USA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2020: Michael Moore says Trump on course to win !

[Spendulus]

The voter turnout is going to be at record low levels for this election. Apart from the COVID 19 pandemic, there are opinion polls which claim that a large part of the American population is not supporting either of the two candidates. Some may go out and vote for third party candidates as a protest, but the vast majority will simply abstain from voting.

Even with the pandemic, they're expecting record setting voter turn out.  Over 1 million people have already voted, at this point in 2016 that number was less than 10k.

What a show of sock-puppets this time!

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[BADecker]

Trump will win because he has stepped out with Covid, sort of. While Trump is out, Dr. Scott Atlas is bringing the truth about Covid from the Whitehouse in ways that the CDC can't refute. Covid is barely, if any more dangerous, than the flu. Trump will win because his administration is freeing us all from Covid... but especially from our fear.

[philipma1957]

Trump will win because he has stepped out with Covid, sort of. While Trump is out, Dr. Scott Atlas is bringing the truth about Covid from the Whitehouse in ways that the CDC can't refute. Covid is barely, if any more dangerous, than the flu. Trump will win because his administration is freeing us all from Covid... but especially from our fear.

the only flu to kill more then 200,000 usa 🇺🇸 citizens was the spanish flu.

but we have had flu seasons kill as many as 120,000.

so to say 207,000 is barely more then 120,000 is meh almost wrong almost right.

wait til feb 1 and see if it goes to 300,000.  I would argue 300,000 vs 120,000 is certainly not barely.

My estimates are that the worst this flu could do to usa 🇺🇸 are around 600,000 to 1,200,000

Still does not make it way worse then the flu but surely worse then any flu other then the spanish flu.

We also have a new issue Trump is sick with covid-19.

In the hospital.

[JollyGood]

I did not know that 2016 brought in just 10,000 mail voters yet over 1 million have voted so far and counting. For the sake of clarity to avoid allegations of corruption from either side it would all be about the ratio of mail votes that would be counted in Republican held states vs Democratic held states. One side will definitely dispute the other therefore I see this going to court for judges to award the Presidency unless there is a landslide victory for one of them.


EDIT: I just watched a political commentator who mentioned that over 3 million votes have been cast and a further million are being sent out 

The voter turnout is going to be at record low levels for this election. Apart from the COVID 19 pandemic, there are opinion polls which claim that a large part of the American population is not supporting either of the two candidates. Some may go out and vote for third party candidates as a protest, but the vast majority will simply abstain from voting.

Even with the pandemic, they're expecting record setting voter turn out.  Over 1 million people have already voted, at this point in 2016 that number was less than 10k.

[BADecker]

I did not know that 2016 brought in just 10,000 mail voters yet over 1 million have voted so far and counting. For the sake of clarity to avoid allegations of corruption from either side it would all be about the ratio of mail votes that would be counted in Republican held states vs Democratic held states. One side will definitely dispute the other therefore I see this going to court for judges to award the Presidency unless there is a landslide victory for one of them.


EDIT: I just watched a political commentator who mentioned that over 3 million votes have been cast and a further million are being sent out 

The voter turnout is going to be at record low levels for this election. Apart from the COVID 19 pandemic, there are opinion polls which claim that a large part of the American population is not supporting either of the two candidates. Some may go out and vote for third party candidates as a protest, but the vast majority will simply abstain from voting.

Even with the pandemic, they're expecting record setting voter turn out.  Over 1 million people have already voted, at this point in 2016 that number was less than 10k.

However, all that mailed-in voting is popular votes. Rather, it is the Electoral votes that count in the election.

If anybody accuses an Electoral delegate from voting incorrectly - voting not according to the popular vote of his state - the accuser will have to prove it according to mail-in votes. The proving attempt might wake people up to the fraud in the mail-in voting.

In other words, all this mail-in voting talk is stupid. Focus on the Electoral College.

[Gyfts]

CNN did a poll post Trump COVID and it's about what we expect.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump-2020-election/index.html

Biden's leading by 14. Since we're about a month away, that's still enough time for the shock factor of Trump getting COVID to wear down which might bring national polling a bit closer but obviously Trump still has a lot of ground to make up.

[riskyron]

Trump cancelled all the talks on working with Nancy Pelosi to agree upon Covid stimulus checks sum yesterday.

By doing this he most likely has lost a great deal of his supporters because a lot of people really counted on that money.

[aesma]

Last time I bet on a presidential election (in my country) was 2007, I bet against the nasty candidate and lost, so I won't bet against Trump. But as things stand (and as things can go in the remaining time) I don't see how Trump can win, even if he cheats.

[JollyGood]

What was the most Hillary was ahead in the polls against Trump? Was it a larger lead than 14 at any given point?

CNN did a poll post Trump COVID and it's about what we expect.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump-2020-election/index.html

Biden's leading by 14. Since we're about a month away, that's still enough time for the shock factor of Trump getting COVID to wear down which might bring national polling a bit closer but obviously Trump still has a lot of ground to make up.

[Gyfts]

What was the most Hillary was ahead in the polls against Trump? Was it a larger lead than 14 at any given point?

CNN did a poll post Trump COVID and it's about what we expect.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump-2020-election/index.html

Biden's leading by 14. Since we're about a month away, that's still enough time for the shock factor of Trump getting COVID to wear down which might bring national polling a bit closer but obviously Trump still has a lot of ground to make up.

Clinton was up like 4 points at this point in the election last year. And Trump won by like ~50k votes in that election by winning 3 or 4 battleground states. Not at any point was Trump this far off from her. IIRC Trump was consistently down 4-8 points and was down an average of 4 or so points leading up to election day.

