History repeats itself?

[pilosopotasyo]

I'm also worried about what will happen once that trendline below will be broken and what we experienced before will not happen this time.
That's why my instinct is really scary for me since we always expecting only a positive way, we should also be prepared for the negative one.

We are all hoping that this year is not an exception and the halving is not an exception from what we've experienced in the past, we are in a stage where we are in a dilemma if history will repeat itself or we will have a different scenario, we are experiencing so many first right now, but I like that the community is more thinking now than supporting hype projects.

[ShowOff]

It doesn't matter to think that we will have days where the price of bitcoin will hit an all-time high again in the future because that would be good to increase our confidence in the price of bitcoin. But I don't think past history which may have the same pattern as today is the best consideration for making decision. Investing should not be like this because circumstances can still change as the market is determined by trader and investor. I think some people have a unique belief (instinct) in determining thing. I see this at times very similar to a gambler's belief in determining something before betting. Past history may repeat itself, but crypto investing must be adapted to the current market condition. We can't predict the future, but we can do our best to achieve something good in the future.

[exstasie]

When everyone is thinking the same thing (in this case, moon) the opposite often happens. I'd be more comfortable if we had more "Bitcoin is dead" sentiment, like we had in mid-2015. We all know what happened after that.

To me, the March crash had the feel of a capitulation like January 2015, but we never had that long boring despair period that came afterwards. With so many bulls thinking a parabolic bubble is coming soon, I wonder if the market is setting up to disappoint them with a shakeout and months of boring sideways.

Here is the chart for the January 2015 crash and March 2020, and also the December 2018 (I added the two in one chart).
Do you think instead of the March 2020 crash, they are have more similiary of December 2018 crash, where they are almost the same days when was the dump and the percentage of lost, which is around -85%.
They really got a huge similarity here, even after the 2015 January crash, after few months, the price of Bitcoin still didn't reach a new all-time-high, it's still neutral .

Look at what happened after January 2015. We had 9 months of sideways ranging at the bottom, an attempt to selloff to new lows in August 2015, then finally a reversal of the multi-year bear market.

That 9 month range is what I mean by the "long boring despair period." We didn't really get that after the crash in November 2018, just a couple months consolidation that was very quickly reversed. It never felt like despair, where the price stays so low so long that all the bulls give up. I never felt like the weak hands truly got shaken out.

That sentiment is one of the reasons why I like this multi-year triangle idea so much: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg55282472#msg55282472

Each extreme has been very quickly reversed, highly volatile. That's indicative of a triangle, which also implies more sideways ranging in the months to come. In other words, I don't think the long boring phase of the post-2017 bear market is quite over yet.

[Mahanton]

It doesn't matter to think that we will have days where the price of bitcoin will hit an all-time high again in the future because that would be good to increase our confidence in the price of bitcoin. But I don't think past history which may have the same pattern as today is the best consideration for making decision. Investing should not be like this because circumstances can still change as the market is determined by trader and investor. I think some people have a unique belief (instinct) in determining thing. I see this at times very similar to a gambler's belief in determining something before betting. Past history may repeat itself, but crypto investing must be adapted to the current market condition. We can't predict the future, but we can do our best to achieve something good in the future.

All of us didnt even expect that we would hit up $20k all time high and just expecting for lower levels but we did really able to reach it out.It do really give out that kind of boost of feelings
and confidence but actually opposite to those people who had been caught with Fomo where they do brought out coins into its peak state.If there were profitable people then for sure
there are lots who do lost money and this had been a norm with this market yet it do only compose with buyers and seller.On talking or mentioning about history is repeating then it can
really be either both ways neither it would happen or would not but basing of on the current movement then we arent really that far away but this would really be a bumpy ride
and will surely takes time.

[FanEagle]

I do think that in the financial world history repeats itself is not a good thing to say. Because in general, things do repeat the results, but the way it happens is almost always different. Just to give an example that everyone can understand, in 2008 there was a global crisis right? In 2020 there is one too? Now history does repeat itself and there is a crisis, but I have to say it is not the same reason and it is not the same path that lead us here, one was mortgages being high leveraged and the other is a pandemic.

Same reasoning stands with every little single small thing, even the same exact chart that resulted with one thing, may not result with same again, but the results could be same from two very different charts.

[GreatArkansas]

(....)
Same reasoning stands with every little single small thing, even the same exact chart that resulted with one thing, may not result with same again, but the results could be same from two very different charts.

Exactly! You got it. It's just like also on the Bitcoin's previous all-time-highs. Although we did experienced them, but there is no specific time or exact time when did it happen. If we compare them, no exact days count on reaching a new all-time-high.
But for me, what happened in the future may use to become a basis in the future, use it as input in analysing some future data or do some speculation based from the past.

