong comparison because good supply can be increased when technology evolves more and companies expand their production activities to more remote areas on the planet. We don't know how many gold will be produced in total. In contrast, we all know the total supply of Bitcoin, and what almost lost from inactive UTXO after many years.

More supply for gold, more total market cap for gold, at same price. In contrast, Bitcoin market cap will only increase if its price increase.

[Yatsan]

There could be a possibility that Bitcoin can surpass Gold's market cap if you will be basing on pure calculations but that is not how things will work for we cannot foresee what can happen in the future and we cannot duly predict the possibility of the growth of Bitcoin to be smooth for we all know that Bitcoin have been into many struggling situation and always make a comeback but still there is no pure assurance that thing will always go work. Considering the other external factors that may affect the market caps of both Bitcoin and Gold, time will only tell what can literally happen if there could be a big possibility that Bitcoin can surpass Gold or it will remain the other way around. As of now, we cannot duly see what can happen. Let us just all see when the time comes at year 2029 based on the OP that is according to Morgan Creek which is a wild prediction based on calculations for now.

[Sanitough]

We are crypto enthusiast, we don't limit the success of bitcoin, so for me, I believe it's possible.

If it will not happen 10 years from now, then we can wait for the next 10 years as long as bitcoin still has a continuing demand and massive adoption is happening. This kind of prediction is quite aggressive, but I would not say it's impossible as it's hard to predict crypto, but one thing we have to do is just to ensure we are all optimistic all the time.