[Cnut237]

I'm just going to throw these in for some wider perspective on how the election is viewed from outside the US. It's a summary of surveys from individual countries, but tells a consistent story. 1000+ participants in each, so fairly small... but consistent.
It's interesting how the view of both Trump and the election itself are hugely negative across Europe. It indicates I think that Trump is viewed as a leader who is bad for Europe, rather than that he's bad for the US. Probably due in large part to his revival of US isolationism, but perhaps also indicative of some pro-Trump media bias within the US. The lack of faith in the fairness of the election process in the foremost western democratic nation is quite shocking.





_{https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/08/minority-of-europeans-think-us-election-will-be-free-and-fair-poll}

[Spendulus]

I'm just going to throw these in for some wider perspective on how the election is viewed from outside the US....

Many of the problems the US has had in the past, and to some fair extent the current issues including the violence, are due to direct influences of your European Fabian-socialists or indirect influences of them. 

If you'd get your international meddlers out of the US, and in particular out of the US Democratic party, you'd see much less crazy here.

As for Euro-opinions of Trump you know a choice place or two where those can go.

[Cnut237]

Many of the problems the US has had in the past, and to some fair extent the current issues including the violence, are due to direct influences of your European Fabian-socialists or indirect influences of them. 

Certainly in the past Europe has had a huge impact on the US. At present, though? I'm not convinced. I think you are downplaying the importance and strength of the US here. Everyone in the world always has eyes on the US as the leading Western nation, and more so since the rise of China as a second superpower. The US stands by itself, and Europe, particularly the UK, follows along behind on the path the US sets.

But it is important - for anything - to view it from the outside as well. I'm not trying to use those surveys to belittle Trump, I'm simply highlighting the disparity between how Trump is viewed in Europe, and how he's viewed inside the US, and suggesting reasons for the huge difference. I do think the primary reason is his isolationism and withdrawing the US from its role as a global leader. Europe since WW2 has become accustomed to having the US as its defender; the future is now less certain. Xenophobia is on the rise everywhere, as is racism. The US may be retreating from the world stage, but it has lost none of its internal power, and its power to lead and influence other nations. What the US does doesn't just affect the US, it affects everyone.

[aesma]

Obama was liked in Europe, W Bush wasn't. US Republicans in general are not liked in Europe, however Trump is at another level, it's hatred not just dislike.

The idea that Europe influences US politics is preposterous. Yes some Democratic politicians are today advocating for European style things like universal healthcare and free/cheap higher education, simply because these things work very well in Europe, nobody is complaining about them. In fact even in the US plenty of people complaining about Obamacare and wanting it destroyed are on Obamacare...

When I say Obama was liked in Europe, I mean as a US president. He did nothing for Europe, he didn't really care. But he wasn't antagonistic like Trump is, going against everybody.

[casperBGD]

When I say Obama was liked in Europe, I mean as a US president. He did nothing for Europe, he didn't really care. But he wasn't antagonistic like Trump is, going against everybody.

it is just different type of a person, that was liked all around the world, because he is nice to see and hear, Trump has different nature, like to sworn, attack other people, and most of people do not like this, so it is not that liked

that being said, i do not think that Trump will lose the elections, he is targeting people in countries that will decide the elections, do not care about countries that are always for democrats/republicans, and do not care about anything else than to win the elections at the moment, which could not be said as bad for a politician, while Biden is trying to stay relevant on all subjects and will maybe won more votes, but lose the elections

[BADecker]

Trump 2024, if it takes a Limited Con-Con to make it happen.

[bryant.coleman]

Obama was liked in Europe, W Bush wasn't. US Republicans in general are not liked in Europe, however Trump is at another level, it's hatred not just dislike.

The idea that Europe influences US politics is preposterous. Yes some Democratic politicians are today advocating for European style things like universal healthcare and free/cheap higher education, simply because these things work very well in Europe, nobody is complaining about them. In fact even in the US plenty of people complaining about Obamacare and wanting it destroyed are on Obamacare...

When I say Obama was liked in Europe, I mean as a US president. He did nothing for Europe, he didn't really care. But he wasn't antagonistic like Trump is, going against everybody.

Obama was good for non-Americans, but he was a disaster for the American economy. His socialist policies wrecked the stock market and he increased the long-term capital gains tax from 15% to 23.8% (one of the highest rates across the globe). The federal debt ballooned by a massive $9 trillion during his 8 year term (remember that GW Bush with his Iraq war could add only $4 trillion during his 8-years). And also, his foreign policy was amateurish, with ISIS and other terrorist organizations being able to spread their power.

[TwitchySeal]

Obama was good for non-Americans, but he was a disaster for the American economy. His socialist policies wrecked the stock market

Whoever told you that is a lying liar.
Dow Jones growth for last 4 presidents by months in office:


https://www.macrotrends.net/2481/stock-market-performance-by-president

Pretty crazy considering everything the president has said about the market huh?

[Dsdaq]

Many people believe that Trump is will not win the election, but if you look a the scene he has the balls on his hands to play, he is a very smart man and a hardcore businessman that will do almost everything to success. I see him with 80% chances of winning again. History repeats itself.

[DrG]

Obama was good for non-Americans, but he was a disaster for the American economy. His socialist policies wrecked the stock market

Whoever told you that is a lying liar.
Dow Jones growth for last 4 presidents by months in office:


https://www.macrotrends.net/2481/stock-market-performance-by-president

Pretty crazy considering everything the president has said about the market huh?

All that graph says is that Money Printer went Brrr during certain periods. If you have the Fed go reckless and print tons of paper money with nothing to back it of course people are going to shovel it into stocks. PE ratios going up 2 to 3x what they were in the past doesn't mean economic growth, it means exuberance with no basis in reality.

The measure of success from an economic engine is GDP and quality of life. Quality of Life is very hard to measure. GDP is much more calculable.