[Botnake]

Chart is not a good basis as the market is always unpredictable, but looking at the adoption and the hype of the market which is still here, it's not unlikely to see an ATH anytime but also it could go the other way, either way, anyone could present a chart and say, "hey! there's a chart that it looks like a pattern in the past", so to make it short, my thoughts is just predict based on the news and the hype but always stay bullish as bitcoin is built for success. 

[Distinctin]

I remain optimistic no matter what happens to the market or even it runs back to where it started. 
We're seeing that some patterns are of the same in the past year it is because we are too volatile to hold everything in control. I only consider that the market repeats itself if it goes back to $1 and then starts to move back high again. Because we whole trend shows that we are following the zigzag line and definitely, we can see some similarities in it if we compared to the previous trend.

[STT]

The finance story is a continuation rather then a repeat but I like the Mark Twain phrase, time dont repeat but we may find it rhymes.    The melt down and elements that caused it are still in effect as they were then, we phase shifted onto the currency itself or US treasury bonds rather then bank bonds and other derivatives.   Its actually more serious because a private company going broke might signal recession but debt default is normal in an economic cycle but a government suffering a crisis where their debt cost exceeds income means a loss of confidence nationally.  Its happened lots of time even in modern economies so it's quite likely, main difference is it could happen to the world's main currency but we might transition on peacefully possibly.
   Theres no way Japan government debt can be repaid that I've ever heard of and similarly in lots of seemingly rich countries, so theres hard default and soft.  The most obvious route or path of least resistance is nominal currency loses maybe 90% of its worth hence the debt is easy to repay, again not unprecedented.
   That all is part of the story behind the OP graph, its an exponential effect because 100k and other prices with any fixed value system is beyond belief normally.    If you get told off or laughed at for the idea, the pipe dream, is because normally that'd be correct but in a transformative situation its not normal anymore.
 The chart and situation is very long term, multiple decades possibly so its not something to trade off especially imo

[Ridwan Fauzi]

Chart is not a good basis as the market is always unpredictable, but looking at the adoption and the hype of the market which is still here, it's not unlikely to see an ATH anytime but also it could go the other way, either way, anyone could present a chart and say, "hey! there's a chart that it looks like a pattern in the past", so to make it short, my thoughts is just predict based on the news and the hype but always stay bullish as bitcoin is built for success. 

You don't believe because you are not a trader or someone who don't know how technical analyst work, maybe. For those someone who know how technical analyst work they will believe it. We always find (especially me) the price movement will refer to the previous price movement. I don't know if you just use the fundamental analyst when you start to buy bitcoin, there is many situation where we got a good news and the price bitcoin was not follow what the news tell, even the price just act the opposite. Technical analyst will help you to find a good time to entry at least it will minimize the risk that you will be face.

[pooya87]

i don't really like this type of speculation about the price using the past performances as they are not a guarantee for future trends but on every cycle i keep seeing the same thing repeated and i have already seen 2 of them. both the charts, the market and the market sentiments are exactly the same. predictions coming out from traders on this forum, reddit, tradingview and elsewhere are also pretty much the same as it were on similar times during each of those cycles.
so it is not just some pattern on the charts, it is dozens of factors that are the same as ever so it is a safe bet to say the same trend is going to be repeated too.

When everyone is thinking the same thing (in this case, moon) the opposite often happens. I'd be more comfortable if we had more "Bitcoin is dead" sentiment, like we had in mid-2015. We all know what happened after that.

To me, the March crash had the feel of a capitulation like January 2015, but we never had that long boring despair period that came afterwards. With so many bulls thinking a parabolic bubble is coming soon, I wonder if the market is setting up to disappoint them with a shakeout and months of boring sideways.

another view would be when a lot of people think there is "moon" coming they are going to start buying bitcoin and speed up reaching to the "moon".

as for the "despair period" we already had that during the first half of last year and it was too long that it won't happen anytime soon on those levels. we may see short term despair from some people who lose money but that's about it.
by the way not that many expect THE bull run. there are still a lot of people who are either confused or think we are about to crash. there are still some smaller group who are waiting for the $1000 to come back!

[LogitechMouse]

I know that many of us here are very optimistic with regards to the future of Bitcoin's price and there are many proofs to it already and one is the charts.
Many are saying that history will repeat itself but will it happen again this time? Nobody knows.

I'd like to see the current long term trend of Bitcoin base on the chart to happen again so all of us will be happy but at the same time I'm not removing the fact that it might not repeat this time since anything can happen anytime. Just hold some Bitcoins .

[LUCKMCFLY]

I am not much into following the patterns, but since some patterns are also met in the markets it is very possible, of course, the fact scenarios for those years are very different from the fundamentals of now.


When we see the S2F model of PlanB it is very similar to what it shows in OP.

5 months after each #bitcoin halving
h/t
@burdivelam

Source: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1314160853533569024

This model is one of the ones I like the most, in fact it has an expiration date and that is the best, because it does not become any pre-established tool.

[exstasie]

When everyone is thinking the same thing (in this case, moon) the opposite often happens. I'd be more comfortable if we had more "Bitcoin is dead" sentiment, like we had in mid-2015. We all know what happened after that.

To me, the March crash had the feel of a capitulation like January 2015, but we never had that long boring despair period that came afterwards. With so many bulls thinking a parabolic bubble is coming soon, I wonder if the market is setting up to disappoint them with a shakeout and months of boring sideways.

another view would be when a lot of people think there is "moon" coming they are going to start buying bitcoin and speed up reaching to the "moon".

Could be. I have however had more success being contrarian, and trading against the crowd.

as for the "despair period" we already had that during the first half of last year and it was too long that it won't happen anytime soon on those levels.

Maybe. That's what I was commenting on though. We spent 2-3x as long trading sideways at the bottom in 2015.

I'm not saying things are supposed to play out exactly like 2015. It's just that the fast and volatile reversals seen in December 2018, June 2019, March 2020, and possibly now August 2020 are indicative of a long term triangle to me. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg55282472#msg55282472

If that interpretation is correct, then we've still got another swing down to go. This matches with my feeling that sentiment is a little too bullish for us to go to the moon yet.

[justdimin]

I do think that in the financial world history repeats itself is not a good thing to say. Because in general, things do repeat the results, but the way it happens is almost always different. Just to give an example that everyone can understand, in 2008 there was a global crisis right? In 2020 there is one too? Now history does repeat itself and there is a crisis, but I have to say it is not the same reason and it is not the same path that lead us here, one was mortgages being high leveraged and the other is a pandemic.

Same reasoning stands with every little single small thing, even the same exact chart that resulted with one thing, may not result with same again, but the results could be same from two very different charts.

Unfortunately in bitcoin world or maybe even in crypto world history rarely repeats itself to that magnitude. Of course, there are similar ups and downs in smaller scale but that doesn't mean the same thing will happen.

Let's assume there was something when bitcoin was 3 dollars, and that thing that happened caused it to go to 30 dollars, now that is a 10x increase and it is a great one for you, but let's assume we are at $10k, and same thing is about to happen, do you think it will be 10x once again? Reach $100k?

Obviously that is not the case most of the time, it will just go to $11k-$12k range because the same amount of purchasing makes it go from 3 to 30 also makes it go from 10 to 11 not 100. This is why there are resemblances but nothing that would be exactly the same as it was before.

[hahay]

But the current conditions are very different because of the pandemic, and if later history repeats itself then the cryptocurrency market will really have no effect on the crisis that hit the world. I really hope history repeats itself to prove, if crypto is a safe asset to have and of course, if this 10k is the lowest mark for a bull run it will hit a new ATH but I'm still curious and hard to predict.

[STT]

We're still struggling with the closing highs of 2019 summer prices, it appears near term as indecision but could also represent the highs for the rest of this year.   The larger picture is bullish over years but theres so much space it can still go down for a year more, extra volatility could take us past 200 day average.

[samcrypto]

We're still struggling with the closing highs of 2019 summer prices, it appears near term as indecision but could also represent the highs.   Even though the larger picture is bullish, it can still go down for a year more.

The volume is still low compare to its all time high on 2017 but I also believe that the history will repeat itself and the question is how and when. Bitcoin moves up trend despite of the situation right now, the pandemic helps the adoption with bitcoin and we can see it on volume, plus the good DeFi projects that attract many investors. I’m looking for more good history to repeat, when the pandemic is over and recovery started next year, we will see it.

[gatti]

By checking the graph,it's seems like a history repeat.Now the price of bitcoin was stable at 11300$,even it reduced from 11,500$.This graph are just a analysis to get to know when the price of bitcoin will increase or decrease.But the fact is,it won't predicted accurately by the traders all the time.So holding at oscillation will be better option.

[carlisle1]

By checking the graph,it's seems like a history repeat.Now the price of bitcoin was stable at 11300$,even it reduced from 11,500$.This graph are just a analysis to get to know when the price of bitcoin will increase or decrease.But the fact is,it won't predicted accurately by the traders all the time.So holding at oscillation will be better option.

Not because the movement is almost close meaning there are repeating from the past History because volatile market is near to happen more of this kind.

In the last years we commonly read about this "History Repeating it self" but after a while the movement go against what they expected.
so basically let us monitor the price closely and we will find that they are really different in some ways.